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2020 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 29, 2020 · TIAA Bank Stadium
Final
BrownsCleveland27
BY 2final margin
JaguarsJacksonville25
Cleveland Browns 27 at Jacksonville Jaguars 25. Final.
Browns -7.5 no coverO 48.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 12
Cleveland Browns 27, Jaguars 25 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q2 4:25, 1st and 10, on Collin Johnson — 14.7 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 4:25 · 1st and 10
Collin Johnson
Jaguars
(4:25) 2-M.Glennon pass deep left to 19-C.Johnson for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Browns closed -7.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Cleveland Browns 27–25 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 4:25, Jaguars +14.7% win probability on one snap.
14.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Harrison BryantJaguarsQ3 15:00(15:00) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 88-H.Bryant to CLE 38 for 13 yards (47-J.Schobert). FUMBLES (47-J.Schobert), RECOVERED by JAX-42-A.Wingard at CLE 47. 42-A.Wingard ran ob at CLE 30 for 17 yards (82-R.Higgins).
11.0pts
James RobinsonJaguarsQ4 2:22(2:22) (Shotgun) 30-J.Robinson up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.0pts
What separated them
Red zone
Browns won this one — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Jaguars at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Browns at 1 giveaway.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Browns won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Jaguars at 7 chunk plays.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Browns won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jaguars at 48% of snaps stayed on schedule.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 18.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Browns163 of 173 plays carry both curves
(4:25) 2-M.Glennon pass deep left to 19-C.Johnson for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +14.7 for JaguarsExpected points +4.40 for JaguarsThe model had Jaguars 22 points higher than the market did.play 63
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 4:25JAX +15% win prob(4:25) 2-M.Glennon pass deep left to 19-C.Johnson for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 15:00CLE +11% win prob(15:00) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 88-H.Bryant to CLE 38 for 13 yards (47-J.Schobert). FUMBLES (47-J.Schobert), RECOVERED by JAX-42-A.Wingard at CLE 47. 42-A.Wingard ran ob at CLE 30 for 17 yards (82-R.Higgins).
4th · 2:22JAX +11% win prob(2:22) (Shotgun) 30-J.Robinson up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:37JAX +10% win prob(1:37) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 24-N.Chubb to CLE 48 for 13 yards (47-J.Schobert). JAX-40-B.Watson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
4th · 2:14CLE +8% win prob(Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 2-M.Glennon pass to 19-C.Johnson is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.
3rd · 8:56JAX +8% win prob(8:56) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 12-K.Hodge ran ob at JAX 34 for 10 yards.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cody Parkey's 45-yard field goal with 6:50 left in the 3rd put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:41Aldrick Rosas·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+30–3
4th2:22James Robinson·4-yd TD run4-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+627–25
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Brownscategory by categoryJaguars
Browns7–2Jaguars
462Total yards375
7.6Yards per play6.1
52%Success rate48%
50%Third-down rate42%
3Red-zone touchdowns2
9Explosive plays7
26First downs22
2Sacks taken0
1Turnovers0
The read
Browns ahead 7–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Jaguars, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.21Browns: +0.21 expected points added per play
+0.14Jaguars: +0.14 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.22Browns: +0.22 expected points added per play
+0.08Jaguars: +0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.19Browns: +0.19 expected points added per play
+0.24Jaguars: +0.24 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 61 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 61 at 61%. Red-zone trips: Browns 4, Jaguars 4.
NoteBrowns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs 0.14.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
JAX's pass rate over expected turned over: +3.9 pts in week 11 against −7.8 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points.
CLE's sack or hit rate turned over: 27.5% in week 11 against 5.4% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 4.2 of their own weekly swings across the two.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.3 points.
CLE's pass rate over expected turned over: −13.3 pts in week 11 against +3.0 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 16 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −5.9 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−1.10× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Jaguars6.3%
inside their normal wobble · −7.0 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.95× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteJAX's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -7.8 pts, 8.1 points below their season mean of 0.3 pts and 1.5 times their own 5.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Glennon pass+16% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(4:25) 2-M.Glennon pass deep left to 19-C.Johnson for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 4:25 · Jaguars · 1st & 10 at CLE 46 · gained 46 · +4.40 EP · +16.0% win probability
161 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 173 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 173 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 90 yards from the CLE 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
173 of 173 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
173
EPA per play
+0.15
Success rate
46%
Yards
834
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46+0.1167%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23+0.2457%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR19+0.5542%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR15-0.2147%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.3045%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Browns1 RB, 4 TE, 0 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
173 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
173 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 43
Punt4 plays, from the Browns 8 to the Browns 9
Browns0Jaguars3
Field goal7 plays, from midfield to the Browns 36
Browns6Jaguars3
Browns7Jaguars3
Touchdown7 plays, from the Browns 45 to the Jaguars 5
The period ended9 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Browns 16
2nd quarter51 plays
Browns7Jaguars6
Field goal6 plays, from the Browns 9 to the Browns 6
Browns10Jaguars6
Field goal15 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Jaguars 5
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.2 seconds
Browns10Jaguars12
Browns10Jaguars13
Touchdown7 plays, from the Jaguars 23 to the Browns 46
Browns16Jaguars13
Browns17Jaguars13
Touchdown12 plays, from the Browns 16 to the Jaguars 9
No good10 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Browns 36
3rd quarter36 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
Fumble lost2 plays
Browns17Jaguars19
Touchdown8 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Browns 2
Browns20Jaguars19
Field goal11 plays, from the Browns 36 to the Jaguars 26
Punt8 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Browns 46
The period ended7 plays, from the Browns 10 to the Jaguars 7
4th quarter50 plays
Browns26Jaguars19
Browns27Jaguars19
Touchdown4 plays, from the Jaguars 3 to the Jaguars 1
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Browns 48
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Browns 2 to the Jaguars 22
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Browns27Jaguars25
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Touchdown15 plays, from the Jaguars 22 to the Browns 4
The period ended13 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 48
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Browns -7.5
Closing total
48.5
Browns moneyline
-334
Jaguars moneyline
+284
Browns closed -7.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 52 — over by 3.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 70°F at kickoff; still at 3 mph out of the north-west; overcast.
Referee
Jerome Boger
Rest
Browns 7 days · Jaguars 7 days
Coaches
Kevin Stefanski vs Doug Marrone
4th · 14:20JAX +7% win prob(14:20) 24-N.Chubb right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:43JAX +7% win prob(3:43) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon sacked at CLE 34 for -10 yards (sack split by 54-O.Vernon and 94-A.Clayborn). PENALTY on CLE-54-O.Vernon, Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact, 12 yards, enforced at CLE 24 - No Play.
