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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Arizona Cardinals 26, Giants 7 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 13:08, 2nd and 10, on Daniel Jones — 18.0 win-probability points to the Cardinals on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 13:08 · 2nd and 10
Daniel Jones
Cardinals
(13:08) (No Huddle) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 44 for -6 yards (44-M.Golden). FUMBLES (44-M.Golden) [44-M.Golden], RECOVERED by ARI-44-M.Golden at NYG 39. 44-M.Golden to NYG 9 for 30 yards (22-W.Gallman Jr.; 85-L.Toilolo). ARI-97-J.Phillips was injured during the play.
Cardinals closed -3 and covered, winning by 19.
Arizona Cardinals 26–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 13:08, Cardinals +18.0% win probability on one snap.
18.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kyler MurrayGiantsQ1 10:49(10:49) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right to 19-K.Johnson (24-J.Bradberry).
8.0pts
Unnamed on the sheetCardinalsQ2 8:242-M.Nugent kicks 65 yards from ARI 35 to NYG 0. 33-D.Lewis to NYG 15 for 15 yards (49-K.Fitts). FUMBLES (49-K.Fitts), RECOVERED by ARI-16-T.Sherfield at NYG 21.
8.7pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Cardinals won this one — no giveaways, against Giants at 3 giveaways.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Giants owned this one and still lost it — 1 touchdown on 1 trip, against Cardinals at 2 touchdowns on 7 trips.
Giantsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Cardinals won this one — +0.16 expected points per dropback, against Giants at -0.54 expected points per dropback.
Cardinalsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cardinals won this one — +0.05 expected points per snap, against Giants at -0.37 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.3 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 17 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Cardinals163 of 176 plays carry both curves
(13:08) (No Huddle) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 44 for -6 yards (44-M.Golden). FUMBLES (44-M.Golden) [44-M.Golden], RECOVERED by ARI-44-M.Golden at NYG 39. 44-M.Golden to NYG 9 for 30 yards (22-W.Gallman Jr.; 85-L.Toilolo).
Swing −18.0 for GiantsExpected points −7.77 for GiantsThe model had Giants 15 points higher than the market did.play 7
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 13:08ARI +18% win prob(13:08) (No Huddle) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 44 for -6 yards (44-M.Golden). FUMBLES (44-M.Golden) [44-M.Golden], RECOVERED by ARI-44-M.Golden at NYG 39. 44-M.Golden to NYG 9 for 30 yards (22-W.Gallman Jr.; 85-L.Toilolo). ARI-97-J.Phillips was injured during the play.
2nd · 8:24ARI +9% win prob2-M.Nugent kicks 65 yards from ARI 35 to NYG 0. 33-D.Lewis to NYG 15 for 15 yards (49-K.Fitts). FUMBLES (49-K.Fitts), RECOVERED by ARI-16-T.Sherfield at NYG 21.
1st · 10:49ARI +8% win prob(10:49) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short right to 19-K.Johnson (24-J.Bradberry).
2nd · 10:53NYG +5% win prob(10:53) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 85-D.Arnold to NYG 14 for 20 yards (29-X.McKinney; 23-L.Ryan).
2nd · 12:35NYG +5% win prob(12:35) (Shotgun) 41-K.Drake up the middle to NYG 41 for 3 yards (49-C.Coughlin).
1st · 4:05ARI +4% win prob(4:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 33 for -3 yards (45-D.Gardeck).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Mike Nugent's 34-yard field goal with 6:34 left in the 1st put Arizona Cardinals ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st6:34Mike Nugent·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.BrewerLead never changed again+33–0
2nd8:28Mike Nugent·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.Brewer+36–0
4th12:42Mike Nugent·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.Brewer+323–7
4th2:44Mike Nugent·30-yd field goal30-yard field goalholder A.Lee · snap A.Brewer+326–7
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cardinalscategory by categoryGiants
Cardinals9–0Giants
395Total yards159
5.2Yards per play3.2
42%Success rate31%
41%Third-down rate25%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
9Explosive plays4
22First downs10
1Sacks taken8
0Turnovers3
The read
Cardinals ahead 9–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.54 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.05Cardinals: +0.05 expected points added per play
−0.37Giants: −0.37 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.16Cardinals: +0.16 expected points added per play
−0.54Giants: −0.54 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.11Cardinals: −0.11 expected points added per play
−0.05Giants: −0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cardinals ran 76 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Giants’s 49 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Cardinals 7, Giants 1.
NoteCardinals won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs -0.37.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
ARI's sack or hit rate, 34.4%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 14 — 5.3 points clear of the next team along.
Past their previous high of 23.1% in week 2.
2.7 times their own weekly swing above their number.
A 3.0-swing turn from week 13.
32 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.5 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -18 pts to 15 pts
off script — got home · +17.8 vs their 16.6%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (+2.72× that swing) · 32 dropbacks
Giants9.1%
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.7 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteARI's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 34.4%, 17.8 points above their season mean of 16.6% and 2.7 times their own 6.5-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Cardinals attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cardinals←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Jones sacked−20% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(13:08) (No Huddle) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 44 for -6 yards (44-M.Golden). FUMBLES (44-M.Golden) [44-M.Golden], RECOVERED by ARI-44-M.Golden at NYG 39. 44-M.Golden to NYG 9 for 30 yards (22-W.Gallman Jr.; 85-L.Toilolo). ARI-97-J.Phillips was injured during the play.
Q1 13:08 · Giants · 2nd & 10 at 50 · lost 11 · -7.77 EP · −19.7% win probability
161 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 24 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 24 drives ended in points. The longest march was ARI moving 77 yards from the ARI 23 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, ARI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
-0.17
Success rate
34%
Yards
549
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Cardinals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37+0.1754%
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28-0.4079%
Cardinals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR27-0.0830%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.0543%
Cardinals1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR6+0.1267%
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR5-1.6460%
Cardinals2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR3——
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Cardinals2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Cardinals1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, four linebackers and three backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSix
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Giants 25 to midfield
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxNine defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw5.3 seconds
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Giants 9 to the Giants 1
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 1 to the Giants 8
Cardinals3Giants0
Field goal6 plays, from the Giants 38 to the Giants 16
Punt7 plays, from the Giants 21 to the Giants 36
Punt7 plays, from the Cardinals 8 to the Cardinals 41
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter52 plays
Punt3 plays
Cardinals6Giants0
Field goal13 plays, from the Cardinals 47 to the Giants 14
Fumble lost1 play
Cardinals12Giants0
Cardinals13Giants0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Giants 21 to the Giants 6
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 29 to the Giants 49
Punt8 plays, from the Cardinals 20 to the Giants 32
Punt6 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Giants 24
The period ended6 plays, from the Cardinals 43 to the Giants 37
3rd quarter39 plays
Cardinals19Giants0
Cardinals20Giants0
Touchdown14 plays, from the Cardinals 23 to the Giants 1
Cardinals20Giants6
Cardinals20Giants7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Cardinals 1
Punt9 plays, from the Cardinals 25 to the Giants 39
Punt4 plays, from the Giants 7 to the Giants 16
The period ended3 plays, from midfield to the Giants 47
4th quarter48 plays
Cardinals23Giants7
Field goal6 plays, from the Giants 40 to the Giants 16
Punt5 plays, from the Giants 26 to the Giants 32
Punt6 plays, from the Cardinals 28 to the Giants 30
Punt9 plays, from the Giants 7 to the Giants 26
Cardinals26Giants7
Field goal12 plays, from the Giants 33 to the Giants 12
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Giants 23 to the Giants 36
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Cardinalscategory by categoryGiants
Cardinals3
Giants0
