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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
2020 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 29, 2020 · Paul Brown Stadium
Final
GiantsNew York19
BY 2final margin
BengalsCincinnati17
New York Giants 19 at Cincinnati Bengals 17. Final.
Giants -6.5 no coverU 45 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 12
New York Giants 19, Bengals 17 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:57, 1st and 10, on Brandon Allen — 28.2 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:57 · 1st and 10
Brandon Allen
Giants
(:57) (Shotgun) 8-B.Allen sacked at CIN 40 for -10 yards (91-J.Sheard). FUMBLES (91-J.Sheard) [91-J.Sheard], RECOVERED by NYG-99-L.Williams at CIN 37. 99-L.Williams to CIN 37 for no gain (66-T.Hopkins).
Giants closed -6.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
New York Giants 19–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:57, Giants +28.2% win probability on one snap.
28.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Evan EngramBengalsQ2 8:53(8:53) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep middle to 88-E.Engram to CIN 15 for 18 yards (24-V.Bell). FUMBLES (24-V.Bell), RECOVERED by CIN-24-V.Bell at CIN 17. 24-V.Bell to CIN 45 for 28 yards (88-E.Engram; 8-D.Jones). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
13.2pts
Unnamed on the sheetBengalsQ4 1:11(1:11) 9-R.Dixon punts 61 yards to CIN 21, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 12-A.Erickson to 50 for 29 yards (47-C.Brown).
18.7pts
What separated them
Every snap
Giants won this one — +0.03 expected points per snap, against Bengals at -0.39 expected points per snap.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Giants won this one — +0.03 expected points per dropback, against Bengals at -0.58 expected points per dropback.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Giants won this one — 1 giveaway, against Bengals at 3 giveaways.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Giants won this one — 42% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bengals at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Giants163 of 172 plays carry both curves
(:57) (Shotgun) 8-B.Allen sacked at CIN 40 for -10 yards (91-J.Sheard). FUMBLES (91-J.Sheard) [91-J.Sheard], RECOVERED by NYG-99-L.Williams at CIN 37. 99-L.Williams to CIN 37 for no gain (66-T.Hopkins).
Swing −28.2 for BengalsExpected points −3.67 for BengalsThe model had Bengals 14 points higher than the market did.play 169
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:57NYG +28% win prob(:57) (Shotgun) 8-B.Allen sacked at CIN 40 for -10 yards (91-J.Sheard). FUMBLES (91-J.Sheard) [91-J.Sheard], RECOVERED by NYG-99-L.Williams at CIN 37. 99-L.Williams to CIN 37 for no gain (66-T.Hopkins).
4th · 1:11NYG +19% win prob(1:11) 9-R.Dixon punts 61 yards to CIN 21, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 12-A.Erickson to 50 for 29 yards (47-C.Brown).
2nd · 8:53NYG +13% win prob(8:53) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep middle to 88-E.Engram to CIN 15 for 18 yards (24-V.Bell). FUMBLES (24-V.Bell), RECOVERED by CIN-24-V.Bell at CIN 17. 24-V.Bell to CIN 45 for 28 yards (88-E.Engram; 8-D.Jones). The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
1st · 10:01CIN +11% win prob5-G.Gano kicks 68 yards from NYG 35 to CIN -3. 40-B.Wilson for 103 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 12:03CIN +11% win prob(12:03) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 88-E.Engram to CIN 28 for 44 yards (40-B.Wilson).
4th · 4:19NYG +10% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Graham Gano's 40-yard field goal with 8:10 left in the 3rd put New York Giants ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Giants ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.58 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.03Giants: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.39Bengals: −0.39 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.03Giants: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.58Bengals: −0.58 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.03Giants: +0.03 expected points added per play
+0.14Bengals: +0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 78 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Bengals’s 45 at 73%. Red-zone trips: Giants 3, Bengals 2.
NoteGiants won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.39.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 27 pts
leaned — got home · +8.4 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+1.33× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Bengals7.0%
inside their normal wobble · −5.5 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−0.86× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYG's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 24.2%, 8.4 points above their season mean of 15.8% and 1.3 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Allen sacked−39% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(:57) (Shotgun) 8-B.Allen sacked at CIN 40 for -10 yards (91-J.Sheard). FUMBLES (91-J.Sheard) [91-J.Sheard], RECOVERED by NYG-99-L.Williams at CIN 37. 99-L.Williams to CIN 37 for no gain (66-T.Hopkins).
Q4 0:57 · Bengals · 1st & 10 at 50 · lost 13 · -3.67 EP · −39.2% win probability
161 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYG moving 76 yards from the NYG 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
38%
Yards
541
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.0769%
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.4776%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR21-0.0833%
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR10-0.060%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.2933%
Bengals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR5-0.6880%
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
FormationPistolOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Giants6Bengals0
Giants7Bengals0
Touchdown11 plays, from the Giants 24 to the Bengals 1
Giants7Bengals6
Giants7Bengals7
Touchdown2 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 40
Punt9 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Giants 44
The period ended7 plays, from the Giants 10 to the Giants 25
2nd quarter44 plays
Punt1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Bengals 31 to the Bengals 32
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Fumble lost12 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Bengals 33
Giants7Bengals10
Field goal10 plays, from the Bengals 45 to the Giants 26
Giants10Bengals10
Field goal14 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Bengals 31
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 38 to the Bengals 47
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Giants13Bengals10
Field goal11 plays, from the Giants 6 to the Bengals 13
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 32 to the Bengals 38
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 12 to the Giants 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Bengals 16 to the Bengals 40
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter52 plays
Giants16Bengals10
Field goal7 plays, from the Bengals 38 to the Bengals 21
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 26
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Bengals 47
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Bengals 14 to the Bengals 21
Giants19Bengals10
Field goal6 plays, from the Bengals 19 to the Bengals 14
Giants19Bengals16
Giants19Bengals17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bengals 28 to the Giants 1
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 13 to the Giants 19
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost1 play
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Giants -6.5
Closing total
45
Giants moneyline
-260
Bengals moneyline
+227
Giants closed -6.5, won by 2 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 45; the game landed 36 — under by 9.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Paul Brown Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cool, 49°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the south-east; clear.
Referee
Carl Cheffers
Rest
Giants 14 days · Bengals 7 days
Coaches
Joe Judge vs Zac Taylor
(4:19) (Shotgun) 8-B.Allen pass short right to 89-D.Sample to CIN 25 for 4 yards (23-L.Ryan). FUMBLES (23-L.Ryan), touched at CIN 24, RECOVERED by NYG-23-L.Ryan at CIN 19. 23-L.Ryan to CIN 19 for no gain (68-B.Hart).
3rd · 0:37NYG +8% win prob(:37) (Shotgun) 8-B.Allen pass short middle intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 57-N.Lalos (30-D.Holmes) at CIN 40. 57-N.Lalos to CIN 40 for no gain (67-Q.Spain).
4th · 2:43CIN +8% win prob(2:43) (Shotgun) 8-B.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 83-T.Boyd (30-D.Holmes). PENALTY on NYG-30-D.Holmes, Defensive Pass Interference, 17 yards, enforced at NYG 18 - No Play.
Giantscategory by categoryBengals
Giants6
Bengals0
