2020 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 29, 2020 · Raymond James Stadium

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

KC -3.5 no coverU 56 ✓Chiefs closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Kansas City Chiefs 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q1 6:59, TB +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 6:59KC — TB KC ball · 1st & 10KC 68%

(6:59) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 6:59TB +15% win prob(6:59) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 4:14TB +9% win prob(4:14) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-21-B.Breeland, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
Q1 · 12:18KC +8% win prob(12:18) 7-H.Butker 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
Q1 · 15:00TB +8% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 10-T.Hill pushed ob at TB 41 for 34 yards (23-S.Murphy-Bunting).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	71	54
Total yards	544 (edge)	418
Yards per play	7.7	7.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.27 (edge)	0.15
Success rate	49%	50% (edge)
Dropback rate	76%	78%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.40 (edge)	0.17
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.16	0.06 (edge)
Third downs	6/12 (edge)	3/9
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	7
First downs gained on snaps	24 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs 0.15.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

37/49, 462 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

21.3 expected points added · +18.0% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

27/41, 345 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

7.2 expected points added · +1.7% completion over expected

Rushing · TB

Ronald JonesRB

9 att, 66 yds, 0 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB

11 att, 37 yds, 0 TD

-3.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Tyreek HillWR

13/15 for 269 yds, 3 TD

33% of team targets · 22.5 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Rob GronkowskiTE

6/7 for 106 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 6.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	KC	KC 25	9	64	2:46	Turnover on downs
2	TB	TB 25	7	21	2:00	Punt
3	KC	KC 22	4	4	1:57	Punt
4	TB	TB 19	4	7	1:18	Punt
5	KC	KC 25	2	75	0:10	Touchdown
6	TB	TB 25	5	8	1:27	Punt
7	KC	KC 10	8	95	3:50	Touchdown
8	TB	TB 25	5	8	1:32	Punt
9	KC	KC 22	12	70	6:22	Fumble
10	TB	TB 14	8	88	4:09	Touchdown
11	KC	KC 25	14	69	4:15	Turnover on downs
12	TB	TB 25	2	0	0:14	End of half
13	TB	TB 25	9	67	3:56	Turnover on downs
14	KC	KC 25	9	80	4:04	Touchdown
15	TB	TB 25	5	49	2:03	Interception
16	KC	KC 11	4	5	1:00	Punt
17	TB	TB 32	4	44	1:54	Interception
18	KC	KC 35	4	8	1:50	Punt
19	TB	TB 25	9	75	2:29	Touchdown
20	KC	KC 25	11	40	6:23	Punt
21	TB	TB 27	11	51	2:11	Touchdown
22	KC	KC 25	9	34	4:10	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chiefs gained 95 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	37/49	462	3	0	2	21.3
Travis Kelce	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	11	37	3.4	-3.6
Patrick Mahomes	4	28	7.0	1.0
Le'Veon Bell	5	22	4.4	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyreek Hill	13	15	269	3	33%	22.5
Travis Kelce	8	8	82	0	17%	7.5
Sammy Watkins	4	7	38	0	15%	0.8
Demarcus Robinson	5	6	36	0	13%	2.0
Mecole Hardman	3	5	23	0	11%	0.3
Le'Veon Bell	2	2	10	0	4%	-0.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	1	1	2	0	2%	-0.2
Deon Yelder	1	1	2	0	2%	-0.4
Patrick Mahomes	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Daniel Sorensen	4	3	0.0	0	0
Anthony Hitchens	3	4	0.0	0	0
Rashad Fenton	5	1	0.0	0	0
Tyrann Mathieu	4	1	0.0	1	1
Charvarius Ward	1	3	0.0	0	0
Derrick Nnadi	1	2	0.0	0	0
Juan Thornhill	3	0	0.0	0	0
L'Jarius Sneed	2	1	0.0	0	0
Michael Danna	0	3	0.5	0	0
Alex Okafor	1	2	0.5	0	0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	27/41	345	3	2	1	7.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Ronald Jones	9	66	7.3	0.9
Leonard Fournette	3	10	3.3	-0.1
Tom Brady	1	-1	-1.0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Rob Gronkowski	6	7	106	0	17%	6.1
Chris Godwin	8	9	97	0	22%	6.8
Mike Evans	3	9	50	2	22%	-1.4
Ronald Jones	1	2	37	1	5%	3.0
Cameron Brate	4	6	34	0	15%	-0.5
Antonio Brown	2	3	11	0	7%	-0.8
Leonard Fournette	3	3	10	0	7%	-0.8
Scott Miller	0	1	0	0	2%	-3.7
Tyler Johnson	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Devin White	8	3	0.0	0
Antoine Winfield	6	2	0.0	0
Lavonte David	5	2	0.0	0
Carlton Davis	5	0	0.0	2
Sean Murphy-Bunting	5	0	0.0	0
Ndamukong Suh	4	1	0.0	0
Jason Pierre-Paul	3	1	1.0	0
Ross Cockrell	3	1	0.0	0
Shaquil Barrett	3	0	1.0	0
Steve McLendon	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -3.5
Closing total: 56
KC moneyline: -166
TB moneyline: +149

Chiefs closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 56; the game landed 51 — under by 5.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 81°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: KC 7 days · TB 6 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Bruce Arians