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San Francisco 49ers 23 at Los Angeles Rams 20. Final.
Rams -5 upsetU 44.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 12
San Francisco 49ers 23, Rams 20 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q3 2:38, 1st and 10, on Raheem Mostert — 23.8 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 2:38 · 1st and 10
Raheem Mostert
Rams
(2:38) 31-R.Mostert left tackle to SF 23 for -2 yards (99-A.Donald). FUMBLES (99-A.Donald), RECOVERED by LA-22-T.Hill at SF 20. 22-T.Hill for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Rams closed -5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
San Francisco 49ers 23–20 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q3 2:38, Rams +23.8% win probability on one snap.
23.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Javon Kinlaw49ersQ3 14:32(14:32) (No Huddle) 16-J.Goff pass short left intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 99-J.Kinlaw [90-K.Givens] at LA 27. 99-J.Kinlaw for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
20.3pts
Cam AkersRamsQ3 0:32(:32) 23-C.Akers right tackle to SF 7 for 61 yards (22-J.Verrett).
17.4pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
49ers won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Rams at 3 chunk plays.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Rams owned this one and still lost it — -0.10 expected points per carry, against 49ers at -0.52 expected points per carry.
Ramsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
49ers won this one — -0.13 expected points per dropback, against Rams at -0.71 expected points per dropback.
49ersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
49ers won this one — 3 giveaways, against Rams at 4 giveaways.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about 49ers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on 49ers174 of 188 plays carry both curves
(2:38) 31-R.Mostert left tackle to SF 23 for -2 yards (99-A.Donald). FUMBLES (99-A.Donald), RECOVERED by LA-22-T.Hill at SF 20. 22-T.Hill for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +23.8 for RamsExpected points +8.10 for RamsThe model had 49ers 5 points higher than the market did.play 128
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 2:38SF +24% win prob(2:38) 31-R.Mostert left tackle to SF 23 for -2 yards (99-A.Donald). FUMBLES (99-A.Donald), RECOVERED by LA-22-T.Hill at SF 20. 22-T.Hill for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 14:32SF +20% win prob(14:32) (No Huddle) 16-J.Goff pass short left intended for 10-C.Kupp INTERCEPTED by 99-J.Kinlaw [90-K.Givens] at LA 27. 99-J.Kinlaw for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 0:32LA +17% win prob(:32) 23-C.Akers right tackle to SF 7 for 61 yards (22-J.Verrett).
4th · 0:04LA +17% win prob(:04) 9-R.Gould 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.
4th · 1:55LA +14% win prob(1:55) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short left to 19-D.Samuel to LA 48 for 24 yards (51-T.Reeder).
4th · 5:23LA +12% win prob(5:23) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass deep left to 44-K.Juszczyk to LA 29 for 20 yards (22-T.Hill). FUMBLES (22-T.Hill), ball out of bounds at LA 29.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Robbie Gould's 42-yard field goal with 0:04 left in the 4th put San Francisco 49ers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st6:57Matt Gay·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+30–3
4th3:15Robbie Gould·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.Pepper+320–20
4th0:04Robbie Gould·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder M.Wishnowsky · snap T.PepperLead never changed again+323–20
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
49erscategory by categoryRams
49ers4–3Rams
345Total yards309
4.9Yards per play5.2
39%Success rate40%
21%Third-down rate31%
1Red-zone touchdowns1
9Explosive plays3
16First downs13
2Sacks taken2
3Turnovers4
The read
49ers ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.71 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.3249ers: −0.32 expected points added per play
−0.48Rams: −0.48 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.1349ers: −0.13 expected points added per play
−0.71Rams: −0.71 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.5249ers: −0.52 expected points added per play
−0.10Rams: −0.10 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: 49ers ran 70 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Rams’s 60 at 62%. Red-zone trips: 49ers 1, Rams 1.
Note49ers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.32 expected points added per play vs -0.48.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 12Against their seasonOver Expected
SF's pass rate over expected, −12.1 pts, is past their previous low of −9.4 pts in week 2 — the lowest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
2.1 times their own weekly swing below their number.
70 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 3.4 points.
LA's pass rate over expected turned over: +13.7 pts in week 11 against −2.3 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
60 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 17 pts
leaned — got home · +6.8 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+1.02× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Rams18.9%
right on their number · +2.9 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.43× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSF's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -12.1 pts, 7.4 points below their season mean of -4.7 pts and 2.1 times their own 3.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the 49ers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
49ers←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Mostert left−23% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(2:38) 31-R.Mostert left tackle to SF 23 for -2 yards (99-A.Donald). FUMBLES (99-A.Donald), RECOVERED by LA-22-T.Hill at SF 20. 22-T.Hill for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 2:38 · 49ers · 1st & 10 at SF 25 · lost 5 · -8.10 EP · −22.6% win probability
172 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 188 plays across 31 drives, personnel groupings on 188 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 31 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 75 yards from the SF 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, SF attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
188 of 188 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
188
EPA per play
-0.29
Success rate
35%
Yards
653
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54-0.5756%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33-0.3973%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR21-0.4329%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.3263%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR8-0.3425%
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.3550%
snapsepapass rate
188 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
188 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 33
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Rams 13 to the Rams 41
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the 49ers 49 to the Rams 35
49ers0Rams3
Field goal6 plays, from the Rams 29 to the 49ers 30
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw0.8 seconds
49ers6Rams3
49ers7Rams3
Touchdown7 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Rams 8
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 36
Offense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defenders
Fumble lost1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 48 to the 49ers 45
The period ended3 plays, from the 49ers 14 to the 49ers 16
2nd quarter46 plays
Punt2 plays, from the 49ers 19 to the 49ers 23
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 35 to the 49ers 48
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 15 to the 49ers 45
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 20 to the Rams 28
Punt8 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 45
The period ended1 play
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Rams 41 to the 49ers 39
No good7 plays, from the 49ers 46 to the Rams 32
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter48 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.7 seconds
49ers13Rams3
Touchdown3 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 27
49ers14Rams3
Punt6 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 27 to the Rams 36
49ers17Rams3
Field goal12 plays, from the 49ers 17 to the Rams 28
49ers17Rams6
Field goal8 plays, from the Rams 25 to the 49ers 22
Offense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
49ers17Rams12
Touchdown2 plays
49ers17Rams13
Punt5 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter52 plays
49ers17Rams19
49ers17Rams20
Touchdown3 plays, from the 49ers 7 to the 49ers 1
Punt7 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Rams 45
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFour
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 14 to the Rams 36
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
49ers20Rams20
Field goal10 plays, from the 49ers 26 to the Rams 25
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Rams 44
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxNine defenders
49ers23Rams20
Field goal18 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the Rams 24
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Rams -5
Closing total
44.5
49ers moneyline
+190
Rams moneyline
-215
Rams closed -5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44.5; the game landed 43 — under by 1.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
49ers 14 days · Rams 6 days
Coaches
Kyle Shanahan vs Sean McVay
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
1st · 11:14
SF +11% win prob
(11:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 34-M.Brown to LA 45 for 4 yards (20-J.Ward). FUMBLES (20-J.Ward), RECOVERED by SF-90-K.Givens at SF 49.
2nd · 0:22LA +10% win prob(:22) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short right to 84-K.Bourne to LA 36 for 18 yards (20-J.Ramsey; 32-J.Fuller).
