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DYNATYZE
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DYNATYZE
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1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 10.7 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Texans.
MarketModelmodel higher on Texanshigher on Colts165 of 178 plays carry both curves
(1:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson FUMBLES (Aborted) at IND 7, touched at IND 7, RECOVERED by IND-54-A.Walker at IND 9.
Swing −35.8 for TexansExpected points −5.13 for TexansThe model had Texans 13 points higher than the market did.play 175
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:28IND +36% win prob(1:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson FUMBLES (Aborted) at IND 7, touched at IND 7, RECOVERED by IND-54-A.Walker at IND 9.
2nd · 9:24HOU +14% win prob(9:24) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 28-J.Taylor for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:32HOU +11% win prob(1:32) (Shotgun) 25-Du.Johnson up the middle to IND 2 for 4 yards (54-A.Walker).
1st · 8:42HOU +10% win prob(8:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 16-K.Coutee to IND 11 for 64 yards (31-T.Wilson).
4th · 12:02IND +10% win prob(12:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson sacked at HOU 37 for -9 yards (50-J.Houston). FUMBLES (50-J.Houston) [50-J.Houston], recovered by HOU-64-S.Kelemete at HOU 29.
4th · 6:50IND +9% win prob(6:50) (Shotgun) 21-N.Hines up the middle to HOU 5 for no gain (41-Z.Cunningham; 50-T.Adams).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Nyheim Miller-Hines's 5-yard rushing touchdown with 0:46 left in the 1st put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:59T.Y. Hilton·21-yd TD catch21-yard touchdown catchfrom Philip Riversfrom Philip Rivers+77–0
2nd1:15Rodrigo Blankenship·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder R.Allen · snap L.Rhodes+324–17
2nd0:08Ka'imi Fairbairn·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder B.Anger · snap J.Weeks+324–20
4th6:08Justin Houston·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+226–20
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Coltscategory by categoryTexans
Colts4–4Texans
374Total yards398
5.8Yards per play6.4
50%Success rate42%
27%Third-down rate38%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
7Explosive plays7
23First downs19
3Sacks taken5
0Turnovers2
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Colts, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.09Colts: +0.09 expected points added per play
−0.02Texans: −0.02 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.26Colts: +0.26 expected points added per play
+0.06Texans: +0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.16Colts: −0.16 expected points added per play
−0.32Texans: −0.32 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 64 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against Texans’s 62 at 77%. Red-zone trips: Colts 5, Texans 4.
NoteTexans outgained Colts 398-374 but lost the turnover battle 2-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 23 pts
inside their normal wobble · +4.3 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (+0.70× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Texans13.2%
right on their number · −0.7 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.11× that swing) · 38 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNothing either side did tonight left its own normal range. The widest departure was IND's pass rate over expected, 2.6 pts against a season mean of -4.2 pts — and IND swings 7.4 points week to week, so that is a Sunday, not a plan.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Indianapolis Colts
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
72Braden SmithG · Every snap100%69 snaps
64Mark GlowinskiG · Every snap100%69 snaps
56Quenton NelsonG · Every snap100%69 snaps
78Ryan KellyC · Every snap100%69 snaps
17Philip RiversQB · Full-time96%66 snaps
75Chaz GreenT · Full-time93%64 snaps
11Michael PittmanWR · Full-time84%58 snaps
14Zach PascalWR · Full-time80%55 snaps
81Mo Alie-CoxTE · Heavy rotation64%44 snaps
13T.Y. HiltonWR · Heavy rotation62%43 snaps
84Jack DoyleTE · Heavy rotation55%38 snaps
28Jonathan TaylorRB · Rotational48%33 snaps
80Trey BurtonTE · Rotational36%25 snaps
21Nyheim HinesRB · Rotational33%23 snaps
20Jordan WilkinsRB · Situational19%13 snaps
16Ashton DulinWR · Situational12%8 snaps
62Le'Raven ClarkT · Situational7%5 snaps
12DeMichael HarrisWR · Situational6%4 snaps
7Jacoby BrissettQB · Situational4%3 snaps
83Marcus JohnsonWR · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Ben BanoguDEBobby OkerekeMLBRigoberto SanchezPJacob EasonQBKhari WillisSSAnthony CastonzoTDezmon PatmonWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Texans attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Texans→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Watson FUMBLES−48% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson FUMBLES (Aborted) at IND 7, touched at IND 7, RECOVERED by IND-54-A.Walker at IND 9.
Q4 1:28 · Texans · 2nd & goal at IND 2 · gained nothing · -5.13 EP · −48.0% win probability
163 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 78 yards from the HOU 20 for a turnover. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; HOU attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
+0.00
Success rate
43%
Yards
769
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR39+0.2577%
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.1284%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20-0.0020%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR18-0.3644%
Texans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.0957%
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-0.7880%
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter46 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 22 to the Texans 24
Colts6Texans0
Colts7Texans0
Touchdown8 plays, from the Colts 33 to the Texans 21
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.8 seconds
Colts7Texans6
Colts7Texans7
Touchdown6 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Colts 11
Punt5 plays
Colts7Texans10
Field goal7 plays, from the Texans 40 to the Colts 34
Colts13Texans10
Colts14Texans10
Touchdown11 plays, from the Colts 28 to the Texans 5
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter51 plays
No good6 plays, from the Texans 40 to the Colts 34
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runWheelCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Colts20Texans10
Colts21Texans10
Touchdown9 plays, from the Colts 43 to the Texans 36
Colts21Texans16
Colts21Texans17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Colts 6
Colts24Texans17
Field goal12 plays, from the Colts 21 to the Texans 24
Colts24Texans20
Field goal10 plays, from the Texans 26 to the Colts 16
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter31 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Colts 19 to the Texans 43
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 5 to the Texans 19
Punt6 plays, from the Colts 30 to the Colts 40
Intercepted8 plays, from the Texans 28 to the Colts 42
The period ended3 plays, from the Colts 34 to the Colts 39
4th quarter50 plays
Punt2 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFive
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 24 to the Texans 46
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Colts 32 to the Texans 5
Colts26Texans20
Punt15 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Texans 49
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.1 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Colts 2
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Colts -3.5
Closing total
50
Colts moneyline
-176
Texans moneyline
+157
Colts closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 6.
Total closed 50; the game landed 46 — under by 4.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
NRG Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · grass
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Scott Novak
Rest
Colts 7 days · Texans 10 days
Coaches
Frank Reich vs Romeo Crennel
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
1st · 7:56
HOU +9% win prob
(7:56) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson right end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 1:02IND +8% win prob(1:02) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short middle intended for 13-B.Cooks INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Moore at IND 34. 23-K.Moore to IND 34 for no gain (13-B.Cooks). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
Coltscategory by categoryTexans
Colts6
Texans0
