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Detroit Lions 34, Bears 30 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 1:54, 3rd and 4, on Mitchell Trubisky — 43.1 win-probability points to the Lions on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 1:54 · 3rd and 4
Mitchell Trubisky
Lions
(1:54) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky sacked at CHI 9 for -8 yards (95-R.Okwara). FUMBLES (95-R.Okwara), RECOVERED by DET-91-J.Penisini at CHI 7.
Bears closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Detroit Lions 34–30. Biggest swing: Q4 1:54, Lions +43.1% win probability on one snap.
43.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Adrian PetersonLionsQ4 1:42(1:42) 28-A.Peterson left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12.5pts
David MontgomeryLionsQ4 0:16(:16) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery left guard to DET 20 for no gain (92-K.Strong; 59-R.Ragland). Official Measurement The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
36.0pts
What separated them
Third down
Lions won this one — 6 of 11 on third down, against Bears at 4 of 11 on third down.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Bears owned this one and still lost it — 49% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Lions at 43% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Bearsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Lions won this one — 9 chunk plays, against Bears at 7 chunk plays.
Lionsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Lions won this one — +0.39 expected points per dropback, against Bears at +0.17 expected points per dropback.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Lions175 of 186 plays carry both curves
(1:54) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky sacked at CHI 9 for -8 yards (95-R.Okwara). FUMBLES (95-R.Okwara), RECOVERED by DET-91-J.Penisini at CHI 7.
Swing −43.1 for BearsExpected points −4.91 for BearsModel and market agree here.play 172
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:54DET +43% win prob(1:54) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky sacked at CHI 9 for -8 yards (95-R.Okwara). FUMBLES (95-R.Okwara), RECOVERED by DET-91-J.Penisini at CHI 7.
4th · 0:16DET +36% win prob(:16) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery left guard to DET 20 for no gain (92-K.Strong; 59-R.Ragland). Official Measurement The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
4th · 1:42CHI +13% win prob(1:42) 28-A.Peterson left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 2:33CHI +12% win prob(2:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 87-Q.Cephus for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:37CHI +11% win prob(1:37) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 32-D.Montgomery to CHI 41 for 16 yards (42-J.Kearse). PENALTY on DET-42-J.Kearse, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 41.
4th · 1:06CHI +11% win prob(1:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short middle to 32-D.Montgomery to DET 29 for 14 yards (58-J.Collins).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Adrian Peterson's 5-yard rushing touchdown with 1:42 left in the 4th put Detroit Lions ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st12:42Cairo Santos·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+30–3
1st6:21David Montgomery·13-yd TD run13-yard rushing touchdownkick blocked by R.Okwara+60–9
1st0:19Adrian Peterson·3-yd TD run3-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, hit right upright+66–9
4th2:24Marvin Jones·25-yd TD catch25-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+727–30
4th1:42Adrian Peterson·5-yd TD run5-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+734–30
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Lionscategory by categoryBears
Lions4–3Bears
461Total yards389
7.1Yards per play5.8
43%Success rate49%
55%Third-down rate36%
3Red-zone touchdowns4
9Explosive plays7
23First downs24
2Sacks taken2
1Turnovers1
The read
Lions ahead 4–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — third-down rate.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.39 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.23Lions: +0.23 expected points added per play
+0.09Bears: +0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.39Lions: +0.39 expected points added per play
+0.17Bears: +0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.13Lions: −0.13 expected points added per play
−0.00Bears: −0.00 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Lions ran 65 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Bears’s 67 at 55%. Red-zone trips: Lions 5, Bears 5.
