2020 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 6, 2020 · NRG Stadium

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

Houston Texans

IND -3.5 ✓U 50 ✓DomeColts closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 6.

Indianapolis Colts 26–20. Biggest swing: Q4 1:28, IND +36% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:28IND — HOU HOU ball · 2nd & 2IND 62%

(1:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson FUMBLES (Aborted) at IND 7, touched at IND 7, RECOVERED by IND-54-A.Walker at IND 9.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:28IND +36% win prob(1:28) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson FUMBLES (Aborted) at IND 7, touched at IND 7, RECOVERED by IND-54-A.Walker at IND 9.
Q2 · 9:24HOU +14% win prob(9:24) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 28-J.Taylor for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 1:32HOU +11% win prob(1:32) (Shotgun) 25-Du.Johnson up the middle to IND 2 for 4 yards (54-A.Walker).
Q1 · 8:42HOU +10% win prob(8:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep right to 16-K.Coutee to IND 11 for 64 yards (31-T.Wilson).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Colts	Texans
Offensive plays	64	62
Total yards	374	398 (edge)
Yards per play	5.8	6.4 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.09 (edge)	-0.02
Success rate	50% (edge)	42%
Dropback rate	59%	77%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.26 (edge)	0.06
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.16 (edge)	-0.32
Third downs	3/11	5/13 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7	7
First downs gained on snaps	23 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	5
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Texans outgained Colts 398–374 but lost the turnover battle 2–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

26/38, 341 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

1.1 expected points added · +3.8% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Philip RiversQB

27/35, 285 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

10.0 expected points added · +3.8% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

13 att, 91 yds, 0 TD

4.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

David JohnsonRB

10 att, 44 yds, 1 TD

-0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · HOU

Keke CouteeWR

8/9 for 141 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 8.8 expected points added

Receiving · IND

T.Y. HiltonWR

8/11 for 110 yds, 1 TD

31% of team targets · 9.4 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 22	5	2	1:40	Punt
2	IND	IND 33	7	72	3:28	Touchdown
3	HOU	HOU 25	6	75	2:01	Touchdown
4	IND	IND 25	5	-4	1:30	Punt
5	HOU	HOU 40	6	21	1:48	Turnover on downs
6	IND	IND 28	10	57	3:52	Touchdown
7	HOU	HOU 26	8	40	3:09	Turnover on downs
8	IND	IND 43	7	57	3:15	Touchdown
9	HOU	HOU 25	11	70	4:38	Touchdown
10	IND	IND 21	11	55	3:27	Turnover on downs
11	HOU	HOU 26	9	58	1:07	Turnover on downs
12	IND	IND 25	2	0	0:05	End of half
13	IND	IND 19	9	38	4:52	Punt
14	HOU	HOU 5	5	14	1:55	Punt
15	IND	IND 30	6	0	2:20	Punt
16	HOU	HOU 28	8	30	4:59	Interception
17	IND	IND 34	4	2	1:39	Punt
18	HOU	HOU 24	6	15	3:08	Punt
19	IND	IND 32	10	63	4:22	Turnover on downs
20	HOU	HOU 5	3	-5	0:43	Turnover on downs
21	IND	IND 25	9	34	3:19	Punt
22	HOU	HOU 20	8	78	1:20	Fumble
23	IND	IND 9	2	0	1:23	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 78 scrimmage yards over 8 plays for a fumble.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Philip Rivers	27/35	285	2	0	3	10.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	13	91	7.0	0	4.2
Jordan Wilkins	5	12	2.4	0	-1.7
Nyheim Miller-Hines	6	10	1.7	1	-4.5
Jacoby Brissett	2	1	0.5	0	0.5
Philip Rivers	2	-2	-1.0	0	0.0
DeMichael Harris	1	-3	-3.0	0	-2.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
T.Y. Hilton	8	11	110	1	31%	9.4
Michael Pittman	5	5	46	0	14%	3.3
Jonathan Taylor	3	3	44	1	9%	5.4
Mo Alie-Cox	3	5	23	0	14%	0.1
Nyheim Miller-Hines	3	3	22	0	9%	-0.2
Jack Doyle	1	1	12	0	3%	0.9
Trey Burton	1	3	11	0	9%	-1.0
Zach Pascal	1	1	11	0	3%	0.7
Jordan Wilkins	2	2	6	0	6%	-2.2
Ashton Dulin	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Anthony Walker	7	4	0.0	0	1
Kenny Moore	6	2	0.0	1	3
Shaquille Leonard	4	2	0.0	0	1
Julian Blackmon	3	1	0.0	0	0
Justin Houston	4	0	3.0	0	0
Tavon Wilson	3	1	0.0	0	0
DeForest Buckner	4	0	2.0	0	0
Grover Stewart	3	0	0.0	0	0
Rock Ya-Sin	3	0	0.0	0	0
Xavier Rhodes	2	1	0.0	0	1

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	26/38	341	0	1	5	1.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
David Johnson	10	44	4.4	1	-0.6
Deshaun Watson	7	38	5.4	1	-1.7
Duke Johnson	2	8	4.0	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Keke Coutee	8	9	141	24%	8.8
Chad Hansen	5	7	101	19%	6.3
Brandin Cooks	5	8	65	22%	-2.4
Duke Johnson	6	6	24	16%	0.6
Jordan Akins	2	3	10	8%	-1.6
David Johnson	0	2	0	5%	-1.4
Kahale Warring	0	1	0	3%	-0.3
Darren Fells	0	1	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Tyrell Adams	4	8	0.0	0
Zach Cunningham	5	4	0.0	0
Lonnie Johnson	6	2	0.0	0
Phillip Gaines	5	1	0.0	1
Justin Reid	5	1	0.0	0
J.J. Watt	5	1	1.0	0
Vernon Hargreaves	4	1	0.0	0
A.J. Moore	2	2	1.0	0
Eric Murray	1	2	0.0	0
Charles Omenihu	1	1	0.0	2

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: IND -3.5
Closing total: 50
IND moneyline: -176
HOU moneyline: +157

Colts closed -3.5 and covered, winning by 6.

Total closed 50; the game landed 46 — under by 4.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: NRG Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Scott Novak
Rest: IND 7 days · HOU 10 days
Coaches: Frank Reich vs Romeo Crennel

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.