2020 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 6, 2020 · State Farm Stadium

Los Angeles RamsWinner

Arizona Cardinals

LA -2.5 ✓O 49 ✓DomeRams closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 10.

Los Angeles Rams 38–28. Biggest swing: Q4 14:00, ARI +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 14:00LA — ARI ARI ball · 4th & 10LA 92%

(14:00) 4-A.Lee punts 54 yards to LA 11, Center-46-A.Brewer. 14-N.Webster to LA 18 for 7 yards (28-C.Washington). FUMBLES (28-C.Washington), RECOVERED by ARI-16-T.Sherfield at LA 15. Penalty on LA-82-J.Mundt, Illegal Blo

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 14:00ARI +13% win prob(14:00) 4-A.Lee punts 54 yards to LA 11, Center-46-A.Brewer. 14-N.Webster to LA 18 for 7 yards (28-C.Washington). FUMBLES (28-C.Washington), RECOVERED by ARI-16-T.Sherfield at LA 15. Penalty on LA-82-J.Mundt, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.
Q1 · 13:35ARI +11% win prob(13:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 85-D.Arnold for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 6:58ARI +9% win prob(6:58) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 19-K.Johnson to LA 28 for 12 yards (22-T.Hill).
Q4 · 10:15ARI +8% win prob(10:15) 27-D.Henderson up the middle for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Rams	Cardinals
Offensive plays	77	61
Total yards	465 (edge)	232
Yards per play	6.0 (edge)	3.8
Expected points added / play	0.19 (edge)	-0.18
Success rate	55% (edge)	38%
Dropback rate	62%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.38 (edge)	-0.28
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.11	0.02 (edge)
Third downs	9/15 (edge)	4/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	27 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	2
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.19 expected points added per play vs -0.18.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LA

Jared GoffQB

37/47, 351 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

18.2 expected points added · +10.2% completion over expected

Passing · ARI

Kyler MurrayQB

21/39, 173 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

-11.5 expected points added · -12.2% completion over expected

Rushing · LA

Cam AkersRB

21 att, 72 yds, 1 TD

-6.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ARI

Kenyan DrakeRB

10 att, 49 yds, 1 TD

1.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LA

Robert WoodsWR

10/11 for 85 yds, 0 TD

25% of team targets · 3.8 expected points added

Receiving · LA

Cooper KuppWR

8/9 for 73 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 5.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ARI	ARI 25	6	60	1:35	Touchdown
2	LA	LA 25	9	37	3:56	Turnover on downs
3	ARI	ARI 38	4	-4	1:35	Punt
4	LA	LA 10	8	11	3:50	Punt
5	ARI	ARI 30	4	6	1:17	Punt
6	LA	LA 15	15	77	7:12	Touchdown
7	ARI	ARI 25	5	0	0:59	Punt
8	LA	LA 44	8	54	4:13	Turnover on downs
9	ARI	ARI 2	4	0	1:05	Punt
10	LA	ARI 45	10	45	3:27	Touchdown
11	ARI	ARI 25	7	20	0:47	Turnover on downs
12	LA	LA 38	1	0	0:04	End of half
13	LA	LA 25	9	64	4:34	Turnover on downs
14	ARI	ARI 25	17	75	6:23	Touchdown
15	LA	LA 25	11	73	4:11	Touchdown
16	ARI	ARI 25	7	10	1:06	Punt
17	ARI	LA 15	3	15	0:25	Touchdown
18	LA	LA 24	9	76	3:14	Touchdown
19	ARI	ARI 25	9	1	2:50	Fumble
20	LA	ARI 26	5	17	2:08	Turnover on downs
21	ARI	ARI 27	3	1	0:36	Defensive touchdown
22	ARI	LA 47	10	48	2:29	Touchdown
23	LA	50	6	11	2:04	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Rams gained 77 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Los Angeles Rams

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jared Goff	37/47	351	1	0	1	18.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Cam Akers	21	72	3.4	1	-6.5
Darrell Henderson	3	49	16.3	1	4.4
Jared Goff	4	1	0.3	1	-0.0
Malcolm Brown	3	-3	-1.0	0	-2.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Robert Woods	10	11	85	0	25%	3.8
Cooper Kupp	8	9	73	0	20%	5.8
Gerald Everett	6	7	44	0	16%	0.3
Malcolm Brown	1	1	30	0	2%	3.6
Van Jefferson	4	5	27	0	11%	0.5
Darrell Henderson	2	3	25	0	7%	0.5
Tyler Higbee	4	6	24	1	14%	4.3
Cam Akers	1	1	22	0	2%	1.7
Josh Reynolds	1	1	21	0	2%	1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Troy Reeder	6	4	0.0	0	1
John Johnson	8	1	0.0	0	0
Sebastian Joseph	1	3	0.0	0	1
Troy Hill	4	0	0.0	1	2
Justin Hollins	3	0	1.0	0	0
Aaron Donald	2	1	1.0	0	0
Samson Ebukam	2	1	0.0	0	0
Kenny Young	1	1	0.0	0	0
Jordan Fuller	2	0	0.0	0	0
Jalen Ramsey	2	0	0.0	0	0

Arizona Cardinals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kyler Murray	21/39	173	3	1	2	-11.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Kenyan Drake	10	49	4.9	1	1.8
Chase Edmonds	6	28	4.7	0	-0.6
Kyler Murray	5	15	3.0	0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Dan Arnold	2	3	61	2	8%	8.4
DeAndre Hopkins	8	13	52	1	36%	0.7
KeeSean Johnson	4	4	27	0	11%	4.5
Chase Edmonds	2	5	15	0	14%	-1.9
Kenyan Drake	2	3	9	0	8%	-0.8
Andy Isabella	2	5	7	0	14%	-9.9
Christian Kirk	1	3	2	0	8%	-1.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast
Budda Baker	9	2
Chris Banjo	9	1
Domata Peko	3	4
De'Vondre Campbell	5	1
Patrick Peterson	4	1
Dre Kirkpatrick	5	0
Angelo Blackson	2	2
Jordan Hicks	3	1
Isaiah Simmons	3	1
Markus Golden	2	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LA -2.5
Closing total: 49
LA moneyline: -144
ARI moneyline: +130

Rams closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 10.

Total closed 49; the game landed 66 — over by 17.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: LA 7 days · ARI 7 days
Coaches: Sean McVay vs Kliff Kingsbury

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.