NoteLions won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.23 expected points added per play vs 0.09.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · −1.6 vs their 9.7%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Bears6.8%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.5 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (−1.06× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDET's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 34.7 points above their season mean of 31.9% and 1.2 times their own 30.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Detroit Lions
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 1 never used
76Oday AboushiG · Every snap100%68 snaps
77Frank RagnowC · Every snap100%68 snaps
73Jonah JacksonG · Every snap100%68 snaps
68Taylor DeckerT · Every snap100%68 snaps
9Matthew StaffordQB · Every snap100%68 snaps
11Marvin JonesWR · Full-time94%64 snaps
88T.J. HockensonTE · Heavy rotation78%53 snaps
67Matt NelsonT · Heavy rotation72%49 snaps
12Mohamed SanuWR · Heavy rotation59%40 snaps
80Danny AmendolaWR · Rotational49%33 snaps
28Adrian PetersonRB · Rotational47%32 snaps
87Quintez CephusWR · Rotational46%31 snaps
33Kerryon JohnsonRB · Rotational44%30 snaps
83Jesse JamesTE · Rotational35%24 snaps
65Tyrell CrosbyT · Rotational28%19 snaps
39Jamal AgnewWR · Situational24%16 snaps
45Jason CabindaMLB · Situational9%6 snaps
41Jonathan WilliamsRB · Situational9%6 snaps
86Hunter BryantTE · Situational7%5 snaps
Inactive · 6
Jeff OkudahCBAustin BryantDEDa'Shawn HandDEDavid BloughQBD'Andre SwiftRBKenny GolladayWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Lions attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Lions←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Trubisky sacked−47% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(1:54) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky sacked at CHI 9 for -8 yards (95-R.Okwara). FUMBLES (95-R.Okwara), RECOVERED by DET-91-J.Penisini at CHI 7.
Q4 1:54 · Bears · 3rd & 4 at CHI 17 · lost 10 · -4.91 EP · −46.7% win probability
173 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 186 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 186 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
10 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 96 yards from the DET 4 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, DET attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
186 of 186 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
186
EPA per play
+0.12
Success rate
45%
Yards
849
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49+0.3876%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.0265%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.3150%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR10-0.3760%
Bears0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR6-0.0550%
Bears0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR6+0.6217%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Bears0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR2——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
186 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
186 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Lions0Bears3
Field goal7 plays, from the Bears 46 to the Lions 26
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Bears 29
Lions0Bears9
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bears 29 to the Lions 13
Lions6Bears9
Touchdown15 plays, from the Lions 28 to the Bears 3
The period ended4 plays
2nd quarter55 plays
Lions6Bears15
Lions6Bears16
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bears 29 to the Lions 5
Punt8 plays, from the Lions 31 to the Lions 43
Punt8 plays, from the Bears 12 to the Bears 39
Lions12Bears16
Lions13Bears16
Touchdown7 plays, from the Lions 28 to the Bears 49
Lions13Bears22
Lions13Bears23
Touchdown11 plays, from the Bears 32 to the Lions 4
The period ended11 plays, from the Lions 31 to the Bears 47
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Lions 19 to the Lions 42
Punt7 plays, from the Bears 20 to the Bears 34
Lions19Bears23
Lions20Bears23
Touchdown11 plays, from the Lions 34 to the Bears 9
The period ended8 plays, from the Bears 28 to the Lions 48
4th quarter55 plays
Lions20Bears29
Lions20Bears30
Touchdown8 plays, from the Lions 49 to the Lions 11
Intercepted6 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Bears 43
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 46 to the Lions 37
Punt4 plays, from the Lions 8 to the Lions 13
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 45 to the Lions 49
Lions26Bears30
Lions27Bears30
Touchdown8 plays, from the Lions 4 to the Bears 25
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Bears 11 to the Bears 17
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Lions33Bears30
Lions34Bears30
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bears 7 to the Bears 5
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Lions 20
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bears -3
Closing total
44
Lions moneyline
+145
Bears moneyline
-161
Bears closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 44; the game landed 64 — over by 20.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Soldier Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 35°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 6 mph out of the south-east; overcast.
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
Lions 10 days · Bears 7 days
Coaches
Darrell Bevell vs Matt Nagy
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
4th · 0:26DET +10% win prob(:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass incomplete deep right to 11-D.Mooney.
4th · 9:29DET +9% win prob(9:29) 9-M.Stafford pass short right intended for 83-J.James INTERCEPTED by 98-B.Nichols at CHI 47. 98-B.Nichols to DET 46 for 7 yards (67-M.Nelson).
