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Atlanta Falcons 43, Raiders 6 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 2:34, 1st and 10, on Johnathan Abram — 16.2 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 2:34 · 1st and 10
Johnathan Abram
Raiders
(2:34) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle intended for 81-H.Hurst INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Abram (31-I.Johnson) at LV 33. 24-J.Abram to LV 38 for 5 yards (81-H.Hurst).
U 53 ✓
Dome
Raiders closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Atlanta Falcons 43–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 2:34, Raiders +16.2% win probability on one snap.
16.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Henry RuggsRaidersQ1 0:14(:14) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 11-H.Ruggs ran ob at ATL 3 for 36 yards.
12.9pts
Deion JonesFalconsQ3 11:48(11:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle intended for 23-D.Booker INTERCEPTED by 45-D.Jones at ATL 33. 45-D.Jones for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LV-74-K.Miller, Illegal Formation, declined.
11.5pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Falcons won this one — 1 giveaway, against Raiders at 6 giveaways.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Falcons won this one — -0.09 expected points per carry, against Raiders at -1.04 expected points per carry.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Falcons won this one — -0.08 expected points per snap, against Raiders at -0.72 expected points per snap.
Falconsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Falcons won this one — 3 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Raiders at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 23 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Raiders177 of 187 plays carry both curves
(2:34) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle intended for 81-H.Hurst INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Abram (31-I.Johnson) at LV 33. 24-J.Abram to LV 38 for 5 yards (81-H.Hurst).
Swing −16.2 for FalconsExpected points −5.11 for FalconsThe model had Falcons 12 points higher than the market did.play 36
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 2:34LV +16% win prob(2:34) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle intended for 81-H.Hurst INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Abram (31-I.Johnson) at LV 33. 24-J.Abram to LV 38 for 5 yards (81-H.Hurst).
1st · 0:14ATL +13% win prob(:14) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 11-H.Ruggs ran ob at ATL 3 for 36 yards.
3rd · 11:48LV +11% win prob(11:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle intended for 23-D.Booker INTERCEPTED by 45-D.Jones at ATL 33. 45-D.Jones for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LV-74-K.Miller, Illegal Formation, declined.
2nd · 2:23ATL +11% win prob(2:23) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 18-C.Ridley for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-J.Hankins].
2nd · 1:08LV +11% win prob(1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Carr sacked at ATL 39 for -9 yards (91-J.Tuioti-Mariner). FUMBLES (91-J.Tuioti-Mariner) [91-J.Tuioti-Mariner], RECOVERED by ATL-91-J.Tuioti-Mariner at ATL 38. 91-J.Tuioti-Mariner to ATL 39 for 1 yard (71-D.Good).
2nd · 4:29ATL +10% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Younghoe Koo's 38-yard field goal with 8:31 left in the 1st put Atlanta Falcons ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 10 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:31Younghoe Koo·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder S.Hofrichter · snap J.HarrisLead never changed again+30–3
1st7:10Younghoe Koo·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder S.Hofrichter · snap J.Harris+30–6
2nd13:04Daniel Carlson·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder A.Cole · snap T.Sieg+33–6
2nd2:23Calvin Ridley·4-yd TD catch4-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan+73–13
2nd0:06Younghoe Koo·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder S.Hofrichter · snap J.Harris+33–16
4th5:03Younghoe Koo·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder S.Hofrichter · snap J.Harris+36–43
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Raiderscategory by categoryFalcons
Raiders0–9Falcons
243Total yards308
4.2Yards per play4.5
26%Success rate36%
25%Third-down rate50%
0Red-zone touchdowns3
2Explosive plays3
13First downs18
5Sacks taken1
6Turnovers1
The read
Falcons ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±1.04 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.72Raiders: −0.72 expected points added per play
−0.08Falcons: −0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.63Raiders: −0.63 expected points added per play
−0.08Falcons: −0.08 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−1.04Raiders: −1.04 expected points added per play
−0.09Falcons: −0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 58 snaps at a 78% dropback rate against Falcons’s 69 at 59%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 2, Falcons 6.
NoteFalcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.72.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 12Against their seasonOver Expected
LV's pass rate over expected, +5.3 pts, is past their previous high of +2.5 pts in week 7 — the highest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 16 pts
leaned — got home · +7.3 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+1.16× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Falcons13.3%
right on their number · +0.1 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLV's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 72.7%, 18.6 points above their season mean of 54.1% and 1.5 times their own 12.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Carr pass+13% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:14) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 11-H.Ruggs ran ob at ATL 3 for 36 yards.
Q1 0:14 · Raiders · 4th & 3 at ATL 39 · gained 36 · +5.80 EP · +13.3% win probability
175 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 187 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 187 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was ATL moving 88 yards from the ATL 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
187 of 187 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
187
EPA per play
-0.23
Success rate
34%
Yards
547
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41+0.0566%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40-0.6178%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR11-0.2436%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.1238%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR6+0.9783%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-1.9260%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Falcons0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Falcons2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Falcons1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
187 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
187 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 26
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Raiders 36 to the Raiders 45
Raiders0Falcons3
Field goal7 plays, from the Raiders 45 to the Raiders 20
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFive
Fumble lost2 plays
Raiders0Falcons6
Field goal4 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 30
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Falcons 29 to the Raiders 43
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
The period ended6 plays, from the Raiders 38 to the Falcons 39
2nd quarter57 plays
Raiders3Falcons6
Field goal6 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 32
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 23 to the Raiders 35
Raiders3Falcons12
Raiders3Falcons13
Touchdown19 plays, from the Falcons 18 to the Raiders 4
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Falcons 30
Raiders3Falcons16
Field goal11 plays, from the Falcons 39 to the Raiders 12
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter49 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 26
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 11 to the Falcons 20
Raiders3Falcons22
Touchdown2 plays
Raiders3Falcons23
Raiders6Falcons23
Field goal14 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Falcons 5
Raiders6Falcons29
Raiders6Falcons30
Touchdown17 plays, from the Falcons 12 to the Raiders 4
Fumble lost2 plays
The period ended4 plays, from the Raiders 27 to the Raiders 15
4th quarter39 plays
Raiders6Falcons33
Field goal3 plays, from the Raiders 13 to the Raiders 8
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 44
Raiders6Falcons39
Raiders6Falcons40
Touchdown5 plays, from the Raiders 35 to the Raiders 8
Punt6 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 29
Raiders6Falcons43
Field goal7 plays, from the Falcons 31 to the Raiders 36
Punt10 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Falcons 43
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Raiders -3.5
Closing total
53
Raiders moneyline
-184
Falcons moneyline
+164
Raiders closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 53; the game landed 49 — under by 4.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
Raiders 7 days · Falcons 7 days
Coaches
Jon Gruden vs Raheem Morris
(4:29) 7-Y.Koo 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-4-S.Hofrichter. PENALTY on LV-32-D.Leavitt, Roughing the Kicker, 11 yards, enforced at LV 22 - No Play.
1st · 8:20LV +9% win prob(8:20) 4-D.Carr sacked at LV 20 for -6 yards (54-F.Oluokun). FUMBLES (54-F.Oluokun) [54-F.Oluokun], RECOVERED by ATL-91-J.Tuioti-Mariner at LV 21.
2nd · 11:33ATL +7% win prob(11:33) 4-S.Hofrichter punts 35 yards to LV 33, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow. PENALTY on LV-26-N.Lawson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 33.
