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2020 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 29, 2020 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Cleveland BrownsWinner

27

Jacksonville Jaguars

25

CLE -7.5 no coverO 48.5 ✓

Cleveland Browns 27–25 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q2 4:25, JAX +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

0255075100End Q1End Q2End Q3JAX ↑CLE ↓
Q2 · 4:25CLE — JAX JAX ball · 1st & 10CLE 79%

(4:25) 2-M.Glennon pass deep left to 19-C.Johnson for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

  1. Q2 · 4:25JAX +15% win prob(4:25) 2-M.Glennon pass deep left to 19-C.Johnson for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  2. Q3 · 15:00CLE +11% win prob(15:00) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 88-H.Bryant to CLE 38 for 13 yards (47-J.Schobert). FUMBLES (47-J.Schobert), RECOVERED by JAX-42-A.Wingard at CLE 47. 42-A.Wingard ran ob at CLE 30 for 17 yards (82-R.Higgins).
  3. Q4 · 2:22JAX +11% win prob(2:22) (Shotgun) 30-J.Robinson up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
  4. Q4 · 1:37JAX +10% win prob(1:37) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 24-N.Chubb to CLE 48 for 13 yards (47-J.Schobert). JAX-40-B.Watson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

MetricBrownsJaguars
Offensive plays6161
Total yards462 (edge)375
Yards per play7.6 (edge)6.1
Expected points added / play0.21 (edge)0.14
Success rate52% (edge)48%
Dropback rate52%61%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)0.22 (edge)0.08
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)0.190.24 (edge)
Third downs5/10 (edge)5/12
Red-zone trips → TDs0 → 00 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)9 (edge)7
First downs gained on snaps26 (edge)22
Sacks taken20 (edge)
Turnovers10 (edge)

Browns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs 0.14.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

19/29, 258 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

13.3 expected points added · +7.1% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Mike GlennonQB

20/35, 235 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

3.6 expected points added · -2.0% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

19 att, 144 yds, 1 TD

8.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

James RobinsonRB

22 att, 128 yds, 1 TD

4.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CLE

Jarvis LandryWR

8/11 for 143 yds, 1 TD

41% of team targets · 11.2 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Collin JohnsonWR

4/8 for 96 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 3.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#TeamStartPlaysScrim ydsClockResult
1JAXJAX 257212:55Punt
2CLECLE 8412:19Punt
3JAX506193:11Turnover on downs
4CLECLE 457552:55Touchdown
5JAXJAX 2512575:03Turnover on downs
6CLECLE 2515696:34Turnover on downs
7JAXJAX 237772:49Touchdown
8CLECLE 1610793:04Touchdown
9JAXJAX 259391:10Turnover on downs
10CLECLE 252130:12Fumble
11JAXCLE 307303:07Touchdown
12CLECLE 3611494:56Turnover on downs
13JAXJAX 208343:35Punt
14CLECLE 109863:57Touchdown
15JAXJAX 257272:14Punt
16CLECLE 210776:30Turnover on downs
17JAXJAX 2212713:15Touchdown
18CLECLE 258332:14End of game

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 86 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Baker Mayfield19/2925820213.3

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
Nick Chubb191447.618.3
Kareem Hunt10626.20-2.7
Baker Mayfield410.30-0.3

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Jarvis Landry811143141%11.2
Nick Chubb3332011%-0.1
KhaDarel Hodge3331011%6.4
Rashard Higgins121507%0.3
Harrison Bryant121307%-5.4
Austin Hooper221317%2.2
Stephen Carlson111104%0.6
Kareem Hunt02007%-2.7
Taywan Taylor01004%-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
B.J. Goodson510.001
Terrance Mitchell600.000
Karl Joseph410.000
Malcolm Smith500.000
Larry Ogunjobi210.000
Tavierre Thomas300.000
Mack Wilson210.001
Kevin Johnson300.000
Cameron Malveaux200.000
Jordan Elliott200.000

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINTSackedEPA
Mike Glennon20/352352003.6

Rushing

PlayerAttYdsAvgTDEPA
James Robinson221285.814.8
Mike Glennon263.000.3
Laviska Shenault Jr.166.000.4

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTDTgt shareEPA
Collin Johnson4896124%3.4
Keelan Cole3644018%-0.8
James Robinson5631018%0.3
Laviska Shenault Jr.3431012%1.5
James O'Shaughnessy2417012%0.1
Tyler Eifert3416112%0.0
Ben Ellefson01003%-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

PlayerSoloAstSacksINTPD
Myles Jack360.000
Joe Schobert710.000
Jarrod Wilson430.000
Adam Gotsis320.000
Tre Herndon220.000
Brandon Rusnak310.000
Luq Barcoo220.000
Josiah Scott400.000
Andrew Wingard120.001
Taven Bryan110.000

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread
CLE -7.5
Closing total
48.5
CLE moneyline
-334
JAX moneyline
+284

Browns closed -7.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 52 — over by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue
TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
70°F, wind 1 mph
Referee
Jerome Boger
Rest
CLE 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches
Kevin Stefanski vs Doug Marrone