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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:23 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2020 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 29, 2020 · Empower Field at Mile High
FinalThe verdict · 2020 Week 12
It turned at Q1 10:12, 3rd and 7 — 6.9 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
New Orleans Saints 31–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:12, Broncos +6.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 10:12 · 3rd and 7
Unnamed on the sheet
Broncos
(10:12) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NO, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NO 33 - No Play.
6.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Running the ball
Saints won this one — +0.31 expected points per carry, against Broncos at -0.56 expected points per carry.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Saints won this one — +0.05 expected points per snap, against Broncos at -0.72 expected points per snap.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Saints won this one — 43% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Broncos at 19% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Saints won this one — 7 of 15 on third down, against Broncos at 1 of 10 on third down.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 17.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 47 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
(10:12) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NO, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NO 33 - No Play.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Taysom Hill's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 10:23 left in the 2nd put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Saintscategory by categoryBroncos
Saints ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±1.17 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 63 snaps at a 33% dropback rate against Broncos’s 43 at 26%. Red-zone trips: Saints 4, Broncos 0.
Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.72.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
5 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DEN's pass rate over expected, −44.9 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 12 — 17.4 points clear of the next team along.
43 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.7 points. · −3.3σ from their own normal
DEN's early-down pass rate, 15.2%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 12 — 11.9 points clear of the next team along.
33 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.4 points. · −2.4σ from their own normal
NO's pass rate over expected, −23.8 pts, is past their previous low of −14.8 pts in week 4 — the lowest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points. · −2.7σ from their own normal
NO's early-down pass rate, 27.1%, is past their previous low of 36.5% in week 4 — the lowest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.3 points. · −2.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
5 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -50 pts to 24 pts
Over Expected room →Saints-23.8 ptsoff script — ran more than the situation asked · −20.0 vs their -3.8 pts, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−2.72× that swing) · 63 snaps
Broncos-44.9 ptsoff script — ran more than the situation asked · −38.2 vs their -6.7 pts, and they swing ±11.7 week to week (−3.26× that swing) · 43 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 9% to 92%
Tendencies room →Saints27.1%off script — ran early · −24.2 vs their 51.3%, and they swing ±11.3 week to week (−2.14× that swing) · 48 early downs
Broncos15.2%off script — ran early · −37.5 vs their 52.6%, and they swing ±15.4 week to week (−2.44× that swing) · 33 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21% to 56%
Fourth Down room →Saints—Only 1 fourth-and-short call tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 20.4%.
Broncos—Only 2 fourth-and-short calls tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 15.7%.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -2% to 34%
Tendencies room →Saints—Only 11 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 17.0%.
Broncos19.0%inside their normal wobble · +4.1 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.63× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
DEN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -44.9 pts, 38.2 points below their season mean of -6.7 pts and 3.3 times their own 11.7-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 8 inactive
Inactive · 8
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 6 inactive
Inactive · 6
Who moved the needle
Passing · NO
9/16, 78 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-8.2 expected points added · -3.3% completion over expected
Passing · DEN
1/9, 13 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT
-11.9 expected points added · -36.2% completion over expected
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(2:31) (Shotgun) 30-P.Lindsay Aborted. 79-L.Cushenberry FUMBLES at DEN 40, touched at DEN 39, RECOVERED by NO-58-K.Alexander at DEN 33. 58-K.Alexander to DEN 13 for 20 yards (72-G.Bolles).
Q2 2:31 · Broncos · 3rd & 1 at DEN 45 · gained nothing · -6.38 EP · −18.4% win probability
139 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 148 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 148 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
6 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 82 yards from the NO 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
148 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
148 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Saints6
Broncos0Saints7Broncos0Saints13Broncos0Saints14Broncos0Saints17Broncos0Saints17Broncos3Saints23Broncos3Saints24Broncos3Saints30Broncos3Saints31Broncos3Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Saints at Broncos, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taysom Hill | 9/16 | 78 | 0 | 1 | 3 | −8.2 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latavius Murray | 19 | 124 | 6.5 | 2 | +7.5 |
| Alvin Kamara | 11 | 54 | 4.9 | 0 | +1.3 |
| Taysom Hill |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Thomas | 4 | 6 | 50 | 0 | 43% | −2.0 |
| Tre'Quan Smith | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demario Davis | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malcolm Jenkins | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kwon Alexander |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Hinton | 1/9 | 13 | 0 | 2 | 1 | −11.9 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2020_12_NO_DEN
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Saints closed -17 and covered, winning by 28.
Total closed 36.5; the game landed 34 — under by 2.5.
Conditions and crew
| 10 |
| 44 |
| 4.4 |
| 2 |
| +4.3 |
| Dwayne Washington | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 | −1.3 |
| Michael Thomas | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | −0.5 |
| 7% |
| +1.1 |
| Adam Trautman | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 7% | +2.3 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 7% | −0.1 |
| Latavius Murray | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7% | −0.5 |
| Jared Cook | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 14% | −1.2 |
| Alvin Kamara | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 | 14% | −2.1 |
| 1 |
| 2 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Malcom Brown | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marcus Davenport | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| D.J. Swearinger | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Shy Tuttle | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cameron Jordan | 2 | 0 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Craig Robertson | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alvin Kamara | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Royce Freeman | 8 | 50 | 6.3 | 0 | −0.2 |
| Melvin Gordon | 12 | 31 | 2.6 | 0 | −4.4 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 9 | 20 | 2.2 | 0 | −8.9 |
| Kendall Hinton | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 | −1.4 |
| K.J. Hamler | 2 | -8 | -4.0 | 0 | −4.1 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Fant | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 | 25% | +1.1 |
| Nick Vannett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13% | −0.8 |
| Tim Patrick | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 25% | −1.9 |
| DaeSean Hamilton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13% | −1.6 |
| Troy Fumagalli | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13% | −4.7 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 13% | −1.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Johnson | 7 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Dre'Mont Jones | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Josey Jewell | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Malik Reed | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bradley Chubb | 1 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeremiah Attaochu | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeShawn Williams | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Simmons | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeMarcus Walker | 2 | 1 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Ojemudia | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
