2020 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 29, 2020 · Lucas Oil Stadium

Tennessee TitansWinner

Indianapolis Colts

IND -3 upsetO 51.5 ✓DomeColts closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Tennessee Titans 45–26 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 0:22, IND +19% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 0:22TEN — IND TEN ball · 1st & 15IND 58%

(:22) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 11-A.Brown for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 0:22IND +19% win prob(:22) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 11-A.Brown for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 2:40IND +7% win prob(2:40) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 80-T.Burton for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 2:15IND +6% win prob(2:15) 45-D.Foreman left end to IND 30 for 12 yards (53-D.Leonard; 92-K.Cline). PENALTY on IND-90-G.Stewart, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at IND 30.
Q2 · 11:21IND +6% win prob(11:21) 6-B.Kern punts 47 yards to IND 12, Center-47-M.Overton, out of bounds.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Titans	Colts
Offensive plays	65	68
Total yards	454 (edge)	337
Yards per play	7.0 (edge)	5.0
Expected points added / play	0.34 (edge)	-0.01
Success rate	52% (edge)	41%
Dropback rate	35%	71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.46 (edge)	0.04
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.28 (edge)	-0.15
Third downs	5/11 (edge)	5/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	12 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	25	25
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.34 expected points added per play vs -0.01.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · IND

Philip RiversQB

24/42, 295 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

4.9 expected points added · -10.7% completion over expected

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

13/22, 221 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

10.6 expected points added · -7.5% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

27 att, 178 yds, 3 TD

11.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Nyheim Miller-HinesRB

10 att, 29 yds, 0 TD

-1.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TEN

A.J. BrownWR

4/6 for 98 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 7.6 expected points added

Receiving · IND

T.Y. HiltonWR

4/5 for 81 yds, 1 TD

12% of team targets · 5.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	TEN	TEN 25	12	75	5:48	Touchdown
2	IND	IND 25	14	75	6:38	Touchdown
3	TEN	TEN 25	6	80	2:25	Touchdown
4	IND	IND 25	8	66	2:18	Touchdown
5	TEN	TEN 25	6	16	1:36	Punt
6	IND	IND 12	4	6	1:31	Punt
7	TEN	TEN 35	9	50	3:29	Touchdown
8	IND	IND 30	6	14	1:50	Punt
9	TEN	TEN 14	10	81	2:44	Touchdown
10	IND	IND 25	5	1	0:28	Punt
11	TEN	IND 44	6	44	0:53	Touchdown
12	IND	IND 15	2	0	0:20	End of half
13	IND	IND 25	6	15	1:18	Punt
14	TEN	TEN 28	6	16	2:06	Punt
15	IND	IND 8	7	9	2:52	Punt
16	TEN	TEN 39	5	16	2:18	Punt
17	IND	IND 13	4	14	0:48	Interception
18	TEN	TEN 37	8	42	4:54	Turnover on downs
19	IND	IND 25	11	75	2:21	Touchdown
20	TEN	TEN 32	11	34	7:28	Punt
21	IND	IND 6	12	71	3:21	Touchdown
22	TEN	—	2	0	0:05	Defensive touchdown
23	IND	IND 25	5	-9	0:42	Turnover on downs
24	TEN	IND 16	3	0	1:47	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 81 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	13/22	221	1	0	1	10.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	27	178	6.6	3	11.9
D'Onta Foreman	4	28	7.0	0	2.1
Jeremy McNichols	8	20	2.5	0	-3.7
Cameron Batson	1	5	5.0	0	-0.3
Ryan Tannehill	2	3	1.5	1	1.8
Logan Woodside	3	-5	-1.7	0	-4.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
A.J. Brown	4	6	98	1	30%	7.6
Corey Davis	3	3	70	0	15%	7.6
Geoff Swaim	3	3	30	0	15%	2.8
Khari Blasingame	1	1	16	0	5%	1.8
Derrick Henry	2	4	7	0	20%	-2.1
Jeremy McNichols	0	1	0	0	5%	-1.6
Kalif Raymond	0	1	0	0	5%	-1.8
Anthony Firkser	0	1	0	0	5%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Kenny Vaccaro	6	2	0.0	0	0
Kevin Byard	5	0	0.0	0	0
Malcolm Butler	4	0	0.0	0	0
Jeffery Simmons	2	2	1.0	0	1
DaQuan Jones	3	1	0.0	0	0
Desmond King	2	1	0.0	0	0
Rashaan Evans	2	1	0.0	0	1
David Long Jr.	2	1	0.0	0	1
Breon Borders	2	0	0.0	1	1
Derick Roberson	1	1	0.0	0	0

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Philip Rivers	24/42	295	2	1	1	4.9
Jacoby Brissett	0/2	0	0	0	1	-5.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Nyheim Miller-Hines	10	29	2.9	0	-1.1
Jordan Wilkins	6	22	3.7	0	-3.0
Jacoby Brissett	4	3	0.8	2	3.9
DeMichael Harris	1	2	2.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
T.Y. Hilton	4	5	81	1	12%	5.9
Nyheim Miller-Hines	8	10	66	0	24%	2.2
Trey Burton	3	6	42	1	14%	2.8
Jordan Wilkins	3	4	35	0	10%	1.4
Michael Pittman	2	9	28	0	21%	-4.3
Zach Pascal	1	4	23	0	10%	-1.7
Mo Alie-Cox	2	2	19	0	5%	1.7
DeMichael Harris	1	1	1	0	2%	-0.3
Jack Doyle	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Shaquille Leonard	7	5	1.0	1
Khari Willis	5	1	0.0	1
Anthony Walker	2	3	0.0	0
Al-Quadin Muhammad	2	2	0.0	0
Tyquan Lewis	4	0	0.0	1
Kenny Moore	3	0	0.0	0
Taylor Stallworth	1	2	0.0	0
Zaire Franklin	3	0	0.0	0
Rock Ya-Sin	2	1	0.0	0
T.J. Carrie	3	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: IND -3
Closing total: 51.5
TEN moneyline: +133
IND moneyline: -147

Colts closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 51.5; the game landed 71 — over by 19.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: TEN 7 days · IND 7 days
Coaches: Mike Vrabel vs Frank Reich

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.