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2020 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 29, 2020 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
PanthersCarolina27
BY 1final margin
VikingsMinnesota28
Carolina Panthers 27 at Minnesota Vikings 28. Final.
Vikings -3 no coverO 50 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 12
Minnesota Vikings 28, Panthers 27 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:06, 2nd and 10, on Joey Slye — 41.0 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:06 · 2nd and 10
Joey Slye
Vikings
(:06) 4-J.Slye 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton.
Dome
Vikings closed -3, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Minnesota Vikings 28–27 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:06, Vikings +41.0% win probability on one snap.
41.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Dalvin CookPanthersQ3 14:01(14:01) 33-D.Cook left guard to MIN 29 for 4 yards (93-B.Roy, 21-J.Chinn). FUMBLES (21-J.Chinn), RECOVERED by CAR-21-J.Chinn at MIN 28. 21-J.Chinn for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN-33-D.Cook was injured during the play.
21.2pts
Unnamed on the sheetPanthersQ4 2:18(2:18) 3-J.Charlton punts 37 yards to MIN 14, Center-44-J.Jansen. 12-C.Beebe MUFFS catch, touched at MIN 14, RECOVERED by CAR-38-M.Hartsfield at MIN 9. 38-M.Hartsfield to MIN 9 for no gain (12-C.Beebe).
28.3pts
What separated them
Red zone
Vikings won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Panthers at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — -0.07 expected points per carry, against Vikings at -0.44 expected points per carry.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Vikings at 4 chunk plays.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Vikings at 2 giveaways.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Panthers175 of 189 plays carry both curves
(:06) 4-J.Slye 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton.
Swing +41.0 for VikingsExpected points +1.94 for VikingsThe model had Vikings 3 points higher than the market did.play 187
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:06CAR +41% win prob(:06) 4-J.Slye 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton.
4th · 2:18MIN +28% win prob(2:18) 3-J.Charlton punts 37 yards to MIN 14, Center-44-J.Jansen. 12-C.Beebe MUFFS catch, touched at MIN 14, RECOVERED by CAR-38-M.Hartsfield at MIN 9. 38-M.Hartsfield to MIN 9 for no gain (12-C.Beebe).
3rd · 14:01CAR +21% win prob(14:01) 33-D.Cook left guard to MIN 29 for 4 yards (93-B.Roy, 21-J.Chinn). FUMBLES (21-J.Chinn), RECOVERED by CAR-21-J.Chinn at MIN 28. 21-J.Chinn for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN-33-D.Cook was injured during the play.
3rd · 14:09CAR +21% win prob(14:09) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at MIN 18 for -9 yards (92-Z.Kerr). FUMBLES (92-Z.Kerr) [92-Z.Kerr], RECOVERED by CAR-21-J.Chinn at MIN 17. 21-J.Chinn for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:50MIN +20% win prob(:50) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 12-C.Beebe for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 2:00MIN +19% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chad Beebe's 10-yard touchdown catch with 0:50 left in the 4th put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Vikings ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.44 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.03Panthers: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.01Vikings: −0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.10Panthers: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.18Vikings: +0.18 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.07Panthers: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.44Vikings: −0.44 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 63 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Vikings’s 70 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 4, Vikings 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.9 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.83× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Vikings8.1%
right on their number · −3.1 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.41× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 69.1%, 17.7 points above their season mean of 51.4% and 1.3 times their own 13.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Joey Slye−38% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:06) 4-J.Slye 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton.
Q4 0:06 · Panthers · 2nd & 10 at MIN 36 · gained nothing · -1.94 EP · −38.1% win probability
173 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 189 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 189 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was CAR moving 81 yards from the CAR 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
189 of 189 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
189
EPA per play
-0.02
Success rate
43%
Yards
763
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.1464%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR20-0.1075%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.1638%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR15+0.0047%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.3579%
Vikings0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR13+0.6392%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-1.7517%
Panthers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR4——
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Panthers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Panthers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
189 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
189 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 39
Panthers0Vikings6
Panthers0Vikings7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Vikings 32 to the Panthers 12
Punt8 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 49
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 8 to the Vikings 17
The period ended6 plays, from the Panthers 35 to the Vikings 35
2nd quarter45 plays
Intercepted6 plays, from the Vikings 22 to the Vikings 11
Punt8 plays, from the Vikings 7 to the Vikings 20
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Panthers6Vikings7
Panthers7Vikings7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Panthers 19 to the Vikings 40
Panthers7Vikings10
Field goal18 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Panthers 29
3rd quarter41 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSix
Panthers13Vikings10
Touchdown4 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 27
Panthers14Vikings10
Offense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defenders
Panthers20Vikings10
Touchdown2 plays
Panthers21Vikings10
Punt8 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 45
No good12 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Vikings 10
The period ended13 plays, from the Vikings 22 to the Panthers 7
4th quarter63 plays
Panthers21Vikings13
Field goal3 plays
Panthers24Vikings13
Field goal12 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Vikings 22
Panthers24Vikings19
Panthers24Vikings21
Touchdown14 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Panthers 10
Punt9 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Vikings 47
Panthers27Vikings21
Field goal6 plays, from the Vikings 9 to the Vikings 3
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo tight ends and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.1 seconds
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo tight ends and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Panthers27Vikings27
Panthers27Vikings28
Touchdown10 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Panthers 10
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
No good7 plays, from the Panthers 13 to the Vikings 36
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Vikings -3
Closing total
50
Panthers moneyline
+131
Vikings moneyline
-145
Vikings closed -3, won by 1 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 50; the game landed 55 — over by 5.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Brad Rogers
Rest
Panthers 7 days · Vikings 7 days
Coaches
Matt Rhule vs Mike Zimmer
(2:00) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short middle to 11-R.Anderson for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:03MIN +17% win prob(1:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 82-K.Rudolph to CAR 10 for 25 yards (21-J.Chinn). Penalty on CAR-56-J.Carter, Illegal Contact, declined.
4th · 0:21MIN +15% win prob(:21) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 11-R.Anderson to MIN 36 for 12 yards (27-C.Dantzler).
