2020 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 29, 2020 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Carolina Panthers

Minnesota VikingsWinner

MIN -3 no coverO 50 ✓DomeVikings closed -3, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Minnesota Vikings 28–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:06, CAR +41% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:06CAR — MIN CAR ball · 2nd & 10CAR 53%

(:06) 4-J.Slye 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:06CAR +41% win prob(:06) 4-J.Slye 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton.
Q4 · 2:18MIN +28% win prob(2:18) 3-J.Charlton punts 37 yards to MIN 14, Center-44-J.Jansen. 12-C.Beebe MUFFS catch, touched at MIN 14, RECOVERED by CAR-38-M.Hartsfield at MIN 9. 38-M.Hartsfield to MIN 9 for no gain (12-C.Beebe).
Q3 · 14:01CAR +21% win prob(14:01) 33-D.Cook left guard to MIN 29 for 4 yards (93-B.Roy, 21-J.Chinn). FUMBLES (21-J.Chinn), RECOVERED by CAR-21-J.Chinn at MIN 28. 21-J.Chinn for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN-33-D.Cook was injured during the play.
Q3 · 14:09CAR +21% win prob(14:09) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at MIN 18 for -9 yards (92-Z.Kerr). FUMBLES (92-Z.Kerr) [92-Z.Kerr], RECOVERED by CAR-21-J.Chinn at MIN 17. 21-J.Chinn for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	Vikings
Offensive plays	63	70
Total yards	374	390 (edge)
Yards per play	5.9 (edge)	5.6
Expected points added / play	0.03 (edge)	-0.01
Success rate	49%	51% (edge)
Dropback rate	59%	70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.10	0.18 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.07 (edge)	-0.44
Third downs	6/14	6/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	20	26 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	2
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

34/45, 307 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

6.5 expected points added · +11.8% completion over expected

Passing · CAR

Teddy BridgewaterQB

19/36, 267 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

3.7 expected points added · -9.5% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Dalvin CookRB

18 att, 61 yds, 0 TD

-9.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Mike DavisRB

15 att, 55 yds, 0 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

Robbie ChosenWR

4/7 for 94 yds, 1 TD

22% of team targets · 8.9 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Olabisi JohnsonWR

7/7 for 74 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 6.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 25	6	14	1:48	Punt
2	MIN	MIN 32	14	63	7:38	Touchdown
3	CAR	CAR 25	8	24	2:12	Punt
4	MIN	MIN 8	4	9	1:19	Punt
5	CAR	CAR 35	11	53	5:13	Interception
6	MIN	MIN 7	7	18	4:25	Punt
7	CAR	CAR 19	12	81	5:33	Touchdown
8	MIN	MIN 25	12	51	1:52	Turnover on downs
9	MIN	MIN 25	4	-8	0:59	Defensive touchdown
10	MIN	MIN 25	2	3	0:10	Defensive touchdown
11	MIN	MIN 25	7	20	2:10	Punt
12	CAR	CAR 25	11	63	6:20	Turnover on downs
13	MIN	MIN 22	12	82	5:34	Turnover on downs
14	CAR	CAR 25	10	58	3:16	Turnover on downs
15	MIN	MIN 25	13	77	6:00	Touchdown
16	CAR	CAR 25	9	24	3:21	Punt
17	CAR	MIN 9	4	6	0:19	Turnover on downs
18	MIN	MIN 25	9	75	1:05	Touchdown
19	CAR	CAR 13	6	51	0:45	Turnover on downs
20	MIN	MIN 43	1	0	0:01	End of game

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 82 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Teddy Bridgewater	19/36	267	1	1	0	3.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Mike Davis	15	55	3.7	0.4
Rodney Smith	7	18	2.6	-2.9
Trenton Cannon	3	17	5.7	0.1
Teddy Bridgewater	2	12	6.0	0.7
Curtis Samuel	1	5	5.0	0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Robbie Chosen	4	7	94	1	22%	8.9
Curtis Samuel	5	5	72	0	16%	2.7
D.J. Moore	4	9	61	0	28%	1.5
Mike Davis	3	6	24	0	19%	-4.9
Chris Manhertz	1	1	11	0	3%	0.8
Ian Thomas	1	2	4	0	6%	-1.0
Trenton Cannon	1	1	1	0	3%	-1.3
Rodney Smith	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jeremy Chinn	7	6	0.0	0
Zach Kerr	3	5	1.0	1
Rasul Douglas	6	1	0.0	0
Jermaine Carter	3	4	0.0	0
Corn Elder	4	1	0.0	0
Brian Burns	2	3	0.0	0
Tre Boston	3	2	0.0	0
Shaq Thompson	2	1	0.0	0
Juston Burris	2	1	0.0	0
Derrick Brown	1	1	0.0	0

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	34/45	307	3	0	2	6.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Dalvin Cook	18	61	3.4	-9.4
Kirk Cousins	3	19	6.3	2.3
C.J. Ham	1	10	10.0	0.6
Alexander Mattison	2	6	3.0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Olabisi Johnson	7	7	74	0	16%	6.0
Justin Jefferson	7	13	70	2	30%	3.3
Kyle Rudolph	7	8	68	0	19%	2.3
Chad Beebe	7	7	63	1	16%	6.0
Dalvin Cook	4	4	21	0	9%	-0.2
Brandon Dillon	1	1	6	0	2%	-0.4
Tyler Conklin	1	2	5	0	5%	-0.3
Tajae Sharpe	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Eric Kendricks	5	6	1	1
Anthony Harris	2	9	0	0
Eric Wilson	4	5	0	0
Harrison Smith	2	4	0	0
Jeff Gladney	3	2	0	0
Cameron Dantzler	2	2	0	1
Kris Boyd	3	0	0	0
Troy Dye	1	2	0	0
C.J. Ham	2	0	0	0
Jalyn Holmes	1	1	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIN -3
Closing total: 50
CAR moneyline: +131
MIN moneyline: -145

Vikings closed -3, won by 1 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 50; the game landed 55 — over by 5.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Brad Rogers
Rest: CAR 7 days · MIN 7 days
Coaches: Matt Rhule vs Mike Zimmer