2020 Week 12 · Thu, Nov 26, 2020 · AT&T Stadium

Washington CommandersWinner

Dallas Cowboys

DAL -2.5 upsetO 46 ✓DomeCowboys closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Washington Commanders 41–16 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 4:21, WAS +26% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 4:21WAS — DAL WAS ball · 3rd & 10WAS 76%

(4:21) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left intended for 17-T.McLaurin INTERCEPTED by 54-J.Smith [58-A.Smith] at WAS 47. 54-J.Smith to WAS 4 for 43 yards (17-T.McLaurin).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 4:21WAS +26% win prob(4:21) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left intended for 17-T.McLaurin INTERCEPTED by 54-J.Smith [58-A.Smith] at WAS 47. 54-J.Smith to WAS 4 for 43 yards (17-T.McLaurin).
Q2 · 14:17DAL +16% win prob(14:17) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 19-A.Cooper for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 5:22WAS +12% win prob(5:22) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Lamb (23-R.Darby). PENALTY on DAL-86-D.Schultz, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 34.
Q3 · 14:22WAS +11% win prob(14:22) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to DAL 34 for 3 yards (93-J.Allen). Washington challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 21-E.Elliott up the middle to DAL 34 for 3 yards (93-J.Allen, 94-D.Payne). FUMBLES (94-D.Payne), RECOVERED by WAS-93-J.Allen at DAL 33.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Commanders	Cowboys
Offensive plays	64	57
Total yards	340 (edge)	247
Yards per play	5.3 (edge)	4.3
Expected points added / play	0.09 (edge)	-0.49
Success rate	52% (edge)	44%
Dropback rate	48%	72%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.18 (edge)	-0.48
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.34 (edge)	-0.53
Third downs	7/13 (edge)	4/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	12
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	4
Turnovers	1 (edge)	2

Commanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.49.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DAL

Andy DaltonQB

25/35, 215 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-21.7 expected points added · +2.5% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Alex SmithQB

19/26, 149 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-7.1 expected points added · +8.2% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

Antonio GibsonRB

20 att, 115 yds, 3 TD

6.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

Peyton BarberRB

11 att, 57 yds, 0 TD

4.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DAL

Amari CooperWR

6/8 for 112 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 4.8 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Terry McLaurinWR

7/9 for 92 yds, 0 TD

38% of team targets · -2.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	WAS	WAS 25	5	-4	1:52	Punt
2	DAL	DAL 28	11	57	4:38	Turnover on downs
3	WAS	WAS 25	14	70	6:53	Touchdown
4	DAL	DAL 25	7	75	2:29	Touchdown
5	WAS	WAS 28	15	67	6:55	Turnover on downs
6	DAL	DAL 25	5	9	1:56	Turnover on downs
7	WAS	DAL 19	6	19	2:51	Touchdown
8	DAL	DAL 25	11	33	2:07	Turnover on downs
9	WAS	WAS 25	2	0	0:19	End of half
10	DAL	DAL 25	3	8	0:43	Fumble
11	WAS	DAL 33	6	20	3:29	Turnover on downs
12	DAL	DAL 25	7	22	3:06	Punt
13	WAS	WAS 5	9	45	3:32	Interception
14	DAL	WAS 4	4	-6	1:38	Turnover on downs
15	WAS	WAS 29	5	12	2:01	Punt
16	DAL	DAL 12	7	11	3:18	Turnover on downs
17	WAS	DAL 23	2	23	0:06	Touchdown
18	DAL	DAL 25	7	19	2:46	Punt
19	WAS	WAS 24	11	76	5:50	Touchdown
20	DAL	DAL 25	2	0	0:07	Defensive touchdown
21	DAL	DAL 25	7	19	1:16	Turnover on downs
22	WAS	DAL 44	4	12	2:08	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 76 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Alex Smith	19/26	149	1	1	3	-7.1
Logan Thomas	1/1	28	0	0	0	1.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Antonio Gibson	20	115	5.8	3	6.0
Peyton Barber	11	57	5.2	0	4.2
J.D. McKissic	1	6	6.0	0	0.4
Logan Thomas	1	3	3.0	0	0.6
Alex Smith	3	1	0.3	0	-3.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Terry McLaurin	7	9	92	0	38%	-2.0
Antonio Gibson	5	7	21	0	29%	-1.5
J.D. McKissic	2	2	21	0	8%	3.0
Logan Thomas	4	4	20	1	17%	1.5
Dontrelle Inman	1	1	15	0	4%	1.6
Steven Sims	1	1	8	0	4%	0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Cole Holcomb	5	4	0.5	0	0
Kamren Curl	5	3	0.0	0	0
Jon Bostic	4	3	0.0	0	0
Jimmy Moreland	4	1	0.0	0	0
Daron Payne	0	3	0.5	0	0
Troy Apke	3	0	0.0	0	0
Kendall Fuller	2	0	0.0	0	0
Montez Sweat	0	2	0.0	1	1
Chase Young	2	0	1.0	0	0
Thomas Davis	2	0	0.0	0	0

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andy Dalton	25/35	215	1	1	3	-21.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Ezekiel Elliott	10	32	3.2	-6.6
Andy Dalton	3	17	5.7	4.7
Tony Pollard	4	12	3.0	-0.5
Cedrick Wilson	1	-1	-1.0	-2.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Amari Cooper	6	8	112	1	24%	4.8
Michael Gallup	6	8	41	0	24%	-1.3
Dalton Schultz	5	5	24	0	15%	-0.1
CeeDee Lamb	5	7	21	0	21%	-9.4
Tony Pollard	2	2	10	0	6%	0.5
Ezekiel Elliott	1	3	7	0	9%	-8.4
Noah Brown	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Xavier Woods	6	4	0.0	0	1
Donovan Wilson	9	1	0.0	0	0
Leighton Vander Esch	4	3	0.0	0	0
Chidobe Awuzie	6	0	0.0	0	1
Rashard Robinson	3	2	0.0	0	0
Jaylon Smith	1	3	0.0	1	1
Aldon Smith	2	2	0.0	0	0
Demarcus Lawrence	1	3	1.0	0	0
Jourdan Lewis	1	2	0.0	0	0
Dorance Armstrong	2	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DAL -2.5
Closing total: 46
WAS moneyline: +122
DAL moneyline: -135

Cowboys closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46; the game landed 57 — over by 11.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: WAS 4 days · DAL 4 days
Coaches: Ron Rivera vs Mike McCarthy

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.