2020 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 6, 2020 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Jacksonville Jaguars

Minnesota VikingsWinner

MIN -10.5 no cover51 pushDomeVikings closed -10.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Minnesota Vikings 27–24 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:18, JAX +30% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:18JAX — MIN MIN ball · 4th & 1MIN 79%

(:18) 5-D.Bailey 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:18JAX +30% win prob(:18) 5-D.Bailey 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.
Q3 · 15:00JAX +25% win prob(15:00) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle intended for 33-D.Cook INTERCEPTED by 47-J.Schobert at MIN 43. 47-J.Schobert for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
OT · 8:16MIN +21% win prob(8:16) 2-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to JAX 28, Center-42-A.DePaola. 84-K.Cole Sr. to JAX 29 for 1 yard (85-D.Chisena). PENALTY on JAX-40-B.Watson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at JAX 28.
OT · 9:56JAX +17% win prob(9:56) 8-K.Cousins sacked at MIN 15 for -9 yards (94-D.Smoot).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Jaguars	Vikings
Offensive plays	69	85
Total yards	392	420 (edge)
Yards per play	5.7 (edge)	4.9
Expected points added / play	-0.09 (edge)	-0.12
Success rate	48% (edge)	45%
Dropback rate	68%	56%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.15	-0.03 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.03 (edge)	-0.23
Third downs	4/13	7/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8	8
First downs gained on snaps	21	27 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	4
Turnovers	5	2 (edge)

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

28/43, 305 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

-1.7 expected points added · +0.8% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Mike GlennonQB

28/42, 280 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

2.6 expected points added · -1.3% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Dalvin CookRB

32 att, 120 yds, 0 TD

-1.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

James RobinsonRB

18 att, 78 yds, 1 TD

-1.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

9/12 for 121 yds, 1 TD

30% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added

Receiving · MIN

Adam ThielenWR

8/11 for 75 yds, 1 TD

28% of team targets · 6.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	JAX	JAX 25	7	75	2:27	Touchdown
2	MIN	MIN 21	5	7	1:22	Punt
3	JAX	JAX 30	10	66	5:07	Turnover on downs
4	MIN	MIN 25	7	5	3:08	Punt
5	JAX	JAX 11	5	21	2:34	Punt
6	MIN	MIN 21	4	8	1:16	Punt
7	JAX	JAX 25	11	59	6:26	Interception
8	MIN	MIN 22	11	78	4:50	Touchdown
9	JAX	JAX 25	5	9	1:05	Punt
10	MIN	MIN 26	6	6	0:56	Punt
11	JAX	JAX 23	4	9	0:31	Punt
12	MIN	MIN 21	3	11	0:18	End of half
13	MIN	MIN 40	2	0	0:10	Defensive touchdown
14	MIN	MIN 25	10	85	3:42	Touchdown
15	JAX	JAX 25	9	15	3:51	Punt
16	MIN	MIN 10	9	57	3:50	Touchdown
17	JAX	JAX 25	4	7	1:03	Fumble
18	MIN	JAX 34	6	33	2:29	Fumble
19	JAX	JAX 2	3	-2	0:44	Fumble
20	MIN	MIN 38	8	22	3:39	Punt
21	JAX	JAX 20	4	8	1:30	Punt
22	MIN	MIN 34	4	-1	2:01	Punt
23	JAX	JAX 18	3	26	1:32	Fumble
24	MIN	JAX 44	5	14	1:39	Turnover on downs
25	JAX	JAX 25	12	82	2:42	Touchdown
26	MIN	MIN 25	9	42	0:55	Turnover on downs
27	JAX	JAX 41	3	15	0:13	Turnover on downs
28	MIN	MIN 24	5	3	1:54	Punt
29	JAX	JAX 18	3	2	0:53	Interception
30	MIN	JAX 46	11	50	5:24	Turnover on downs

0 of 30 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 85 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mike Glennon	28/42	280	1	2	2	2.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
James Robinson	18	78	4.3	1	-1.6
Laviska Shenault Jr.	2	30	15.0	0	2.3
Mike Glennon	3	9	3.0	0	-4.5
Dare Ogunbowale	2	7	3.5	0	0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Collin Johnson	4	6	66	0	15%	3.9
Tyler Eifert	6	6	45	0	15%	5.2
D.J. Chark	2	7	41	0	17%	-3.0
James O'Shaughnessy	4	6	41	0	15%	1.2
Laviska Shenault Jr.	3	3	38	1	7%	2.7
James Robinson	6	6	30	0	15%	1.4
Chris Conley	2	2	12	0	5%	-3.9
Keelan Cole	1	2	7	0	5%	-1.3
Dare Ogunbowale	0	2	0	0	5%	-1.3
Eric Saubert	0	1	0	0	2%	-5.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Joe Schobert	5	7	1.0	1	2
Myles Jack	6	5	0.0	0	0
Josh Jones	7	3	0.0	0	0
Tre Herndon	8	1	0.0	0	1
Joe Giles-Harris	2	3	0.0	0	0
Doug Costin	1	4	0.0	0	1
Luq Barcoo	5	0	0.0	0	1
Jarrod Wilson	3	2	0.0	0	0
Dawuane Smoot	3	1	2.0	0	0
Josiah Scott	2	1	0.0	0	0

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	28/43	305	3	1	4	-1.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Dalvin Cook	32	120	3.8	-1.8
Kirk Cousins	3	12	4.0	-5.7
Ameer Abdullah	2	11	5.5	-0.2
Justin Jefferson	1	2	2.0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Justin Jefferson	9	12	121	1	30%	4.6
Adam Thielen	8	11	75	1	28%	6.7
Dalvin Cook	6	9	59	0	23%	-7.4
Ameer Abdullah	1	1	18	0	3%	0.7
C.J. Ham	1	1	12	1	3%	1.5
Tyler Conklin	1	1	10	0	3%	0.9
Chad Beebe	2	3	10	0	8%	0.0
Kyle Rudolph	0	2	0	0	5%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Todd Davis	3	8	0.0	0	0
Eric Wilson	4	7	0.0	0	1
Kris Boyd	2	4	0.0	0	0
Harrison Smith	4	2	0.5	1	2
Anthony Harris	2	3	0.0	0	1
Jeff Gladney	3	2	0.0	0	0
Cameron Dantzler	3	1	0.0	1	1
Troy Dye	4	0	0.0	0	0
Eddie Yarbrough	1	2	0.0	0	0
Hercules Mata'afa	1	2	0.5	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIN -10.5
Closing total: 51
JAX moneyline: +365
MIN moneyline: -445

Vikings closed -10.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 51 and landed exactly there — a push.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: JAX 7 days · MIN 7 days
Coaches: Doug Marrone vs Mike Zimmer