2020 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 29, 2020 · MetLife Stadium

Miami DolphinsWinner

New York Jets

MIA -7.5 ✓U 46 ✓Dolphins closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 17.

Miami Dolphins 20–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 12:20, NYJ +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 12:20MIA — NYJ NYJ ball · 3rd & 9MIA 78%

(12:20) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 19-B.Perriman ran ob at MIA 18 for 37 yards.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 12:20NYJ +9% win prob(12:20) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 19-B.Perriman ran ob at MIA 18 for 37 yards.
Q2 · 9:02NYJ +8% win prob(9:02) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 88-M.Gesicki for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 0:52MIA +5% win prob(:52) (Shotgun) 32-P.Laird left guard to MIA 39 for 9 yards (48-J.Jenkins). FUMBLES (48-J.Jenkins), RECOVERED by NYJ-46-N.Hewitt at MIA 43. 46-N.Hewitt to MIA 26 for 17 yards (19-J.Grant).
Q1 · 9:13NYJ +5% win prob(9:13) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short middle to 81-D.Smythe to MIA 34 for 12 yards (44-H.Langi).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Dolphins	Jets
Offensive plays	66	53
Total yards	347 (edge)	260
Yards per play	5.3 (edge)	4.9
Expected points added / play	-0.04 (edge)	-0.34
Success rate	42% (edge)	30%
Dropback rate	65%	60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.14 (edge)	-0.33
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.39	-0.36 (edge)
Third downs	8/15 (edge)	3/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	10
Sacks taken	4	3 (edge)
Turnovers	2	2

Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.04 expected points added per play vs -0.34.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Ryan FitzpatrickQB

24/39, 257 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

6.1 expected points added · -6.2% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Sam DarnoldQB

16/27, 197 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-11.9 expected points added · -3.8% completion over expected

Rushing · NYJ

Frank GoreRB

18 att, 74 yds, 0 TD

-6.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIA

DeAndre WashingtonRB

13 att, 49 yds, 0 TD

-3.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

DeVante ParkerWR

8/14 for 119 yds, 0 TD

36% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added

Receiving · NYJ

Breshad PerrimanWR

4/8 for 79 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · 0.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYJ	NYJ 25	10	65	5:15	Turnover on downs
2	MIA	MIA 25	10	42	3:20	Punt
3	NYJ	NYJ 9	6	14	2:55	Punt
4	MIA	MIA 29	7	35	2:18	Turnover on downs
5	NYJ	NYJ 25	6	25	2:05	Punt
6	MIA	MIA 12	11	83	5:11	Touchdown
7	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	4	1:03	Punt
8	MIA	MIA 31	6	36	2:30	Turnover on downs
9	NYJ	NYJ 7	14	82	5:23	Turnover on downs
10	MIA	MIA 25	5	-6	1:00	Punt
11	NYJ	NYJ 38	5	40	3:09	Interception
12	MIA	MIA 23	6	19	1:41	Punt
13	NYJ	NYJ 24	5	19	2:28	Punt
14	MIA	MIA 18	6	27	2:33	Fumble
15	NYJ	MIA 45	4	1	0:56	Punt
16	MIA	MIA 20	6	19	2:35	Fumble
17	NYJ	MIA 26	4	8	2:14	Turnover on downs
18	MIA	MIA 18	4	9	1:30	Punt
19	NYJ	NYJ 42	4	0	1:21	Punt
20	MIA	MIA 20	8	48	3:39	Touchdown
21	NYJ	NYJ 34	3	2	0:34	Interception
22	MIA	NYJ 40	9	35	6:20	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 83 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Fitzpatrick	24/39	257	2	0	4	6.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
DeAndre Washington	13	49	3.8	-3.3
Matt Breida	8	36	4.5	-3.0
Ryan Fitzpatrick	3	10	3.3	-3.7
Patrick Laird	1	9	9.0	-4.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
DeVante Parker	8	14	119	0	36%	4.6
Mike Gesicki	2	5	35	1	13%	2.9
Mack Hollins	2	3	19	0	8%	0.9
Durham Smythe	3	3	19	0	8%	1.0
Matt Breida	2	2	17	0	5%	0.7
Jakeem Grant	2	2	15	0	5%	1.9
DeAndre Washington	2	5	11	0	13%	-0.7
Malcolm Perry	1	1	8	0	3%	0.5
Antonio Callaway	1	1	7	0	3%	0.3
Adam Shaheen	1	2	7	1	5%	0.8
Lynn Bowden	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jerome Baker	4	1	0.5	0	0
Nik Needham	3	2	0.0	1	1
Kyle Van Noy	3	2	1.0	0	0
Elandon Roberts	1	4	0.5	0	0
Emmanuel Ogbah	3	2	0.0	0	0
Christian Wilkins	3	1	0.0	0	0
Andrew Van Ginkel	2	2	0.0	0	0
Zach Sieler	1	2	0.0	0	0
Raekwon Davis	1	2	0.0	0	0
Brandon Jones	2	1	1.0	0	0

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	16/27	197	0	2	3	-11.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Frank Gore	18	74	4.1	-6.5
Sam Darnold	2	9	4.5	1.3
Ty Johnson	2	3	1.5	-0.6
Josh Adams	1	1	1.0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Breshad Perriman	4	8	79	30%	0.3
Denzel Mims	4	8	67	30%	0.1
Jamison Crowder	3	5	31	19%	-3.1
Frank Gore	3	3	12	11%	-0.6
Jeff Smith	1	1	7	4%	-0.6
Ty Johnson	1	2	1	7%	-2.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Harvey Langi	3	5	0.0	0
Bryce Hall	5	1	0.0	1
Quinnen Williams	3	3	1.5	2
Lamar Jackson	5	0	0.0	0
Neville Hewitt	2	3	1.0	0
Jordan Jenkins	1	4	0.5	0
Folorunso Fatukasi	1	3	1.0	0
Henry Anderson	2	2	0.0	0
Arthur Maulet	2	1	0.0	1
Marcus Maye	3	0	0.0	2

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIA -7.5
Closing total: 46
MIA moneyline: -350
NYJ moneyline: +296

Dolphins closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 17.

Total closed 46; the game landed 23 — under by 23.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 54°F, wind 2 mph
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: MIA 7 days · NYJ 7 days
Coaches: Brian Flores vs Adam Gase

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.