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Game Center
polling · 300s tick · as of 3:19 AM ET · 15 to play · 1 final
Washington Commanders 23 at Pittsburgh Steelers 17. Final.
Steelers -5.5 upset
The verdict · 2020 Week 13
Washington Commanders 23, Steelers 17 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 2:04, 1st and 10, on Jon Bostic — 30.4 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
U 43.5 ✓
32°F
Steelers closed -5.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Washington Commanders 23–17. Biggest swing: Q4 2:04, Commanders +30.4% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:04 · 1st and 10
Jon Bostic
Commanders
(2:04) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle intended for 85-E.Ebron INTERCEPTED by 53-J.Bostic (90-M.Sweat) at PIT 25. 53-J.Bostic to PIT 25 for no gain (60-J.Hassenauer).
30.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Ben RoethlisbergerCommandersQ4 4:57(4:57) (Shotgun) 65-J.Hawkins reported in as eligible. 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep right to 26-A.McFarland. Coverage 53-Bostic.
17.2pts
Cam SimsCommandersQ4 3:10(3:10) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep right to 89-C.Sims to PIT 27 for 29 yards (20-C.Sutton).
20.6pts
What separated them
Red zone
Commanders won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Steelers at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Commanders won this one — -0.29 expected points per carry, against Steelers at -0.58 expected points per carry.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — 6 of 15 on third down, against Commanders at 4 of 17 on third down.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Commanders won this one — no giveaways, against Steelers at 1 giveaway.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 6.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Steelershigher on Commanders181 of 192 plays carry both curves
(2:04) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle intended for 85-E.Ebron INTERCEPTED by 53-J.Bostic (90-M.Sweat) at PIT 25. 53-J.Bostic to PIT 25 for no gain (60-J.Hassenauer).
Swing −30.4 for SteelersExpected points −4.52 for SteelersThe model had Commanders 4 points higher than the market did.play 182
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:04WAS +30% win prob(2:04) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle intended for 85-E.Ebron INTERCEPTED by 53-J.Bostic (90-M.Sweat) at PIT 25. 53-J.Bostic to PIT 25 for no gain (60-J.Hassenauer).
4th · 3:10PIT +21% win prob(3:10) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep right to 89-C.Sims to PIT 27 for 29 yards (20-C.Sutton).
4th · 4:57WAS +17% win prob(4:57) (Shotgun) 65-J.Hawkins reported in as eligible. 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete deep right to 26-A.McFarland. Coverage 53-Bostic.
4th · 9:14PIT +15% win prob(9:14) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 82-L.Thomas for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-T.Watt].
4th · 2:11WAS +10% win prob(2:11) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass incomplete short right to 89-C.Sims (34-Te.Edmunds).
2nd · 14:12PIT +9% win prob(14:12) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 18-D.Johnson pushed ob at WAS 33 for 17 yards (53-J.Bostic).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Dustin Hopkins's 45-yard field goal with 2:07 left in the 4th put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
Lead
2nd10:37Diontae Johnson·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger+70–7
2nd4:03James Washington·50-yd TD catch50-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger+70–14
2nd0:05Dustin Hopkins·49-yd field goal49-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap N.Sundberg+33–14
4th15:00Matthew Wright·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder J.Berry · snap K.Canaday+310–17
4th9:14Logan Thomas·15-yd TD catch15-yard touchdown catchfrom Alex Smithfrom Alex Smith+717–17
4th2:07Dustin Hopkins·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap N.SundbergLead never changed again+320–17
4th0:21Dustin Hopkins·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder T.Way · snap N.Sundberg+323–17
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Commanderscategory by categorySteelers
Commanders4–5Steelers
318Total yards326
4.5Yards per play4.9
34%Success rate37%
24%Third-down rate40%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays4
16First downs14
3Sacks taken0
0Turnovers1
The read
Steelers ahead 5–4 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.58 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.08Commanders: −0.08 expected points added per play
−0.16Steelers: −0.16 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.01Commanders: +0.01 expected points added per play
−0.04Steelers: −0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.29Commanders: −0.29 expected points added per play
−0.58Steelers: −0.58 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 70 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Steelers’s 67 at 79%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 3, Steelers 4.
NoteSteelers outgained Commanders 326-318 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Too few to read
2 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor in this game, which is under the three this column needs before it will draw the rule. The readings themselves stand.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
PIT's early-down pass rate, 78.0%, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 13 — 1.6 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 75.0% in week 9.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 12.0 points. · +1.4σ from their own normal
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekOver Expected
PIT's pass rate over expected, +19.2 pts, was the highest of the 30 team-games charted in week 13 — 1.4 points clear of the next team along.
