2020 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 6, 2020 · Arrowhead Stadium

Denver Broncos

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

KC -13 no coverU 51 ✓Chiefs closed -13, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Kansas City Chiefs 22–16. Biggest swing: Q3 3:54, KC +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 3:54DEN — KC DEN ball · 1st & 10KC 65%

(3:54) 3-D.Lock pass short left to 81-T.Patrick for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 3:54KC +13% win prob(3:54) 3-D.Lock pass short left to 81-T.Patrick for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 1:13KC +12% win prob(1:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 87-T.Kelce for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DEN-57-D.Walker, Defensive Offside, declined.
Q2 · 9:12KC +9% win prob(9:12) (Shotgun) 25-M.Gordon up the middle pushed ob at KC 18 for 65 yards (22-J.Thornhill).
Q3 · 3:50KC +7% win prob(3:50) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 10-T.Hill ran ob at DEN 45 for 30 yards (21-A.Bouye).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Broncos	Chiefs
Offensive plays	62	62
Total yards	330	448 (edge)
Yards per play	5.3	7.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.09	0.17 (edge)
Success rate	40%	50% (edge)
Dropback rate	48%	71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09	0.19 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.10	0.12 (edge)
Third downs	7/13 (edge)	3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	18	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	1
Turnovers	2	0 (edge)

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs 0.09.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

25/40, 318 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

6.1 expected points added · -0.7% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Drew LockQB

15/28, 151 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

3.1 expected points added · -7.4% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Melvin GordonRB

15 att, 131 yds, 0 TD

6.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Le'Veon BellRB

11 att, 40 yds, 0 TD

0.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

8/12 for 136 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 8.1 expected points added

Receiving · KC

Tyreek HillWR

6/11 for 58 yds, 0 TD

28% of team targets · -6.0 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DEN	DEN 25	6	41	2:33	Interception
2	KC	KC 10	6	26	2:39	Punt
3	DEN	DEN 23	12	42	5:50	Turnover on downs
4	KC	KC 25	8	58	3:38	Turnover on downs
5	DEN	DEN 21	6	19	1:51	Punt
6	KC	KC 21	9	39	2:52	Punt
7	DEN	DEN 10	8	94	4:11	Touchdown
8	KC	KC 25	8	54	3:44	Turnover on downs
9	DEN	DEN 35	9	26	2:14	Turnover on downs
10	KC	KC 47	5	48	0:28	Turnover on downs
11	KC	KC 25	11	62	4:28	Turnover on downs
12	DEN	DEN 28	13	68	6:42	Touchdown
13	KC	KC 25	9	75	2:44	Touchdown
14	DEN	DEN 25	7	14	2:48	Punt
15	KC	KC 26	9	26	3:29	Punt
16	DEN	DEN 8	8	21	3:42	Punt
17	KC	KC 15	10	60	5:03	Turnover on downs
18	DEN	DEN 25	5	5	0:40	Interception
19	KC	DEN 49	1	0	0:24	End of game

0 of 19 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 94 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Lock	15/28	151	2	2	0	3.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Melvin Gordon	15	131	8.7	6.7
Phillip Lindsay	14	26	1.9	-4.8
K.J. Hamler	2	13	6.5	0.8
Drew Lock	2	9	4.5	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Noah Fant	4	7	57	0	26%	3.8
Tim Patrick	4	4	44	2	15%	5.2
K.J. Hamler	2	5	16	0	19%	-0.3
Melvin Gordon	1	2	11	0	7%	0.3
Tyrie Cleveland	1	1	11	0	4%	0.8
Nick Vannett	2	2	7	0	7%	-1.1
Jerry Jeudy	1	4	5	0	15%	-1.5
Phillip Lindsay	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.4
Troy Fumagalli	0	1	0	0	4%	-3.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Kareem Jackson	8	2	1
Justin Simmons	5	3	0
Josey Jewell	2	5	0
Michael Ojemudia	6	1	0
Alexander Johnson	1	5	0
A.J. Bouye	3	1	2
DeShawn Williams	1	2	1
Bradley Chubb	1	1	0
Malik Reed	2	0	0
Dre'Mont Jones	2	0	0

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	25/40	318	1	0	1	6.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Le'Veon Bell	11	40	3.6	0.4
Darrel Williams	6	38	6.3	-0.0
Tyreek Hill	1	30	30.0	1.8
Patrick Mahomes	4	26	6.5	1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	8	12	136	1	30%	8.1
Tyreek Hill	6	11	58	0	28%	-6.0
Demarcus Robinson	2	2	39	0	5%	3.4
Sammy Watkins	4	6	35	0	15%	2.0
Le'Veon Bell	2	3	15	0	8%	-0.3
Nick Keizer	1	1	15	0	3%	1.0
Mecole Hardman	1	3	15	0	8%	-0.1
Darrel Williams	1	2	5	0	5%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Anthony Hitchens	4	3	0	0
L'Jarius Sneed	4	2	0	0
Tyrann Mathieu	3	2	2	2
Daniel Sorensen	3	2	0	0
Damien Wilson	2	3	0	0
Charvarius Ward	2	2	0	0
Juan Thornhill	4	0	0	0
Chris Jones	1	2	0	1
Derrick Nnadi	2	1	0	0
Michael Danna	1	2	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -13
Closing total: 51
DEN moneyline: +510
KC moneyline: -660

Chiefs closed -13, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 51; the game landed 38 — under by 13.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather: 41°F, wind 9 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: DEN 7 days · KC 7 days
Coaches: Vic Fangio vs Andy Reid

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.