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2020 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 29, 2020 · Empower Field at Mile High
Final
SaintsNew Orleans31
BY 28final margin
BroncosDenver3
New Orleans Saints 31 at Denver Broncos 3. Final.
Saints -17 ✓U 36.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 12
New Orleans Saints 31, Broncos 3 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 10:12, 3rd and 7 — 6.9 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 10:12 · 3rd and 7
Unnamed on the sheet
Broncos
(10:12) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NO, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NO 33 - No Play.
Saints closed -17 and covered, winning by 28.
New Orleans Saints 31–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:12, Broncos +6.9% win probability on one snap.
6.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Phillip LindsayBroncosQ1 14:21(14:21) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 30-P.Lindsay. 30-P.Lindsay up the middle pushed ob at DEN 40 for 13 yards (23-M.Lattimore).
6.6pts
Unnamed on the sheetSaintsQ1 12:16(12:16) 6-S.Martin punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.
6.6pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Saints won this one — +0.31 expected points per carry, against Broncos at -0.56 expected points per carry.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Saints won this one — +0.05 expected points per snap, against Broncos at -0.72 expected points per snap.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Saints won this one — 43% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Broncos at 19% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Saintsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Saints won this one — 7 of 15 on third down, against Broncos at 1 of 10 on third down.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 47 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Broncoshigher on Saints141 of 148 plays carry both curves
(10:12) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NO, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NO 33 - No Play.
Swing +6.9 for BroncosExpected points +0.78 for BroncosThe model had Broncos 45 points higher than the market did.play 13
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 10:12NO +7% win prob(10:12) (Shotgun) PENALTY on NO, Delay of Game, 5 yards, enforced at NO 33 - No Play.
1st · 14:21DEN +7% win prob(14:21) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 30-P.Lindsay. 30-P.Lindsay up the middle pushed ob at DEN 40 for 13 yards (23-M.Lattimore).
1st · 12:16NO +7% win prob(12:16) 6-S.Martin punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.
1st · 9:14DEN +5% win prob(9:14) 6-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to DEN 38, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 29-B.Callahan.
1st · 6:23NO +3% win prob(6:23) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill sacked at NO 28 for -5 yards (55-B.Chubb).
1st · 0:25DEN +3% win prob(:25) 41-A.Kamara right guard pushed ob at DEN 38 for 15 yards (21-A.Bouye).
1st · 9:53NO +3% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Taysom Hill's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 10:23 left in the 2nd put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd10:23Taysom Hill·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
Saints ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±1.17 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.05Saints: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.72Broncos: −0.72 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.48Saints: −0.48 expected points added per play
−1.17Broncos: −1.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.31Saints: +0.31 expected points added per play
−0.56Broncos: −0.56 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 63 snaps at a 33% dropback rate against Broncos’s 43 at 26%. Red-zone trips: Saints 4, Broncos 0.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.72.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
5 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
DEN's pass rate over expected, −44.9 pts, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 12 — 17.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of −11.3 pts in week 7.
3.3 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 3.4-swing turn from week 11.
43 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.7 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DEN's early-down pass rate, 15.2%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 12 — 11.9 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 36.2% in week 6.
2.4 times their own weekly swing below their number.
33 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 15.4 points.
low through week 12Against their seasonOver Expected
NO's pass rate over expected, −23.8 pts, is past their previous low of −14.8 pts in week 4 — the lowest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
2.7 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 3.1-swing turn from week 11.
63 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points.
NO's early-down pass rate, 27.1%, is past their previous low of 36.5% in week 4 — the lowest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
2.1 times their own weekly swing below their number.
48 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
5 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -50 pts to 24 pts
Only 11 dropbacks tonight — too few to read a tendency. Their season number is 17.0%.
