2020 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 6, 2020 · Hard Rock Stadium

Cincinnati Bengals

Miami DolphinsWinner

MIA -10.5 ✓U 43 ✓Dolphins closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 12.

Miami Dolphins 19–7. Biggest swing: Q1 3:32, MIA +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 3:32CIN — MIA CIN ball · 3rd & 2MIA 83%

(3:32) (Shotgun) 8-B.Allen pass short left to 83-T.Boyd for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 3:32MIA +20% win prob(3:32) (Shotgun) 8-B.Allen pass short left to 83-T.Boyd for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 1:08CIN +7% win prob(1:08) (Shotgun) 8-B.Allen pass incomplete short right to 83-T.Boyd. PENALTY on CIN-83-T.Boyd, Disqualification, 15 yards, enforced between downs. MIA-25-X.Howard was ejected from the game.
Q3 · 12:35MIA +6% win prob(12:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 37-M.Gaskin to CIN 5 for 35 yards (30-J.Bates III).
Q2 · 3:27MIA +6% win prob(3:27) (Shotgun) 8-B.Allen pass short left to 85-T.Higgins to MIA 30 for 11 yards (24-By.Jones).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bengals	Dolphins
Offensive plays	50	65
Total yards	196	408 (edge)
Yards per play	3.9	6.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.24	-0.01 (edge)
Success rate	32%	46% (edge)
Dropback rate	68%	60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.30	0.18 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.11 (edge)	-0.30
Third downs	3/12 (edge)	2/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	10	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	6	0 (edge)
Turnovers	3	2 (edge)

Dolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.24.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

26/39, 296 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

7.1 expected points added · +2.8% completion over expected

Passing · CIN

Brandon AllenQB

11/19, 153 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-7.0 expected points added · -8.2% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

Myles GaskinRB

21 att, 90 yds, 0 TD

-9.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CIN

Giovani BernardRB

12 att, 30 yds, 0 TD

-3.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIA

Mike GesickiTE

9/11 for 88 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 3.5 expected points added

Receiving · CIN

Tyler BoydWR

1/4 for 72 yds, 1 TD

15% of team targets · -0.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 25	7	17	2:46	Punt
2	MIA	MIA 9	4	6	1:37	Punt
3	CIN	CIN 29	7	26	3:44	Interception
4	MIA	MIA 16	6	16	2:13	Punt
5	CIN	CIN 20	4	80	1:20	Touchdown
6	MIA	MIA 25	11	51	6:38	Turnover on downs
7	CIN	CIN 25	5	5	2:14	Punt
8	MIA	MIA 9	7	43	2:28	Defensive touchdown
9	CIN	CIN 12	11	43	6:02	Turnover on downs
10	MIA	MIA 43	6	27	0:58	Turnover on downs
11	MIA	MIA 25	10	80	3:25	Touchdown
12	CIN	CIN 22	5	6	1:52	Punt
13	MIA	MIA 25	10	70	4:10	Turnover on downs
14	CIN	CIN 25	5	-10	1:41	Punt
15	MIA	CIN 47	12	46	5:31	Turnover on downs
16	CIN	CIN 25	5	-1	1:38	Punt
17	MIA	MIA 35	5	24	1:44	Punt
18	CIN	CIN 9	8	-2	4:19	Defensive touchdown
19	MIA	MIA 40	3	33	1:48	Fumble
20	CIN	50	6	32	2:08	Interception
21	MIA	MIA 9	4	12	1:44	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bengals gained 80 scrimmage yards over 4 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Brandon Allen	11/19	153	1	1	5	-7.0
Ryan Finley	6/7	40	0	1	1	-3.7
Tyler Boyd	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Giovani Bernard	12	30	2.5	-3.0
Samaje Perine	3	7	2.3	-0.9
Brandon Allen	2	3	1.5	2.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Tyler Boyd	1	4	72	1	15%	-0.0
Tee Higgins	5	8	56	0	30%	4.8
Drew Sample	7	7	49	0	26%	0.5
Alex Erickson	2	3	17	0	11%	-4.0
Brandon Allen	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5
Mason Schreck	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.8
A.J. Green	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.8
Giovani Bernard	2	2	-1	0	7%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Jessie Bates	9	3	0
Sam Hubbard	5	3	0
LeShaun Sims	3	4	0
Mackensie Alexander	1	5	0
Vonn Bell	3	3	0
Josh Bynes	4	2	0
Logan Wilson	3	1	1
William Jackson	3	0	3
Xavier Williams	2	1	0
Carl Lawson	1	1	0

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tua Tagovailoa	26/39	296	1	0	0	7.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Myles Gaskin	21	90	4.3	-9.5
Lynn Bowden	1	11	11.0	1.1
Patrick Laird	3	6	2.0	-1.0
Tua Tagovailoa	3	3	1.0	1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Gesicki	9	11	88	1	29%	3.5
Myles Gaskin	2	2	51	0	5%	4.4
Jakeem Grant	2	6	42	0	16%	-1.4
Lynn Bowden	4	4	41	0	11%	3.3
DeVante Parker	4	8	35	0	21%	-3.3
Patrick Laird	2	3	16	0	8%	-0.2
Durham Smythe	2	2	16	0	5%	1.1
Mack Hollins	1	1	7	0	3%	0.0
Adam Shaheen	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kyle Van Noy	6	0	3.0	1
Jerome Baker	2	3	0.0	0
Brandon Jones	2	3	0.0	0
Eric Rowe	3	1	0.0	0
Shaq Lawson	3	1	2.0	1
Calvin Munson	1	2	0.0	0
Bobby McCain	3	0	0.0	1
Zach Sieler	2	0	1.0	0
Christian Wilkins	2	0	0.0	0
Byron Jones	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIA -10.5
Closing total: 43
CIN moneyline: +397
MIA moneyline: -491

Dolphins closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 12.

Total closed 43; the game landed 26 — under by 17.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 81°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Ronald Torbert
Rest: CIN 7 days · MIA 7 days
Coaches: Zac Taylor vs Brian Flores