For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
New England Patriots 45 at Los Angeles Chargers 0. Final.
Chargers -2.5 upset
The verdict · 2020 Week 13
New England Patriots 45, Chargers 0 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 14:18, 4th and 9 — 9.0 win-probability points to the Patriots on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 14:18 · 4th and 9
Unnamed on the sheet
Patriots
(14:18) 1-T.Long punts 49 yards to NE 30, Center-45-C.Mazza. 80-G.Olszewski for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
U 47 ✓
Dome
Chargers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New England Patriots 45–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 14:18, Patriots +9.0% win probability on one snap.
9.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Michael BadgleyPatriotsQ1 1:30(1:30) 4-M.Badgley 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.
7.5pts
Michael BadgleyPatriotsQ2 0:03(:03) 4-M.Badgley 58 yard field goal is BLOCKED (22-Co.Davis), Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long, RECOVERED by NE-32-D.McCourty at LAC 44. 32-D.McCourty for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7.6pts
What separated them
Every snap
Patriots won this one — +0.10 expected points per snap, against Chargers at -0.38 expected points per snap.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Patriots won this one — +0.12 expected points per dropback, against Chargers at -0.51 expected points per dropback.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Patriots won this one — no giveaways, against Chargers at 2 giveaways.
Patriotsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Patriots won this one — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Chargers at 31% of snaps stayed on schedule.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 6 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Patriots170 of 178 plays carry both curves
(14:18) 1-T.Long punts 49 yards to NE 30, Center-45-C.Mazza. 80-G.Olszewski for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −9.0 for ChargersExpected points −5.21 for ChargersModel and market agree here.play 38
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 14:18NE +9% win prob(14:18) 1-T.Long punts 49 yards to NE 30, Center-45-C.Mazza. 80-G.Olszewski for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:03NE +8% win prob(:03) 4-M.Badgley 58 yard field goal is BLOCKED (22-Co.Davis), Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long, RECOVERED by NE-32-D.McCourty at LAC 44. 32-D.McCourty for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 1:30NE +8% win prob(1:30) 4-M.Badgley 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.
1st · 3:35LAC +7% win prob(3:35) (Shotgun) 31-K.Ballage up the middle to NE 39 for 2 yards (51-J.Bentley).
1st · 9:27LAC +6% win prob(9:27) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton up the middle to LAC 10 for 2 yards (95-L.Joseph).
1st · 2:10NE +5% win prob(2:10) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert sacked at NE 28 for -3 yards (91-D.Wise).
1st · 12:56
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cam Newton's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 7:52 left in the 1st put New England Patriots ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:52Cam Newton·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+77–0
2nd14:18Gunner Olszewski·70-yd return TD70-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick+714–0
Patriots ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.10Patriots: +0.10 expected points added per play
−0.38Chargers: −0.38 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.12Patriots: +0.12 expected points added per play
−0.51Chargers: −0.51 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.09Patriots: +0.09 expected points added per play
+0.08Chargers: +0.08 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 64 snaps at a 41% dropback rate against Chargers’s 70 at 79%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 6, Chargers 0.
NotePatriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.38.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 13Against their seasonTendencies
LAC's early-down pass rate, 72.3%, is past their previous high of 66.1% in week 11 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
47 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.7 points.
high through week 13Against their seasonFourth Down
LAC's fourth-and-short go rate, 75.0%, is past their previous high of 66.7% in week 9 — the highest of their 7 charted games through week 13.
4 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 8 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 29.1 points.
LAC's sack or hit rate turned over: 27.6% in week 12 against 7.7% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 3.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
26 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32 pts to 18 pts
leaned — got home · +7.8 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+1.17× that swing) · 55 dropbacks
Chargers7.7%
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.6 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (−1.09× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLAC's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 72.3%, 16.7 points above their season mean of 55.6% and 1.7 times their own 9.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Long punts−12% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(14:18) 1-T.Long punts 49 yards to NE 30, Center-45-C.Mazza. 80-G.Olszewski for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 14:18 · Chargers · 4th & 9 at LAC 21 · gained nothing · -5.21 EP · −11.7% win probability
168 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was NE moving 75 yards from the NE 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
-0.26
Success rate
37%
Yards
549
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR65-0.4783%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR33+0.0452%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR29+0.0821%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 0 WR1——
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR1——
Patriots2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Patriots6Chargers0
Patriots7Chargers0
Touchdown15 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Chargers 1
No good13 plays, from the Chargers 27 to the Patriots 25
Punt4 plays
2nd quarter56 plays
Patriots13Chargers0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Chargers 21
Patriots14Chargers0
Punt5 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Chargers 31
Punt7 plays, from the Patriots 24 to the Chargers 48
Punt6 plays, from the Chargers 8 to the Chargers 19
Patriots20Chargers0
Patriots21Chargers0
Touchdown22 plays, from the Patriots 46 to the Chargers 2
Patriots27Chargers0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chargers 16 to the Patriots 40
Patriots28Chargers0
3rd quarter43 plays
Intercepted7 plays, from the Chargers 8 to the Chargers 28
Patriots34Chargers0
Patriots35Chargers0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Chargers 32 to the Chargers 5
Intercepted11 plays, from the Chargers 23 to the Patriots 35
Punt12 plays, from the Patriots 20 to the Chargers 44
The period ended4 plays, from the Chargers 5 to the Chargers 10
4th quarter45 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Chargers 17 to the Chargers 20
Patriots38Chargers0
Field goal4 plays, from the Chargers 17 to the Chargers 10
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Patriots 30
Patriots44Chargers0
Patriots45Chargers0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Patriots 39 to the Chargers 38
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Chargers 28 to the Patriots 30
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 30 to the Patriots 38
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Chargers 9 to the Chargers 15
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
