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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:48 AM ET · 16 to play
Cleveland Browns 41 at Tennessee Titans 35. Final.
Titans -4 upsetO 54 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 13
Cleveland Browns 41, Titans 35 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 13:14, 1st and 10, on Donovan Peoples-Jones — 12.3 win-probability points to the Browns on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 13:14 · 1st and 10
Donovan Peoples-Jones
Browns
(13:14) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Titans closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Cleveland Browns 41–35. Biggest swing: Q2 13:14, Browns +12.3% win probability on one snap.
12.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Derrick HenryBrownsQ1 3:15(3:15) 22-D.Henry right guard to TEN 20 for -3 yards (98-S.Richardson). FUMBLES (98-S.Richardson), RECOVERED by CLE-42-K.Joseph at TEN 21.
10.3pts
Unnamed on the sheetTitansQ2 11:35(11:35) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to CLE 20, Center-47-M.Overton. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 34 for 14 yards (53-W.Compton; 49-N.Dzubnar). PENALTY on CLE-52-E.Lee, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 20.
10.4pts
What separated them
Third down
Browns won this one — 10 of 16 on third down, against Titans at 2 of 10 on third down.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Browns won this one — 1 giveaway, against Titans at 3 giveaways.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Browns won this one — +0.74 expected points per dropback, against Titans at +0.25 expected points per dropback.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Browns won this one — +0.27 expected points per snap, against Titans at +0.04 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 12 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Titanshigher on Browns182 of 193 plays carry both curves
(13:14) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −12.3 for TitansExpected points −5.83 for TitansThe model had Browns 7 points higher than the market did.play 49
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 13:14TEN +12% win prob(13:14) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 11:35TEN +10% win prob(11:35) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to CLE 20, Center-47-M.Overton. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 34 for 14 yards (53-W.Compton; 49-N.Dzubnar). PENALTY on CLE-52-E.Lee, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 20.
1st · 3:15CLE +10% win prob(3:15) 22-D.Henry right guard to TEN 20 for -3 yards (98-S.Richardson). FUMBLES (98-S.Richardson), RECOVERED by CLE-42-K.Joseph at TEN 21.
1st · 13:41TEN +9% win prob(13:41) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 82-R.Higgins pushed ob at TEN 27 for 35 yards (31-K.Byard).
1st · 5:54TEN +9% win prob(5:54) (Shotgun) 80-J.Landry pass short left to 6-B.Mayfield ran ob at TEN 24 for 6 yards [54-R.Evans]. PENALTY on TEN-54-R.Evans, Roughing the Passer, 12 yards, enforced at TEN 24.
2nd · 5:51TEN +8% win prob(5:51) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 82-R.Higgins for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cody Parkey's 27-yard field goal with 10:47 left in the 1st put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 11 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:47Cody Parkey·27-yd field goal27-yard field goalholder J.Gillan · snap C.HughlettLead never changed again+33–0
4th0:33Cameron Batson·8-yd TD catch8-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan Tannehill+741–35
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Brownscategory by categoryTitans
Browns8–1Titans
459Total yards433
6.7Yards per play6.4
48%Success rate47%
63%Third-down rate20%
4Red-zone touchdowns3
6Explosive plays5
24First downs25
0Sacks taken3
1Turnovers3
The read
Browns ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.74 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.27Browns: +0.27 expected points added per play
+0.04Titans: +0.04 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.74Browns: +0.74 expected points added per play
+0.25Titans: +0.25 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.25Browns: −0.25 expected points added per play
−0.47Titans: −0.47 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 69 snaps at a 52% dropback rate against Titans’s 68 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Browns 6, Titans 6.
NoteBrowns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs 0.04.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 13Against their seasonTendencies
TEN's early-down pass rate, 71.2%, is past their previous high of 60.0% in week 6 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
2.4 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 4.0-swing turn from week 12.
52 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points.
high through week 13Against their seasonFourth Down
TEN's fourth-and-short go rate, 100.0%, is past their previous high of 33.3% in week 5 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 13.
A 2.3-swing turn from week 12.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 7 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 29.3 points.
TEN's pass rate over expected turned over: −15.8 pts in week 12 against −1.6 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
66 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · −0.8 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (−0.16× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Titans2.8%
inside their normal wobble · −7.8 vs their 10.6%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−0.99× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTEN's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 71.2%, 25.2 points above their season mean of 45.9% and 2.4 times their own 10.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
75Joel BitonioG · Every snap100%73 snaps
71Jedrick WillsT · Every snap100%73 snaps
78Jack ConklinT · Every snap100%73 snaps
77Wyatt TellerG · Every snap100%73 snaps
64J.C. TretterC · Every snap99%72 snaps
6Baker MayfieldQB · Every snap99%72 snaps
81Austin HooperTE · Heavy rotation74%54 snaps
82Rashard HigginsWR · Heavy rotation67%49 snaps
80Jarvis LandryWR · Heavy rotation66%48 snaps
11Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Heavy rotation56%41 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Titans attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Titans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Mayfield pass+15% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(13:14) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 13:14 · Browns · 1st & 10 at CLE 25 · gained 75 · +5.83 EP · +15.1% win probability
180 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 193 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 193 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 91 yards from the TEN 9 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TEN attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
193 of 193 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
193
EPA per play
+0.14
Success rate
45%
Yards
891
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR35-0.1683%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.5053%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR25+0.4564%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16+0.1469%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10+0.4530%
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR10-0.7120%
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Browns2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Titans1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
193 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
193 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.1 seconds
Browns3Titans0
Field goal10 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Titans 8
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Titans 28 to the Browns 42
Browns9Titans0
Browns10Titans0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Browns 41 to the Titans 1
Fumble lost2 plays
The period ended7 plays, from the Titans 21 to the Titans 2
2nd quarter53 plays
Browns16Titans0
Browns17Titans0
Touchdown2 plays
Browns17Titans6
Browns17Titans7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Titans 26 to the Browns 17
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
Browns23Titans7
Browns24Titans7
Touchdown3 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 26
Browns30Titans7
Browns31Titans7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Browns 10 to the Titans 17
Punt5 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 28
Browns37Titans7
Browns38Titans7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Browns 35 to the Titans 1
Fumble lost7 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Browns 48
3rd quarter47 plays
Browns38Titans13
Touchdown6 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Browns 22
Punt6 plays
Browns38Titans19
Browns38Titans21
Touchdown7 plays, from the Titans 39 to the Browns 19
Browns41Titans21
Field goal9 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Titans 25
Intercepted17 plays, from the Titans 24 to the Browns 17
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter54 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Browns 32 to the Browns 33
Punt4 plays, from the Titans 30 to the Titans 37
Punt12 plays, from the Browns 20 to the Browns 44
Browns41Titans27
Browns41Titans28
Touchdown18 plays, from the Titans 9 to the Browns 1
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Titans 45 to the Titans 36
Browns41Titans34
Browns41Titans35
Touchdown6 plays, from the Browns 13 to the Browns 8
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
