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Las Vegas Raiders 31, Jets 28 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:13, 3rd and 10, on Henry Ruggs — 76.9 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:13 · 3rd and 10
Henry Ruggs
Raiders
(:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 11-H.Ruggs for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
18.3 mph wind
Raiders closed -7.5, won by 3 — but didn't cover.
Las Vegas Raiders 31–28 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:13, Raiders +76.9% win probability on one snap. Played in 18.3 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
76.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Derek CarrRaidersQ4 2:11(2:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep middle to 83-D.Waller. PENALTY on NYJ-20-M.Maye, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 21 - No Play.
21.2pts
Derek CarrJetsQ4 1:42(1:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short left to 15-N.Agholor.
32.5pts
What separated them
Red zone
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 4 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Raiders at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Jets owned this one and still lost it — +0.22 expected points per carry, against Raiders at -0.17 expected points per carry.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 10 chunk plays, against Raiders at 6 chunk plays.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Jets owned this one and still lost it — 51% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Raiders at 40% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Jetsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 18.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 37 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jetshigher on Raiders171 of 181 plays carry both curves
(:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 11-H.Ruggs for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −76.9 for JetsExpected points −6.36 for JetsModel and market agree here.play 177
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:13NYJ +77% win prob(:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 11-H.Ruggs for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:42LV +32% win prob(1:42) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete short left to 15-N.Agholor.
4th · 2:11NYJ +21% win prob(2:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep middle to 83-D.Waller. PENALTY on NYJ-20-M.Maye, Defensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at NYJ 21 - No Play.
4th · 4:38NYJ +19% win prob(4:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 83-D.Waller ran ob at NYJ 33 for 29 yards (20-M.Maye) [41-M.Farley].
1st · 5:27LV +19% win prob(5:27) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left intended for 11-H.Ruggs INTERCEPTED by 23-A.Maulet at NYJ 25. 23-A.Maulet to NYJ 45 for 20 yards (74-K.Miller). Ball thrown to the 30 yardline and tipped by receiver #11 Rugs.
2nd · 3:12LV +19% win prob(3:12) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right intended for 19-B.Perriman INTERCEPTED by 27-T.Mullen at LV 34. 27-T.Mullen to LV 34 for no gain (19-B.Perriman).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Henry Ruggs's 46-yard touchdown catch with 0:13 left in the 4th put Las Vegas Raiders ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
Lead
1st9:08Jamison Crowder·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Sam Darnoldfrom Sam Darnold+70–7
Jets ahead 6–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.04Raiders: +0.04 expected points added per play
+0.10Jets: +0.10 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.13Raiders: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.04Jets: −0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.17Raiders: −0.17 expected points added per play
+0.22Jets: +0.22 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Raiders ran 73 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Jets’s 61 at 48%. Red-zone trips: Raiders 5, Jets 4.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 13Against their seasonTendencies
LV's sack or hit rate, 24.1%, is past their previous high of 19.5% in week 12 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
29 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
NYJ's early-down pass rate, 41.2%, is past their previous low of 45.2% in week 11 — the lowest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
51 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 12 pts
leaned — got home · +12.0 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+1.90× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Jets12.0%
right on their number · −1.1 vs their 13.1%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.13× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLV's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 24.1%, 12.0 points above their season mean of 12.2% and 1.9 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jets attack right, the Raiders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Raiders←Jets→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Carr pass+73% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:13) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left to 11-H.Ruggs for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 0:13 · Raiders · 3rd & 10 at NYJ 46 · gained 46 · +6.36 EP · +73.3% win probability
169 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 181 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 181 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was NYJ moving 96 yards from the NYJ 4 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYJ attacks right, LV attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
181 of 181 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
181
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
43%
Yards
818
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR42+0.0971%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.1543%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.3479%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.0246%
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR11+0.1218%
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6-0.1233%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.3017%
Jets1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR5-0.2780%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Jets0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Raiders2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
181 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
181 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter39 plays
Raiders0Jets6
Raiders0Jets7
Touchdown14 plays, from the Jets 26 to the Raiders 3
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Intercepted8 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Jets 32
Punt4 plays
Raiders6Jets7
Raiders7Jets7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Raiders 21 to the Jets 9
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter51 plays
Raiders7Jets13
Touchdown7 plays, from the Jets 33 to the Raiders 6
Punt10 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Jets 40
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Jets 9 to the Jets 33
Raiders10Jets13
Field goal4 plays, from the Jets 31 to the Jets 30
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Raiders 38
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Raiders16Jets13
Raiders17Jets13
Touchdown6 plays, from the Raiders 34 to the Jets 38
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost8 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Raiders 35
The period ended6 plays, from the Raiders 40 to the Jets 42
3rd quarter37 plays
Raiders23Jets13
Raiders24Jets13
Touchdown16 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Jets 2
Punt7 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 48 to the Jets 47
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Jets 24
Punt4 plays, from the Raiders 40 to the Raiders 45
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter54 plays
Raiders24Jets19
Raiders24Jets21
Touchdown10 plays, from the Jets 16 to the Raiders 4
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
Fumble lost4 plays, from the Raiders 30 to the Raiders 34
Raiders24Jets27
Raiders24Jets28
Touchdown7 plays, from the Raiders 44 to the Raiders 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.0 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSevenPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.0 seconds
Turnover on downs19 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Jets 9
Punt6 plays, from the Jets 9 to the Jets 14
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerEightPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.5 seconds
Raiders30Jets28
Raiders31Jets28
Touchdown5 plays, from the Raiders 39 to the Jets 46
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw7.3 seconds
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
