For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2020 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 6, 2020 · State Farm Stadium
Final
RamsLos Angeles38
BY 10final margin
CardinalsArizona28
Los Angeles Rams 38 at Arizona Cardinals 28. Final.
Rams -2.5 ✓O 49 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 13
Los Angeles Rams 38, Cardinals 28 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 14:00, 4th and 10 — 13.0 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 14:00 · 4th and 10
Unnamed on the sheet
Cardinals
(14:00) 4-A.Lee punts 54 yards to LA 11, Center-46-A.Brewer. 14-N.Webster to LA 18 for 7 yards (28-C.Washington). FUMBLES (28-C.Washington), RECOVERED by ARI-16-T.Sherfield at LA 15. Penalty on LA-82-J.Mundt, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.
Dome
Rams closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Los Angeles Rams 38–28. Biggest swing: Q4 14:00, Cardinals +13.0% win probability on one snap.
13.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Dan ArnoldCardinalsQ1 13:35(13:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 85-D.Arnold for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
11.3pts
KeeSean JohnsonCardinalsQ3 6:58(6:58) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 19-K.Johnson to LA 28 for 12 yards (22-T.Hill).
8.7pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Rams won this one — 55% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Cardinals at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Rams won this one — +0.38 expected points per dropback, against Cardinals at -0.28 expected points per dropback.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Rams won this one — 9 of 15 on third down, against Cardinals at 4 of 12 on third down.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Rams won this one — +0.19 expected points per snap, against Cardinals at -0.18 expected points per snap.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Cardinals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Cardinalshigher on Rams181 of 195 plays carry both curves
(14:00) 4-A.Lee punts 54 yards to LA 11, Center-46-A.Brewer. 14-N.Webster to LA 18 for 7 yards (28-C.Washington). FUMBLES (28-C.Washington), RECOVERED by ARI-16-T.Sherfield at LA 15. Penalty on LA-82-J.Mundt, Illegal Blo
Swing +13.0 for CardinalsExpected points +5.72 for CardinalsThe model had Cardinals 3 points higher than the market did.play 145
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 14:00ARI +13% win prob(14:00) 4-A.Lee punts 54 yards to LA 11, Center-46-A.Brewer. 14-N.Webster to LA 18 for 7 yards (28-C.Washington). FUMBLES (28-C.Washington), RECOVERED by ARI-16-T.Sherfield at LA 15. Penalty on LA-82-J.Mundt, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.
1st · 13:35ARI +11% win prob(13:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 85-D.Arnold for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 6:58ARI +9% win prob(6:58) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 19-K.Johnson to LA 28 for 12 yards (22-T.Hill).
4th · 10:15ARI +8% win prob(10:15) 27-D.Henderson up the middle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 13:45ARI +8% win prob(13:45) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 34-M.Brown pushed ob at ARI 23 for 30 yards (21-P.Peterson).
2nd · 5:28LA +8% win prob(5:28) (No Huddle) 23-C.Akers left tackle to ARI 2 for -1 yards (96-A.Blackson).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tyler Higbee's 1-yard touchdown catch with 0:56 left in the 2nd put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Rams ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.19Rams: +0.19 expected points added per play
−0.18Cardinals: −0.18 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.38Rams: +0.38 expected points added per play
−0.28Cardinals: −0.28 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.11Rams: −0.11 expected points added per play
+0.02Cardinals: +0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Rams ran 77 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Cardinals’s 61 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Rams 7, Cardinals 4.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.18.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 13Against their seasonFourth Down
LA's fourth-and-short go rate, 66.7%, is past their previous high of 33.3% in week 5 — the highest of their 8 charted games through week 13.
