2020 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 29, 2020 · Lambeau Field

Chicago Bears

Green Bay PackersWinner

GB -7.5 ✓O 44 ✓Packers closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 16.

Green Bay Packers 41–25. Biggest swing: Q1 6:50, GB +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 6:50CHI — GB CHI ball · 2nd & 7GB 82%

(6:50) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery up the middle to GB 8 for 57 yards (23-J.Alexander; 20-K.King).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 6:50GB +8% win prob(6:50) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery up the middle to GB 8 for 57 yards (23-J.Alexander; 20-K.King).
Q2 · 12:31CHI +5% win prob(12:31) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right intended for 11-D.Mooney INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Savage at GB -7. Touchback.
Q1 · 12:19GB +5% win prob(12:19) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 13-A.Lazard to CHI 39 for 8 yards (24-B.Skrine; 33-J.Johnson).
Q1 · 11:02GB +4% win prob(11:02) 33-A.Jones up the middle to CHI 25 for 9 yards (24-B.Skrine).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bears	Packers
Offensive plays	66	66
Total yards	352	393 (edge)
Yards per play	5.3	6.0 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.04	0.34 (edge)
Success rate	48%	50% (edge)
Dropback rate	77%	47%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.04	0.51 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.29 (edge)	0.19
Third downs	4/10	6/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	9 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	26	27 (edge)
Sacks taken	3	0 (edge)
Turnovers	3	0 (edge)

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.34 expected points added per play vs 0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CHI

Mitchell TrubiskyQB

26/46, 242 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

-2.3 expected points added · -5.1% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

21/29, 211 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

15.3 expected points added · +5.5% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

David MontgomeryRB

11 att, 103 yds, 0 TD

6.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

17 att, 90 yds, 0 TD

3.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

Allen RobinsonWR

8/13 for 74 yds, 2 TD

30% of team targets · 3.8 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Robert TonyanTE

5/5 for 67 yds, 1 TD

17% of team targets · 7.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	GB	GB 25	16	75	7:38	Touchdown
2	CHI	CHI 32	7	59	2:08	Turnover on downs
3	GB	GB 25	11	60	5:19	Touchdown
4	CHI	CHI 21	6	46	2:31	Interception
5	GB	GB 20	14	75	7:50	Touchdown
6	CHI	CHI 25	4	-1	1:23	Defensive touchdown
7	CHI	CHI 13	16	85	2:52	Touchdown
8	GB	GB 35	2	3	0:19	End of half
9	CHI	CHI 25	6	10	2:31	Punt
10	GB	GB 18	6	16	2:54	Punt
11	CHI	CHI 26	3	-1	0:50	Interception
12	GB	GB 47	5	53	2:15	Touchdown
13	CHI	CHI 25	5	0	0:21	Punt
14	GB	GB 34	10	66	4:57	Touchdown
15	CHI	CHI 35	15	70	4:24	Touchdown
16	GB	GB 25	7	15	3:11	Punt
17	CHI	CHI 18	16	84	5:16	Touchdown
18	GB	CHI 47	9	30	3:21	End of game

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 85 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mitchell Trubisky	26/46	242	3	2	3	-2.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
David Montgomery	11	103	9.4	6.1
Mitchell Trubisky	3	10	3.3	-0.8
Cordarrelle Patterson	2	8	4.0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Allen Robinson	8	13	74	2	30%	3.8
David Montgomery	5	6	40	1	14%	4.6
Darnell Mooney	3	9	34	0	20%	-5.4
Jimmy Graham	3	4	32	0	9%	1.8
Anthony Miller	3	6	28	0	14%	1.2
Riley Ridley	2	2	16	0	5%	1.6
Ryan Nall	1	1	10	0	2%	1.8
Cole Kmet	1	3	8	0	7%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Buster Skrine	10	3	1
Danny Trevathan	8	2	0
Kyle Fuller	5	3	0
Eddie Jackson	3	1	1
Robert Quinn	3	1	0
Jaylon Johnson	1	3	1
Tashaun Gipson	3	1	0
Brent Urban	1	1	0
Mario Edwards	2	0	0
Anthony Miller	1	0	0

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	21/29	211	4	0	0	15.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Aaron Jones	17	90	5.3	0	3.6
Jamaal Williams	17	73	4.3	1	2.6
Aaron Rodgers	2	12	6.0	0	0.4
Equanimeous St. Brown	1	7	7.0	0	0.5
Tim Boyle	2	0	0.0	0	-3.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Robert Tonyan	5	5	67	1	17%	7.1
Davante Adams	6	9	61	1	31%	4.1
Equanimeous St. Brown	2	2	39	0	7%	3.6
Allen Lazard	4	6	23	1	21%	1.3
Marcedes Lewis	2	4	16	1	14%	0.8
Jace Sternberger	1	1	5	0	3%	-0.1
Aaron Jones	1	2	0	0	7%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Raven Greene	3	4	0.0	1
Adrian Amos	6	1	0.0	0
Jaire Alexander	5	1	0.0	0
Christian Kirksey	2	3	0.0	1
Will Redmond	4	0	0.0	0
Kevin King	3	1	0.0	3
Billy Winn	1	2	0.0	0
Preston Smith	2	1	1.0	0
Oren Burks	1	1	0.0	0
Vernon Scott	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: GB -7.5
Closing total: 44
CHI moneyline: +293
GB moneyline: -346

Packers closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 16.

Total closed 44; the game landed 66 — over by 22.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lambeau Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 37°F, wind 13 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: CHI 13 days · GB 7 days
Coaches: Matt Nagy vs Matt LaFleur

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.