2020 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 6, 2020 · Soldier Field

Detroit LionsWinner

Chicago Bears

CHI -3 upsetO 44 ✓Bears closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Detroit Lions 34–30. Biggest swing: Q4 1:54, DET +43% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:54DET — CHI CHI ball · 3rd & 4CHI 85%

(1:54) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky sacked at CHI 9 for -8 yards (95-R.Okwara). FUMBLES (95-R.Okwara), RECOVERED by DET-91-J.Penisini at CHI 7.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:54DET +43% win prob(1:54) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky sacked at CHI 9 for -8 yards (95-R.Okwara). FUMBLES (95-R.Okwara), RECOVERED by DET-91-J.Penisini at CHI 7.
Q4 · 0:16DET +36% win prob(:16) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery left guard to DET 20 for no gain (92-K.Strong; 59-R.Ragland). Official Measurement The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Q4 · 1:42CHI +13% win prob(1:42) 28-A.Peterson left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 2:33CHI +12% win prob(2:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 87-Q.Cephus for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Lions	Bears
Offensive plays	65	67
Total yards	461 (edge)	389
Yards per play	7.1 (edge)	5.8
Expected points added / play	0.23 (edge)	0.09
Success rate	43%	49% (edge)
Dropback rate	68%	55%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.39 (edge)	0.17
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.13	-0.00 (edge)
Third downs	6/11 (edge)	4/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	9 (edge)	7
First downs gained on snaps	23	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	1	1

Lions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs 0.09.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · DET

Matthew StaffordQB

27/42, 402 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

17.4 expected points added · +4.1% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Mitchell TrubiskyQB

26/34, 267 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

6.5 expected points added · +5.8% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

David MontgomeryRB

17 att, 72 yds, 2 TD

-1.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CHI

Cordarrelle PattersonRB

10 att, 59 yds, 1 TD

2.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DET

Marvin JonesWR

8/12 for 116 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 7.4 expected points added

Receiving · DET

T.J. HockensonTE

7/9 for 84 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CHI	CHI 46	7	27	2:23	Turnover on downs
2	DET	DET 20	8	51	3:08	Turnover on downs
3	CHI	CHI 29	7	66	3:16	Touchdown
4	DET	DET 28	14	72	5:58	Touchdown
5	CHI	CHI 25	12	70	5:05	Touchdown
6	DET	DET 31	7	7	2:04	Punt
7	CHI	CHI 12	8	27	3:46	Punt
8	DET	DET 28	5	77	1:58	Touchdown
9	CHI	CHI 32	8	63	1:46	Touchdown
10	DET	DET 31	6	27	0:36	End of half
11	DET	DET 19	7	21	3:29	Punt
12	CHI	CHI 20	6	19	2:29	Punt
13	DET	DET 34	11	66	5:07	Touchdown
14	CHI	CHI 28	14	67	7:32	Touchdown
15	DET	DET 25	6	32	2:01	Interception
16	CHI	DET 46	4	16	2:00	Punt
17	DET	DET 8	4	5	0:44	Punt
18	CHI	CHI 45	4	-2	2:05	Punt
19	DET	DET 4	8	96	2:15	Touchdown
20	CHI	CHI 11	4	-4	0:30	Fumble
21	DET	CHI 7	3	7	0:11	Touchdown
22	CHI	CHI 25	8	40	1:26	Turnover on downs
23	DET	DET 20	1	0	0:11	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Lions gained 96 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	27/42	402	3	1	2	17.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Adrian Peterson	16	57	3.6	2	1.2
Kerryon Johnson	3	3	1.0	0	-1.5
Matthew Stafford	2	0	0.0	0	1.7
Jamal Agnew	1	0	0.0	0	-4.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Marvin Jones	8	12	116	1	29%	7.4
T.J. Hockenson	7	9	84	0	22%	4.6
Quintez Cephus	2	4	63	1	10%	4.0
Danny Amendola	3	5	62	0	12%	4.3
Mohamed Sanu	2	2	36	0	5%	3.2
Jamal Agnew	2	2	24	0	5%	1.9
Jesse James	1	3	9	1	7%	-3.8
Kerryon Johnson	2	3	8	0	7%	-0.8
Adrian Peterson	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jamie Collins	3	6	0.0	0
Jayron Kearse	6	2	0.0	1
Jahlani Tavai	3	2	0.0	0
Amani Oruwariye	5	0	0.0	0
Justin Coleman	4	1	0.0	0
Romeo Okwara	4	0	1.0	0
Reggie Ragland	2	2	0.0	0
Tracy Walker III	3	1	0.0	0
Darryl Roberts	4	0	0.0	0
John Penisini	1	2	0.0	0

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mitchell Trubisky	26/34	267	1	0	2	6.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
David Montgomery	17	72	4.2	2	-1.9
Cordarrelle Patterson	10	59	5.9	1	2.4
Mitchell Trubisky	3	6	2.0	0	-0.4
Anthony Miller	1	3	3.0	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Allen Robinson	6	7	75	0	21%	4.8
Anthony Miller	5	5	56	0	15%	3.2
Darnell Mooney	4	6	43	0	18%	2.5
David Montgomery	4	4	39	0	12%	2.4
Cole Kmet	5	7	37	1	21%	1.8
Javon Wims	1	1	13	0	3%	0.9
Cordarrelle Patterson	1	2	4	0	6%	-1.0
Jimmy Graham	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Roquan Smith	7	2	0.0	0	0
Kyle Fuller	6	0	0.0	0	0
Buster Skrine	5	1	0.0	0	0
DeAndre Houston-Carson	4	1	0.0	0	0
Danny Trevathan	3	2	0.0	0	0
Bilal Nichols	2	2	1.0	1	1
Jaylon Johnson	3	1	0.0	0	1
Brent Urban	1	2	0.0	0	0
Tashaun Gipson	2	1	0.0	0	1
J.P. Holtz	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CHI -3
Closing total: 44
DET moneyline: +145
CHI moneyline: -161

Bears closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 44; the game landed 64 — over by 20.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Soldier Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 35°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: DET 10 days · CHI 7 days
Coaches: Darrell Bevell vs Matt Nagy

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.