For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 8.6 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 25 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Eagles.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Eagles154 of 163 plays carry both curves
(8:33) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +6.5 for PackersExpected points +2.50 for PackersThe model had Eagles 15 points higher than the market did.play 45
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 8:33GB +6% win prob(8:33) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 2:02PHI +6% win prob(2:02) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz sacked at GB 41 for -8 yards (96-K.Keke).
2nd · 1:05GB +6% win prob(1:05) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep right to 85-R.Tonyan for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 6:48PHI +6% win prob(6:48) 6-J.Scott punts 52 yards to PHI 27, Center-43-H.Bradley. 18-J.Reagor MUFFS catch, and recovers at PHI 27. 18-J.Reagor for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB-24-R.Greene was injured during the play.
4th · 2:51GB +5% win prob(2:51) 33-A.Jones up the middle for 77 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 10:13GB +5% win prob(10:13) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz to GB 34 for 11 yards (26-D.Savage).
2nd · 10:37
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Davante Adams's 1-yard touchdown catch with 8:33 left in the 2nd put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st7:58Jake Elliott·52-yd field goal52-yard field goalholder C.Johnston · snap R.Lovato+33–0
Packers ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.43 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.10Eagles: −0.10 expected points added per play
+0.32Packers: +0.32 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.11Eagles: −0.11 expected points added per play
+0.43Packers: +0.43 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.10Eagles: −0.10 expected points added per play
+0.13Packers: +0.13 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Eagles ran 59 snaps at a 69% dropback rate against Packers’s 58 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Eagles 1, Packers 4.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.32 expected points added per play vs -0.10.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 13Against their seasonTendencies
GB's sack or hit rate, 24.4%, is past their previous high of 15.8% in week 2 — the highest of their 12 charted games through week 13.
2.5 times their own weekly swing above their number.
41 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.7 points.
GB's pass rate over expected turned over: −5.3 pts in week 12 against +11.1 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.7 of their own weekly swings across the two.
58 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
PHI's pass rate over expected turned over: +8.4 pts in week 12 against −3.2 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.9 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · −1.1 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (−0.14× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Packers24.4%
off script — got home · +11.5 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (+2.46× that swing) · 41 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteGB's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 24.4%, 11.5 points above their season mean of 12.9% and 2.5 times their own 4.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Eagles attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Eagles←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Scott punts−9% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(6:48) 6-J.Scott punts 52 yards to PHI 27, Center-43-H.Bradley. 18-J.Reagor MUFFS catch, and recovers at PHI 27. 18-J.Reagor for 73 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB-24-R.Greene was injured during the play.
Q4 6:48 · Packers · 4th & 12 at GB 21 · gained nothing · -5.29 EP · −9.4% win probability
152 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 19 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 19 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 99 yards from the GB 1 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, PHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
+0.08
Success rate
41%
Yards
715
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.1756%
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR40+0.1470%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR16-0.0663%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.6738%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Eagles3Packers0
Field goal17 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Packers 34
Punt5 plays
Punt7 plays, from the Eagles 38 to the Packers 30
The period ended3 plays, from the Packers 12 to the Packers 13
2nd quarter39 plays
Eagles3Packers6
Eagles3Packers7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Packers 37 to the Eagles 1
Punt8 plays, from the Eagles 10 to the Eagles 24
Eagles3Packers13
Eagles3Packers14
Touchdown8 plays, from the Packers 18 to the Eagles 25
The period ended10 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 47
3rd quarter36 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 33 to the Packers 36
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 10 to the Packers 49
Eagles3Packers20
Touchdown8 plays, from the Packers 1 to the Eagles 9
Punt9 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Packers 35
The period ended9 plays, from the Packers 6 to the Eagles 47
4th quarter55 plays
Eagles3Packers23
Field goal7 plays, from the Eagles 40 to the Eagles 22
Eagles9Packers23
Eagles10Packers23
Touchdown12 plays, from the Eagles 27 to the Packers 22
Eagles16Packers23
Touchdown6 plays, from the Packers 23 to the Packers 26
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 22 to the Packers 23
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 31 to the Eagles 41
Eagles16Packers29
Eagles16Packers30
Touchdown4 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Packers 23
Intercepted5 plays, from midfield to the Packers 33
The period ended9 plays, from the Packers 34 to the Packers 45
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
