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Washington Commanders 41 at Dallas Cowboys 16. Final.
Cowboys -2.5 upset
The verdict · 2020 Week 12
Washington Commanders 41, Cowboys 16 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q3 4:21, 3rd and 10, on Jaylon Smith — 25.7 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 4:21 · 3rd and 10
Jaylon Smith
Cowboys
(4:21) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left intended for 17-T.McLaurin INTERCEPTED by 54-J.Smith [58-A.Smith] at WAS 47. 54-J.Smith to WAS 4 for 43 yards (17-T.McLaurin).
O 46 ✓
Dome
Cowboys closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Washington Commanders 41–16 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q3 4:21, Cowboys +25.7% win probability on one snap.
25.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Amari CooperCowboysQ2 14:17(14:17) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 19-A.Cooper for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16.5pts
Andy DaltonCommandersQ2 5:22(5:22) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Lamb (23-R.Darby). PENALTY on DAL-86-D.Schultz, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 34.
12.4pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Commanders won this one — +0.34 expected points per carry, against Cowboys at -0.53 expected points per carry.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Commanders won this one — +0.09 expected points per snap, against Cowboys at -0.49 expected points per snap.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Commanders won this one — 7 of 13 on third down, against Cowboys at 4 of 13 on third down.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Commanders won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Cowboys at 3 chunk plays.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 8 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cowboyshigher on Commanders161 of 170 plays carry both curves
(4:21) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left intended for 17-T.McLaurin INTERCEPTED by 54-J.Smith [58-A.Smith] at WAS 47. 54-J.Smith to WAS 4 for 43 yards (17-T.McLaurin).
Swing +25.7 for CowboysExpected points +7.47 for CowboysModel and market agree here.play 115
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 4:21WAS +26% win prob(4:21) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left intended for 17-T.McLaurin INTERCEPTED by 54-J.Smith [58-A.Smith] at WAS 47. 54-J.Smith to WAS 4 for 43 yards (17-T.McLaurin).
2nd · 14:17DAL +16% win prob(14:17) 14-A.Dalton pass deep right to 19-A.Cooper for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 5:22WAS +12% win prob(5:22) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short right to 88-C.Lamb (23-R.Darby). PENALTY on DAL-86-D.Schultz, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at DAL 34.
3rd · 14:22WAS +11% win prob(14:22) 21-E.Elliott up the middle to DAL 34 for 3 yards (93-J.Allen). Washington challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 21-E.Elliott up the middle to DAL 34 for 3 yards (93-J.Allen, 94-D.Payne). FUMBLES (94-D.Payne), RECOVERED by WAS-93-J.Allen at DAL 33.
2nd · 3:52DAL +9% win prob(3:52) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 41-J.McKissic to DAL 6 for 12 yards (28-Ra.Robinson).
4th · 12:13DAL +8% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Logan Thomas's 5-yard touchdown catch with 2:31 left in the 2nd put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:33Greg Zuerlein·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder H.Niswander · snap L.Ladouceur+30–3
Commanders ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.53 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.09Commanders: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.49Cowboys: −0.49 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.18Commanders: −0.18 expected points added per play
−0.48Cowboys: −0.48 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.34Commanders: +0.34 expected points added per play
−0.53Cowboys: −0.53 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 64 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Cowboys’s 57 at 72%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 6, Cowboys 4.
