2020 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 6, 2020 · SoFi Stadium

New England PatriotsWinner

Los Angeles Chargers

LAC -2.5 upsetU 47 ✓DomeChargers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

New England Patriots 45–0 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 14:18, NE +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 14:18NE — LAC LAC ball · 4th & 9NE 69%

(14:18) 1-T.Long punts 49 yards to NE 30, Center-45-C.Mazza. 80-G.Olszewski for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 14:18NE +9% win prob(14:18) 1-T.Long punts 49 yards to NE 30, Center-45-C.Mazza. 80-G.Olszewski for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 0:03NE +8% win prob(:03) 4-M.Badgley 58 yard field goal is BLOCKED (22-Co.Davis), Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long, RECOVERED by NE-32-D.McCourty at LAC 44. 32-D.McCourty for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 1:30NE +8% win prob(1:30) 4-M.Badgley 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.
Q1 · 3:35LAC +7% win prob(3:35) (Shotgun) 31-K.Ballage up the middle to NE 39 for 2 yards (51-J.Bentley).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Patriots	Chargers
Offensive plays	64	70
Total yards	293 (edge)	258
Yards per play	4.6 (edge)	3.7
Expected points added / play	0.10 (edge)	-0.38
Success rate	44% (edge)	31%
Dropback rate	41%	79%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.12 (edge)	-0.51
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09 (edge)	0.08
Third downs	6/14 (edge)	7/18
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	19 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	2

Patriots won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.10 expected points added per play vs -0.38.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

26/53, 209 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT

-27.4 expected points added · -20.6% completion over expected

Passing · NE

Cam NewtonQB

12/19, 69 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-5.2 expected points added · -2.5% completion over expected

Rushing · NE

Damien HarrisRB

16 att, 80 yds, 0 TD

1.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NE

Cam NewtonQB

14 att, 48 yds, 2 TD

4.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LAC

Keenan AllenWR

5/11 for 48 yds, 0 TD

21% of team targets · -7.5 expected points added

Receiving · LAC

Mike WilliamsWR

4/9 for 43 yds, 0 TD

17% of team targets · 0.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NE	NE 25	15	75	7:10	Touchdown
2	LAC	LAC 27	13	45	6:25	Turnover on downs
3	NE	NE 36	4	-1	1:25	Punt
4	LAC	LAC 20	4	1	0:58	Defensive touchdown
5	LAC	LAC 25	5	6	1:38	Punt
6	NE	NE 24	7	37	4:19	Punt
7	LAC	LAC 8	5	11	1:33	Punt
8	NE	NE 46	17	54	5:41	Touchdown
9	LAC	LAC 16	8	39	0:51	Turnover on downs
10	LAC	LAC 8	7	20	2:38	Interception
11	NE	LAC 32	8	25	3:38	Touchdown
12	LAC	LAC 23	11	42	3:33	Interception
13	NE	NE 20	10	31	4:44	Punt
14	LAC	LAC 5	7	15	2:02	Punt
15	NE	LAC 17	4	3	2:04	Turnover on downs
16	LAC	LAC 25	9	31	3:08	Turnover on downs
17	NE	NE 39	5	61	1:23	Touchdown
18	LAC	LAC 28	11	42	2:44	Turnover on downs
19	NE	NE 30	4	8	1:59	Punt
20	LAC	LAC 9	4	6	0:49	Turnover on downs
21	NE	LAC 15	2	0	1:18	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Patriots gained 75 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New England Patriots

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Cam Newton	12/19	69	1	0	1	-5.2
Jarrett Stidham	2/3	61	1	0	0	5.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Damien Harris	16	80	5.0	0	1.3
Cam Newton	14	48	3.4	2	4.7
Sony Michel	10	35	3.5	0	-1.0
Donte Moncrief	1	4	4.0	0	0.9
Jarrett Stidham	2	-2	-1.0	0	-4.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Gunner Olszewski	1	1	38	1	5%	4.1
Sony Michel	1	1	23	0	5%	2.0
Damiere Byrd	2	3	16	0	14%	0.0
Damien Harris	1	1	15	0	5%	0.9
N'Keal Harry	2	3	15	1	14%	1.6
Jakobi Meyers	2	6	15	0	29%	-1.8
Ryan Izzo	1	1	6	0	5%	0.4
James White	3	4	1	0	19%	-3.7
Jakob Johnson	1	1	1	0	5%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Adrian Phillips	7	5	0.0	0	1
Kyle Dugger	3	3	0.0	0	0
Ja'Whaun Bentley	4	1	0.0	0	0
Terez Hall	2	3	0.0	0	2
Devin McCourty	2	2	0.0	0	0
Chase Winovich	0	3	0.0	1	1
Jason McCourty	1	2	0.0	0	1
Lawrence Guy	2	1	1.0	0	0
Justin Bethel	2	1	0.0	0	0
Adam Butler	2	0	1.0	0	1

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Herbert	26/53	209	0	2	3	-27.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Austin Ekeler	8	36	4.5	0	-1.3
Kalen Ballage	7	34	4.9	0	2.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Keenan Allen	5	11	48	21%	-7.5
Mike Williams	4	9	43	17%	0.3
Jalen Guyton	2	7	38	13%	-3.4
Austin Ekeler	4	9	32	17%	-2.6
Donald Parham	2	4	21	8%	-3.3
K.J. Hill	1	1	7	2%	0.1
Stephen Anderson	1	2	6	4%	-0.3
Kalen Ballage	3	4	5	8%	-3.0
Hunter Henry	1	2	5	4%	0.3
Joshua Kelley	2	2	3	4%	-1.1
Tyron Johnson	1	1	1	2%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kenneth Murray	12	2	1.0	0
Nick Vigil	3	7	0.0	0
Linval Joseph	4	3	0.0	0
Jerry Tillery	2	4	0.0	0
Rayshawn Jenkins	5	0	0.0	0
Justin Jones	1	3	0.0	0
Nasir Adderley	3	1	0.0	1
Michael Davis	2	2	0.0	0
Uchenna Nwosu	1	3	0.0	0
Chris Harris	2	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LAC -2.5
Closing total: 47
NE moneyline: +117
LAC moneyline: -129

Chargers closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47; the game landed 45 — under by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: NE 7 days · LAC 7 days
Coaches: Bill Belichick vs Anthony Lynn