2020 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 29, 2020 · Paul Brown Stadium

New York GiantsWinner

Cincinnati Bengals

NYG -6.5 no coverU 45 ✓Giants closed -6.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

New York Giants 19–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:57, NYG +28% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:57NYG — CIN CIN ball · 1st & 10NYG 70%

(:57) (Shotgun) 8-B.Allen sacked at CIN 40 for -10 yards (91-J.Sheard). FUMBLES (91-J.Sheard) [91-J.Sheard], RECOVERED by NYG-99-L.Williams at CIN 37. 99-L.Williams to CIN 37 for no gain (66-T.Hopkins).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:57NYG +28% win prob(:57) (Shotgun) 8-B.Allen sacked at CIN 40 for -10 yards (91-J.Sheard). FUMBLES (91-J.Sheard) [91-J.Sheard], RECOVERED by NYG-99-L.Williams at CIN 37. 99-L.Williams to CIN 37 for no gain (66-T.Hopkins).
Q4 · 1:11NYG +19% win prob(1:11) 9-R.Dixon punts 61 yards to CIN 21, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 12-A.Erickson to 50 for 29 yards (47-C.Brown).
Q2 · 8:53NYG +13% win prob(8:53) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep middle to 88-E.Engram to CIN 15 for 18 yards (24-V.Bell). FUMBLES (24-V.Bell), RECOVERED by CIN-24-V.Bell at CIN 17. 24-V.Bell to CIN 45 for 28 yards (88-E.Engram; 8-D.Jones). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q1 · 10:01CIN +11% win prob5-G.Gano kicks 68 yards from NYG 35 to CIN -3. 40-B.Wilson for 103 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Giants	Bengals
Offensive plays	78	45
Total yards	388 (edge)	156
Yards per play	5.0 (edge)	3.5
Expected points added / play	0.03 (edge)	-0.39
Success rate	42% (edge)	33%
Dropback rate	55%	73%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.03 (edge)	-0.58
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.03	0.14 (edge)
Third downs	9/21 (edge)	3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4 (edge)	1
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	10
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	2
Turnovers	1 (edge)	3

Giants won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.39.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NYG

Daniel JonesQB

16/27, 213 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

12.4 expected points added · -9.5% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Brandon AllenQB

17/29, 136 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-12.5 expected points added · -5.7% completion over expected

Rushing · NYG

Wayne GallmanRB

24 att, 94 yds, 1 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Giovani BernardRB

8 att, 32 yds, 0 TD

0.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NYG

Evan EngramTE

6/9 for 129 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 0.3 expected points added

Receiving · NYG

Sterling ShepardWR

7/8 for 64 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 4.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYG	NYG 24	11	76	4:59	Touchdown
2	CIN	—	2	0	0:11	Defensive touchdown
3	NYG	NYG 25	8	18	2:22	Punt
4	CIN	CIN 25	9	31	4:50	Punt
5	NYG	NYG 10	6	27	2:45	Punt
6	CIN	CIN 31	4	-3	1:33	Punt
7	NYG	NYG 25	12	58	4:40	Fumble
8	CIN	CIN 45	9	39	5:08	Turnover on downs
9	NYG	NYG 25	12	44	3:11	Turnover on downs
10	CIN	CIN 30	2	0	0:21	End of half
11	CIN	CIN 38	5	9	1:44	Punt
12	NYG	NYG 6	11	72	5:10	Turnover on downs
13	CIN	CIN 32	5	6	1:28	Punt
14	NYG	NYG 12	7	22	3:03	Punt
15	CIN	CIN 16	7	22	3:03	Interception
16	NYG	CIN 40	8	19	3:57	Turnover on downs
17	CIN	CIN 25	5	8	1:55	Punt
18	NYG	NYG 20	8	33	4:36	Punt
19	CIN	CIN 14	2	17	0:52	Fumble
20	NYG	CIN 19	4	5	0:18	Turnover on downs
21	CIN	CIN 28	9	40	1:21	Touchdown
22	NYG	NYG 13	5	14	1:36	Punt
23	CIN	50	1	-13	0:08	Fumble
24	NYG	CIN 37	2	0	0:49	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Giants gained 76 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New York Giants

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	EPA
Daniel Jones	16/27	213	12.4
Colt McCoy	6/10	31	-3.0
Golden Tate	0/1	0	-0.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Wayne Gallman	24	94	3.9	1	0.5
Daniel Jones	6	19	3.2	0	0.8
Dion Lewis	2	10	5.0	0	1.6
Alfred Morris	4	8	2.0	0	-1.7
Colt McCoy	5	7	1.4	0	-2.3
Sterling Shepard	1	4	4.0	0	-0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Evan Engram	6	9	129	24%	0.3
Sterling Shepard	7	8	64	22%	4.0
Golden Tate	4	9	36	24%	1.7
C.J. Board	1	1	11	3%	0.9
Dion Lewis	1	3	7	8%	-0.5
Darius Slayton	0	2	0	5%	-1.2
Wayne Gallman	3	5	-3	14%	-2.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jabrill Peppers	3	3	0.0	2
Logan Ryan	2	4	0.0	1
Blake Martinez	2	3	0.0	1
Isaac Yiadom	4	0	0.0	0
Julian Love	3	0	0.0	0
Tae Crowder	2	1	0.0	0
Darnay Holmes	2	1	0.0	1
Jabaal Sheard	2	1	1.0	0
Kyler Fackrell	1	1	0.0	0
Leonard Williams	1	1	1.0	0

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Brandon Allen	17/29	136	1	1	2	-12.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Giovani Bernard	8	32	4.0	0.5
Brandon Allen	4	7	1.8	-1.0
Shawn Williams	1	7	7.0	3.2
Trayveon Williams	1	-2	-2.0	-0.9
Alex Erickson	1	-4	-4.0	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tee Higgins	5	5	44	1	19%	2.0
Drew Sample	4	5	40	0	19%	-3.7
Giovani Bernard	2	3	17	0	11%	-0.2
Tyler Boyd	3	6	15	0	22%	-5.6
Trayveon Williams	1	1	13	0	4%	0.8
Cethan Carter	1	1	5	0	4%	0.4
Samaje Perine	1	1	2	0	4%	-0.5
A.J. Green	0	3	0	0	11%	-2.2
Auden Tate	0	2	0	0	7%	-2.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Vonn Bell	7	3	0
Germaine Pratt	6	2	0
Jessie Bates	7	0	0
Sam Hubbard	4	3	0
Josh Bynes	6	1	2
Christian Covington	2	2	0
Mike Daniels	1	3	0
LeShaun Sims	4	0	0
Khalid Kareem	1	2	0
Brandon Wilson	3	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NYG -6.5
Closing total: 45
NYG moneyline: -260
CIN moneyline: +227

Giants closed -6.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 45; the game landed 36 — under by 9.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paul Brown Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 52°F, wind 4 mph
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: NYG 14 days · CIN 7 days
Coaches: Joe Judge vs Zac Taylor