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Los Angeles Chargers 17 at Buffalo Bills 27. Final.
Bills -4.5 ✓U 51 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 12
Buffalo Bills 27, Chargers 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 9:50, 2nd and 8, on Gabe Davis — 10.2 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 9:50 · 2nd and 8
Gabe Davis
Bills
(9:50) (Shotgun) 11-C.Beasley pass deep right to 13-G.Davis for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Allen laterals ball to Beasley, who then throws to Davis.
Bills closed -4.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Buffalo Bills 27–17. Biggest swing: Q2 9:50, Bills +10.2% win probability on one snap.
10.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Keenan AllenChargersQ1 6:35(6:35) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 13-K.Allen for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
9.1pts
Michael DavisChargersQ4 6:21(6:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 43-M.Davis [93-J.Jones] at LAC 44. 43-M.Davis to LAC 44 for no gain (14-S.Diggs).
9.4pts
What separated them
Third down
Bills won this one — 4 of 9 on third down, against Chargers at 3 of 16 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Chargers owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Bills at 3 giveaways.
Chargersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Bills won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Chargers at 4 chunk plays.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bills won this one — -0.23 expected points per carry, against Chargers at -0.48 expected points per carry.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Billshigher on Chargers176 of 186 plays carry both curves
(9:50) (Shotgun) 11-C.Beasley pass deep right to 13-G.Davis for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Allen laterals ball to Beasley, who then throws to Davis.
Swing +10.2 for BillsExpected points +2.91 for BillsModel and market agree here.play 58
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 9:50BUF +10% win prob(9:50) (Shotgun) 11-C.Beasley pass deep right to 13-G.Davis for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Allen laterals ball to Beasley, who then throws to Davis.
4th · 6:21LAC +9% win prob(6:21) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left intended for 14-S.Diggs INTERCEPTED by 43-M.Davis [93-J.Jones] at LAC 44. 43-M.Davis to LAC 44 for no gain (14-S.Diggs).
1st · 6:35BUF +9% win prob(6:35) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 13-K.Allen for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 5:23LAC +8% win prob(5:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep middle intended for 86-H.Henry INTERCEPTED by 27-T.White at BUF 35. 27-T.White to BUF 35 for no gain (81-M.Williams).
4th · 9:55LAC +8% win prob(9:55) 17-J.Allen FUMBLES (Aborted) at LAC 22, touched at LAC 24, RECOVERED by LAC-97-J.Bosa at LAC 22.
1st · 13:15BUF +8% win prob(13:15) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep left to 14-S.Diggs (23-R.Jenkins). PENALTY on LAC-23-R.Jenkins, Defensive Pass Interference, 47 yards, enforced at BUF 48 - No Play.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dawson Knox's 2-yard touchdown catch with 12:31 left in the 1st put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
4th10:20Michael Badgley·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder T.Long · snap C.Mazza+317–24
4th3:31Tyler Bass·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Ferguson+317–27
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chargerscategory by categoryBills
Chargers3–5Bills
369Total yards333
4.6Yards per play5.8
40%Success rate46%
19%Third-down rate44%
2Red-zone touchdowns3
4Explosive plays7
22First downs19
3Sacks taken3
1Turnovers3
The read
Bills ahead 5–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Chargers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.48 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.07Chargers: −0.07 expected points added per play
−0.04Bills: −0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.11Chargers: +0.11 expected points added per play
+0.15Bills: +0.15 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.48Chargers: −0.48 expected points added per play
−0.23Bills: −0.23 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chargers ran 80 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Bills’s 57 at 51%. Red-zone trips: Chargers 4, Bills 4.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.07.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
LAC's sack or hit rate, 27.6%, was the highest of the 31 team-games charted in week 12 — 3.3 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 25.0% in week 11.
2.2 times their own weekly swing above their number.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 33 pts
off script — got home · +13.3 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+2.19× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Bills12.5%
right on their number · −2.1 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.35× that swing) · 56 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLAC's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 27.6%, 13.3 points above their season mean of 14.3% and 2.2 times their own 6.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Chargers
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
69Sam TeviT · Every snap100%83 snaps
79Trey PipkinsT · Every snap100%83 snaps
76Forrest LampG · Every snap100%83 snaps
66Dan FeeneyG · Every snap100%83 snaps
70Trai TurnerG · Every snap100%83 snaps
10Justin HerbertQB · Every snap100%83 snaps
13Keenan AllenWR · Full-time94%78 snaps
86Hunter HenryTE · Full-time94%78 snaps
81Mike WilliamsWR · Full-time81%67 snaps
15Jalen GuytonWR · Heavy rotation76%63 snaps
30Austin EkelerRB · Heavy rotation72%60 snaps
27Joshua KelleyRB · Situational23%19 snaps
83Tyron JohnsonWR · Situational22%18 snaps
89Donald ParhamTE · Situational14%12 snaps
40Gabe NabersRB · Situational8%7 snaps
82Stephen AndersonTE · Situational7%6 snaps
35Troymaine PopeRB · Situational7%6 snaps
61Scott QuessenberryG · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Casey HaywardCBUchenna NwosuDECortez BroughtonDTEaston StickQBKalen BallageRBStorm NortonTTyree St. LouisT
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Chargers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chargers←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Kelley left−10% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(10:52) (Shotgun) 27-J.Kelley left end pushed ob at BUF 10 for -3 yards (54-A.Klein).
Q4 10:52 · Chargers · 3rd & 1 at BUF 7 · lost 3 · -2.08 EP · −10.3% win probability
174 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 186 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 186 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 87 yards from the LAC 12 for a end of half. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, LAC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
186 of 186 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
186
EPA per play
-0.00
Success rate
43%
Yards
701
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR63+0.0778%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49-0.0745%
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR6+0.1267%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.3160%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
186 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
186 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter47 plays
Punt6 plays
Chargers0Bills6
Chargers0Bills7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bills 37 to the Chargers 2
Chargers6Bills7
Touchdown15 plays, from the Chargers 21 to the Bills 5
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Bills 39
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Chargers 22
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 38 to the Bills 39
The period ended5 plays, from the Chargers 15 to the Chargers 27
2nd quarter46 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Chargers 28 to the Chargers 35
Chargers6Bills13
Chargers6Bills14
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bills 24 to the Chargers 20
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 31 to the Chargers 44
Chargers6Bills17
Field goal14 plays, from the Bills 14 to the Chargers 15
Punt11 plays, from the Chargers 19 to the Bills 48
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Chargers6Bills23
Chargers6Bills24
Touchdown14 plays, from the Bills 43 to the Chargers 3
Chargers12Bills24
Chargers14Bills24
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chargers 33 to the Bills 1
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 32 to midfield
The period ended7 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Bills 25
4th quarter54 plays
Turnover on downs1 play
Fumble lost2 plays, from the Bills 26 to the Bills 37
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Chargers17Bills24
Field goal10 plays, from the Bills 46 to the Bills 7
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Bills 34 to the Chargers 22
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 22 to the Chargers 27
Intercepted4 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Bills 40
Intercepted3 plays, from the Chargers 44 to the Chargers 48
Chargers17Bills27
Field goal9 plays, from the Bills 35 to the Chargers 24
The period ended18 plays, from the Chargers 12 to the Bills 1
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