Broncos19.0%
inside their normal wobble · +4.1 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+0.63× that swing) · 21 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDEN's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -44.9 pts, 38.2 points below their season mean of -6.7 pts and 3.3 times their own 11.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 8 inactive
51Cesar RuizG · Every snap100%64 snaps
74James HurstG · Every snap100%64 snaps
62Nick EastonG · Every snap100%64 snaps
71Ryan RamczykT · Full-time95%61 snaps
78Erik McCoyC · Full-time95%61 snaps
7Taysom HillQB · Full-time95%61 snaps
13Michael ThomasWR · Heavy rotation67%43 snaps
82Adam TrautmanTE · Heavy rotation61%39 snaps
89Josh HillTE · Heavy rotation61%39 snaps
41Alvin KamaraRB · Rotational48%31 snaps
10Tre'Quan SmithWR · Rotational48%31 snaps
28Latavius MurrayRB · Rotational47%30 snaps
17Emmanuel SandersWR · Rotational31%20 snaps
32Michael BurtonFB · Rotational30%19 snaps
87Jared CookTE · Rotational30%19 snaps
64Will ClappC · Rotational28%18 snaps
80Austin CarrWR · Situational23%15 snaps
12Marquez CallawayWR · Situational20%13 snaps
24Dwayne WashingtonRB · Situational5%3 snaps
73Ethan GreenidgeT · Situational5%3 snaps
2Jameis WinstonQB · Situational5%3 snaps
63Cameron TomC · Situational5%3 snaps
Inactive · 8
Ken CrawleyCBMalcolm RoachDTAndrus PeatGDerrick KellyGTrevor SiemianQBTy MontgomeryRBGarrett GriffinTEDeonte HarrisWR
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 6 inactive
61Graham GlasgowG · Every snap100%43 snaps
72Garett BollesT · Every snap100%43 snaps
66Dalton RisnerG · Every snap100%43 snaps
79Lloyd CushenberryC · Every snap100%43 snaps
25Melvin GordonRB · Full-time81%35 snaps
81Tim PatrickWR · Heavy rotation72%31 snaps
87Noah FantTE · Heavy rotation70%30 snaps
13K.J. HamlerWR · Heavy rotation65%28 snaps
2Kendall HintonQB · Heavy rotation56%24 snaps
10Jerry JeudyWR · Heavy rotation51%22 snaps
78Demar DotsonT · Heavy rotation51%22 snaps
68Elijah WilkinsonT · Rotational49%21 snaps
88Nick VannettTE · Rotational47%20 snaps
17DaeSean HamiltonWR · Rotational42%18 snaps
30Phillip LindsayRB · Rotational33%14 snaps
28Royce FreemanRB · Rotational30%13 snaps
84Troy FumagalliTE · Rotational28%12 snaps
16Tyrie ClevelandWR · Rotational26%11 snaps
Inactive · 6
Kevin ToliverCBNetane MutiGMark BarronILBBrett RypienQBDrew LockQBTrey MarshallSS
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Broncos attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Broncos→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Lindsay Aborted−18% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:31) (Shotgun) 30-P.Lindsay Aborted. 79-L.Cushenberry FUMBLES at DEN 40, touched at DEN 39, RECOVERED by NO-58-K.Alexander at DEN 33. 58-K.Alexander to DEN 13 for 20 yards (72-G.Bolles).
Q2 2:31 · Broncos · 3rd & 1 at DEN 45 · gained nothing · -6.38 EP · −18.4% win probability
139 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 148 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 148 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 82 yards from the NO 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DEN attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
148 of 148 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
148
EPA per play
-0.16
Success rate
34%
Yards
404
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR17-0.6541%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR16-0.0250%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13-0.238%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR10+0.0530%
Broncos2 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.510%
Broncos2 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR9-0.580%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR9+0.3633%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-1.1650%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR4——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Broncos2 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
148 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
148 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 47
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Saints 33
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 28 to the Saints 33
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 15 to the Broncos 21
The period ended7 plays, from the Saints 26 to the Saints 47
2nd quarter48 plays
Saints6Broncos0
Saints7Broncos0
Touchdown10 plays, from the Broncos 38 to the Broncos 1
Punt5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 26
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 27 to the Saints 40
Punt4 plays
Punt5 plays
FormationWildcatOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Broncos 36 to the Broncos 45
Saints13Broncos0
Saints14Broncos0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Broncos 13 to the Broncos 2
Intercepted3 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 27
Saints17Broncos0
Field goal4 plays, from the Broncos 41 to the Broncos 22
3rd quarter34 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 30
Intercepted5 plays, from the Broncos 23 to the Broncos 44
Intercepted3 plays
Saints17Broncos3
Field goal4 plays, from the Saints 40 to the Saints 34
Saints23Broncos3
Saints24Broncos3
Touchdown10 plays, from the Saints 18 to the Broncos 36
The period ended6 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 37
4th quarter32 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 32 to the Broncos 35
Saints30Broncos3
Saints31Broncos3
Touchdown14 plays, from the Saints 23 to the Broncos 8
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 40
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 21 to the Saints 27
The period ended4 plays, from the Broncos 24 to the Broncos 48
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
