2020 Week 13 · Mon, Dec 7, 2020 · Heinz Field

Washington CommandersWinner

Pittsburgh Steelers

PIT -5.5 upsetU 43.5 ✓Steelers closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Washington Commanders 23–17. Biggest swing: Q4 2:04, WAS +30% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:04WAS — PIT PIT ball · 1st & 10WAS 62%

(2:04) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle intended for 85-E.Ebron INTERCEPTED by 53-J.Bostic (90-M.Sweat) at PIT 25. 53-J.Bostic to PIT 25 for no gain (60-J.Hassenauer).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:04WAS +30% win prob(2:04) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle intended for 85-E.Ebron INTERCEPTED by 53-J.Bostic (90-M.Sweat) at PIT 25. 53-J.Bostic to PIT 25 for no gain (60-J.Hassenauer).
Q4 · 3:10PIT +21% win prob(3:10) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep right to 89-C.Sims to PIT 27 for 29 yards (20-C.Sutton).
Q4 · 4:57WAS +17% win prob(4:57) (Shotgun) 65-J.Hawkins reported in as eligible. 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep right to 26-A.McFarland. Coverage 53-Bostic.
Q4 · 9:14PIT +15% win prob(9:14) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 82-L.Thomas for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-T.Watt].

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Commanders	Steelers
Offensive plays	70	67
Total yards	318	326 (edge)
Yards per play	4.5	4.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.08 (edge)	-0.16
Success rate	34%	37% (edge)
Dropback rate	70%	79%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.01 (edge)	-0.04
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.29 (edge)	-0.58
Third downs	4/17	6/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	4
First downs gained on snaps	16 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	3	0 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Steelers outgained Commanders 326–318 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

33/53, 305 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

-2.3 expected points added · -6.6% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Alex SmithQB

31/46, 296 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

0.3 expected points added · +0.7% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

Peyton BarberRB

14 att, 23 yds, 1 TD

-2.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · WAS

J.D. McKissicRB

5 att, 8 yds, 0 TD

-4.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · WAS

Logan ThomasTE

9/9 for 98 yds, 1 TD

20% of team targets · 4.6 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Cam SimsWR

5/9 for 92 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 4.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 25	5	9	1:35	Punt
2	WAS	WAS 14	5	21	1:34	Punt
3	PIT	PIT 20	4	0	2:06	Punt
4	WAS	WAS 25	8	19	4:18	Punt
5	PIT	PIT 23	6	36	2:38	Punt
6	WAS	WAS 9	4	3	1:00	Punt
7	PIT	PIT 28	15	77	6:16	Touchdown
8	WAS	WAS 25	5	16	1:31	Turnover on downs
9	PIT	WAS 31	8	30	3:27	Turnover on downs
10	WAS	WAS 1	4	6	1:32	Punt
11	PIT	50	2	50	0:09	Touchdown
12	WAS	WAS 33	7	21	2:05	Punt
13	PIT	PIT 10	4	9	0:59	Punt
14	WAS	WAS 41	6	28	0:49	Turnover on downs
15	PIT	—	1	0	0:01	End of half
16	WAS	WAS 18	16	95	6:44	Touchdown
17	PIT	PIT 25	7	2	2:29	Punt
18	WAS	WAS 34	4	7	1:27	Punt
19	PIT	PIT 18	11	59	4:23	Turnover on downs
20	WAS	WAS 30	5	6	1:41	Punt
21	PIT	PIT 10	4	-2	0:53	Punt
22	WAS	WAS 47	9	53	3:14	Touchdown
23	PIT	PIT 38	10	34	4:16	Turnover on downs
24	WAS	WAS 28	9	45	2:49	Turnover on downs
25	PIT	PIT 25	2	0	0:05	Interception
26	WAS	PIT 25	4	-2	1:42	Turnover on downs
27	PIT	PIT 25	3	22	0:17	End of game

0 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 95 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Alex Smith	31/46	296	1	0	3	0.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Peyton Barber	14	23	1.6	1	-2.4
Antonio Gibson	2	14	7.0	0	0.3
J.D. McKissic	5	8	1.6	0	-4.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Logan Thomas	9	9	98	1	20%	4.6
Cam Sims	5	9	92	0	20%	4.9
J.D. McKissic	10	10	70	0	23%	4.6
Steven Sims	4	6	17	0	14%	-1.2
Terry McLaurin	2	6	14	0	14%	-4.5
Isaiah Wright	1	4	5	0	9%	-2.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Cole Holcomb	4	5	0	0
Jon Bostic	3	6	1	1
Kamren Curl	4	1	0	0
Jimmy Moreland	3	1	0	0
Montez Sweat	1	3	0	3
Deshazor Everett	2	2	0	2
Kendall Fuller	3	0	0	0
Daron Payne	2	1	0	1
Kevin Pierre-Louis	3	0	0	0
Ronald Darby	3	0	0	1

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	33/53	305	2	1	0	-2.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Anthony McFarland	4	15	3.8	-0.2
Benny Snell	8	5	0.6	-6.1
Jaylen Samuels	1	1	1.0	-0.2
Ben Roethlisberger	1	0	0.0	-1.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
James Washington	2	4	80	1	8%	6.1
Diontae Johnson	8	12	71	1	23%	3.2
Eric Ebron	7	11	68	0	21%	-6.4
Chase Claypool	2	4	38	0	8%	4.3
JuJu Smith-Schuster	7	10	28	0	19%	-2.5
Jaylen Samuels	3	4	11	0	8%	-0.9
Benny Snell	2	3	5	0	6%	-0.5
Ray-Ray McCloud	2	3	4	0	6%	-1.3
Anthony McFarland	0	1	0	0	2%	-3.5
Jerald Hawkins	0	1	0	0	2%	-1.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Avery Williamson	5	3	0.0	0
Justin Layne	5	2	0.0	0
Vince Williams	3	4	0.0	0
Mike Hilton	5	1	0.0	1
Alex Highsmith	2	3	0.0	0
T.J. Watt	3	1	1.0	0
Terrell Edmunds	2	2	0.0	1
Joe Haden	3	1	0.0	1
Cameron Sutton	3	0	0.0	1
Robert Spillane	2	1	1.0	2

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: PIT -5.5
Closing total: 43.5
WAS moneyline: +231
PIT moneyline: -265

Steelers closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 40 — under by 3.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Heinz Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 34°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: WAS 11 days · PIT 5 days
Coaches: Ron Rivera vs Mike Tomlin