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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:47 AM ET · 16 to play
Baltimore Ravens 14 at Pittsburgh Steelers 19. Final.
Steelers -10.5 no coverU 41.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 12
Pittsburgh Steelers 19, Ravens 14 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 0:03, 3rd and 1, on Robert Griffin — 13.3 win-probability points to the Steelers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 0:03 · 3rd and 1
Robert Griffin
Steelers
(:03) (No Huddle) 3-R.Griffin pass incomplete short right to 82-L.Willson (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
Steelers closed -10.5, won by 5 — but didn't cover.
Pittsburgh Steelers 19–14. Biggest swing: Q2 0:03, Steelers +13.3% win probability on one snap.
13.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetSteelersQ1 11:44(11:44) (Shotgun) 67-B.Bredeson reported in as eligible. 3-R.Griffin to BAL 21 for -4 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by PIT-98-V.Williams at BAL 22.
9.7pts
Ben RoethlisbergerRavensQ3 13:31(13:31) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short middle to 11-C.Claypool (24-M.Peters).
11.4pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Steelers won this one — 47% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Ravens at 31% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Steelers won this one — -0.09 expected points per dropback, against Ravens at -0.66 expected points per dropback.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Steelers won this one — 6 of 14 on third down, against Ravens at 3 of 13 on third down.
Steelersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Steelers won this one — -0.10 expected points per snap, against Ravens at -0.38 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 12.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 28 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Ravens.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Ravens156 of 165 plays carry both curves
(:03) (No Huddle) 3-R.Griffin pass incomplete short right to 82-L.Willson (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
Swing +13.3 for SteelersExpected points +3.73 for SteelersThe model had Ravens 15 points higher than the market did.play 81
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 0:03BAL +13% win prob(:03) (No Huddle) 3-R.Griffin pass incomplete short right to 82-L.Willson (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
3rd · 13:31BAL +11% win prob(13:31) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short middle to 11-C.Claypool (24-M.Peters).
1st · 11:44BAL +10% win prob(11:44) (Shotgun) 67-B.Bredeson reported in as eligible. 3-R.Griffin to BAL 21 for -4 yards. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by PIT-98-V.Williams at BAL 22.
1st · 7:04BAL +9% win prob(7:04) (Shotgun) 3-R.Griffin pass short right intended for 11-J.Proche INTERCEPTED by 23-J.Haden [90-T.Watt] at BAL 14. 23-J.Haden for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:32BAL +9% win prob(8:32) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle intended for 24-B.Snell INTERCEPTED by 54-T.Bowser [45-J.Ferguson] at BAL -5. 54-T.Bowser to BAL 6 for 11 yards (71-M.Feiler).
2nd · 1:08PIT +8% win prob(1:08) (Shotgun) 43-J.Hill right tackle to PIT 4 for 19 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chris Boswell's 25-yard field goal with 11:52 left in the 2nd put Pittsburgh Steelers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:04Joe Haden·14-yd defence TD14-yard touchdownthe defence scored itthe defence scored it · kick no good, wide right+60–6
Steelers ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.66 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.38Ravens: −0.38 expected points added per play
−0.10Steelers: −0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.66Ravens: −0.66 expected points added per play
−0.09Steelers: −0.09 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.16Ravens: −0.16 expected points added per play
−0.13Steelers: −0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 49 snaps at a 45% dropback rate against Steelers’s 70 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 3, Steelers 5.
NoteSteelers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.38.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 12Against their seasonOver Expected
BAL's pass rate over expected, −27.4 pts, is past their previous low of −23.9 pts in week 8 — the lowest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
2.2 times their own weekly swing below their number.
