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DYNATYZE
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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
Arizona Cardinals 17 at New England Patriots 20. Final.
Cardinals -1 upset
The verdict · 2020 Week 12
New England Patriots 20, Cardinals 17 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 1:52, 4th and 1, on Zane Gonzalez — 33.1 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:52 · 4th and 1
Zane Gonzalez
Patriots
(1:52) 5-Z.Gonzalez 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.
U 51 ✓
Cardinals closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New England Patriots 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:52, Patriots +33.1% win probability on one snap.
33.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Cam NewtonPatriotsQ4 0:56(:56) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left end pushed ob at NE 46 for 14 yards (48-I.Simmons). PENALTY on ARI-48-I.Simmons, Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact, 15 yards, enforced at NE 46.
26.5pts
Nick FolkPatriotsQ4 0:03(:03) 6-N.Folk 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
23.4pts
What separated them
Throwing the ball
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — -0.04 expected points per dropback, against Patriots at -0.59 expected points per dropback.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Patriots at 2 giveaways.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — -0.06 expected points per snap, against Patriots at -0.23 expected points per snap.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Cardinals owned this one and still lost it — 43% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Patriots at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Cardinalsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on Patriotshigher on Cardinals154 of 167 plays carry both curves
(1:52) 5-Z.Gonzalez 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.
Swing +33.1 for PatriotsExpected points +3.29 for PatriotsThe model had Patriots 17 points higher than the market did.play 158
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:52ARI +33% win prob(1:52) 5-Z.Gonzalez 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.
4th · 0:56NE +27% win prob(:56) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left end pushed ob at NE 46 for 14 yards (48-I.Simmons). PENALTY on ARI-48-I.Simmons, Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact, 15 yards, enforced at NE 46.
4th · 0:03NE +23% win prob(:03) 6-N.Folk 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
4th · 4:37ARI +22% win prob(4:37) 1-C.Newton pass short left intended for 10-D.Byrd INTERCEPTED by 20-D.Kirkpatrick at ARI 40. 20-D.Kirkpatrick to NE 47 for 13 yards (62-J.Thuney).
3rd · 6:29ARI +15% win prob(6:29) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left intended for 10-D.Hopkins INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Phillips (70-A.Butler) at ARI 31. 21-A.Phillips to ARI 31 for no gain.
2nd · 14:21NE +13% win prob(14:21) 28-J.White right tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Nick Folk's 50-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put New England Patriots ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:03Nick Folk·50-yd field goal50-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.CardonaLead never changed again+317–20
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cardinalscategory by categoryPatriots
Cardinals7–0Patriots
298Total yards179
4.3Yards per play3.6
43%Success rate38%
43%Third-down rate40%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
3Explosive plays3
21First downs13
2Sacks taken3
1Turnovers2
The read
Cardinals ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.59 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.06Cardinals: −0.06 expected points added per play
−0.23Patriots: −0.23 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.04Cardinals: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.59Patriots: −0.59 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.10Cardinals: −0.10 expected points added per play
+0.01Patriots: +0.01 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 70 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Patriots’s 50 at 40%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 3, Patriots 3.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NE's early-down pass rate turned over: 60.8% in week 11 against 35.9% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.2 points.
NE's pass rate over expected turned over: −4.7 pts in week 11 against −20.1 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
50 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.5 points.
ARI's pass rate over expected turned over: +8.6 pts in week 11 against −4.5 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
70 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
ARI's early-down pass rate turned over: 74.5% in week 11 against 52.7% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
55 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · +3.4 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.52× that swing) · 20 dropbacks
Patriots12.8%
right on their number · +0.7 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.10× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNE's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 35.9%, 12.4 points below their season mean of 48.3% and 1.1 times their own 11.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Patriots attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Patriots→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Nick Folk+25% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:03) 6-N.Folk 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
Q4 0:03 · Patriots · 4th & 3 at ARI 32 · gained nothing · +1.03 EP · +24.6% win probability
152 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 167 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 167 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 80 yards from the ARI 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NE attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
167 of 167 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
167
EPA per play
-0.08
Success rate
41%
Yards
477
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR32-0.1334%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR32+0.0663%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22-0.1641%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR15-0.4260%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.5414%
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR5+0.1060%
Patriots2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Cardinals0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Cardinals2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
167 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
167 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.0 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 29
Cardinals6Patriots0
Cardinals7Patriots0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Patriots 23 to the Patriots 1
Punt11 plays, from the Patriots 22 to the Patriots 47
Cardinals10Patriots0
Field goal15 plays, from the Cardinals 3 to the Patriots 27
The period ended7 plays, from the Cardinals 46 to the Cardinals 15
2nd quarter37 plays
Cardinals10Patriots6
Cardinals10Patriots7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Cardinals 8 to the Cardinals 7
Punt9 plays, from the Cardinals 21 to the Cardinals 41
Punt6 plays, from the Patriots 14 to the Patriots 29
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldSix linemen, one linebacker and four backsIn the boxNine defenders
Turnover on downs18 plays, from the Cardinals 28 to the Patriots 1
3rd quarter39 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 48
Cardinals10Patriots10
Field goal8 plays, from the Cardinals 39 to the Cardinals 4
Intercepted4 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 32
Cardinals10Patriots16
Cardinals10Patriots17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Cardinals 31 to the Cardinals 1
Punt5 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 28
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 44 to the Patriots 48
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter48 plays
Cardinals16Patriots17
Cardinals17Patriots17
Touchdown21 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Patriots 1
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.0 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Cardinals 42
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, one linebacker and seven backsIn the boxSeven defenders
No good9 plays, from the Patriots 47 to the Patriots 27
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldSix linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Cardinals17Patriots20
Field goal8 plays, from the Patriots 35 to the Cardinals 32
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cardinals -1
Closing total
51
Cardinals moneyline
-115
Patriots moneyline
+104
Cardinals closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 51; the game landed 37 — under by 14.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 50°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the south-west; clear.
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
Cardinals 10 days · Patriots 7 days
Coaches
Kliff Kingsbury vs Bill Belichick
1st · 13:45ARI +13% win prob(13:45) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short left intended for 15-N.Harry INTERCEPTED by 44-M.Golden (58-J.Hicks) at NE 24. 44-M.Golden to NE 23 for 1 yard (72-J.Eluemunor).
4th · 9:50NE +11% win prob(9:50) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right to 85-D.Arnold. PENALTY on NE-30-J.McCourty, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NE 12 - No Play.
