2020 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 29, 2020 · Gillette Stadium

Arizona Cardinals

New England PatriotsWinner

ARI -1 upsetU 51 ✓Cardinals closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New England Patriots 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 1:52, ARI +33% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:52ARI — NE ARI ball · 4th & 1ARI 78%

(1:52) 5-Z.Gonzalez 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:52ARI +33% win prob(1:52) 5-Z.Gonzalez 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.
Q4 · 0:56NE +27% win prob(:56) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left end pushed ob at NE 46 for 14 yards (48-I.Simmons). PENALTY on ARI-48-I.Simmons, Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact, 15 yards, enforced at NE 46.
Q4 · 0:03NE +23% win prob(:03) 6-N.Folk 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.
Q4 · 4:37ARI +22% win prob(4:37) 1-C.Newton pass short left intended for 10-D.Byrd INTERCEPTED by 20-D.Kirkpatrick at ARI 40. 20-D.Kirkpatrick to NE 47 for 13 yards (62-J.Thuney).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cardinals	Patriots
Offensive plays	70	50
Total yards	298 (edge)	179
Yards per play	4.3 (edge)	3.6
Expected points added / play	-0.06 (edge)	-0.23
Success rate	43% (edge)	38%
Dropback rate	56%	40%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.04 (edge)	-0.59
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.10	0.01 (edge)
Third downs	6/14 (edge)	4/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	3
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

23/34, 170 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-2.0 expected points added · +1.4% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Cam NewtonQB

9/18, 84 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-11.5 expected points added · -16.9% completion over expected

Rushing · ARI

Kenyan DrakeRB

22 att, 78 yds, 2 TD

-3.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Damien HarrisRB

14 att, 47 yds, 0 TD

-4.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ARI

DeAndre HopkinsWR

5/7 for 55 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · 0.2 expected points added

Receiving · NE

Jakobi MeyersWR

5/6 for 52 yds, 0 TD

35% of team targets · 3.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 25	4	4	1:22	Interception
2	ARI	NE 23	4	23	1:29	Touchdown
3	NE	NE 22	10	20	4:56	Punt
4	ARI	ARI 3	12	63	5:24	Turnover on downs
5	NE	ARI 46	9	41	2:34	Touchdown
6	ARI	ARI 21	9	19	4:06	Punt
7	NE	NE 14	6	6	3:12	Punt
8	ARI	ARI 28	15	71	6:57	Turnover on downs
9	ARI	ARI 25	8	23	3:17	Defensive touchdown
10	NE	ARI 39	8	35	3:57	Turnover on downs
11	ARI	ARI 25	4	7	1:25	Interception
12	NE	ARI 31	7	31	2:51	Touchdown
13	ARI	ARI 25	5	-6	1:31	Punt
14	NE	NE 44	4	-4	1:38	Punt
15	ARI	ARI 20	17	78	7:19	Touchdown
16	NE	NE 25	7	28	3:35	Interception
17	ARI	NE 47	7	20	2:40	Turnover on downs
18	NE	NE 35	7	18	1:47	Turnover on downs

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cardinals gained 78 scrimmage yards over 17 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyler Murray	23/34	170	0	1	2	-2.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kenyan Drake	22	78	3.5	2	-3.8
Kyler Murray	5	31	6.2	0	0.9
Chase Edmonds	6	29	4.8	0	1.0
Christian Kirk	1	0	0.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
DeAndre Hopkins	5	7	55	21%	0.2
Andy Isabella	4	6	33	18%	0.8
Christian Kirk	3	6	19	18%	0.1
Dan Arnold	1	3	17	9%	0.9
Kenyan Drake	3	4	15	12%	0.7
Chase Edmonds	4	5	14	15%	-1.5
Maxx Williams	2	2	10	6%	-0.3
KeeSean Johnson	1	1	7	3%	0.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jordan Hicks	6	1	0.0	0	1
De'Vondre Campbell	3	2	1.0	0	0
Isaiah Simmons	3	2	1.0	0	0
Patrick Peterson	3	1	0.0	0	0
Haason Reddick	2	1	0.0	0	0
Budda Baker	1	2	0.0	0	0
Dre Kirkpatrick	3	0	0.0	1	1
Markus Golden	2	1	0.0	1	1
Trevon Coley	2	1	1.0	0	0
Devon Kennard	1	1	0.0	0	0

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Cam Newton	9/18	84	0	2	3	-11.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Damien Harris	14	47	3.4	0	-4.0
Cam Newton	9	46	5.1	0	2.5
James White	5	18	3.6	2	4.4
Gunner Olszewski	1	1	1.0	0	-1.5
N'Keal Harry	1	-2	-2.0	0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Jakobi Meyers	5	6	52	35%	3.5
Damiere Byrd	3	8	33	47%	-5.3
N'Keal Harry	0	2	0	12%	-5.6
James White	1	1	-1	6%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Ja'Whaun Bentley	5	8	0.0	0	0
Terez Hall	4	2	0.0	0	0
Kyle Dugger	3	1	0.0	0	0
Stephon Gilmore	4	0	0.0	0	0
John Simon	2	2	0.0	0	0
Adam Butler	1	3	1.0	0	1
Devin McCourty	2	1	0.0	0	0
Lawrence Guy	1	2	0.0	0	0
Adrian Phillips	3	0	0.0	1	1
Deatrich Wise	2	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: ARI -1
Closing total: 51
ARI moneyline: -115
NE moneyline: +104

Cardinals closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 51; the game landed 37 — under by 14.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Gillette Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 52°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: ARI 10 days · NE 7 days
Coaches: Kliff Kingsbury vs Bill Belichick