49 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
high through week 12Against their seasonOver Expected
PIT's pass rate over expected, +21.4 pts, is past their previous high of +14.4 pts in week 8 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
70 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32 pts to 34 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.8 vs their 17.6%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−0.62× that swing) · 51 dropbacks
Steelers22.7%
right on their number · −0.4 vs their 23.1%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.05× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteBAL's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -27.4 pts, 16.9 points below their season mean of -10.5 pts and 2.2 times their own 7.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Baltimore Ravens
49 dressed · 6 inactive · 4 never used
72Ben PowersG · Every snap100%53 snaps
78Orlando BrownT · Every snap100%53 snaps
77Bradley BozemanG · Every snap100%53 snaps
63Trystan Colon-CastilloC · Every snap100%53 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
S.Koch punts+15% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(4:41) 4-S.Koch punts 58 yards to PIT 16, Center-60-N.Moore. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 16 for no gain (33-D.Harris). FUMBLES (33-D.Harris), RECOVERED by BAL-41-A.Levine at PIT 16.
Q1 4:41 · Ravens · 4th & 17 at BAL 26 · gained nothing · +6.61 EP · +15.4% win probability
154 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 165 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 165 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 79 yards from the BAL 21 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
165 of 165 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
165
EPA per play
-0.12
Success rate
40%
Yards
553
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR57-0.0274%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35-0.0254%
Steelers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR7+0.20100%
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR3——
Ravens1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR3——
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR2——
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Ravens1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Steelers2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
165 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
165 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 35 to the Ravens 41
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 18 to the Steelers 23
Offense on the fieldSix linemen, one back, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost1 play
Drive ended2 plays, from the Ravens 22 to the Ravens 20
Intercepted3 plays, from the Ravens 6 to the Ravens 1
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.0 seconds
Ravens0Steelers6
Touchdown3 plays, from the Ravens 6 to the Ravens 12
Punt6 plays
Ravens6Steelers6
Ravens7Steelers6
Touchdown7 plays, from the Steelers 16 to the Steelers 1
The period ended6 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Steelers 31
2nd quarter42 plays
Ravens7Steelers9
Field goal9 plays, from the Steelers 48 to the Ravens 5
Punt4 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 31
Ravens7Steelers12
Field goal13 plays, from the Steelers 26 to the Ravens 8
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, two linebackers and seven backsIn the boxFive defenders
FormationJumboOffense on the fieldSix linemen, one back and three tight endsDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxTen defendersRushing the passerEightPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
The period ended16 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Steelers 1
3rd quarter34 plays
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Steelers 19 to the Ravens 37
Punt9 plays, from the Ravens 37 to the Steelers 30
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 4 to the Steelers 23
Punt4 plays
The period ended9 plays, from the Steelers 39 to the Ravens 29
4th quarter49 plays
Ravens7Steelers18
Ravens7Steelers19
Touchdown5 plays, from the Ravens 22 to the Ravens 1
Punt7 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 33
Punt8 plays, from the Steelers 21 to the Ravens 44
Punt8 plays, from the Ravens 14 to the Ravens 28
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 30 to the Steelers 35
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Ravens13Steelers19
Ravens14Steelers19
Touchdown4 plays, from the Ravens 16 to the Ravens 30
The period ended13 plays, from the Steelers 13 to the Ravens 44
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Steelers -10.5
Closing total
41.5
Ravens moneyline
+416
Steelers moneyline
-518
Steelers closed -10.5, won by 5 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 41.5; the game landed 33 — under by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Heinz Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 38°F at kickoff; breezy at 11 mph out of the west; clear.
Referee
Ronald Torbert
Rest
Ravens 10 days · Steelers 10 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Mike Tomlin
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
2nd · 3:47PIT +8% win prob(3:47) (Shotgun) 3-R.Griffin right guard to PIT 37 for 39 yards (23-J.Haden).
1st · 4:41PIT +8% win prob(4:41) 4-S.Koch punts 58 yards to PIT 16, Center-60-N.Moore. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 16 for no gain (33-D.Harris). FUMBLES (33-D.Harris), RECOVERED by BAL-41-A.Levine at PIT 16.
