2020 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 13, 2020 · SoFi Stadium

Atlanta Falcons

Los Angeles ChargersWinner

LAC -1 ✓U 49 ✓DomeChargers closed -1 and covered, winning by 3.

Los Angeles Chargers 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:53, ATL +33% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 0:53ATL — LAC LAC ball · 3rd & 2LAC 72%

(:53) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 33-B.Wreh-Wilson at ATL 38. 33-B.Wreh-Wilson to ATL 38 for no gain (15-J.Guyton).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 0:53ATL +33% win prob(:53) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 33-B.Wreh-Wilson at ATL 38. 33-B.Wreh-Wilson to ATL 38 for no gain (15-J.Guyton).
Q4 · 0:36ATL +32% win prob(:36) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right intended for 18-C.Ridley INTERCEPTED by 43-M.Davis at LAC 33. 43-M.Davis ran ob at LAC 41 for 8 yards. PENALTY on LAC-97-J.Bosa, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 41.
Q4 · 0:03LAC +20% win prob(:03) 4-M.Badgley 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.
Q4 · 3:52ATL +18% win prob(3:52) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right intended for 81-H.Hurst INTERCEPTED by 36-J.Addae at LAC 22. 36-J.Addae to LAC 25 for 3 yards (25-I.Smith).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Falcons	Chargers
Offensive plays	55	71
Total yards	319	345 (edge)
Yards per play	5.8 (edge)	4.9
Expected points added / play	0.01	0.05 (edge)
Success rate	49%	49% (edge)
Dropback rate	65%	63%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.04	0.12 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.05 (edge)	-0.06
Third downs	9/12 (edge)	9/15
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	5 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	17	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	1 (edge)
Turnovers	3	1 (edge)

Chargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs 0.01.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LAC

Justin HerbertQB

36/44, 243 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

5.2 expected points added · +8.6% completion over expected

Passing · ATL

Matt RyanQB

21/32, 224 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

-3.4 expected points added · -0.7% completion over expected

Rushing · LAC

Austin EkelerRB

15 att, 79 yds, 0 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · ATL

Ito SmithRB

11 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

-1.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · ATL

Calvin RidleyWR

8/12 for 124 yds, 1 TD

38% of team targets · 2.9 expected points added

Receiving · ATL

Russell GageWR

5/7 for 82 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 4.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	ATL	ATL 25	5	7	1:30	Punt
2	LAC	LAC 17	16	88	9:33	Touchdown
3	ATL	ATL 25	9	70	3:36	Touchdown
4	LAC	LAC 19	6	15	1:48	Punt
5	ATL	ATL 33	8	40	3:46	Turnover on downs
6	LAC	ATL 23	5	6	1:34	Turnover on downs
7	ATL	ATL 25	10	75	3:22	Touchdown
8	LAC	LAC 25	17	67	4:51	End of half
9	LAC	LAC 24	5	-2	1:07	Punt
10	ATL	ATL 22	8	30	4:22	Interception
11	LAC	LAC 20	14	85	8:21	Touchdown
12	ATL	ATL 25	10	37	3:45	Punt
13	LAC	LAC 15	6	7	3:31	Punt
14	ATL	ATL 41	11	43	5:08	Interception
15	LAC	LAC 25	7	30	2:59	Interception
16	ATL	ATL 38	3	17	0:16	Interception
17	LAC	LAC 26	6	49	0:31	Turnover on downs

0 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Chargers gained 88 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Atlanta Falcons

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matt Ryan	21/32	224	1	3	2	-3.4
Russell Gage	1/1	39	1	0	0	4.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Ito Smith	11	42	3.8	-1.3
Todd Gurley	6	19	3.2	-0.3
Matt Ryan	1	3	3.0	0.6
Brian Hill	1	3	3.0	0.2
Keith Smith	1	3	3.0	0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Calvin Ridley	8	12	124	1	38%	2.9
Russell Gage	5	7	82	0	22%	4.1
Todd Gurley	2	3	12	0	9%	0.3
Brian Hill	1	1	12	0	3%	2.1
Laquon Treadwell	1	1	9	1	3%	1.9
Brandon Powell	1	1	9	0	3%	0.7
Jaeden Graham	1	1	7	0	3%	1.3
Hayden Hurst	1	3	7	0	9%	-4.5
Ito Smith	1	1	3	0	3%	-0.2
Keith Smith	1	2	-2	0	6%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
A.J. Terrell	11	0	0.0	1
Foyesade Oluokun	7	3	1.0	0
Tyeler Davison	5	2	0.0	0
Deion Jones	4	2	0.0	0
Isaiah Oliver	4	1	0.0	0
John Cominsky	1	4	0.0	0
Keanu Neal	4	1	0.0	0
Darqueze Dennard	4	0	0.0	0
Grady Jarrett	3	1	0.0	0
Sharrod Neasman	3	0	0.0	0

Los Angeles Chargers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Justin Herbert	36/44	243	2	1	1	5.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Austin Ekeler	15	79	5.3	0.9
Kalen Ballage	7	14	2.0	-2.7
Justin Jackson	3	9	3.0	-0.2
Gabe Nabers	1	3	3.0	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Austin Ekeler	9	9	67	0	20%	2.6
Tyron Johnson	6	7	55	1	16%	4.6
Keenan Allen	9	11	52	1	25%	2.3
Hunter Henry	6	8	41	0	18%	0.2
Justin Jackson	3	3	10	0	7%	-0.9
Jalen Guyton	1	3	8	0	7%	-1.8
Kalen Ballage	1	2	6	0	5%	-0.0
K.J. Hill	1	1	4	0	2%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Rayshawn Jenkins	5	1	1	1
Kenneth Murray	4	2	0	0
Kyzir White	3	2	0	0
Casey Hayward	5	0	0	1
Nick Vigil	3	1	0	0
Jerry Tillery	3	0	0	0
Nasir Adderley	3	0	0	0
Linval Joseph	2	0	0	0
Chris Harris	2	0	0	0
Jahleel Addae	2	0	1	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: LAC -1
Closing total: 49
ATL moneyline: +107
LAC moneyline: -118

Chargers closed -1 and covered, winning by 3.

Total closed 49; the game landed 37 — under by 12.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Tony Corrente
Rest: ATL 7 days · LAC 7 days
Coaches: Raheem Morris vs Anthony Lynn