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2020 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 29, 2020 · Raymond James Stadium
Final
ChiefsKansas City27
BY 3final margin
BuccaneersTampa Bay24
Kansas City Chiefs 27 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24. Final.
Chiefs -3.5 no coverU 56 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 12
Kansas City Chiefs 27, Buccaneers 24 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q1 6:59, 1st and 10, on Tyreek Hill — 14.5 win-probability points to the Chiefs on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 6:59 · 1st and 10
Tyreek Hill
Chiefs
(6:59) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Chiefs closed -3.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Kansas City Chiefs 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q1 6:59, Chiefs +14.5% win probability on one snap.
14.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Harrison ButkerBuccaneersQ1 12:18(12:18) 7-H.Butker 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
8.3pts
Mike EvansBuccaneersQ4 4:14(4:14) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-21-B.Breeland, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
8.8pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Chiefs won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Buccaneers at 7 chunk plays.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Chiefs won this one — 6 of 12 on third down, against Buccaneers at 3 of 9 on third down.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Buccaneers owned this one and still lost it — +0.06 expected points per carry, against Chiefs at -0.16 expected points per carry.
Buccaneersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Chiefs won this one — 1 giveaway, against Buccaneers at 2 giveaways.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Buccaneers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Chiefs174 of 182 plays carry both curves
(6:59) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −14.5 for BuccaneersExpected points −6.57 for BuccaneersThe model had Buccaneers 13 points higher than the market did.play 30
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 6:59TB +15% win prob(6:59) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 4:14TB +9% win prob(4:14) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-21-B.Breeland, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.
1st · 12:18KC +8% win prob(12:18) 7-H.Butker 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
1st · 15:00TB +8% win prob(15:00) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 10-T.Hill pushed ob at TB 41 for 34 yards (23-S.Murphy-Bunting).
1st · 1:42TB +6% win prob(1:42) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 12:50TB +6% win prob(12:50) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 13-M.Evans for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 13:46
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Harrison Butker's 19-yard field goal with 12:18 left in the 1st put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st12:18Harrison Butker·19-yd field goal19-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.WinchesterLead never changed again+33–0
1st6:59Tyreek Hill·75-yd TD catch75-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+710–0
1st1:42Tyreek Hill·44-yd TD catch44-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+717–0
2nd4:39Ronald Jones·37-yd TD catch37-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+717–7
2nd0:18Harrison Butker·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+320–7
3rd11:08Ryan Succop·26-yd field goal26-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap Z.Triner+320–10
3rd7:04Tyreek Hill·20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick Mahomes+727–10
4th12:50Mike Evans·31-yd TD catch31-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+727–17
4th4:14Mike Evans·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom Brady+727–24
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chiefscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Chiefs5–3Buccaneers
544Total yards418
7.7Yards per play7.7
49%Success rate50%
50%Third-down rate33%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
10Explosive plays7
24First downs17
2Sacks taken1
1Turnovers2
The read
Chiefs ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Buccaneers, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.27Chiefs: +0.27 expected points added per play
+0.15Buccaneers: +0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.40Chiefs: +0.40 expected points added per play
+0.17Buccaneers: +0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.16Chiefs: −0.16 expected points added per play
+0.06Buccaneers: +0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 71 snaps at a 76% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 54 at 78%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 6, Buccaneers 4.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs 0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
KC's pass rate over expected, +22.4 pts, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 12 — 0.9 points clear of the next team along.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 11.
71 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekFourth Down
KC's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 23 team-games charted in week 12 — 25.0 points clear of the next team along.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 31.0 points.
KC's sack or hit rate turned over: 3.0% in week 11 against 16.7% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
42 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 29 pts
right on their number · +1.0 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.19× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Buccaneers13.0%
inside their normal wobble · −4.0 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (−0.52× that swing) · 54 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteKC's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 22.4 pts, 12.5 points above their season mean of 9.8 pts and 1.7 times their own 7.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 3 never used
73Nick AllegrettiG · Every snap100%79 snaps
77Andrew WylieT · Every snap100%79 snaps
75Mike RemmersT · Every snap100%79 snaps
62Austin ReiterC · Every snap100%79 snaps
72Eric FisherT · Every snap100%79 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%79 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Full-time86%68 snaps
10Tyreek HillWR · Full-time86%68 snaps
11Demarcus RobinsonWR · Heavy rotation72%57 snaps
14Sammy WatkinsWR · Heavy rotation72%57 snaps
25Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB · Heavy rotation59%47 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Mahomes pass+16% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(6:59) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 10-T.Hill for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 6:59 · Chiefs · 1st & 10 at KC 25 · gained 75 · +6.57 EP · +16.3% win probability
172 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 182 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 182 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was KC moving 90 yards from the KC 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
182 of 182 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
182
EPA per play
+0.14
Success rate
46%
Yards
960
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR52+0.3279%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.2774%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.4258%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.9575%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.5380%
Buccaneers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Buccaneers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
182 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
182 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter52 plays
Chiefs3Buccaneers0
Field goal11 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Buccaneers 1
Punt7 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 46
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 22 to the Chiefs 31
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 19 to the Buccaneers 26
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Chiefs9Buccaneers0
Chiefs10Buccaneers0
Touchdown2 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 33
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.6 seconds
Chiefs16Buccaneers0
Chiefs17Buccaneers0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chiefs 10 to the Buccaneers 39
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 33
2nd quarter41 plays
Fumble lost13 plays, from the Chiefs 22 to the Buccaneers 8
Chiefs17Buccaneers6
Chiefs17Buccaneers7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Buccaneers 14 to the Chiefs 37
Chiefs20Buccaneers7
Field goal15 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Buccaneers 11
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter41 plays
Chiefs20Buccaneers10
Field goal9 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Chiefs 4
Chiefs26Buccaneers10
Chiefs27Buccaneers10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Buccaneers 20
Intercepted6 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Chiefs 36
Punt4 plays, from the Chiefs 11 to the Chiefs 16
Intercepted4 plays, from the Buccaneers 32 to the Chiefs 24
Punt5 plays, from the Chiefs 35 to the Chiefs 43
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter48 plays
Chiefs27Buccaneers16
Chiefs27Buccaneers17
Touchdown8 plays, from the Buccaneers 31 to the Chiefs 31
Punt15 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Buccaneers 33
Chiefs27Buccaneers23
Chiefs27Buccaneers24
Touchdown13 plays, from the Buccaneers 27 to the Chiefs 7
The period ended12 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Buccaneers 41
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
