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Denver Broncos 16 at Kansas City Chiefs 22. Final.
Chiefs -13 no coverU 51 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 13
Kansas City Chiefs 22, Broncos 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 3:54, 1st and 10, on Tim Patrick — 13.5 win-probability points to the Broncos on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 3:54 · 1st and 10
Tim Patrick
Broncos
(3:54) 3-D.Lock pass short left to 81-T.Patrick for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Chiefs closed -13, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Kansas City Chiefs 22–16. Biggest swing: Q3 3:54, Broncos +13.5% win probability on one snap.
13.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Melvin GordonBroncosQ2 9:12(9:12) (Shotgun) 25-M.Gordon up the middle pushed ob at KC 18 for 65 yards (22-J.Thornhill).
8.7pts
Travis KelceChiefsQ3 1:13(1:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 87-T.Kelce for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DEN-57-D.Walker, Defensive Offside, declined.
11.5pts
What separated them
Red zone
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Chiefs at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Chiefs won this one — 10 chunk plays, against Broncos at 4 chunk plays.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Chiefs won this one — no giveaways, against Broncos at 2 giveaways.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Broncos owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 13 on third down, against Chiefs at 3 of 10 on third down.
Broncosthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 20.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 36 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chiefshigher on Broncos159 of 169 plays carry both curves
(3:54) 3-D.Lock pass short left to 81-T.Patrick for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −13.5 for ChiefsExpected points −2.08 for ChiefsThe model had Broncos 23 points higher than the market did.play 112
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 3:54KC +13% win prob(3:54) 3-D.Lock pass short left to 81-T.Patrick for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 1:13KC +12% win prob(1:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep left to 87-T.Kelce for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DEN-57-D.Walker, Defensive Offside, declined.
2nd · 9:12KC +9% win prob(9:12) (Shotgun) 25-M.Gordon up the middle pushed ob at KC 18 for 65 yards (22-J.Thornhill).
3rd · 3:50KC +7% win prob(3:50) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 10-T.Hill ran ob at DEN 45 for 30 yards (21-A.Bouye).
2nd · 0:03DEN +7% win prob(:03) 7-H.Butker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
1st · 4:04KC +7% win prob(4:04) 8-B.McManus 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.
4th · 9:56
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Travis Kelce's 20-yard touchdown catch with 1:13 left in the 3rd put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
1st4:04Brandon McManus·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder S.Martin · snap J.Bobenmoyer+33–0
1st0:24Harrison Butker·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+33–3
3rd1:13Travis Kelce·20-yd TD catch20-yard touchdown catchfrom Patrick Mahomesfrom Patrick MahomesLead never changed again+716–19
4th1:09Harrison Butker·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+316–22
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Broncoscategory by categoryChiefs
Broncos3–6Chiefs
330Total yards448
5.3Yards per play7.2
40%Success rate50%
54%Third-down rate30%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
4Explosive plays10
18First downs24
0Sacks taken1
2Turnovers0
The read
Chiefs ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Broncos, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.09Broncos: +0.09 expected points added per play
+0.17Chiefs: +0.17 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.09Broncos: +0.09 expected points added per play
+0.19Chiefs: +0.19 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.10Broncos: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.12Chiefs: +0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 62 snaps at a 48% dropback rate against Chiefs’s 62 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 2, Chiefs 5.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.17 expected points added per play vs 0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37 pts to 31 pts
inside their normal wobble · −5.8 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.89× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Chiefs13.3%
right on their number · −2.3 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.42× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was DEN's sack or hit rate, 9.1% against a season mean of 14.9% — and DEN swings 6.5 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Denver Broncos
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
72Garett BollesT · Every snap100%66 snaps
66Dalton RisnerG · Every snap100%66 snaps
79Lloyd CushenberryC · Every snap100%66 snaps
3Drew LockQB · Every snap100%66 snaps
78Demar DotsonT · Every snap100%66 snaps
81Tim PatrickWR · Full-time89%59 snaps
87Noah FantTE · Full-time82%54 snaps
10Jerry JeudyWR · Heavy rotation74%49 snaps
13K.J. HamlerWR · Heavy rotation64%42 snaps
71Austin SchlottmannG · Heavy rotation64%42 snaps
25Melvin GordonRB · Heavy rotation53%35 snaps
88Nick VannettTE · Rotational45%30 snaps
30Phillip LindsayRB · Rotational39%26 snaps
61Graham GlasgowG · Rotational36%24 snaps
17DaeSean HamiltonWR · Situational18%12 snaps
83Andrew BeckTE · Situational15%10 snaps
84Troy FumagalliTE · Situational11%7 snaps
28Royce FreemanRB · Situational6%4 snaps
16Tyrie ClevelandWR · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Kevin ToliverCBMcTelvin AgimDTNetane MutiGMark BarronILBJeremy CoxRBTrey MarshallSS
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chiefs attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Chiefs→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Gordon up+16% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(9:12) (Shotgun) 25-M.Gordon up the middle pushed ob at KC 18 for 65 yards (22-J.Thornhill).
Q2 9:12 · Broncos · 3rd & 3 at DEN 17 · gained 65 · +4.91 EP · +15.6% win probability
157 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 169 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 169 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 90 yards from the DEN 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; KC attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
169 of 169 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
169
EPA per play
+0.11
Success rate
43%
Yards
777
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49+0.1769%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR36+0.3353%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.1645%
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7-0.1129%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.4180%
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.6620%
Chiefs2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
169 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
169 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter36 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.1 seconds
Intercepted6 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Chiefs 34
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 10 to the Chiefs 36
Broncos3Chiefs0
Field goal12 plays, from the Broncos 23 to the Chiefs 35
Broncos3Chiefs3
Field goal8 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Broncos 17
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter51 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 32 to the Broncos 40
Punt9 plays, from the Chiefs 21 to the Broncos 40
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxSix defenders
Broncos9Chiefs3
Broncos10Chiefs3
Touchdown10 plays, from the Broncos 10 to the Chiefs 1
Broncos10Chiefs6
Field goal8 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Broncos 1
No good14 plays, from the Broncos 35 to the Chiefs 39
Broncos10Chiefs9
Field goal5 plays, from the Chiefs 47 to the Broncos 5
3rd quarter39 plays
Broncos10Chiefs12
Field goal11 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Broncos 8
Broncos16Chiefs12
Touchdown15 plays, from the Broncos 28 to the Chiefs 10
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.6 seconds
Broncos16Chiefs18
Broncos16Chiefs19
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Broncos 20
The period ended4 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 33
4th quarter43 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Broncos 36 to the Broncos 39
Punt10 plays, from the Chiefs 26 to the Broncos 48
Punt9 plays, from the Broncos 8 to the Broncos 49
Broncos16Chiefs22
Field goal13 plays, from the Chiefs 15 to the Broncos 25
Intercepted5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 30
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -13
Closing total
51
Broncos moneyline
+510
Chiefs moneyline
-660
Chiefs closed -13, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 51; the game landed 38 — under by 13.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Arrowhead Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Cold, 40°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the north-west; mainly clear.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Broncos 7 days · Chiefs 7 days
Coaches
Vic Fangio vs Andy Reid
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
DEN +6% win prob
(9:56) 5-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to DEN 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 13-K.Hamler. PENALTY on DEN-20-D.Dawson, Unnecessary Roughness, 7 yards, enforced at DEN 15.
3rd · 8:58KC +6% win prob(8:58) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass short right to 13-K.Hamler to DEN 39 for 8 yards (22-J.Thornhill).
