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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:49 AM ET · 16 to play
2020 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 6, 2020 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
BengalsCincinnati7
BY 12final margin
DolphinsMiami19
Cincinnati Bengals 7 at Miami Dolphins 19. Final.
Dolphins -10.5 ✓U 43 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 13
Miami Dolphins 19, Bengals 7 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 3:32, 3rd and 2, on Tyler Boyd — 20.0 win-probability points to the Bengals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 3:32 · 3rd and 2
Tyler Boyd
Bengals
(3:32) (Shotgun) 8-B.Allen pass short left to 83-T.Boyd for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dolphins closed -10.5 and covered, winning by 12.
Miami Dolphins 19–7. Biggest swing: Q1 3:32, Bengals +20.0% win probability on one snap.
20.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Brandon AllenDolphinsQ2 1:08(1:08) (Shotgun) 8-B.Allen pass incomplete short right to 83-T.Boyd. PENALTY on CIN-83-T.Boyd, Disqualification, 15 yards, enforced between downs. MIA-25-X.Howard was ejected from the game.
7.5pts
Myles GaskinDolphinsQ3 12:35(12:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 37-M.Gaskin to CIN 5 for 35 yards (30-J.Bates III).
6.2pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Dolphins won this one — 46% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Bengals at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Dolphins won this one — 7 chunk plays, against Bengals at 3 chunk plays.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Dolphins won this one — +0.18 expected points per dropback, against Bengals at -0.30 expected points per dropback.
Dolphinsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Dolphins won this one — -0.01 expected points per snap, against Bengals at -0.24 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 15.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Bengals154 of 163 plays carry both curves
(3:32) (Shotgun) 8-B.Allen pass short left to 83-T.Boyd for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −20.0 for DolphinsExpected points −6.34 for DolphinsThe model had Bengals 25 points higher than the market did.play 29
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 3:32MIA +20% win prob(3:32) (Shotgun) 8-B.Allen pass short left to 83-T.Boyd for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 1:08CIN +7% win prob(1:08) (Shotgun) 8-B.Allen pass incomplete short right to 83-T.Boyd. PENALTY on CIN-83-T.Boyd, Disqualification, 15 yards, enforced between downs. MIA-25-X.Howard was ejected from the game.
3rd · 12:35MIA +6% win prob(12:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass deep left to 37-M.Gaskin to CIN 5 for 35 yards (30-J.Bates III).
2nd · 3:27MIA +6% win prob(3:27) (Shotgun) 8-B.Allen pass short left to 85-T.Higgins to MIA 30 for 11 yards (24-By.Jones).
2nd · 9:40MIA +5% win prob(9:40) 10-K.Huber punts 52 yards to MIA 18, Center-46-C.Harris. 19-J.Grant to MIA 32 for 14 yards (17-S.Morgan; 82-C.Carter). PENALTY on MIA-23-N.Igbinoghene, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at MIA 18.
1st · 7:00CIN +5% win prob(7:00) 8-B.Allen pass deep left intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 25-X.Howard [91-E.Ogbah] at MIA 16. 25-X.Howard to MIA 16 for no gain (83-T.Boyd).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mike Gesicki's 5-yard touchdown catch with 11:41 left in the 3rd put Miami Dolphins ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 2 scores that followed.
2nd11:46Jason Sanders·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap B.Ferguson+37–3
2nd0:03Jason Sanders·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap B.Ferguson+37–6
3rd11:41Mike Gesicki·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua TagovailoaLead never changed again+77–13
3rd5:37Jason Sanders·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap B.Ferguson+37–16
4th13:24Jason Sanders·19-yd field goal19-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap B.Ferguson+37–19
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bengalscategory by categoryDolphins
Bengals1–8Dolphins
196Total yards408
3.9Yards per play6.3
32%Success rate46%
25%Third-down rate20%
0Red-zone touchdowns1
3Explosive plays7
10First downs21
6Sacks taken0
3Turnovers2
The read
Dolphins ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.24Bengals: −0.24 expected points added per play
−0.01Dolphins: −0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.30Bengals: −0.30 expected points added per play
+0.18Dolphins: +0.18 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.11Bengals: −0.11 expected points added per play
−0.30Dolphins: −0.30 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bengals ran 50 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 65 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Bengals 3, Dolphins 4.
NoteDolphins won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.01 expected points added per play vs -0.24.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
MIA's sack or hit rate, 32.4%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 13 — 3.2 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 22.5% in week 5.
2.5 times their own weekly swing above their number.
34 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 27 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.3 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (−1.15× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Dolphins32.4%
off script — got home · +16.8 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+2.53× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 32.4%, 16.8 points above their season mean of 15.5% and 2.5 times their own 6.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Bengals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bengals←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Allen pass+20% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(3:32) (Shotgun) 8-B.Allen pass short left to 83-T.Boyd for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 3:32 · Bengals · 3rd & 2 at CIN 28 · gained 72 · +6.34 EP · +20.1% win probability
152 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was CIN moving 80 yards from the CIN 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, CIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
-0.07
Success rate
42%
Yards
602
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36-0.3572%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR20-0.0285%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR19-0.1653%
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR17+0.1835%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9-0.4333%
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR5-0.2160%
Bengals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR4——
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Bengals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 42
Punt4 plays, from the Dolphins 9 to the Dolphins 15
Intercepted7 plays, from the Bengals 29 to the Dolphins 45
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 16 to the Dolphins 32
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.5 seconds
Bengals6Dolphins0
Bengals7Dolphins0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bengals 20 to the Bengals 28
The period ended9 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Bengals 31
2nd quarter43 plays
Bengals7Dolphins3
Field goal7 plays, from the Bengals 20 to the Bengals 2
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 32
Punt8 plays, from the Dolphins 9 to the Bengals 48
No good14 plays, from the Bengals 12 to the Dolphins 20
Bengals7Dolphins6
Field goal8 plays, from the Dolphins 43 to the Bengals 30
3rd quarter39 plays
Bengals7Dolphins12
Bengals7Dolphins13
Touchdown11 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Bengals 5
Punt5 plays, from the Bengals 22 to the Bengals 28
Bengals7Dolphins16
Field goal10 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Bengals 5
Punt5 plays
The period ended8 plays, from the Bengals 47 to the Bengals 25
4th quarter42 plays
Bengals7Dolphins19
Field goal5 plays, from the Bengals 16 to the Bengals 1
Punt6 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 29
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 35 to the Bengals 41
Punt9 plays, from the Bengals 9 to the Bengals 20
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Dolphins 40 to the Dolphins 47
Intercepted6 plays, from midfield to the Dolphins 18
The period ended6 plays, from the Dolphins 9 to the Dolphins 21
Punt1 play
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
