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2020 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 6, 2020 · NRG Stadium
26
20
Indianapolis Colts 26–20. Biggest swing: Q4 1:28, IND +36% win probability on one snap.
The game in one curve — scrub to replay it
(1:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson FUMBLES (Aborted) at IND 7, touched at IND 7, RECOVERED by IND-54-A.Walker at IND 9.
Down-to-down truth
| Metric | Colts | Texans |
|---|---|---|
| Offensive plays | 64 | 62 |
| Total yards | 374 | 398 (edge) |
| Yards per play | 5.8 | 6.4 (edge) |
| Expected points added / play | 0.09 (edge) | -0.02 |
| Success rate | 50% (edge) | 42% |
| Dropback rate | 59% | 77% |
| Dropback efficiency (EPA/play) | 0.26 (edge) | 0.06 |
| Rush efficiency (EPA/play) | -0.16 (edge) | -0.32 |
| Third downs | 3/11 | 5/13 (edge) |
| Red-zone trips → TDs | 0 → 0 | 0 → 0 |
| Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass) | 7 | 7 |
| First downs gained on snaps | 23 (edge) | 19 |
| Sacks taken | 3 (edge) | 5 |
| Turnovers | 0 (edge) | 2 |
Texans outgained Colts 398–374 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.
Who moved the needle
Passing · HOU
26/38, 341 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
1.1 expected points added · +3.8% completion over expected
Passing · IND
27/35, 285 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
10.0 expected points added · +3.8% completion over expected
Possession by possession
| # | Team | Start | Plays | Scrim yds | Clock | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HOU | HOU 22 | 5 | 2 | 1:40 | Punt | |
| 2 | IND | IND 33 | 7 | 72 | 3:28 | Touchdown | |
| 3 | HOU | HOU 25 | 6 | 75 | 2:01 | Touchdown | |
| 4 | IND | IND 25 | 5 | -4 | 1:30 | Punt | |
| 5 | HOU | HOU 40 | 6 | 21 | 1:48 | Turnover on downs | |
| 6 | IND | IND 28 | 10 | 57 | 3:52 | Touchdown | |
| 7 | HOU | HOU 26 | 8 | 40 | 3:09 | Turnover on downs | |
| 8 | IND | IND 43 | 7 | 57 | 3:15 | Touchdown | |
| 9 | HOU | HOU 25 | 11 | 70 | 4:38 | Touchdown | |
| 10 | IND | IND 21 | 11 | 55 | 3:27 | Turnover on downs | |
| 11 | HOU | HOU 26 | 9 | 58 | 1:07 | Turnover on downs | |
| 12 | IND | IND 25 | 2 | 0 | 0:05 | End of half | |
| 13 | IND | IND 19 | 9 | 38 | 4:52 | Punt | |
| 14 | HOU | HOU 5 | 5 | 14 | 1:55 | Punt | |
| 15 | IND | IND 30 | 6 | 0 | 2:20 | Punt | |
| 16 | HOU | HOU 28 | 8 | 30 | 4:59 | Interception | |
| 17 | IND | IND 34 | 4 | 2 | 1:39 | Punt | |
| 18 | HOU | HOU 24 | 6 | 15 | 3:08 | Punt | |
| 19 | IND | IND 32 | 10 | 63 | 4:22 | Turnover on downs | |
| 20 | HOU | HOU 5 | 3 | -5 | 0:43 | Turnover on downs | |
| 21 | IND | IND 25 | 9 | 34 | 3:19 | Punt | |
| 22 | HOU | HOU 20 | 8 | 78 | 1:20 | Fumble | |
| 23 | IND | IND 9 | 2 | 0 | 1:23 | End of game |
0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 78 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a fumble.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 27/35 | 285 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 10.0 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Taylor | 13 | 91 | 7.0 | 0 | 4.2 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 5 | 12 | 2.4 | 0 | -1.7 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 1 | -4.5 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0.5 |
| Philip Rivers | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 | 0.0 |
| DeMichael Harris | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 | -2.7 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Y. Hilton | 8 | 11 | 110 | 1 | 31% | 9.4 |
| Michael Pittman | 5 | 5 | 46 | 0 | 14% | 3.3 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 3 | 3 | 44 | 1 | 9% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Walker | 7 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kenny Moore | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Shaquille Leonard | 4 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Julian Blackmon |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 26/38 | 341 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1.1 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 10 | 44 | 4.4 | 1 |
Closing number vs result
Colts closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 6.
Total closed 50; the game landed 46 — under by 4.0.
Conditions and crew
Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
| 5.4 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 | 14% | 0.1 |
| Nyheim Miller-Hines | 3 | 3 | 22 | 0 | 9% | -0.2 |
| Jack Doyle | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 3% | 0.9 |
| Trey Burton | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 | 9% | -1.0 |
| Zach Pascal | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 | 3% | 0.7 |
| Jordan Wilkins | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 6% | -2.2 |
| Ashton Dulin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.6 |
| 3 |
| 1 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Justin Houston | 4 | 0 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tavon Wilson | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| DeForest Buckner | 4 | 0 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Grover Stewart | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rock Ya-Sin | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Xavier Rhodes | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| -0.6 |
| Deshaun Watson | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 1 | -1.7 |
| Duke Johnson | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 | -0.3 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keke Coutee | 8 | 9 | 141 | 0 | 24% | 8.8 |
| Chad Hansen | 5 | 7 | 101 | 0 | 19% | 6.3 |
| Brandin Cooks | 5 | 8 | 65 | 0 | 22% | -2.4 |
| Duke Johnson | 6 | 6 | 24 | 0 | 16% | 0.6 |
| Jordan Akins | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 | 8% | -1.6 |
| David Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5% | -1.4 |
| Kahale Warring | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.3 |
| Darren Fells | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3% | -0.6 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyrell Adams | 4 | 8 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Cunningham | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lonnie Johnson | 6 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Phillip Gaines | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Justin Reid | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| J.J. Watt | 5 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vernon Hargreaves | 4 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Moore | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Eric Murray | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Charles Omenihu | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 2 |
