2020 Week 13 · Mon, Dec 7, 2020 · State Farm Stadium

Buffalo BillsWinner

San Francisco 49ers

SF -1.5 upsetO 48 ✓Dome49ers closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Buffalo Bills 34–24. Biggest swing: Q1 1:34, BUF +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 1:34BUF — SF BUF ball · 1st & 10SF 60%

(1:34) 17-J.Allen FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 0, RECOVERED by SF-54-F.Warner at BUF 3.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 1:34BUF +12% win prob(1:34) 17-J.Allen FUMBLES (Aborted) at BUF 0, RECOVERED by SF-54-F.Warner at BUF 3.
Q2 · 13:06SF +10% win prob(13:06) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 11-C.Beasley for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 9:23BUF +7% win prob(9:23) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short middle to 85-L.Smith.
Q2 · 3:16SF +7% win prob(3:16) 26-D.Singletary left end pushed ob at SF 4 for 1 yard (33-T.Moore; 20-J.Ward).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	49ers
Offensive plays	67	60
Total yards	450 (edge)	402
Yards per play	6.7 (edge)	6.7
Expected points added / play	0.21 (edge)	0.09
Success rate	61% (edge)	50%
Dropback rate	64%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.53 (edge)	0.28
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.38	-0.28 (edge)
Third downs	4/9	6/11 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	28 (edge)	23
Sacks taken	1	0 (edge)
Turnovers	2	2

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs 0.09.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

32/40, 375 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

22.5 expected points added · +18.2% completion over expected

Passing · SF

Nick MullensQB

26/39, 316 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT

11.1 expected points added · -1.7% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

Devin SingletaryRB

18 att, 61 yds, 0 TD

-0.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Jeffery WilsonRB

7 att, 47 yds, 0 TD

-1.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Cole BeasleyWR

9/11 for 130 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 8.4 expected points added

Receiving · SF

Brandon AiyukWR

5/9 for 95 yds, 1 TD

23% of team targets · 0.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	BUF	BUF 25	12	69	5:43	Fumble
2	SF	SF 2	13	72	7:43	Turnover on downs
3	BUF	BUF 1	1	0	0:10	Fumble
4	SF	BUF 3	4	3	0:40	Touchdown
5	BUF	BUF 23	7	72	2:42	Touchdown
6	SF	SF 19	6	18	2:32	Punt
7	BUF	BUF 31	15	65	7:49	Touchdown
8	SF	SF 25	7	29	1:36	Punt
9	BUF	BUF 10	7	71	1:05	Turnover on downs
10	SF	SF 25	9	53	3:46	Turnover on downs
11	BUF	BUF 25	13	70	5:26	Touchdown
12	SF	SF 25	3	0	0:20	Interception
13	BUF	SF 5	4	11	2:19	Turnover on downs
14	SF	SF 25	7	75	2:43	Touchdown
15	BUF	BUF 25	12	73	5:36	Touchdown
16	SF	SF 25	9	74	2:55	Interception
17	BUF	BUF 2	7	19	3:25	Punt
18	SF	SF 27	14	78	2:47	Touchdown
19	BUF	SF 45	2	0	0:43	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: 49ers gained 78 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	32/40	375	4	0	1	22.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Devin Singletary	18	61	3.4	-0.9
Josh Allen	6	11	1.8	-8.4
Zack Moss	3	9	3.0	-1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Cole Beasley	9	11	130	1	30%	8.4
Stefon Diggs	10	10	92	0	27%	8.5
Gabe Davis	3	4	68	1	11%	5.6
Isaiah McKenzie	2	2	31	1	5%	3.4
Dawson Knox	4	4	27	1	11%	2.1
Devin Singletary	3	4	22	0	11%	1.0
Zack Moss	1	1	5	0	3%	0.1
Lee Smith	0	1	0	0	3%	-4.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Micah Hyde	5	6	1	1
Levi Wallace	6	3	0	0
Tremaine Edmunds	5	1	0	0
Taron Johnson	2	3	0	0
Jordan Poyer	3	2	0	0
A.J. Klein	0	4	0	1
Vernon Butler	1	2	0	0
Tre'Davious White	2	1	1	1
Matt Milano	2	0	0	0
Darryl Johnson	2	0	0	0

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Nick Mullens	26/39	316	3	2	0	11.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Jeffery Wilson	7	47	6.7	-1.1
Raheem Mostert	9	42	4.7	-0.6
Kyle Juszczyk	2	5	2.5	-1.2
Deebo Samuel	1	3	3.0	-0.4
Tevin Coleman	2	-11	-5.5	-2.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brandon Aiyuk	5	9	95	1	23%	0.6
Deebo Samuel	6	9	73	0	23%	3.4
Kendrick Bourne	4	6	35	0	15%	1.5
Charlie Woerner	2	2	33	0	5%	2.7
Jordan Reed	3	4	32	1	10%	3.3
Ross Dwelley	2	2	29	0	5%	2.9
Jeffery Wilson	2	5	12	0	13%	-4.3
Kyle Juszczyk	1	1	6	1	3%	1.4
Raheem Mostert	1	1	1	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Jason Verrett	10	0	1
Dontae Johnson	7	1	1
Jimmie Ward	3	4	0
Tarvarius Moore	3	3	0
Fred Warner	3	3	0
Dre Greenlaw	4	2	0
Arik Armstead	2	2	0
Kerry Hyder	3	0	0
Kevin Givens	3	0	1
Javon Kinlaw	1	2	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -1.5
Closing total: 48
BUF moneyline: +110
SF moneyline: -122

49ers closed -1.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 48; the game landed 58 — over by 10.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: BUF 8 days · SF 8 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Kyle Shanahan