2020 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 6, 2020 · MetLife Stadium

Las Vegas RaidersWinner

New York Jets

LV -7.5 no coverO 48 ✓18 mph windRaiders closed -7.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Las Vegas Raiders 31–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:13, NYJ +77% win probability on one snap. Played in 18 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:13LV — NYJ LV ball · 3rd & 10NYJ 85%

(:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 11-H.Ruggs for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:13NYJ +77% win prob(:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 11-H.Ruggs for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 1:42LV +32% win prob(1:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short left to 15-N.Agholor.
Q4 · 2:11NYJ +21% win prob(2:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep middle to 83-D.Waller. PENALTY on NYJ-20-M.Maye, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 21 - No Play.
Q4 · 4:38NYJ +19% win prob(4:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 83-D.Waller ran ob at NYJ 33 for 29 yards (20-M.Maye) [41-M.Farley].

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Raiders	Jets
Offensive plays	73	61
Total yards	440 (edge)	378
Yards per play	6.0	6.2 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.04	0.10 (edge)
Success rate	40%	51% (edge)
Dropback rate	68%	48%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.13 (edge)	-0.04
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.17	0.22 (edge)
Third downs	7/14	5/9 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	22	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	2 (edge)	3

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LV

Derek CarrQB

28/47, 381 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT

10.7 expected points added · +0.3% completion over expected

Passing · NYJ

Sam DarnoldQB

14/23, 186 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-1.9 expected points added · +3.8% completion over expected

Rushing · NYJ

Ty JohnsonRB

22 att, 104 yds, 1 TD

4.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NYJ

Josh AdamsRB

8 att, 74 yds, 0 TD

2.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Darren WallerTE

13/17 for 200 yds, 2 TD

37% of team targets · 16.4 expected points added

Receiving · LV

Henry RuggsWR

3/4 for 84 yds, 1 TD

9% of team targets · -1.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NYJ	NYJ 26	14	74	5:57	Touchdown
2	LV	LV 25	8	43	3:48	Interception
3	NYJ	NYJ 45	4	0	1:04	Punt
4	LV	LV 21	8	74	3:59	Touchdown
5	NYJ	NYJ 31	9	69	3:10	Touchdown
6	LV	LV 25	10	35	3:39	Punt
7	NYJ	NYJ 9	3	22	1:25	Fumble
8	LV	NYJ 31	4	1	0:51	Turnover on downs
9	NYJ	NYJ 25	6	32	3:01	Interception
10	LV	LV 34	6	66	1:54	Touchdown
11	NYJ	NYJ 25	6	40	0:44	Fumble
12	LV	LV 40	4	5	0:28	End of half
13	LV	LV 25	15	75	7:08	Touchdown
14	NYJ	NYJ 25	5	5	1:55	Punt
15	LV	LV 48	4	5	1:38	Punt
16	NYJ	NYJ 20	4	4	2:25	Punt
17	LV	LV 40	4	5	1:32	Punt
18	NYJ	NYJ 4	10	98	5:00	Touchdown
19	LV	LV 30	4	14	1:37	Fumble
20	NYJ	LV 44	7	29	3:11	Touchdown
21	LV	LV 25	15	56	3:57	Turnover on downs
22	NYJ	NYJ 9	4	5	1:02	Punt
23	LV	LV 39	5	61	0:30	Touchdown
24	NYJ	50	2	0	0:05	End of game

0 of 24 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jets gained 98 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	28/47	381	3	1	2	10.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Devontae Booker	16	50	3.1	0	-2.7
Jalen Richard	4	11	2.8	0	-0.3
Theo Riddick	3	6	2.0	0	-0.8
Derek Carr	2	5	2.5	1	0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Darren Waller	13	17	200	2	37%	16.4
Henry Ruggs	3	4	84	1	9%	-1.5
Hunter Renfrow	4	6	47	0	13%	2.8
Nelson Agholor	4	11	38	0	24%	-3.7
Jalen Richard	1	1	6	0	2%	0.2
Theo Riddick	1	1	3	0	2%	-1.1
Alec Ingold	1	1	2	0	2%	-0.6
Devontae Booker	1	2	1	0	4%	-1.4
Zay Jones	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.9
Jason Witten	0	1	0	0	2%	-1.2
Bryan Edwards	0	1	0	0	2%	-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jeff Heath	7	1	0.0	0
Nick Kwiatkoski	5	2	0.0	0
Clelin Ferrell	4	3	2.0	1
Nicholas Morrow	3	2	1.0	0
Erik Harris	4	0	0.0	1
Maurice Hurst	1	2	0.0	0
Nevin Lawson	3	0	0.0	0
Cory Littleton	3	0	0.0	0
Dallin Leavitt	1	1	0.0	1
Arden Key	2	0	0.0	0

New York Jets

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Sam Darnold	14/23	186	2	1	3	-1.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ty Johnson	22	104	4.7	1	4.1
Josh Adams	8	74	9.3	0	2.6
Sam Darnold	3	26	8.7	1	1.9
Frank Gore	1	2	2.0	0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jamison Crowder	5	7	47	2	35%	6.5
Denzel Mims	2	3	40	0	15%	3.1
Braxton Berrios	2	2	33	0	10%	1.7
Ryan Griffin	2	2	31	0	10%	2.7
Breshad Perriman	1	4	22	0	20%	-3.2
Ty Johnson	2	2	13	0	10%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Harvey Langi	4	4	0.0	0
Neville Hewitt	5	3	1.0	0
Bryce Hall	7	0	0.0	0
Javelin Guidry	4	2	0.0	0
Ashtyn Davis	5	1	0.0	0
Quinnen Williams	3	1	1.0	0
Marcus Maye	2	1	0.0	2
Lamar Jackson	3	0	0.0	0
Jordan Jenkins	2	1	0.0	0
Folorunso Fatukasi	2	0	0.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LV -7.5
Closing total: 48
LV moneyline: -349
NYJ moneyline: +295

Raiders closed -7.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 48; the game landed 59 — over by 11.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: MetLife Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: 39°F, wind 18 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: LV 7 days · NYJ 7 days
Coaches: Jon Gruden vs Adam Gase

Wind at 18 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.