2020 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 6, 2020 · Nissan Stadium

Cleveland BrownsWinner

Tennessee Titans

TEN -4 upsetO 54 ✓Titans closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Cleveland Browns 41–35. Biggest swing: Q2 13:14, TEN +12% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 13:14CLE — TEN CLE ball · 1st & 10CLE 64%

(13:14) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 13:14TEN +12% win prob(13:14) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 11:35TEN +10% win prob(11:35) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to CLE 20, Center-47-M.Overton. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 34 for 14 yards (53-W.Compton; 49-N.Dzubnar). PENALTY on CLE-52-E.Lee, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CLE 20.
Q1 · 3:15CLE +10% win prob(3:15) 22-D.Henry right guard to TEN 20 for -3 yards (98-S.Richardson). FUMBLES (98-S.Richardson), RECOVERED by CLE-42-K.Joseph at TEN 21.
Q1 · 13:41TEN +9% win prob(13:41) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep right to 82-R.Higgins pushed ob at TEN 27 for 35 yards (31-K.Byard).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Browns	Titans
Offensive plays	69	68
Total yards	459 (edge)	433
Yards per play	6.7 (edge)	6.4
Expected points added / play	0.27 (edge)	0.04
Success rate	48% (edge)	47%
Dropback rate	52%	71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.74 (edge)	0.25
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.25 (edge)	-0.47
Third downs	10/16 (edge)	2/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	24	25 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1 (edge)	3

Browns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs 0.04.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

29/45, 389 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

14.1 expected points added · +5.8% completion over expected

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

25/33, 334 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

24.9 expected points added · +14.6% completion over expected

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

18 att, 80 yds, 1 TD

2.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

15 att, 60 yds, 0 TD

-9.2 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TEN

Corey DavisWR

11/12 for 182 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 14.2 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

Rashard HigginsWR

6/9 for 95 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 9.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 25	9	71	4:17	Turnover on downs
2	TEN	TEN 28	7	30	2:52	Turnover on downs
3	CLE	CLE 41	10	52	4:32	Touchdown
4	TEN	TEN 23	2	-2	0:10	Fumble
5	CLE	TEN 21	7	20	3:13	Touchdown
6	TEN	TEN 26	6	74	1:42	Touchdown
7	CLE	CLE 25	3	75	0:10	Touchdown
8	TEN	TEN 25	5	1	1:40	Punt
9	CLE	CLE 10	12	75	5:38	Touchdown
10	TEN	TEN 25	5	-1	1:29	Punt
11	CLE	CLE 35	10	51	3:22	Touchdown
12	TEN	TEN 25	6	46	0:55	Fumble
13	TEN	TEN 25	5	75	1:08	Touchdown
14	CLE	CLE 25	5	7	2:34	Punt
15	TEN	TEN 39	7	60	2:10	Turnover on downs
16	CLE	CLE 25	9	60	3:39	Turnover on downs
17	TEN	TEN 24	14	44	5:14	Interception
18	CLE	CLE 30	4	3	1:13	Punt
19	TEN	TEN 30	4	-2	1:14	Punt
20	CLE	CLE 20	10	34	7:05	Punt
21	TEN	TEN 9	16	100	4:20	Touchdown
22	CLE	TEN 45	5	11	0:35	Fumble
23	TEN	CLE 13	5	8	0:20	Touchdown
24	CLE	TEN 43	2	0	0:28	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Titans gained 100 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	25/33	334	4	0	0	24.9
Jarvis Landry	1/1	6	0	0	0	1.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Nick Chubb	18	80	4.4	1	2.2
Kareem Hunt	14	33	2.4	0	-5.5
Baker Mayfield	4	5	1.3	0	-6.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Rashard Higgins	6	9	95	1	28%	9.4
Donovan Peoples-Jones	2	3	92	1	9%	6.2
Jarvis Landry	8	10	62	1	31%	3.5
Nick Chubb	1	1	26	0	3%	2.0
Kareem Hunt	3	3	24	0	9%	2.0
Austin Hooper	2	2	24	0	6%	3.4
Baker Mayfield	1	1	6	0	3%	1.8
David Njoku	1	1	5	0	3%	0.3
D'Ernest Johnson	1	1	5	0	3%	-0.2
Kendall Lamm	1	1	1	1	3%	1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Andrew Sendejo	5	2	0.0	0	0
Malcolm Smith	3	3	1.0	0	0
B.J. Goodson	4	2	0.0	0	1
Mack Wilson	3	2	0.0	0	0
Sheldon Richardson	3	1	0.0	0	0
Terrance Mitchell	3	1	0.0	0	0
M.J. Stewart	2	1	0.0	1	2
Sione Takitaki	2	1	0.0	0	0
Kevin Johnson	2	1	0.0	0	1
Karl Joseph	3	0	0.0	0	0

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	29/45	389	3	1	3	14.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	15	60	4.0	0	-9.2
Jeremy McNichols	2	2	1.0	1	-0.0
Cameron Batson	1	0	0.0	0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Corey Davis	11	12	182	1	29%	14.2
A.J. Brown	4	7	87	0	17%	4.0
Anthony Firkser	5	7	51	0	17%	2.2
MyCole Pruitt	1	2	22	1	5%	1.5
Jeremy McNichols	3	4	15	0	10%	-0.7
Cameron Batson	3	3	14	1	7%	6.3
Derrick Henry	1	1	9	0	2%	0.7
Adam Humphries	1	4	9	0	10%	-6.0
Geoff Swaim	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.6
Aaron Brewer	0	1	0	0	2%	-1.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Jeffery Simmons	3	4	0
Malcolm Butler	6	1	0
Kevin Byard	4	2	0
Desmond King	3	3	0
Jack Crawford	5	1	0
Breon Borders	3	2	2
Rashaan Evans	2	3	0
David Long Jr.	2	3	0
Kenny Vaccaro	3	1	1
Harold Landry	2	1	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TEN -4
Closing total: 54
CLE moneyline: +178
TEN moneyline: -200

Titans closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 54; the game landed 76 — over by 22.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Nissan Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 52°F, wind 1 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: CLE 7 days · TEN 7 days
Coaches: Kevin Stefanski vs Mike Vrabel