2020 Week 13 · Sun, Dec 6, 2020 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium

New Orleans SaintsWinner

Atlanta Falcons

NO -2.5 ✓U 46 ✓DomeSaints closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 5.

New Orleans Saints 21–16. Biggest swing: Q4 1:42, NO +22% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 1:42NO — ATL ATL ball · 4th & 9NO 73%

(1:42) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep left to 11-J.Jones.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 1:42NO +22% win prob(1:42) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep left to 11-J.Jones.
Q4 · 2:30ATL +20% win prob(2:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep middle to 11-J.Jones to NO 21 for 18 yards (43-M.Williams).
Q4 · 0:09NO +13% win prob(:09) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep middle (36-D.Swearinger).
Q4 · 1:49NO +11% win prob(1:49) (Shotgun) 21-T.Gurley left tackle to NO 20 for -7 yards (56-D.Davis).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Falcons
Offensive plays	75	63
Total yards	424 (edge)	332
Yards per play	5.7 (edge)	5.3
Expected points added / play	0.08 (edge)	-0.20
Success rate	48% (edge)	35%
Dropback rate	57%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.13 (edge)	-0.26
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.00 (edge)	-0.09
Third downs	8/17 (edge)	5/13
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	8 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	22 (edge)	16
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1	1

Saints won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.08 expected points added per play vs -0.20.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

19/39, 273 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-10.7 expected points added · -11.7% completion over expected

Passing · NO

Taysom HillTE

27/37, 232 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

2.5 expected points added · +4.7% completion over expected

Rushing · NO

Alvin KamaraRB

15 att, 88 yds, 1 TD

0.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · NO

Taysom HillTE

14 att, 83 yds, 0 TD

2.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Calvin RidleyWR

5/10 for 108 yds, 0 TD

27% of team targets · 1.8 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Michael ThomasWR

9/11 for 105 yds, 0 TD

30% of team targets · 9.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 25	5	6	1:26	Punt
2	NO	NO 7	4	4	1:26	Punt
3	ATL	ATL 47	4	4	1:34	Punt
4	NO	NO 13	8	72	3:33	Touchdown
5	ATL	ATL 25	8	40	3:06	Turnover on downs
6	NO	NO 25	16	75	6:59	Turnover on downs
7	ATL	ATL 30	4	2	0:56	Punt
8	NO	NO 32	7	32	3:20	Turnover on downs
9	ATL	ATL 36	8	52	2:49	Turnover on downs
10	NO	NO 25	9	85	3:06	Touchdown
11	ATL	ATL 25	10	48	1:45	Turnover on downs
12	NO	NO 25	14	75	5:59	Touchdown
13	ATL	ATL 25	8	31	2:56	Punt
14	NO	NO 10	9	43	5:07	Punt
15	ATL	ATL 13	4	2	0:57	Punt
16	NO	NO 45	4	3	0:17	Punt
17	ATL	ATL 15	2	0	0:10	Fumble
18	NO	ATL 18	6	8	3:25	Fumble
19	ATL	ATL 15	9	60	3:26	Touchdown
20	NO	NO 25	7	21	2:34	Punt
21	ATL	ATL 15	11	65	3:34	Turnover on downs
22	NO	NO 20	4	6	1:08	Punt
23	ATL	ATL 39	3	22	0:27	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Saints gained 85 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Taysom Hill	27/37	232	2	0	2	2.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alvin Kamara	15	88	5.9	1	0.2
Taysom Hill	14	83	5.9	0	2.3
Latavius Murray	5	17	3.4	0	-0.3
Tommylee Lewis	1	16	16.0	0	1.0
Tre'Quan Smith	1	3	3.0	0	-0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Thomas	9	11	105	0	30%	9.5
Tre'Quan Smith	3	6	42	1	16%	1.9
Emmanuel Sanders	5	6	39	0	16%	2.1
Jared Cook	3	5	28	1	14%	1.9
Alvin Kamara	2	3	9	0	8%	-1.2
Adam Trautman	3	3	9	0	8%	-1.0
Latavius Murray	2	2	0	0	5%	-2.5
Tommylee Lewis	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Demario Davis	4	5	0.0	0
Marcus Williams	5	2	0.0	1
David Onyemata	2	3	1.0	0
Marshon Lattimore	4	0	0.0	2
Kwon Alexander	3	0	0.0	2
Alex Anzalone	2	1	0.0	0
Malcolm Jenkins	3	0	0.0	0
P.J. Williams	2	0	0.0	1
Cameron Jordan	2	0	0.0	0
Shy Tuttle	2	0	0.0	0

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	19/39	273	1	0	3	-10.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Ito Smith	8	36	4.5	0.2
Brian Hill	5	18	3.6	-0.8
Todd Gurley	8	16	2.0	-1.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Calvin Ridley	5	10	108	0	27%	1.8
Julio Jones	6	10	94	0	27%	0.1
Russell Gage	4	8	51	1	22%	0.3
Brandon Powell	1	1	9	0	3%	-0.0
Hayden Hurst	1	4	9	0	11%	-0.9
Todd Gurley	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.1
Jaeden Graham	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.7
Ito Smith	1	2	-2	0	5%	-1.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Foyesade Oluokun	8	5	0.0	0
Deion Jones	8	2	0.0	0
A.J. Terrell	7	1	0.0	1
Keanu Neal	4	3	0.0	0
Tyeler Davison	4	3	0.0	0
Isaiah Oliver	3	2	0.0	1
Mykal Walker	4	1	0.0	0
John Cominsky	1	2	0.0	0
Steven Means	2	1	2.0	0
Ricardo Allen	3	0	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -2.5
Closing total: 46
NO moneyline: -141
ATL moneyline: +127

Saints closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 5.

Total closed 46; the game landed 37 — under by 9.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: NO 7 days · ATL 7 days
Coaches: Sean Payton vs Raheem Morris

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.