2.1 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.4-swing turn from week 12.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 11 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 19.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −3.9 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−0.58× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Cardinals14.6%
right on their number · −2.0 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.31× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLA's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 66.7%, 41.7 points above their season mean of 25.0% and 2.1 times their own 19.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
66Austin BlytheC · Every snap100%82 snaps
63Austin CorbettG · Every snap100%82 snaps
79Rob HavensteinT · Every snap100%82 snaps
73David EdwardsG · Every snap100%82 snaps
70Joseph NoteboomG · Every snap100%82 snaps
16Jared GoffQB · Every snap100%82 snaps
89Tyler HigbeeTE · Full-time84%69 snaps
17Robert WoodsWR · Heavy rotation74%61 snaps
81Gerald EverettTE · Heavy rotation73%60 snaps
10Cooper KuppWR · Heavy rotation65%53 snaps
23Cam AkersRB · Heavy rotation63%52 snaps
12Van JeffersonWR · Rotational49%40 snaps
11Josh ReynoldsWR · Rotational45%37 snaps
27Darrell HendersonRB · Situational21%17 snaps
34Malcolm BrownRB · Situational16%13 snaps
82Johnny MundtTE · Situational9%7 snaps
14Nsimba WebsterWR · Situational1%1 snap
Inactive · 6
Brian AllenCMarquise CopelandDTTerrell LewisLBRaymond CalaisRBBrycen HopkinsTETrishton JacksonWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Cardinals attack right, the Rams attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Rams←Cardinals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Lee punts+19% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(14:00) 4-A.Lee punts 54 yards to LA 11, Center-46-A.Brewer. 14-N.Webster to LA 18 for 7 yards (28-C.Washington). FUMBLES (28-C.Washington), RECOVERED by ARI-16-T.Sherfield at LA 15. Penalty on LA-82-J.Mundt, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.
Q4 14:00 · Cardinals · 4th & 10 at ARI 35 · gained nothing · +5.72 EP · +19.4% win probability
179 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 195 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 195 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 85 yards from the LA 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ARI attacks right, LA attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
195 of 195 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
195
EPA per play
+0.05
Success rate
45%
Yards
695
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR40+0.1860%
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR39-0.3174%
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.2773%
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR14-0.2243%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Rams1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Cardinals2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Cardinals2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
195 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
195 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 6, quarter-quarter-halfMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.3 seconds
Rams0Cardinals6
Rams0Cardinals7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 41
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Cardinals 38
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 38 to the Cardinals 43
Punt11 plays, from the Rams 10 to the Rams 33
Punt4 plays, from the Cardinals 30 to the Cardinals 36
The period ended6 plays, from the Rams 15 to the Rams 26
2nd quarter53 plays
Rams6Cardinals7
Rams7Cardinals7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Rams 40 to the Cardinals 9
Punt5 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Turnover on downs8 plays, from the Rams 44 to the Cardinals 1
Punt5 plays
Rams13Cardinals7
Rams14Cardinals7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Cardinals 45 to the Cardinals 1
No good10 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Rams 30
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Rams17Cardinals7
Field goal10 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Cardinals 18
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Rams17Cardinals13
Rams17Cardinals14
Touchdown18 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Rams 4
The period ended11 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Cardinals 11
4th quarter60 plays
Rams23Cardinals14
Rams24Cardinals14
Touchdown3 plays, from the Cardinals 3 to the Cardinals 1
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Cardinals 35
Rams24Cardinals20
Rams24Cardinals21
Touchdown3 plays, from the Rams 15 to the Rams 4
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Rams30Cardinals21
Rams31Cardinals21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Rams 24 to the Cardinals 38
Fumble lost9 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to midfield
No good5 plays, from the Cardinals 26 to the Cardinals 19
Rams37Cardinals21
Touchdown3 plays, from the Cardinals 27 to the Cardinals 28
Rams38Cardinals21
Rams38Cardinals27
Rams38Cardinals28
Touchdown12 plays, from the Rams 47 to the Rams 1
The period ended8 plays, from midfield to the Cardinals 39
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Rams -2.5
Closing total
49
Rams moneyline
-144
Cardinals moneyline
+130
Rams closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 10.
Total closed 49; the game landed 66 — over by 17.0.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface
closed · grass
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Jerome Boger
Rest
Rams 7 days · Cardinals 7 days
Coaches
Sean McVay vs Kliff Kingsbury
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
1st · 14:26
ARI +7% win prob
(14:26) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray sacked at ARI 20 for -6 yards (54-L.Floyd). PENALTY on LA-54-L.Floyd, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at ARI 26 - No Play.
4th · 12:10ARI +7% win prob(12:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 81-G.Everett to LA 45 for 22 yards (58-J.Hicks).
Ramscategory by categoryCardinals
Rams0
Cardinals6
