2020 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 29, 2020 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Las Vegas Raiders

Atlanta FalconsWinner

LV -3.5 upsetU 53 ✓DomeRaiders closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Atlanta Falcons 43–6 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 2:34, LV +16% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 2:34LV — ATL ATL ball · 1st & 10ATL 64%

(2:34) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle intended for 81-H.Hurst INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Abram (31-I.Johnson) at LV 33. 24-J.Abram to LV 38 for 5 yards (81-H.Hurst).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 2:34LV +16% win prob(2:34) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle intended for 81-H.Hurst INTERCEPTED by 24-J.Abram (31-I.Johnson) at LV 33. 24-J.Abram to LV 38 for 5 yards (81-H.Hurst).
Q1 · 0:14ATL +13% win prob(:14) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 11-H.Ruggs ran ob at ATL 3 for 36 yards.
Q3 · 11:48LV +11% win prob(11:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle intended for 23-D.Booker INTERCEPTED by 45-D.Jones at ATL 33. 45-D.Jones for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LV-74-K.Miller, Illegal Formation, declined.
Q2 · 2:23ATL +11% win prob(2:23) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 18-C.Ridley for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-J.Hankins].

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Raiders	Falcons
Offensive plays	58	69
Total yards	243	308 (edge)
Yards per play	4.2	4.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.72	-0.08 (edge)
Success rate	26%	36% (edge)
Dropback rate	78%	59%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.63	-0.08 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-1.04	-0.09 (edge)
Third downs	3/12	9/18 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	2	3 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	13	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	5	1 (edge)
Turnovers	6	1 (edge)

Falcons won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.72.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LV

Derek CarrQB

22/34, 215 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-26.3 expected points added · -2.8% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

22/39, 185 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-3.4 expected points added · -6.1% completion over expected

Rushing · ATL

Ito SmithRB

12 att, 65 yds, 1 TD

3.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Brian HillRB

13 att, 55 yds, 0 TD

-3.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Hunter RenfrowWR

7/9 for 73 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 1.0 expected points added

Receiving · LV

Henry RuggsWR

3/5 for 56 yds, 0 TD

14% of team targets · 5.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 25	5	11	1:15	Punt
2	LV	LV 36	4	4	2:18	Turnover on downs
3	ATL	LV 45	7	25	3:01	Turnover on downs
4	LV	LV 26	2	-5	0:12	Fumble
5	ATL	LV 21	4	0	1:08	Turnover on downs
6	LV	LV 25	6	15	2:28	Punt
7	ATL	ATL 29	5	28	2:14	Interception
8	LV	LV 38	9	71	4:25	Fumble
9	ATL	ATL 25	5	7	1:34	Punt
10	LV	LV 23	4	5	1:47	Punt
11	ATL	ATL 18	14	66	7:21	Touchdown
12	LV	LV 25	8	32	1:16	Fumble
13	ATL	ATL 39	8	34	0:59	Turnover on downs
14	LV	—	1	0	0:02	End of half
15	LV	LV 25	5	1	1:02	Punt
16	ATL	ATL 11	4	5	2:05	Punt
17	LV	ATL 36	2	0	0:17	Defensive touchdown
18	LV	LV 25	13	69	4:57	Turnover on downs
19	ATL	ATL 12	13	48	4:39	Touchdown
20	LV	LV 10	2	16	0:19	Fumble
21	ATL	LV 27	6	16	3:08	Turnover on downs
22	LV	LV 25	4	11	1:20	Fumble
23	ATL	LV 35	5	35	1:25	Touchdown
24	LV	LV 25	5	4	1:24	Punt
25	ATL	ATL 31	7	33	4:27	Turnover on downs
26	LV	LV 25	10	20	3:15	Punt
27	ATL	ATL 17	3	0	1:42	End of game

0 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Raiders gained 71 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a fumble.

Full stat lines

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	22/34	215	0	1	3	-26.3
Nathan Peterman	3/5	25	0	0	2	-3.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Josh Jacobs	7	27	3.9	-10.1
Nathan Peterman	1	9	9.0	1.3
Devontae Booker	5	6	1.2	-2.5
Henry Ruggs	1	-2	-2.0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Hunter Renfrow	7	9	73	24%	1.0
Henry Ruggs	3	5	56	14%	5.0
Nelson Agholor	5	6	54	16%	2.4
Darren Waller	4	7	23	19%	-2.6
Josh Jacobs	3	3	17	8%	-1.3
Bryan Edwards	1	2	15	5%	1.1
Zay Jones	1	1	3	3%	-0.5
Devontae Booker	1	4	-1	11%	-13.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jeff Heath	9	1	0.0	0	0
Nicholas Morrow	9	0	0.0	0	2
Johnathan Abram	5	1	0.0	1	1
Nick Kwiatkoski	4	2	1.0	0	0
Johnathan Hankins	3	2	0.0	0	0
Cory Littleton	4	0	0.0	0	0
Maurice Hurst	2	1	0.0	0	0
Trayvon Mullen	1	2	0.0	0	2
Nevin Lawson	3	0	0.0	0	0
Dallin Leavitt	1	0	0.0	0	0

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	22/39	185	2	1	1	-3.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ito Smith	12	65	5.4	1	3.1
Brian Hill	13	55	4.2	0	-3.1
Matt Ryan	1	5	5.0	0	0.0
Tony Brooks-James	3	4	1.3	0	-2.4
Matt Schaub	3	-4	-1.3	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Calvin Ridley	6	9	50	1	24%	7.6
Hayden Hurst	4	8	48	0	22%	-4.1
Russell Gage	3	5	34	0	14%	0.2
Christian Blake	1	1	17	0	3%	2.3
Olamide Zaccheaus	1	3	11	0	8%	-0.2
Jaeden Graham	1	2	11	0	5%	-0.8
Ito Smith	4	5	10	0	14%	-4.0
Brandon Powell	2	2	4	1	5%	0.9
Brian Hill	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4
Keith Smith	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jacob Tuioti-Mariner	4	2	1.0	0	0
Steven Means	3	3	1.0	0	0
Keanu Neal	3	1	0.0	0	0
Deion Jones	2	2	0.0	1	1
Foyesade Oluokun	4	0	1.0	0	0
A.J. Terrell	3	1	0.0	0	1
Darqueze Dennard	4	0	0.0	0	1
Charles Harris	1	2	0.0	0	0
Isaiah Oliver	1	2	0.0	0	0
Kendall Sheffield	2	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LV -3.5
Closing total: 53
LV moneyline: -184
ATL moneyline: +164

Raiders closed -3.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 53; the game landed 49 — under by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: LV 7 days · ATL 7 days
Coaches: Jon Gruden vs Raheem Morris