2020 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 29, 2020 · Empower Field at Mile High

New Orleans SaintsWinner

Denver Broncos

NO -17 ✓U 36.5 ✓Saints closed -17 and covered, winning by 28.

New Orleans Saints 31–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:12, NO +7% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 10:12NO — DEN NO ball · 3rd & 7NO 92%

(10:12) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NO, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NO 33 - No Play.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 10:12NO +7% win prob(10:12) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NO, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NO 33 - No Play.
Q1 · 14:21DEN +7% win prob(14:21) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 30-P.Lindsay. 30-P.Lindsay up the middle pushed ob at DEN 40 for 13 yards (23-M.Lattimore).
Q1 · 12:16NO +7% win prob(12:16) 6-S.Martin punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.
Q1 · 9:14DEN +5% win prob(9:14) 6-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to DEN 38, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 29-B.Callahan.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Broncos
Offensive plays	63	43
Total yards	292 (edge)	112
Yards per play	4.6 (edge)	2.6
Expected points added / play	0.05 (edge)	-0.72
Success rate	43% (edge)	19%
Dropback rate	33%	26%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.48 (edge)	-1.17
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.31 (edge)	-0.56
Third downs	7/15 (edge)	1/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	6
Sacks taken	3	1 (edge)
Turnovers	1 (edge)	3

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.72.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Taysom HillTE

9/16, 78 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-8.2 expected points added · -3.3% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Kendall HintonWR

1/9, 13 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-11.9 expected points added · -36.2% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Latavius MurrayRB

19 att, 124 yds, 2 TD

7.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

11 att, 54 yds, 0 TD

1.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Michael ThomasWR

4/6 for 50 yds, 0 TD

43% of team targets · -2.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DEN	DEN 25	7	22	2:52	Punt
2	NO	NO 20	6	5	3:02	Punt
3	DEN	DEN 38	4	-2	1:28	Punt
4	NO	NO 28	4	-1	1:57	Punt
5	DEN	DEN 15	4	6	2:21	Punt
6	NO	NO 26	14	69	8:01	Touchdown
7	DEN	DEN 25	5	1	0:56	Punt
8	NO	NO 27	6	11	2:51	Punt
9	DEN	DEN 25	4	-1	1:01	Punt
10	NO	NO 34	4	2	1:37	Punt
11	DEN	DEN 36	3	9	1:32	Fumble
12	NO	DEN 13	6	13	1:19	Touchdown
13	DEN	DEN 25	3	2	0:51	Interception
14	NO	DEN 41	2	24	0:12	Turnover on downs
15	NO	NO 25	5	6	2:11	Punt
16	DEN	DEN 23	5	21	2:45	Interception
17	NO	50	3	-2	1:01	Interception
18	DEN	NO 40	4	1	2:07	Turnover on downs
19	NO	NO 18	10	82	4:42	Touchdown
20	DEN	DEN 25	8	14	4:17	Punt
21	NO	NO 23	12	77	6:54	Touchdown
22	DEN	DEN 25	6	15	2:17	Punt
23	NO	NO 21	4	6	1:59	Punt
24	DEN	DEN 24	3	24	1:47	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 82 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Taysom Hill	9/16	78	0	1	3	-8.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Latavius Murray	19	124	6.5	2	7.5
Alvin Kamara	11	54	4.9	0	1.3
Taysom Hill	10	44	4.4	2	4.3
Dwayne Washington	3	6	2.0	0	-1.3
Michael Thomas	1	1	1.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Thomas	4	6	50	43%	-2.0
Tre'Quan Smith	1	1	16	7%	1.1
Adam Trautman	1	1	8	7%	2.3
Emmanuel Sanders	1	1	4	7%	-0.1
Latavius Murray	1	1	2	7%	-0.5
Jared Cook	0	2	0	14%	-1.2
Alvin Kamara	1	2	-2	14%	-2.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Demario Davis	7	3	0.0
Malcolm Jenkins	3	1	0.0
Kwon Alexander	1	2	0.0
Malcom Brown	2	1	0.0
Marcus Davenport	3	0	0.0
D.J. Swearinger	2	0	0.0
Shy Tuttle	2	0	0.0
Cameron Jordan	2	0	1.0
Craig Robertson	2	0	0.0
Alvin Kamara	1	0	0.0

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kendall Hinton	1/9	13	0	2	1	-11.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Royce Freeman	8	50	6.3	-0.2
Melvin Gordon	12	31	2.6	-4.4
Phillip Lindsay	9	20	2.2	-8.9
Kendall Hinton	2	7	3.5	-1.4
K.J. Hamler	2	-8	-4.0	-4.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Noah Fant	1	2	13	25%	1.1
Nick Vannett	0	1	0	13%	-0.8
Tim Patrick	0	2	0	25%	-1.9
DaeSean Hamilton	0	1	0	13%	-1.6
Troy Fumagalli	0	1	0	13%	-4.7
Jerry Jeudy	0	1	0	13%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Alexander Johnson	7	1	0.0	0
Dre'Mont Jones	4	4	0.0	0
Josey Jewell	4	3	0.0	0
Malik Reed	5	2	0.0	0
Bradley Chubb	1	5	1.0	0
Jeremiah Attaochu	1	2	0.0	0
DeShawn Williams	1	2	0.0	0
Justin Simmons	2	1	0.0	0
DeMarcus Walker	2	1	2.0	0
Michael Ojemudia	3	0	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -17
Closing total: 36.5
NO moneyline: -1350
DEN moneyline: +906

Saints closed -17 and covered, winning by 28.

Total closed 36.5; the game landed 34 — under by 2.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 38°F, wind 6 mph
Referee: Craig Wrolstad
Rest: NO 7 days · DEN 7 days
Coaches: Sean Payton vs Vic Fangio