2020 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 29, 2020 · New Era Field

Los Angeles Chargers

Buffalo BillsWinner

BUF -4.5 ✓U 51 ✓Bills closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 10.

Buffalo Bills 27–17. Biggest swing: Q2 9:50, BUF +10% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 9:50LAC — BUF BUF ball · 2nd & 8BUF 75%

(9:50) (Shotgun) 11-C.Beasley pass deep right to 13-G.Davis for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Allen laterals ball to Beasley, who then throws to Davis.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 9:50BUF +10% win prob(9:50) (Shotgun) 11-C.Beasley pass deep right to 13-G.Davis for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Allen laterals ball to Beasley, who then throws to Davis.
Q4 · 6:21LAC +9% win prob(6:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 43-M.Davis [93-J.Jones] at LAC 44. 43-M.Davis to LAC 44 for no gain (14-S.Diggs).
Q1 · 6:35BUF +9% win prob(6:35) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 13-K.Allen for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 5:23LAC +8% win prob(5:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle intended for 86-H.Henry INTERCEPTED by 27-T.White at BUF 35. 27-T.White to BUF 35 for no gain (81-M.Williams).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chargers	Bills
Offensive plays	80	57
Total yards	369 (edge)	333
Yards per play	4.6	5.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.07	-0.04 (edge)
Success rate	40%	46% (edge)
Dropback rate	70%	51%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.11	0.15 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.48	-0.23 (edge)
Third downs	3/16	4/9 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	3	3
Turnovers	1 (edge)	3

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.07.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

31/52, 316 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

6.2 expected points added · -9.2% completion over expected

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

18/24, 157 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

1.1 expected points added · +9.0% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

Devin SingletaryRB

11 att, 82 yds, 0 TD

-1.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Zack MossRB

9 att, 59 yds, 0 TD

0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Austin EkelerRB

11/16 for 85 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · -0.2 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Gabe DavisWR

3/4 for 79 yds, 1 TD

17% of team targets · 6.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	LAC	LAC 25	5	0	0:35	Punt
2	BUF	BUF 37	5	16	1:59	Touchdown
3	LAC	LAC 21	15	79	5:55	Touchdown
4	BUF	BUF 30	5	5	2:18	Punt
5	LAC	LAC 20	4	2	0:48	Punt
6	BUF	BUF 38	4	1	2:04	Punt
7	LAC	LAC 15	7	20	2:16	Punt
8	BUF	BUF 24	8	61	4:21	Touchdown
9	LAC	LAC 31	7	12	2:13	Punt
10	BUF	BUF 14	12	50	5:15	Turnover on downs
11	LAC	LAC 19	9	33	2:04	Punt
12	BUF	BUF 20	1	0	0:12	End of half
13	BUF	BUF 43	14	53	5:58	Touchdown
14	LAC	LAC 33	12	69	4:11	Touchdown
15	BUF	BUF 32	6	11	2:40	Punt
16	LAC	LAC 20	7	39	2:18	Turnover on downs
17	BUF	BUF 26	2	19	0:47	Fumble
18	LAC	BUF 46	7	16	3:50	Turnover on downs
19	BUF	BUF 34	3	44	0:30	Fumble
20	LAC	LAC 22	4	-2	1:32	Punt
21	BUF	BUF 30	4	8	2:01	Interception
22	LAC	LAC 44	3	4	0:56	Interception
23	BUF	BUF 35	6	65	1:51	Turnover on downs
24	LAC	LAC 12	14	97	3:26	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 97 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a end of game.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Herbert	31/52	316	1	1	3	6.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Austin Ekeler	14	44	3.1	0	-3.9
Joshua Kelley	7	35	5.0	1	-2.1
Troymaine Pope	1	-1	-1.0	0	-0.6
Justin Herbert	2	-2	-1.0	0	-4.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Austin Ekeler	11	16	85	0	31%	-0.2
Hunter Henry	7	10	67	0	20%	-0.3
Tyron Johnson	2	4	63	0	8%	4.6
Keenan Allen	4	10	40	1	20%	1.1
Jalen Guyton	3	4	33	0	8%	3.9
Mike Williams	3	5	26	0	10%	3.5
Troymaine Pope	1	1	2	0	2%	-0.6
Donald Parham	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Rayshawn Jenkins	7	3	0.0	0	0
Joey Bosa	7	1	3.0	0	1
Nick Vigil	5	2	0.0	0	1
Michael Davis	2	2	0.0	1	1
Nasir Adderley	2	2	0.0	0	0
Kenneth Murray	3	1	0.0	0	0
Tevaughn Campbell	3	0	0.0	0	0
Chris Harris	3	0	0.0	0	0
Denzel Perryman	1	2	0.0	0	0
Linval Joseph	2	1	0.0	0	0

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	18/24	157	1	1	2	1.1
Cole Beasley	1/1	20	1	0	0	2.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Devin Singletary	11	82	7.5	0	-1.8
Zack Moss	9	59	6.6	0	0.6
Josh Allen	9	32	3.6	1	-2.5
Isaiah McKenzie	1	-1	-1.0	0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Gabe Davis	3	4	79	1	17%	6.7
Stefon Diggs	7	9	39	0	38%	-2.1
Cole Beasley	2	4	25	0	17%	1.1
Devin Singletary	3	3	20	0	13%	1.8
Zack Moss	2	2	9	0	8%	-0.3
Lee Smith	1	1	3	0	4%	-0.3
Dawson Knox	1	1	2	1	4%	0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Tremaine Edmunds	3	8	0.0	0	1
A.J. Klein	7	4	1.5	0	1
Tre'Davious White	4	4	0.0	1	2
Levi Wallace	3	4	0.0	0	0
Jordan Poyer	5	2	0.0	0	0
Taron Johnson	2	3	0.0	0	2
Jerry Hughes	1	3	0.5	0	0
Justin Zimmer	2	1	0.0	0	0
Ed Oliver	1	2	1.0	0	0
Taiwan Jones	2	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -4.5
Closing total: 51
LAC moneyline: +189
BUF moneyline: -214

Bills closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 10.

Total closed 51; the game landed 44 — under by 7.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather: 48°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: LAC 7 days · BUF 14 days
Coaches: Anthony Lynn vs Sean McDermott