2020 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 29, 2020 · SoFi Stadium

San Francisco 49ersWinner

Los Angeles Rams

LA -5 upsetU 44.5 ✓DomeRams closed -5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

San Francisco 49ers 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 2:38, SF +24% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 2:38SF — LA SF ball · 1st & 10SF 85%

(2:38) 31-R.Mostert left tackle to SF 23 for -2 yards (99-A.Donald). FUMBLES (99-A.Donald), RECOVERED by LA-22-T.Hill at SF 20. 22-T.Hill for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 2:38SF +24% win prob(2:38) 31-R.Mostert left tackle to SF 23 for -2 yards (99-A.Donald). FUMBLES (99-A.Donald), RECOVERED by LA-22-T.Hill at SF 20. 22-T.Hill for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 14:32SF +20% win prob(14:32) (No Huddle) 16-J.Goff pass short left intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 99-J.Kinlaw [90-K.Givens] at LA 27. 99-J.Kinlaw for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 0:32LA +17% win prob(:32) 23-C.Akers right tackle to SF 7 for 61 yards (22-J.Verrett).
Q4 · 0:04LA +17% win prob(:04) 9-R.Gould 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	49ers	Rams
Offensive plays	70	60
Total yards	345 (edge)	309
Yards per play	4.9	5.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.32 (edge)	-0.48
Success rate	39%	40% (edge)
Dropback rate	53%	62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.13 (edge)	-0.71
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.52	-0.10 (edge)
Third downs	3/14	4/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	16 (edge)	13
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	3 (edge)	4

49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.32 expected points added per play vs -0.48.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Nick MullensQB

24/35, 252 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-4.9 expected points added · -3.8% completion over expected

Passing · LA

Jared GoffQB

19/31, 198 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-16.0 expected points added · -4.8% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Cam AkersRB

9 att, 84 yds, 1 TD

2.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Raheem MostertRB

16 att, 43 yds, 1 TD

-10.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

Deebo SamuelWR

11/13 for 133 yds, 0 TD

38% of team targets · 2.6 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Robert WoodsWR

7/12 for 80 yds, 0 TD

40% of team targets · -3.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 25	5	8	1:25	Punt
2	LA	LA 13	6	32	2:30	Fumble
3	SF	SF 49	4	16	1:54	Interception
4	LA	LA 29	6	41	2:19	Turnover on downs
5	SF	SF 25	7	75	2:42	Touchdown
6	LA	LA 25	5	11	1:49	Interception
7	SF	LA 45	1	-3	0:06	Fumble
8	LA	LA 48	4	7	1:14	Punt
9	SF	SF 14	4	9	1:47	Punt
10	LA	LA 35	7	8	4:15	Punt
11	SF	SF 15	6	30	3:28	Punt
12	LA	LA 20	4	8	1:34	Punt
13	SF	SF 25	6	35	3:14	Punt
14	LA	LA 20	6	29	1:13	Fumble
15	SF	SF 46	5	22	0:28	Turnover on downs
16	LA	LA 40	1	0	0:02	End of half
17	LA	LA 25	3	2	0:38	Defensive touchdown
18	LA	LA 25	5	8	1:07	Punt
19	SF	SF 30	4	0	1:03	Punt
20	LA	LA 27	4	8	2:06	Punt
21	SF	SF 17	10	48	5:36	Turnover on downs
22	LA	LA 25	8	53	1:52	Turnover on downs
23	SF	SF 25	2	-5	0:06	Defensive touchdown
24	SF	SF 25	5	-9	2:00	Punt
25	LA	LA 32	4	68	1:15	Touchdown
26	SF	SF 25	7	19	2:30	Punt
27	LA	LA 14	6	15	3:02	Punt
28	SF	SF 26	10	49	5:34	Turnover on downs
29	LA	LA 25	7	19	1:01	Punt
30	SF	SF 20	11	51	2:10	Turnover on downs

0 of 30 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 75 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Nick Mullens	24/35	252	0	1	2	-4.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Raheem Mostert	16	43	2.7	1	-10.5
Jeffery Wilson	12	40	3.3	0	-7.5
Jerick McKinnon	3	21	7.0	0	-1.1
Kyle Juszczyk	2	8	4.0	0	1.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Deebo Samuel	11	13	133	38%	2.6
Kendrick Bourne	3	5	34	15%	-0.6
Richie James	1	1	29	3%	2.4
Kyle Juszczyk	2	2	24	6%	1.6
Jordan Reed	2	6	18	18%	-3.6
Jerick McKinnon	2	3	11	9%	-0.5
Ross Dwelley	1	2	3	6%	-1.3
Raheem Mostert	2	2	0	6%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Richard Sherman	6	1	0.0	1	1
Fred Warner	4	2	0.0	0	0
Dre Greenlaw	3	2	0.0	0	0
Jimmie Ward	4	1	0.0	0	1
Arik Armstead	2	2	0.0	0	0
Emmanuel Moseley	3	1	0.0	0	0
Kerry Hyder	3	1	2.0	0	0
Jason Verrett	3	1	0.0	0	0
Tarvarius Moore	1	2	0.0	0	0
Jamar Taylor	1	1	0.0	0	0

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	19/31	198	0	2	2	-16.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Cam Akers	9	84	9.3	1	2.0
Darrell Henderson	10	19	1.9	0	-4.4
Jared Goff	5	11	2.2	0	-5.2
Robert Woods	1	8	8.0	0	0.9
Malcolm Brown	3	4	1.3	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Robert Woods	7	12	80	40%	-3.5
Cooper Kupp	2	5	41	17%	-9.0
Josh Reynolds	5	6	40	20%	0.0
Gerald Everett	2	2	16	7%	1.5
Malcolm Brown	2	2	15	7%	-3.4
Tyler Higbee	1	2	6	7%	-0.7
Darrell Henderson	0	1	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Troy Reeder	10	3	0.0	0	0
Sebastian Joseph	4	3	0.0	0	0
Troy Hill	6	1	0.0	0	0
Leonard Floyd	2	5	0.0	0	0
John Johnson	5	1	0.0	0	2
Nick Scott	2	3	0.0	0	0
Aaron Donald	4	1	1.0	0	1
Jordan Fuller	1	3	0.0	1	1
Michael Brockers	1	3	0.0	0	0
Samson Ebukam	1	1	0.0	0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -5
Closing total: 44.5
SF moneyline: +190
LA moneyline: -215

Rams closed -5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44.5; the game landed 43 — under by 1.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: SF 14 days · LA 6 days
Coaches: Kyle Shanahan vs Sean McVay

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.