2020 Week 12 · Wed, Dec 2, 2020 · Heinz Field

Baltimore Ravens

Pittsburgh SteelersWinner

PIT -10.5 no coverU 41.5 ✓Steelers closed -10.5, won by 5 — but didn't cover.

Pittsburgh Steelers 19–14. Biggest swing: Q2 0:03, BAL +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 0:03BAL — PIT BAL ball · 3rd & 1PIT 75%

(:03) (No Huddle) 3-R.Griffin pass incomplete short right to 82-L.Willson (39-M.Fitzpatrick).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 0:03BAL +13% win prob(:03) (No Huddle) 3-R.Griffin pass incomplete short right to 82-L.Willson (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
Q3 · 13:31BAL +11% win prob(13:31) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short middle to 11-C.Claypool (24-M.Peters).
Q1 · 11:44BAL +10% win prob(11:44) (Shotgun) 67-B.Bredeson reported in as eligible. 3-R.Griffin to BAL 21 for -4 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by PIT-98-V.Williams at BAL 22.
Q1 · 7:04BAL +9% win prob(7:04) (Shotgun) 3-R.Griffin pass short right intended for 11-J.Proche INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Haden [90-T.Watt] at BAL 14. 23-J.Haden for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Steelers
Offensive plays	49	70
Total yards	219	335 (edge)
Yards per play	4.5	4.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.38	-0.10 (edge)
Success rate	31%	47% (edge)
Dropback rate	45%	73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.66	-0.09 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.16	-0.13 (edge)
Third downs	3/13	6/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	4
First downs gained on snaps	9	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	0 (edge)
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Steelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.38.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

36/51, 266 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-4.7 expected points added · +2.7% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Trace McSorleyQB

2/6, 77 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

2.7 expected points added · -35.7% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Robert GriffinQB

7 att, 68 yds, 0 TD

1.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PIT

Benny SnellRB

16 att, 60 yds, 0 TD

-1.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Marquise BrownWR

4/8 for 85 yds, 1 TD

44% of team targets · 3.6 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

Eric EbronTE

7/11 for 54 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · -2.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BAL	BAL 35	5	5	2:18	Punt
2	PIT	PIT 18	4	5	0:58	Punt
3	PIT	BAL 25	2	-2	0:04	Fumble
4	PIT	BAL 22	5	20	3:18	Interception
5	BAL	BAL 6	3	6	1:25	Defensive touchdown
6	BAL	BAL 33	5	3	2:26	Punt
7	BAL	PIT 16	5	21	2:24	Touchdown
8	PIT	PIT 20	14	73	5:17	Turnover on downs
9	BAL	BAL 25	4	3	2:09	Punt
10	PIT	PIT 26	13	65	5:14	Turnover on downs
11	BAL	BAL 25	12	69	4:27	End of half
12	PIT	PIT 19	5	8	1:34	Turnover on downs
13	BAL	BAL 37	7	19	4:23	Punt
14	PIT	PIT 4	6	19	3:36	Punt
15	BAL	BAL 20	4	-5	2:15	Punt
16	PIT	PIT 39	13	61	4:52	Touchdown
17	BAL	BAL 25	5	8	1:50	Punt
18	PIT	PIT 21	8	35	4:09	Punt
19	BAL	BAL 14	8	14	2:08	Punt
20	PIT	PIT 30	4	5	1:43	Punt
21	BAL	BAL 16	3	79	0:32	Touchdown
22	PIT	PIT 13	9	43	2:58	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Ravens gained 79 scrimmage yards over 3 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Trace McSorley	2/6	77	1	0	0	2.7
Robert Griffin	7/12	33	0	1	3	-17.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Robert Griffin	7	68	9.7	0	1.3
Justice Hill	9	35	3.9	0	-2.4
Trace McSorley	3	16	5.3	0	2.0
Gus Edwards	9	10	1.1	1	-4.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marquise Brown	4	8	85	1	44%	3.6
Devin Duvernay	3	3	20	0	17%	-1.0
Justice Hill	2	2	5	0	11%	-1.4
Luke Willson	0	2	0	0	11%	-4.8
James Proche	0	1	0	0	6%	-6.0
Dez Bryant	0	2	0	0	11%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Chuck Clark	4	8	0	0
Patrick Queen	6	3	0	0
Marlon Humphrey	6	1	0	2
L.J. Fort	3	3	0	0
Marcus Peters	6	0	0	2
DeShon Elliott	4	2	0	0
Tramon Williams	3	2	0	0
Jaylon Ferguson	2	2	0	0
Tyus Bowser	0	3	1	1
Jimmy Smith	2	0	0	0

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	36/51	266	1	1	0	-4.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Benny Snell	16	60	3.8	-1.8
Anthony McFarland	3	9	3.0	-0.6
Ben Roethlisberger	1	-1	-1.0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Eric Ebron	7	11	54	0	22%	-2.6
Chase Claypool	6	9	52	0	18%	-2.0
Diontae Johnson	8	13	46	0	25%	-0.4
JuJu Smith-Schuster	8	9	37	1	18%	0.3
Benny Snell	3	4	33	0	8%	-2.2
James Washington	2	3	19	0	6%	0.5
Anthony McFarland	1	1	17	0	2%	1.1
Ray-Ray McCloud	1	1	8	0	2%	0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Robert Spillane	6	0	0.0	0
T.J. Watt	3	2	2.0	0
Terrell Edmunds	3	1	0.0	0
Bud Dupree	3	0	0.0	0
Minkah Fitzpatrick	3	0	0.0	2
Cameron Heyward	1	1	1.0	0
Mike Hilton	2	0	0.0	0
Henry Mondeaux	1	1	0.0	0
Marcus Allen	1	1	0.0	0
Vince Williams	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PIT -10.5
Closing total: 41.5
BAL moneyline: +416
PIT moneyline: -518

Steelers closed -10.5, won by 5 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 41.5; the game landed 33 — under by 8.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Heinz Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 36°F, wind 14 mph
Referee: Ronald Torbert
Rest: BAL 10 days · PIT 10 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Mike Tomlin

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.