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Game Center
polling · 300s tick · as of 3:19 AM ET · 15 to play · 1 final
2020 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 6, 2020 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
JaguarsJacksonville24
BY 3final margin
VikingsMinnesota27
Jacksonville Jaguars 24 at Minnesota Vikings 27. Final.
Vikings -10.5 no cover51 push
The verdict · 2020 Week 13
Minnesota Vikings 27, Jaguars 24 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:18, 4th and 1, on Dan Bailey — 30.0 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
Dome
Vikings closed -10.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Minnesota Vikings 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:18, Jaguars +30.0% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:18 · 4th and 1
Dan Bailey
Jaguars
(:18) 5-D.Bailey 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.
30.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Joe SchobertJaguarsQ3 15:00(15:00) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 33-D.Cook INTERCEPTED by 47-J.Schobert at MIN 43. 47-J.Schobert for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
25.2pts
Unnamed on the sheetVikingsOT 8:16(8:16) 2-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to JAX 28, Center-42-A.DePaola. 84-K.Cole Sr. to JAX 29 for 1 yard (85-D.Chisena). PENALTY on JAX-40-B.Watson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 28.
21.5pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Vikings won this one — 2 giveaways, against Jaguars at 5 giveaways.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Jaguars owned this one and still lost it — +0.03 expected points per carry, against Vikings at -0.23 expected points per carry.
Jaguarsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Vikings won this one — 7 of 16 on third down, against Jaguars at 4 of 13 on third down.
Vikingsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Vikings won this one — 3 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Jaguars at 1 touchdown on 3 trips.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 16.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 36 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Jaguars204 of 221 plays carry both curves
(:18) 5-D.Bailey 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.
Swing −30.0 for VikingsExpected points −2.38 for VikingsThe model had Jaguars 8 points higher than the market did.play 191
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:18JAX +30% win prob(:18) 5-D.Bailey 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.
3rd · 15:00JAX +25% win prob(15:00) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 33-D.Cook INTERCEPTED by 47-J.Schobert at MIN 43. 47-J.Schobert for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Overtime · 8:16MIN +21% win prob(8:16) 2-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to JAX 28, Center-42-A.DePaola. 84-K.Cole Sr. to JAX 29 for 1 yard (85-D.Chisena). PENALTY on JAX-40-B.Watson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 28.
Overtime · 9:56JAX +17% win prob(9:56) 8-K.Cousins sacked at MIN 15 for -9 yards (94-D.Smoot).
1st · 3:08MIN +15% win prob(3:08) 2-B.Colquitt punts 49 yards to JAX 21, Center-42-A.DePaola. 84-K.Cole Sr. to JAX 25 for 4 yards (57-R.Connelly). PENALTY on JAX-43-J.Giles-Harris, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 21.
4th · 0:01JAX +15% win prob(:01) 3-C.McLaughlin 62 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dan Bailey's 23-yard field goal with 1:53 left in overtime put Minnesota Vikings ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st12:39Laviska Shenault Jr.·28-yd TD catch28-yard touchdown catchfrom Mike Glennonfrom Mike Glennon · kick no good, wide right+66–0
1st6:07Chase McLaughlin·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+39–0
Overtime1:53Dan Bailey·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder B.Colquitt · snap A.DePaolaLead never changed again+324–27
10 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jaguarscategory by categoryVikings
Jaguars3–5Vikings
392Total yards420
5.7Yards per play4.9
48%Success rate45%
31%Third-down rate44%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
8Explosive plays8
21First downs27
2Sacks taken4
5Turnovers2
The read
Vikings ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.09Jaguars: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.12Vikings: −0.12 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.15Jaguars: −0.15 expected points added per play
−0.03Vikings: −0.03 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.03Jaguars: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.23Vikings: −0.23 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jaguars ran 69 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Vikings’s 85 at 56%. Red-zone trips: Jaguars 3, Vikings 6.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Too few to read
2 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
high through week 13Against their seasonTendencies
JAX's sack or hit rate, 29.2%, is past their previous high of 20.8% in week 3 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
2.2 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.1-swing turn from week 12.