67 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.3 points. · +1.2σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 33 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −12.0 vs their 15.7%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (−1.42× that swing) · 53 dropbacks
Steelers20.4%
right on their number · −2.7 vs their 23.1%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−0.35× that swing) · 49 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePIT's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 78.0%, 17.1 points above their season mean of 60.9% and 1.4 times their own 12.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Washington Commanders
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
71Wes SchweitzerG · Every snap100%72 snaps
76Morgan MosesT · Every snap100%72 snaps
82Logan ThomasTE · Every snap100%72 snaps
78Cornelius LucasT · Every snap100%72 snaps
11Alex SmithQB · Every snap100%72 snaps
73Chase RoullierC · Every snap100%72 snaps
75Brandon ScherffG · Full-time97%70 snaps
17Terry McLaurinWR · Full-time94%68 snaps
89Cam SimsWR · Full-time86%62 snaps
41J.D. McKissicRB · Heavy rotation74%53 snaps
83Isaiah WrightWR · Rotational40%29 snaps
34Peyton BarberRB · Rotational33%24 snaps
15Steven SimsWR · Rotational31%22 snaps
87Jeremy SprinkleTE · Situational18%13 snaps
80Dontrelle InmanWR · Situational14%10 snaps
67Wes MartinG · Situational7%5 snaps
24Antonio GibsonRB · Situational6%4 snaps
Inactive · 5
Ryan AndersonDECole LukeFSJordan KunaszykILBRobert FosterWRJeff BadetWR
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Dwayne HaskinsQB
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
78Alejandro VillanuevaT · Every snap100%71 snaps
66David DeCastroG · Every snap100%71 snaps
76Chukwuma OkoraforT · Every snap100%71 snaps
71Matt FeilerT · Every snap100%71 snaps
7Ben RoethlisbergerQB · Every snap100%71 snaps
60J.C. HassenauerC · Every snap100%71 snaps
19JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Full-time86%61 snaps
18Diontae JohnsonWR · Full-time80%57 snaps
85Eric EbronTE · Full-time80%57 snaps
13James WashingtonWR · Heavy rotation54%38 snaps
24Benny SnellRB · Rotational46%33 snaps
11Chase ClaypoolWR · Rotational44%31 snaps
89Vance McDonaldTE · Rotational39%28 snaps
38Jaylen SamuelsRB · Rotational38%27 snaps
26Anthony McFarlandRB · Situational15%11 snaps
14Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Situational7%5 snaps
65Jerald HawkinsT · Situational6%4 snaps
44Derek WattFB · Situational4%3 snaps
Inactive · 6
Steven NelsonCBCarlos DavisDTChris BoswellKJoshua DobbsQBDerwin GrayTKevin RaderTE
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Steelers attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←Steelers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Roethlisberger pass−28% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(2:04) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle intended for 85-E.Ebron INTERCEPTED by 53-J.Bostic (90-M.Sweat) at PIT 25. 53-J.Bostic to PIT 25 for no gain (60-J.Hassenauer).
Q4 2:04 · Steelers · 1st & 10 at PIT 25 · gained nothing · -4.52 EP · −27.8% win probability
179 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 192 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 192 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was WAS moving 95 yards from the WAS 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PIT attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
192 of 192 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
192
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
36%
Yards
644
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR53+0.0083%
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR50-0.0984%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.0533%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8-0.2275%
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.0257%
Steelers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Steelers2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Commanders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
192 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
192 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 34
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 14 to the Commanders 35
Punt5 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Steelers 41
Punt6 plays, from the Steelers 23 to the Commanders 40
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 9 to the Commanders 12
The period ended5 plays, from the Steelers 28 to midfield
2nd quarter56 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Commanders0Steelers6
Commanders0Steelers7
Touchdown12 plays, from the Commanders 48 to the Commanders 3
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 34
Turnover on downs9 plays, from the Commanders 31 to the Commanders 1
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 1 to the Commanders 7
Commanders0Steelers13
Commanders0Steelers14
Touchdown2 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Commanders 33 to the Steelers 46
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 10 to the Steelers 19
Commanders3Steelers14
Field goal7 plays, from the Commanders 41 to the Steelers 17
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter44 plays
Commanders9Steelers14
Commanders10Steelers14
Touchdown19 plays, from the Commanders 18 to the Steelers 1
Punt8 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 32
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 34 to the Commanders 41
The period ended13 plays, from the Steelers 18 to the Commanders 24
4th quarter52 plays
Commanders10Steelers17
Field goal1 play
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 30 to the Commanders 36
Punt4 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, four linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.8 seconds
Commanders16Steelers17
Commanders17Steelers17
Touchdown9 plays, from the Commanders 47 to the Steelers 15
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Steelers 38 to the Commanders 28
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, two linebackers and seven backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.3 seconds
Commanders20Steelers17
Field goal11 plays, from the Commanders 28 to the Steelers 25
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
Intercepted2 plays
Commanders23Steelers17
Field goal6 plays
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Commanderscategory by categorySteelers
Commanders0
Steelers6
