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Houston Texans 41, Lions 25 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 4:45, 1st and 10, on J.J. Watt — 19.6 win-probability points to the Texans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 4:45 · 1st and 10
J.J. Watt
Texans
(4:45) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 45-J.Cabinda INTERCEPTED by 99-J.Watt at DET 19. 99-J.Watt for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Texans closed -3 and covered, winning by 16.
Houston Texans 41–25. Biggest swing: Q1 4:45, Texans +19.6% win probability on one snap.
19.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jonathan WilliamsTexansQ1 4:32(4:32) 41-J.Williams right tackle to DET 28 for 5 yards (50-T.Adams, 90-R.Blacklock). FUMBLES (50-T.Adams), touched at DET 28, RECOVERED by HOU-21-B.Roby at DET 30. 21-B.Roby to DET 30 for no gain (76-O.Aboushi).
18.2pts
Duke JohnsonTexansQ2 10:24(10:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 25-D.Johnson for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9.7pts
What separated them
Every snap
Texans won this one — +0.29 expected points per snap, against Lions at -0.18 expected points per snap.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Texans won this one — +0.64 expected points per dropback, against Lions at -0.00 expected points per dropback.
Texansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Lions owned this one and still lost it — 3 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Texans at 1 touchdown on 6 trips.
Lionsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Texans won this one — 1 giveaway, against Lions at 3 giveaways.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 19 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Texans173 of 180 plays carry both curves
(4:45) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 45-J.Cabinda INTERCEPTED by 99-J.Watt at DET 19. 99-J.Watt for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −19.6 for LionsExpected points −8.69 for LionsThe model had Lions 14 points higher than the market did.play 27
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 4:45HOU +20% win prob(4:45) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 45-J.Cabinda INTERCEPTED by 99-J.Watt at DET 19. 99-J.Watt for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 4:32HOU +18% win prob(4:32) 41-J.Williams right tackle to DET 28 for 5 yards (50-T.Adams, 90-R.Blacklock). FUMBLES (50-T.Adams), touched at DET 28, RECOVERED by HOU-21-B.Roby at DET 30. 21-B.Roby to DET 30 for no gain (76-O.Aboushi).
2nd · 10:24DET +10% win prob(10:24) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 25-D.Johnson for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 14:54HOU +9% win prob(14:54) (Shotgun) 24-C.Prosise up the middle to HOU 25 for 4 yards (58-J.Collins). FUMBLES (58-J.Collins), RECOVERED by DET-51-J.Tavai at HOU 26.
2nd · 13:00DET +9% win prob(13:00) 67-M.Nelson reported in as eligible. 28-A.Peterson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:35DET +9% win prob(8:35) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 88-T.Hockenson to HOU 17 for 51 yards (32-L.Johnson).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Duke Johnson's 33-yard touchdown catch with 10:24 left in the 2nd put Houston Texans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
4th6:37Mohamed Sanu·14-yd TD catch14-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford · two-point good+841–25
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryLions
Texans5–3Lions
390Total yards390
8.3Yards per play5.1
55%Success rate48%
38%Third-down rate46%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
8Explosive plays4
20First downs27
2Sacks taken4
1Turnovers3
The read
Texans ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Lions, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.64 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.29Texans: +0.29 expected points added per play
−0.18Lions: −0.18 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.64Texans: +0.64 expected points added per play
−0.00Lions: −0.00 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.40Texans: −0.40 expected points added per play
−0.48Lions: −0.48 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 47 snaps at a 66% dropback rate against Lions’s 77 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Texans 6, Lions 4.
NoteTexans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.29 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 12Against their seasonFourth Down
DET's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, is past their previous high of 33.3% in week 7 — the highest of their 5 charted games through week 12.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 6 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 30.0 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 22 pts
right on their number · +2.4 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (+0.36× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Lions9.7%
right on their number · −0.0 vs their 9.7%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.01× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteHOU's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 13.0 pts, 7.5 points above their season mean of 5.5 pts and 1.2 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Stafford pass−19% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(4:45) 9-M.Stafford pass short left intended for 45-J.Cabinda INTERCEPTED by 99-J.Watt at DET 19. 99-J.Watt for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 4:45 · Lions · 1st & 10 at DET 25 · gained nothing · -8.69 EP · −18.7% win probability
171 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 180 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 180 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 85 yards from the DET 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
180 of 180 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
180
EPA per play
-0.04
Success rate
46%
Yards
776
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53+0.0679%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25+0.5280%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21-0.0138%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10+0.1840%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR3——
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Texans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
180 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
180 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Texans 22 to the Texans 46
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw4.8 seconds
Texans0Lions6
Texans0Lions7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Lions 15 to the Texans 1
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 45
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end, two receivers and one linebackerDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Texans6Lions7
Touchdown1 play
Offense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost2 plays
Texans12Lions7
Texans13Lions7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Lions 30 to the Lions 1
The period ended7 plays, from the Lions 22 to the Texans 34
2nd quarter50 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost1 play
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost1 play
Texans13Lions13
Texans13Lions14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Texans 26 to the Texans 1
Texans19Lions14
Texans20Lions14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Texans 40 to the Lions 23
Punt10 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Texans 49
Texans23Lions14
Field goal11 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Lions 9
Punt10 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Texans 44
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter34 plays
Texans23Lions17
Field goal15 plays, from the Lions 21 to the Texans 11
Texans26Lions17
Field goal10 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Lions 8
Punt8 plays, from the Lions 28 to the Lions 42
4th quarter53 plays
Texans32Lions17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Texans 15 to the Lions 35
Texans34Lions17
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 34
Texans40Lions17
Texans41Lions17
Touchdown2 plays
Texans41Lions23
Texans41Lions25
Touchdown14 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Texans 14
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 28 to the Texans 37
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Lions 27 to the Texans 48
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Texans -3
Closing total
52.5
Texans moneyline
-155
Lions moneyline
+139
Texans closed -3 and covered, winning by 16.
Total closed 52.5; the game landed 66 — over by 13.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Texans 4 days · Lions 4 days
Coaches
Romeo Crennel vs Matt Patricia
2nd · 15:00HOU +8% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 33-K.Johnson up the middle to HOU 22 for 5 yards (92-B.Dunn, 50-T.Adams). Houston challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 33-K.Johnson up the middle to HOU 23 for 4 yards (92-B.Dunn, 50-T.Adams). FUMBLES (50-T.Adams), RECOVERED by HOU-92-B.Dunn at HOU 21.
2nd · 5:15DET +6% win prob(5:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle to 15-W.Fuller pushed ob at DET 26 for 37 yards (26-D.Harmon). DET-23-D.Trufant was injured during the play. He is Out.
