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New York Giants 17, Seahawks 12 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 0:54, 3rd and 10, on Russell Wilson — 16.5 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:54 · 3rd and 10
Russell Wilson
Giants
(:54) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at SEA 46 for -8 yards (99-L.Williams).
Seahawks closed -11 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
New York Giants 17–12. Biggest swing: Q4 0:54, Giants +16.5% win probability on one snap.
16.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Darnay HolmesGiantsQ4 11:27(11:27) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle intended for 32-C.Carson INTERCEPTED by 30-D.Holmes at SEA 39. 30-D.Holmes to SEA 39 for no gain (89-W.Dissly).
16.5pts
Unnamed on the sheetSeahawksQ4 1:55(1:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Touchback.
16.2pts
What separated them
Red zone
Giants won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Seahawks at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Giants won this one — +0.17 expected points per carry, against Seahawks at -0.29 expected points per carry.
Giantsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Seahawks owned this one and still lost it — 9 chunk plays, against Giants at 5 chunk plays.
Seahawksthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Every snap
Giants won this one — -0.05 expected points per snap, against Seahawks at -0.24 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 32 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Giants160 of 171 plays carry both curves
(:54) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at SEA 46 for -8 yards (99-L.Williams).
Swing −16.5 for SeahawksExpected points −1.59 for SeahawksThe model had Giants 5 points higher than the market did.play 166
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:54NYG +17% win prob(:54) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at SEA 46 for -8 yards (99-L.Williams).
4th · 11:27NYG +16% win prob(11:27) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle intended for 32-C.Carson INTERCEPTED by 30-D.Holmes at SEA 39. 30-D.Holmes to SEA 39 for no gain (89-W.Dissly).
4th · 1:55NYG +16% win prob(1:55) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Touchback.
4th · 0:48NYG +11% win prob(:48) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep right (24-J.Bradberry) [95-B.Hill].
3rd · 7:43SEA +10% win prob(7:43) 41-A.Morris left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 0:52NYG +9% win prob(:52) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at SEA 27 for -15 yards (99-L.Williams).
3rd · 9:04SEA +8% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Alfred Morris's 4-yard rushing touchdown with 7:43 left in the 3rd put New York Giants ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:55Jason Myers·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+30–3
2nd0:33Seahawks·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+20–5
3rd7:43Alfred Morris·4-yd TD run4-yard rushing touchdowntwo-point goodLead never changed again+88–5
4th9:55Graham Gano·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap C.Kreiter+317–5
4th6:15Chris Carson·28-yd TD catch28-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+717–12
6 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Giantscategory by categorySeahawks
Giants4–5Seahawks
293Total yards327
5.3Yards per play4.7
36%Success rate43%
25%Third-down rate31%
2Red-zone touchdowns0
5Explosive plays9
14First downs19
2Sacks taken5
1Turnovers2
The read
Seahawks ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Giants, in red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.05Giants: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.24Seahawks: −0.24 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.29Giants: −0.29 expected points added per play
−0.23Seahawks: −0.23 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.17Giants: +0.17 expected points added per play
−0.29Seahawks: −0.29 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Giants ran 55 snaps at a 47% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 70 at 77%. Red-zone trips: Giants 3, Seahawks 3.
NoteSeahawks outgained Giants 327-293 but lost the turnover battle 2-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
SEA's early-down pass rate turned over: 53.1% in week 12 against 76.4% here — they ran early then and passed early now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
55 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -17 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · +0.8 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (+0.13× that swing) · 54 dropbacks
Seahawks15.4%
right on their number · +0.5 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYG's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 33.3%, 22.4 points below their season mean of 55.7% and 1.8 times their own 12.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Giants attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Giants←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.McCoy pass−18% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(2:31) (Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass short left intended for 88-E.Engram INTERCEPTED by 37-Q.Diggs (35-R.Neal) at SEA 4. 37-Q.Diggs pushed ob at SEA 36 for 32 yards (12-C.McCoy).
Q1 2:31 · Giants · 3rd & 8 at SEA 17 · gained nothing · -5.70 EP · −17.6% win probability
158 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 171 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 82 yards from the SEA 18 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, NYG attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
171 of 171 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
171
EPA per play
-0.13
Success rate
38%
Yards
619
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR57-0.2672%
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR16+0.2119%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR15-0.6180%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11+0.2245%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.1856%
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6+0.2817%
Giants0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Seahawks1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR3——
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Seahawks1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Giants0Seahawks3
Field goal10 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Giants 13
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 23 to the Giants 30
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 34 to the Seahawks 40
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Intercepted11 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Seahawks 16
The period ended5 plays, from the Seahawks 36 to the Giants 45
2nd quarter45 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 41 to the Giants 37
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 9 to the Giants 24
Offense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Seahawks 28 to the Giants 47
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 48 to the Seahawks 47
Punt10 plays, from the Seahawks 8 to the Giants 36
Giants0Seahawks5
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 5 to the Giants 11
The period ended5 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 44
Punt5 plays, from the Seahawks 21 to the Seahawks 40
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Giants6Seahawks5
Giants8Seahawks5
Touchdown5 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Seahawks 4
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.5 seconds
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 48
Giants14Seahawks5
Touchdown6 plays, from the Seahawks 48 to the Seahawks 6
The period ended7 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Seahawks 42
4th quarter51 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Seahawks 22 to the Seahawks 34
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Giants 27
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Giants17Seahawks5
Field goal5 plays, from the Seahawks 39 to the Seahawks 30
Giants17Seahawks11
Giants17Seahawks12
Touchdown15 plays, from the Seahawks 18 to the Giants 28
Punt10 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Seahawks 41
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw6.9 seconds
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Seahawks 20 to the Giants 46
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
