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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 1:02 AM ET · 16 to play
2020 Week 12 · Sun, Nov 29, 2020 · Lucas Oil Stadium
Final
TitansTennessee45
BY 19final margin
ColtsIndianapolis26
Tennessee Titans 45 at Indianapolis Colts 26. Final.
Colts -3 upsetO 51.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 12
Tennessee Titans 45, Colts 26 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 0:22, 1st and 15, on A.J. Brown — 18.6 win-probability points to the Titans on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 0:22 · 1st and 15
A.J. Brown
Titans
(:22) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 11-A.Brown for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Colts closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Tennessee Titans 45–26 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 0:22, Titans +18.6% win probability on one snap.
18.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Trey BurtonColtsQ1 2:40(2:40) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 80-T.Burton for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6.8pts
D'Onta ForemanTitansQ2 2:15(2:15) 45-D.Foreman left end to IND 30 for 12 yards (53-D.Leonard; 92-K.Cline). PENALTY on IND-90-G.Stewart, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at IND 30.
6.2pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Titans won this one — 12 chunk plays, against Colts at 5 chunk plays.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Titans won this one — +0.28 expected points per carry, against Colts at -0.15 expected points per carry.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Titans won this one — no giveaways, against Colts at 2 giveaways.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Titans won this one — +0.34 expected points per snap, against Colts at -0.01 expected points per snap.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Titans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Coltshigher on Titans184 of 193 plays carry both curves
(:22) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 11-A.Brown for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −18.6 for ColtsExpected points −5.94 for ColtsModel and market agree here.play 33
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 0:22IND +19% win prob(:22) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 11-A.Brown for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 2:40IND +7% win prob(2:40) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 80-T.Burton for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 2:15IND +6% win prob(2:15) 45-D.Foreman left end to IND 30 for 12 yards (53-D.Leonard; 92-K.Cline). PENALTY on IND-90-G.Stewart, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at IND 30.
2nd · 11:21IND +6% win prob(11:21) 6-B.Kern punts 47 yards to IND 12, Center-47-M.Overton, out of bounds.
1st · 5:27IND +6% win prob(5:27) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 20-J.Wilkins to TEN 29 for 21 yards (31-K.Byard).
1st · 6:05IND +6% win prob(6:05) 7-J.Brissett scrambles right end ran ob at 50 for 2 yards (31-K.Byard).
2nd · 6:25
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Derrick Henry's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 6:20 left in the 2nd put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
3rd0:49Stephen Gostkowski·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder B.Kern · snap M.Overton+338–14
4th13:27Jacoby Brissett·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point no good+638–20
4th2:38T.Y. Hilton·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Philip Riversfrom Philip Rivers · two-point no good+638–26
4th2:34A.J. Brown·42-yd return TD42-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+745–26
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Titanscategory by categoryColts
Titans7–0Colts
454Total yards337
7.0Yards per play5.0
52%Success rate41%
45%Third-down rate38%
4Red-zone touchdowns4
12Explosive plays5
25First downs25
1Sacks taken2
0Turnovers2
The read
Titans ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.46 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.34Titans: +0.34 expected points added per play
−0.01Colts: −0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.46Titans: +0.46 expected points added per play
+0.04Colts: +0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.28Titans: +0.28 expected points added per play
−0.15Colts: −0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 65 snaps at a 35% dropback rate against Colts’s 68 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Titans 7, Colts 4.
NoteTitans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.34 expected points added per play vs -0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
TEN's early-down pass rate, 30.2%, is past their previous low of 36.8% in week 9 — the lowest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
53 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points.
low through week 12Against their seasonOver Expected
TEN's pass rate over expected, −15.8 pts, is past their previous low of −13.6 pts in week 2 — the lowest of their 11 charted games through week 12.
65 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 15 pts
right on their number · +1.9 vs their 10.6%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (+0.24× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Colts8.7%
inside their normal wobble · −3.7 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−0.60× that swing) · 23 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTEN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 30.2%, 15.7 points below their season mean of 45.9% and 1.5 times their own 10.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Colts attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Colts→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Tannehill pass+20% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:22) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 11-A.Brown for 69 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 0:22 · Titans · 1st & 15 at TEN 31 · gained 69 · +5.94 EP · +19.6% win probability
182 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 193 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 193 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
11 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was IND moving 94 yards from the IND 6 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; IND attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
193 of 193 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
193
EPA per play
+0.15
Success rate
44%
Yards
785
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR60+0.0270%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23+0.3539%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR23+0.4130%
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR9+0.4911%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.0960%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
193 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
193 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Titans6Colts0
Titans7Colts0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Colts 12
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Titans7Colts6
Titans7Colts7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Titans 11
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.1 seconds
Titans13Colts7
Titans14Colts7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 36
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter67 plays
Titans14Colts13
Titans14Colts14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Colts 28 to the Titans 1
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 41
Punt4 plays, from the Colts 12 to the Colts 18
Titans20Colts14
Titans21Colts14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Titans 35 to the Colts 1
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Colts 44
Titans27Colts14
Titans28Colts14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Titans 14 to the Colts 11
Punt7 plays
Titans34Colts14
Titans35Colts14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Colts 44 to the Colts 1
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter44 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 40
Punt6 plays, from the Titans 28 to the Titans 44
Punt8 plays, from the Colts 8 to the Colts 29
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 39 to the Colts 45
Intercepted4 plays, from the Colts 13 to the Colts 27
Titans38Colts14
Field goal10 plays, from the Titans 37 to the Colts 26
The period ended5 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 34
4th quarter45 plays
Titans38Colts20
Touchdown7 plays, from the Colts 36 to the Titans 1
Punt13 plays, from the Titans 32 to the Colts 39
Titans38Colts26
Touchdown14 plays, from the Colts 6 to the Titans 5
Titans44Colts26
Titans45Colts26
Touchdown2 plays
Turnover on downs5 plays
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Colts -3
Closing total
51.5
Titans moneyline
+133
Colts moneyline
-147
Colts closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 51.5; the game landed 71 — over by 19.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Lucas Oil Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
John Hussey
Rest
Titans 7 days · Colts 7 days
Coaches
Mike Vrabel vs Frank Reich
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
IND +6% win prob
(6:25) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill sacked at IND 13 for -10 yards (sack split by 50-J.Houston and 97-A.Muhammad). PENALTY on IND-26-R.Ya-Sin, Illegal Use of Hands, 2 yards, enforced at IND 3 - No Play.
2nd · 0:31IND +5% win prob(:31) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 84-C.Davis to IND 1 for 37 yards (38-T.Carrie).
