2020 Week 12 · Thu, Nov 26, 2020 · Ford Field

Houston TexansWinner

Detroit Lions

HOU -3 ✓O 52.5 ✓DomeTexans closed -3 and covered, winning by 16.

Houston Texans 41–25. Biggest swing: Q1 4:45, HOU +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 4:45HOU — DET DET ball · 1st & 10DET 67%

(4:45) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 45-J.Cabinda INTERCEPTED by 99-J.Watt at DET 19. 99-J.Watt for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 4:45HOU +20% win prob(4:45) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 45-J.Cabinda INTERCEPTED by 99-J.Watt at DET 19. 99-J.Watt for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 4:32HOU +18% win prob(4:32) 41-J.Williams right tackle to DET 28 for 5 yards (50-T.Adams, 90-R.Blacklock). FUMBLES (50-T.Adams), touched at DET 28, RECOVERED by HOU-21-B.Roby at DET 30. 21-B.Roby to DET 30 for no gain (76-O.Aboushi).
Q2 · 10:24DET +10% win prob(10:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 25-D.Johnson for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 14:54HOU +9% win prob(14:54) (Shotgun) 24-C.Prosise up the middle to HOU 25 for 4 yards (58-J.Collins). FUMBLES (58-J.Collins), RECOVERED by DET-51-J.Tavai at HOU 26.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Texans	Lions
Offensive plays	47	77
Total yards	390	390
Yards per play	8.3 (edge)	5.1
Expected points added / play	0.29 (edge)	-0.18
Success rate	55% (edge)	48%
Dropback rate	66%	64%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.64 (edge)	-0.00
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.40 (edge)	-0.48
Third downs	3/8	6/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	20	27 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	4
Turnovers	1 (edge)	3

Texans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs -0.18.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

17/25, 318 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

18.9 expected points added · +11.0% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Matthew StaffordQB

28/42, 295 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-0.5 expected points added · -2.6% completion over expected

Rushing · DET

Adrian PetersonRB

15 att, 55 yds, 2 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DET

Kerryon JohnsonRB

11 att, 46 yds, 0 TD

-5.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Will FullerWR

6/7 for 171 yds, 2 TD

30% of team targets · 14.1 expected points added

Receiving · DET

T.J. HockensonTE

5/8 for 89 yds, 0 TD

19% of team targets · 4.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 22	9	22	3:50	Punt
2	DET	DET 15	8	70	4:16	Touchdown
3	HOU	HOU 25	6	20	2:09	Punt
4	DET	DET 25	1	0	0:07	Defensive touchdown
5	DET	DET 23	2	5	0:14	Fumble
6	HOU	DET 30	4	15	1:26	Touchdown
7	DET	DET 22	7	55	3:04	Fumble
8	HOU	HOU 21	1	4	0:04	Fumble
9	DET	HOU 26	5	21	1:54	Touchdown
10	HOU	HOU 40	7	55	2:38	Touchdown
11	DET	DET 25	10	26	4:03	Punt
12	HOU	HOU 20	9	72	4:31	Turnover on downs
13	DET	DET 25	8	22	1:35	Punt
14	HOU	HOU 9	1	0	0:09	End of half
15	DET	DET 21	15	68	7:36	Turnover on downs
16	HOU	HOU 25	10	67	4:14	Turnover on downs
17	DET	DET 28	7	7	3:10	Punt
18	HOU	HOU 15	7	92	2:51	Touchdown
19	DET	DET 25	5	19	1:52	Turnover on downs
20	HOU	DET 34	2	34	0:10	Touchdown
21	DET	DET 25	14	77	3:35	Touchdown
22	HOU	HOU 28	5	9	2:39	Punt
23	DET	DET 27	9	20	2:18	Turnover on downs
24	HOU	DET 47	3	0	1:35	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 92 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	17/25	318	4	0	2	18.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Duke Johnson	9	37	4.1	0.5
Deshaun Watson	8	24	3.0	-2.0
C.J. Prosise	5	12	2.4	-6.4
Jordan Akins	1	4	4.0	0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Will Fuller	6	7	171	2	30%	14.1
Brandin Cooks	5	5	85	0	22%	6.5
Duke Johnson	3	4	43	1	17%	3.0
Keke Coutee	2	3	17	0	13%	1.4
C.J. Prosise	1	1	2	1	4%	1.1
Jordan Akins	0	2	0	0	9%	-1.8
Kahale Warring	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Tyrell Adams	12	3	0.0	0	1
Zach Cunningham	5	3	0.0	0	0
Justin Reid	5	3	1.0	0	1
Vernon Hargreaves	5	1	0.0	0	0
Lonnie Johnson	4	2	0.0	0	0
Keion Crossen	3	2	0.0	0	0
Nate Hall	3	2	2.0	0	0
J.J. Watt	2	2	0.0	1	1
Eric Murray	1	2	0.0	0	0
Charles Omenihu	2	0	0.0	0	0

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	28/42	295	1	1	4	-0.5
Jamal Agnew	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Adrian Peterson	15	55	3.7	2	0.7
Kerryon Johnson	11	46	4.2	0	-5.0
Jonathan Williams	1	5	5.0	0	-5.4
Matthew Stafford	1	3	3.0	0	0.8
Jason Cabinda	1	0	0.0	0	-3.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
T.J. Hockenson	5	8	89	0	19%	4.1
Kerryon Johnson	4	4	52	0	10%	4.7
Marvin Jones	6	12	48	0	29%	-3.5
Mohamed Sanu	4	4	32	1	10%	7.2
Quintez Cephus	2	2	27	0	5%	1.8
Jonathan Williams	4	4	21	0	10%	0.2
Marvin Hall	2	4	16	0	10%	0.3
Jesse James	1	1	10	0	2%	0.4
Matthew Stafford	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.5
Jamal Agnew	0	1	0	0	2%	-1.7
Jason Cabinda	0	1	0	0	2%	-8.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jamie Collins	4	1	0.0	1
Jayron Kearse	2	2	0.0	0
Christian Jones	3	0	0.0	0
Justin Coleman	3	0	0.0	0
Duron Harmon	3	0	0.0	0
Reggie Ragland	2	1	0.0	0
Jarrad Davis	2	1	0.5	0
Everson Griffen	1	1	0.5	1
Jahlani Tavai	1	1	0.0	0
Amani Oruwariye	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: HOU -3
Closing total: 52.5
HOU moneyline: -155
DET moneyline: +139

Texans closed -3 and covered, winning by 16.

Total closed 52.5; the game landed 66 — over by 13.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Ford Field
Roof / surface: dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: HOU 4 days · DET 4 days
Coaches: Romeo Crennel vs Matt Patricia