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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 2:26 AM ET · 15 to play · 1 final
Miami Dolphins 20, Jets 3 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 12:20, 3rd and 9, on Breshad Perriman — 8.9 win-probability points to the Jets on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Dolphins closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 17.
Miami Dolphins 20–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:20, Jets +8.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 12:20 · 3rd and 9
Breshad Perriman
Jets
(12:20) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 19-B.Perriman ran ob at MIA 18 for 37 yards.
8.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Mike GesickiDolphinsQ2 9:02(9:02) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
8.2pts
Patrick LairdJetsQ3 0:52(:52) (Shotgun) 32-P.Laird left guard to MIA 39 for 9 yards (48-J.Jenkins). FUMBLES (48-J.Jenkins), RECOVERED by NYJ-46-N.Hewitt at MIA 43. 46-N.Hewitt to MIA 26 for 17 yards (19-J.Grant).
5.5pts
What separated them
Red zone
Dolphins won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Jets at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Dolphins won this one — 8 of 15 on third down, against Jets at 3 of 13 on third down.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Dolphins won this one — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jets at 30% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.14 expected points per dropback, against Jets at -0.33 expected points per dropback.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 16.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 35 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Dolphins153 of 159 plays carry both curves
(12:20) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 19-B.Perriman ran ob at MIA 18 for 37 yards.
Swing +8.9 for JetsExpected points +3.73 for JetsThe model had Jets 31 points higher than the market did.play 8
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 12:20NYJ +9% win prob(12:20) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 19-B.Perriman ran ob at MIA 18 for 37 yards.
2nd · 9:02NYJ +8% win prob(9:02) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 0:52MIA +5% win prob(:52) (Shotgun) 32-P.Laird left guard to MIA 39 for 9 yards (48-J.Jenkins). FUMBLES (48-J.Jenkins), RECOVERED by NYJ-46-N.Hewitt at MIA 43. 46-N.Hewitt to MIA 26 for 17 yards (19-J.Grant).
1st · 9:13NYJ +5% win prob(9:13) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 81-D.Smythe to MIA 34 for 12 yards (44-H.Langi).
1st · 10:26MIA +5% win prob(10:26) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold sacked at MIA 20 for -9 yards (29-Br.Jones).
1st · 2:18NYJ +5% win prob(2:18) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki pushed ob at NYJ 41 for 22 yards (20-M.Maye).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mike Gesicki's 13-yard touchdown catch with 9:02 left in the 2nd put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:50Sergio Castillo·38-yd field goal38-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap T.Hennessy+30–3
1st1:17Jason Sanders·54-yd field goal54-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap B.Ferguson+33–3
2nd9:02Mike Gesicki·13-yd TD catch13-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Fitzpatrickfrom Ryan FitzpatrickLead never changed again+710–3
2nd5:28Jason Sanders·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap B.Ferguson+313–3
4th6:59Adam Shaheen·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Fitzpatrickfrom Ryan Fitzpatrick+720–3
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Dolphinscategory by categoryJets
Dolphins6–2Jets
347Total yards260
5.3Yards per play4.9
42%Success rate30%
53%Third-down rate23%
2Red-zone touchdowns0
5Explosive plays6
19First downs10
4Sacks taken3
2Turnovers2
The read
Dolphins ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.04Dolphins: −0.04 expected points added per play
−0.34Jets: −0.34 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.14Dolphins: +0.14 expected points added per play
−0.33Jets: −0.33 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.39Dolphins: −0.39 expected points added per play
−0.36Jets: −0.36 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Dolphins ran 66 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Jets’s 53 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Dolphins 3, Jets 3.
NoteDolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.34.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 19 pts
right on their number · +0.1 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.02× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Jets18.6%
inside their normal wobble · +5.5 vs their 13.1%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (+0.62× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYJ's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -11.3 pts, 7.1 points below their season mean of -4.2 pts and 1.3 times their own 5.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Dolphins attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Dolphins←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
S.Darnold pass+13% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(12:20) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 19-B.Perriman ran ob at MIA 18 for 37 yards.
Q1 12:20 · Jets · 3rd & 9 at NYJ 45 · gained 37 · +3.73 EP · +13.3% win probability
151 snaps placed · 8 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 159 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 88 yards from the MIA 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, MIA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
159 of 159 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
159
EPA per play
-0.18
Success rate
35%
Yards
605
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.3753%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR27+0.0367%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR21-0.2048%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR14+0.0886%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.5318%
Jets0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR9-0.18100%
Jets0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo tight ends and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Dolphins0Jets3
Field goal11 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Dolphins 11
Punt13 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Jets 38
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 9 to the Jets 23
Dolphins3Jets3
Field goal7 plays, from the Dolphins 29 to the Jets 36
The period ended4 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 44
2nd quarter43 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Jets 47 to midfield
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Dolphins9Jets3
Dolphins10Jets3
Touchdown12 plays, from the Dolphins 12 to the Jets 11
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 29
Dolphins13Jets3
Field goal6 plays, from the Dolphins 31 to the Jets 33
No good16 plays, from the Jets 7 to the Dolphins 11
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo tight ends and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw6.1 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Jets 38 to the Dolphins 32
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 23 to the Dolphins 48
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 24 to the Jets 43
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Dolphins 18 to the Dolphins 47
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 45 to the Dolphins 44
Offense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Dolphins 34
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter34 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxNine defenders
Turnover on downs3 plays, from the Dolphins 24 to the Dolphins 17
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 18 to the Dolphins 27
Punt4 plays
Dolphins19Jets3
Dolphins20Jets3
Touchdown10 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Jets 7
Intercepted3 plays, from the Jets 34 to the Jets 36
The period ended10 plays, from the Jets 40 to the Jets 5
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Dolphinscategory by categoryJets
Dolphins0
Jets3
