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2020 Week 13 · Tue, Dec 8, 2020 · M&T Bank Stadium
Final
CowboysDallas17
BY 17final margin
RavensBaltimore34
Dallas Cowboys 17 at Baltimore Ravens 34. Final.
Ravens -8.5 ✓O 46 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 13
Baltimore Ravens 34, Cowboys 17 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 8:20, 1st and 10, on Patrick Queen — 15.6 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 8:20 · 1st and 10
Patrick Queen
Ravens
(8:20) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle intended for 19-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 48-P.Queen (98-B.Williams) at DAL 38. 48-P.Queen to DAL 38 for no gain (73-J.Looney).
Ravens closed -8.5 and covered, winning by 17.
Baltimore Ravens 34–17 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 8:20, Ravens +15.6% win probability on one snap.
15.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Lamar JacksonRavensQ1 0:32(:32) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson up the middle for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
13.2pts
Justin TuckerCowboysQ2 8:57(8:57) 9-J.Tucker 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
10.0pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.43 expected points per carry, against Cowboys at -0.20 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Ravens won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Cowboys at 6 chunk plays.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Ravens won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cowboys at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Cowboys owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Ravens at 2 touchdowns on 7 trips.
Cowboysthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cowboys.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ravenshigher on Cowboys167 of 179 plays carry both curves
(8:20) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle intended for 19-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 48-P.Queen (98-B.Williams) at DAL 38. 48-P.Queen to DAL 38 for no gain (73-J.Looney).
Swing +15.6 for RavensExpected points +5.18 for RavensThe model had Cowboys 17 points higher than the market did.play 51
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 8:20DAL +16% win prob(8:20) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle intended for 19-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 48-P.Queen (98-B.Williams) at DAL 38. 48-P.Queen to DAL 38 for no gain (73-J.Looney).
1st · 0:32BAL +13% win prob(:32) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson up the middle for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 8:57DAL +10% win prob(8:57) 9-J.Tucker 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
1st · 7:11DAL +9% win prob(7:11) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle intended for 15-M.Brown INTERCEPTED by 23-D.Thompson at BAL 37. 23-D.Thompson to BAL 34 for 3 yards (43-J.Hill).
2nd · 14:25BAL +8% win prob(14:25) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 13-M.Gallup for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on BAL-44-M.Humphrey, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.
2nd · 8:15BAL +7% win prob(8:15) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 80-M.Boykin for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Miles Boykin's 38-yard touchdown catch with 8:15 left in the 2nd put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st4:24Greg Zuerlein·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder H.Niswander · snap L.Ladouceur+33–0
Ravens ahead 6–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.03Cowboys: +0.03 expected points added per play
+0.27Ravens: +0.27 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.16Cowboys: +0.16 expected points added per play
+0.05Ravens: +0.05 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.20Cowboys: −0.20 expected points added per play
+0.43Ravens: +0.43 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 77 snaps at a 64% dropback rate against Ravens’s 54 at 41%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 3, Ravens 7.
NoteRavens won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.27 expected points added per play vs 0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
DAL's sack or hit rate, 0.0%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 13 — 2.8 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 3.7% in week 6.
A 2.6-swing turn from week 12.
22 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
BAL's early-down pass rate, 31.0%, was the lowest of the 30 team-games charted in week 13 — 2.4 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous low of 37.7% in week 8.
42 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 18 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −12.9 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−1.77× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Ravens10.2%
inside their normal wobble · −7.4 vs their 17.6%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−0.78× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDAL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 12.9 points below their season mean of 12.9% and 1.8 times their own 7.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
73Joe LooneyC · Every snap100%79 snaps
69Brandon KnightT · Every snap100%79 snaps
78Terence SteeleT · Every snap100%79 snaps
52Connor WilliamsG · Every snap100%79 snaps
66Connor McGovernG · Every snap100%79 snaps
14Andy DaltonQB · Every snap100%79 snaps
13Michael GallupWR · Full-time94%74 snaps
86Dalton SchultzTE · Full-time90%71 snaps
19Amari CooperWR · Full-time87%69 snaps
21Ezekiel ElliottRB · Heavy rotation63%50 snaps
88CeeDee LambWR · Heavy rotation61%48 snaps
20Tony PollardRB · Rotational39%31 snaps
11Cedrick WilsonWR · Rotational25%20 snaps
80Blake BellTE · Situational23%18 snaps
85Noah BrownWR · Situational14%11 snaps
84Sean McKeonTE · Situational4%3 snaps
Inactive · 7
Anthony BrownCBBradlee AnaeDERon'Dell CarterDEBen DiNucciQBDonovan WilsonSSCameron ErvingTMalik TurnerWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Ravens attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Ravens→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Dalton pass−18% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(8:20) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle intended for 19-A.Cooper INTERCEPTED by 48-P.Queen (98-B.Williams) at DAL 38. 48-P.Queen to DAL 38 for no gain (73-J.Looney).
Q2 8:20 · Cowboys · 1st & 10 at DAL 37 · gained nothing · -5.18 EP · −18.5% win probability
165 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was BAL moving 75 yards from the BAL 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BAL attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
42%
Yards
789
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR63-0.0270%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR22+0.0555%
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR16+0.546%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.1145%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.0417%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR6+0.120%
Cowboys2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
Cowboys1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Ravens1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Cowboys 19 to the Cowboys 42
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Intercepted5 plays, from the Ravens 16 to the Ravens 33
Cowboys3Ravens0
Field goal6 plays, from the Ravens 34 to the Ravens 13
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Cowboys3Ravens6
Cowboys3Ravens7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Cowboys 37
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter53 plays
Cowboys9Ravens7
Cowboys10Ravens7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Ravens 14 to the Ravens 13
No good11 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Cowboys 13
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Intercepted2 plays, from the Cowboys 26 to the Cowboys 37
Cowboys10Ravens13
Cowboys10Ravens14
Touchdown2 plays
No good14 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Ravens 17
Cowboys10Ravens17
Field goal7 plays, from the Ravens 30 to the Cowboys 17
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Cowboys 10 to midfield
3rd quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 32 to the Ravens 38
No good9 plays, from the Cowboys 38 to the Ravens 35
Cowboys10Ravens23
Cowboys10Ravens24
Touchdown11 plays, from the Ravens 43 to the Cowboys 20
The period ended13 plays, from the Cowboys 22 to the Ravens 29
4th quarter53 plays
No good2 plays
Cowboys10Ravens27
Field goal11 plays, from the Ravens 42 to the Cowboys 4
Cowboys16Ravens27
Cowboys17Ravens27
Touchdown15 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Ravens 1
Cowboys17Ravens33
Cowboys17Ravens34
Touchdown11 plays, from the Cowboys 44 to the Cowboys 5
The period ended14 plays, from the Cowboys 25 to the Ravens 33
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