NoteCommanders won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.49.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 17 pts
right on their number · −1.1 vs their 15.7%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Cowboys19.4%
inside their normal wobble · +6.4 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+0.88× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was DAL's early-down pass rate, 70.0% against a season mean of 59.3% — and DAL swings 11.4 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
72David SharpeT · Every snap100%69 snaps
11Alex SmithQB · Every snap100%69 snaps
73Chase RoullierC · Every snap100%69 snaps
82Logan ThomasTE · Full-time97%67 snaps
75Brandon ScherffG · Full-time94%65 snaps
76Morgan MosesT · Full-time94%65 snaps
71Wes SchweitzerG · Full-time94%65 snaps
17Terry McLaurinWR · Full-time90%62 snaps
89Cam SimsWR · Full-time80%55 snaps
24Antonio GibsonRB · Heavy rotation65%45 snaps
41J.D. McKissicRB · Rotational41%28 snaps
87Jeremy SprinkleTE · Rotational29%20 snaps
34Peyton BarberRB · Rotational25%17 snaps
83Isaiah WrightWR · Rotational25%17 snaps
15Steven SimsWR · Situational19%13 snaps
80Dontrelle InmanWR · Situational16%11 snaps
88Temarrick HemingwayTE · Situational13%9 snaps
67Wes MartinG · Situational7%5 snaps
60Keith IsmaelC · Situational6%4 snaps
66David SteinmetzT · Situational6%4 snaps
Inactive · 6
Ryan AndersonDEJared NorrisOLBDeshazor EverettSSCornelius LucasTRobert FosterWRJeff BadetWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Dwayne HaskinsQB
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
52Connor WilliamsG · Every snap100%59 snaps
73Joe LooneyC · Every snap100%59 snaps
66Connor McGovernG · Every snap100%59 snaps
14Andy DaltonQB · Every snap100%59 snaps
69Brandon KnightT · Full-time90%53 snaps
86Dalton SchultzTE · Full-time86%51 snaps
19Amari CooperWR · Full-time85%50 snaps
78Terence SteeleT · Full-time83%49 snaps
13Michael GallupWR · Heavy rotation76%45 snaps
88CeeDee LambWR · Heavy rotation71%42 snaps
21Ezekiel ElliottRB · Heavy rotation66%39 snaps
20Tony PollardRB · Rotational36%21 snaps
80Blake BellTE · Rotational31%18 snaps
85Noah BrownWR · Situational22%13 snaps
11Cedrick WilsonWR · Situational20%12 snaps
70Zack MartinG · Situational17%10 snaps
75Cameron ErvingT · Situational10%6 snaps
84Sean McKeonTE · Situational7%4 snaps
Inactive · 7
Anthony BrownCBBradlee AnaeDERon'Dell CarterDEReggie RobinsonFSBen DiNucciQBGreg SenatTMalik TurnerWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cowboys attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Cowboys→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Smith pass−18% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(4:21) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left intended for 17-T.McLaurin INTERCEPTED by 54-J.Smith [58-A.Smith] at WAS 47. 54-J.Smith to WAS 4 for 43 yards (17-T.McLaurin).
Q3 4:21 · Commanders · 3rd & 10 at 50 · gained nothing · -7.47 EP · −18.5% win probability
159 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 170 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 170 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 76 yards from the WAS 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DAL attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
170 of 170 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
170
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
46%
Yards
585
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.5472%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.0264%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR19+0.1926%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.3767%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.2445%
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5+0.2520%
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Cowboys2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cowboys0 RB, 0 TE, 5 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 0 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
170 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
170 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 29
Commanders0Cowboys3
Field goal11 plays, from the Cowboys 28 to the Commanders 15
Commanders6Cowboys3
Commanders7Cowboys3
Touchdown17 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Cowboys 4
The period ended5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 37
2nd quarter48 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Commanders7Cowboys9
Commanders7Cowboys10
Touchdown3 plays, from the Cowboys 44 to the Cowboys 46
Commanders10Cowboys10
Field goal16 plays, from the Commanders 28 to the Cowboys 5
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerEightPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.0 seconds
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 34
Commanders16Cowboys10
Commanders17Cowboys10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Cowboys 19 to the Cowboys 5
Commanders17Cowboys13
Field goal15 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Commanders 14
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter40 plays
Offense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 31
Commanders20Cowboys13
Field goal8 plays, from the Cowboys 33 to the Cowboys 13
Punt8 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 45
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.3 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the Commanders 5 to midfield
Commanders20Cowboys16
Field goal4 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Commanders 29 to the Commanders 31
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter43 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Cowboys 17 to the Cowboys 31
Commanders26Cowboys16
Commanders27Cowboys16
Touchdown2 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 35
Commanders33Cowboys16
Commanders34Cowboys16
Touchdown12 plays, from the Commanders 24 to the Cowboys 37
Commanders40Cowboys16
Touchdown2 plays
Commanders41Cowboys16
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Cowboys 41
The period ended5 plays, from the Cowboys 44 to the Cowboys 32
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Cowboys -2.5
Closing total
46
Commanders moneyline
+122
Cowboys moneyline
-135
Cowboys closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 46; the game landed 57 — over by 11.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
AT&T Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
Commanders 4 days · Cowboys 4 days
Coaches
Ron Rivera vs Mike McCarthy
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
(12:13) (Shotgun) 24-A.Gibson left tackle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:49DAL +8% win prob(:49) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete deep right to 19-A.Cooper. PENALTY on WAS-23-R.Darby, Defensive Pass Interference, 28 yards, enforced at WAS 48 - No Play.
4th · 12:55WAS +8% win prob(12:55) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton sacked at DAL 24 for -7 yards (97-T.Settle).