48 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points. · +2.2σ from their own normal
low through week 13Against their seasonFourth Down
MIN's fourth-and-short go rate, 0.0%, is past their previous low of 25.0% in week 9 — the lowest of their 6 charted games through week 13.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 24.1 points. · −1.8σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -21 pts to 14 pts
off script — got home · +16.0 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+2.18× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Vikings10.6%
right on their number · −0.6 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.08× that swing) · 47 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteJAX's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 29.2%, 16.0 points above their season mean of 13.2% and 2.2 times their own 7.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Jaguars attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jaguars←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
K.Cousins pass−25% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(15:00) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 33-D.Cook INTERCEPTED by 47-J.Schobert at MIN 43. 47-J.Schobert for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 15:00 · Vikings · 1st & 10 at MIN 40 · gained nothing · -9.67 EP · −24.9% win probability
202 snaps placed · 19 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 221 plays across 30 drives, personnel groupings on 221 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 30 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 90 yards from the MIN 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, JAX attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
221 of 221 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
221
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
40%
Yards
812
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.0276%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR32-0.1338%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR21+0.0367%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.1576%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12-0.1842%
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8-0.8950%
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR7-0.8414%
Vikings0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR6-0.14100%
Vikings1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Jaguars1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR2——
Jaguars0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
221 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
221 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Jaguars6Vikings0
Touchdown7 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Vikings 28
Punt6 plays, from the Vikings 21 to the Vikings 33
Jaguars9Vikings0
Field goal10 plays, from the Jaguars 30 to the Vikings 4
Punt7 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 38
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 11 to the Jaguars 32
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter52 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Vikings 28 to the Vikings 29
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted13 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Vikings 21
Jaguars9Vikings6
Touchdown11 plays, from the Vikings 22 to the Jaguars 3
Punt6 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 34
Punt10 plays, from the Vikings 26 to the Vikings 39
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 23 to the Jaguars 32
The period ended5 plays, from the Vikings 21 to the Vikings 25
3rd quarter45 plays
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
Jaguars15Vikings6
Touchdown2 plays
Jaguars16Vikings6
Jaguars16Vikings12
Jaguars16Vikings13
Touchdown11 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Jaguars 12
Punt10 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to midfield
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
Jaguars16Vikings19
Touchdown11 plays, from the Vikings 10 to the Jaguars 20
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 30
The period ended6 plays, from the Jaguars 34 to the Jaguars 11
4th quarter59 plays
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost1 play
Jaguars16Vikings21
Drive ended3 plays, from the Jaguars 2 to the Jaguars 5
Punt8 plays, from the Vikings 38 to the Jaguars 40
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 20 to the Jaguars 28
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 34 to the Vikings 35
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Jaguars 18 to the Jaguars 41
Jaguars16Vikings24
Field goal5 plays, from the Jaguars 44 to the Jaguars 30
Jaguars22Vikings24
Touchdown13 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Vikings 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Jaguars24Vikings24
No good12 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Jaguars 33
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxThree defenders
No good3 plays, from the Jaguars 41 to the Vikings 44
Overtime26 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFive
Punt7 plays
Intercepted3 plays, from the Jaguars 18 to the Jaguars 20
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Jaguars24Vikings27
Field goal15 plays, from the Jaguars 46 to the Jaguars 1
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Vikings -10.5
Closing total
51
Jaguars moneyline
+365
Vikings moneyline
-445
Vikings closed -10.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 51 and landed exactly there — a push.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Land Clark
Rest
Jaguars 7 days · Vikings 7 days
Coaches
Doug Marrone vs Mike Zimmer
Overtime · 1:53MIN +15% win prob(1:53) PENALTY on MIN-78-D.Dozier, False Start, 4 yards, enforced at JAX 1 - No Play.
2nd · 7:46JAX +15% win prob(7:46) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass short left intended for 85-E.Saubert INTERCEPTED by 27-C.Dantzler at MIN 22. 27-C.Dantzler to MIN 22 for no gain (85-E.Saubert).
Jaguarscategory by categoryVikings
Jaguars6
Vikings0
