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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 1:16 AM ET · 16 to play
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Falcons.
MarketModelmodel higher on Falconshigher on Saints175 of 189 plays carry both curves
(1:42) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep left to 11-J.Jones.
Swing −22.0 for FalconsExpected points −3.41 for FalconsThe model had Falcons 4 points higher than the market did.play 176
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 1:42NO +22% win prob(1:42) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep left to 11-J.Jones.
4th · 2:30ATL +20% win prob(2:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 11-J.Jones to NO 21 for 18 yards (43-M.Williams).
4th · 1:49NO +11% win prob(1:49) (Shotgun) 21-T.Gurley left tackle to NO 20 for -7 yards (56-D.Davis).
4th · 7:49ATL +9% win prob(7:49) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 83-R.Gage for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 4:51ATL +8% win prob(4:51) 41-A.Kamara right tackle pushed ob at ATL 38 for 37 yards (37-R.Allen).
4th · 1:55NO +7% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Tre'Quan Smith's 15-yard touchdown catch with 7:08 left in the 1st put New Orleans Saints ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
4th7:49Russell Gage·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Matt Ryanfrom Matt Ryan+721–16
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Saintscategory by categoryFalcons
Saints7–1Falcons
424Total yards332
5.7Yards per play5.3
48%Success rate35%
47%Third-down rate38%
3Red-zone touchdowns1
6Explosive plays8
22First downs16
2Sacks taken3
1Turnovers1
The read
Saints ahead 7–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.08Saints: +0.08 expected points added per play
−0.20Falcons: −0.20 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.13Saints: +0.13 expected points added per play
−0.26Falcons: −0.26 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.00Saints: +0.00 expected points added per play
−0.09Falcons: −0.09 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 75 snaps at a 57% dropback rate against Falcons’s 63 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Saints 4, Falcons 4.
NoteSaints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.20.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 13Against their seasonFourth Down
NO's fourth-and-short go rate, 40.0%, is past their previous high of 28.6% in week 8 — the highest of their 6 charted games through week 13.
5 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 9 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 13.0 points.
NO's pass rate over expected turned over: −23.8 pts in week 12 against +0.4 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
75 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · +2.0 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Falcons9.3%
inside their normal wobble · −4.0 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−0.69× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNO's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 40.0%, 19.6 points above their season mean of 20.4% and 1.5 times their own 13.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 8 inactive · 1 never used
71Ryan RamczykT · Every snap100%78 snaps
74James HurstG · Every snap100%78 snaps
62Nick EastonG · Every snap100%78 snaps
75Andrus PeatG · Every snap100%78 snaps
78Erik McCoyC · Every snap100%78 snaps
7Taysom HillQB · Every snap100%78 snaps
10Tre'Quan SmithWR · Full-time81%63 snaps
17Emmanuel SandersWR · Heavy rotation63%49 snaps
41Alvin KamaraRB · Heavy rotation62%48 snaps
13Michael ThomasWR · Heavy rotation60%47 snaps
89Josh HillTE · Heavy rotation54%42 snaps
28Latavius MurrayRB · Rotational41%32 snaps
87Jared CookTE · Rotational36%28 snaps
82Adam TrautmanTE · Rotational35%27 snaps
83Juwan JohnsonWR · Rotational26%20 snaps
64Will ClappC · Situational21%16 snaps
32Michael BurtonFB · Situational18%14 snaps
14Tommylee LewisWR · Situational5%4 snaps
Inactive · 8
Grant HaleyCBJanoris JenkinsCBMarcus DavenportDEMalcolm RoachDTTrevor SiemianQBTy MontgomeryRBGarrett GriffinTEDeonte HarrisWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Falcons attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Falcons→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Ryan pass−27% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:42) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep left to 11-J.Jones.
Q4 1:42 · Falcons · 4th & 9 at NO 20 · gained nothing · -3.41 EP · −26.6% win probability
173 snaps placed · 16 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 189 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 189 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was NO moving 87 yards from the NO 13 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; ATL attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
189 of 189 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
189
EPA per play
-0.06
Success rate
38%
Yards
756
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.0068%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR34+0.4047%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.0464%
Falcons0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR8-1.50100%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.4233%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR6-0.3017%
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.5680%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.270%
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR5+0.2960%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Falcons1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
189 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
189 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 31
Punt4 plays, from the Saints 7 to the Saints 11
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 47 to the Saints 49
Saints6Falcons0
Saints7Falcons0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Saints 13 to the Falcons 15
Saints7Falcons3
Field goal8 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Saints 33
The period ended11 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Falcons 34
2nd quarter56 plays
No good9 plays, from the Falcons 36 to the Falcons 16
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 30 to the Falcons 32
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Saints 32 to the Falcons 36
Saints7Falcons6
Field goal8 plays, from the Falcons 36 to the Saints 11
Saints13Falcons6
Saints14Falcons6
Touchdown12 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Falcons 11
Saints14Falcons9
Field goal15 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Saints 10
3rd quarter37 plays
Saints20Falcons9
Saints21Falcons9
Touchdown14 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Falcons 11
Punt8 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Saints 44
Punt9 plays, from the Saints 10 to the Falcons 47
Punt4 plays, from the Falcons 13 to the Falcons 15
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter54 plays
Punt4 plays
Fumble lost2 plays
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Falcons 18 to the Falcons 5
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.5 seconds
Saints21Falcons15
Saints21Falcons16
Touchdown11 plays, from the Falcons 15 to the Saints 10
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 46
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runPostCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne tight end and four receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Falcons 15 to the Saints 13
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Saints 26
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, one linebacker and seven backsCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
The period ended4 plays, from the Falcons 39 to the Saints 39
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
