For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Atlanta Falcons 17 at Los Angeles Chargers 20. Final.
Chargers -1 ✓U 49 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 14
Los Angeles Chargers 20, Falcons 17 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 0:53, 3rd and 2, on Blidi Wreh-Wilson — 33.5 win-probability points to the Falcons on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 0:53 · 3rd and 2
Blidi Wreh-Wilson
Falcons
(:53) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 33-B.Wreh-Wilson at ATL 38. 33-B.Wreh-Wilson to ATL 38 for no gain (15-J.Guyton).
Dome
Chargers closed -1 and covered, winning by 3.
Los Angeles Chargers 20–17 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 0:53, Falcons +33.5% win probability on one snap.
33.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Michael DavisChargersQ4 0:36(:36) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right intended for 18-C.Ridley INTERCEPTED by 43-M.Davis at LAC 33. 43-M.Davis ran ob at LAC 41 for 8 yards. PENALTY on LAC-97-J.Bosa, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 41.
31.7pts
Michael BadgleyChargersQ4 0:03(:03) 4-M.Badgley 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.
19.6pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Chargers won this one — 1 giveaway, against Falcons at 3 giveaways.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Falcons owned this one and still lost it — 9 of 12 on third down, against Chargers at 9 of 15 on third down.
Falconsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Chargers won this one — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Falcons at 1 touchdown on 4 trips.
Chargersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Chargers won this one — 5 chunk plays, against Falcons at 4 chunk plays.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 3.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Chargers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Chargershigher on Falcons154 of 166 plays carry both curves
(:53) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 33-B.Wreh-Wilson at ATL 38. 33-B.Wreh-Wilson to ATL 38 for no gain (15-J.Guyton).
Swing −33.5 for ChargersExpected points −3.45 for ChargersThe model had Falcons 3 points higher than the market did.play 152
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 0:53ATL +33% win prob(:53) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 33-B.Wreh-Wilson at ATL 38. 33-B.Wreh-Wilson to ATL 38 for no gain (15-J.Guyton).
4th · 0:36ATL +32% win prob(:36) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right intended for 18-C.Ridley INTERCEPTED by 43-M.Davis at LAC 33. 43-M.Davis ran ob at LAC 41 for 8 yards. PENALTY on LAC-97-J.Bosa, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 41.
4th · 0:03LAC +20% win prob(:03) 4-M.Badgley 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.
4th · 3:52ATL +18% win prob(3:52) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right intended for 81-H.Hurst INTERCEPTED by 36-J.Addae at LAC 22. 36-J.Addae to LAC 25 for 3 yards (25-I.Smith).
4th · 0:16LAC +16% win prob(:16) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 83-Ty.Johnson pushed ob at ATL 26 for 25 yards (22-K.Neal).
1st · 0:27LAC +15% win prob(:27) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 83-R.Gage. 83-R.Gage pass deep middle to 18-C.Ridley for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-J.Bosa].
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Michael Badgley's 43-yard field goal with 0:03 left in the 4th put Los Angeles Chargers ahead for good. It was the last score of the day.
4th0:03Michael Badgley·43-yd field goal43-yard field goalholder T.Long · snap C.MazzaLead never changed again+317–20
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Falconscategory by categoryChargers
Falcons2–7Chargers
319Total yards345
5.8Yards per play4.9
49%Success rate49%
75%Third-down rate60%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
4Explosive plays5
17First downs22
2Sacks taken1
3Turnovers1
The read
Chargers ahead 7–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.01Falcons: +0.01 expected points added per play
+0.05Chargers: +0.05 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.04Falcons: +0.04 expected points added per play
+0.12Chargers: +0.12 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.05Falcons: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.06Chargers: −0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Falcons ran 55 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Chargers’s 71 at 63%. Red-zone trips: Falcons 4, Chargers 4.
NoteChargers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.05 expected points added per play vs 0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 14Against their seasonOver Expected
ATL's pass rate over expected, +7.0 pts, is past their previous high of +3.1 pts in week 6 — the highest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
A 2.5-swing turn from week 13.
55 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 17 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −6.6 vs their 13.3%, and they swing ±5.7 week to week (−1.15× that swing) · 45 dropbacks
Chargers16.7%
right on their number · +2.4 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±6.1 week to week (+0.39× that swing) · 36 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteATL's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 6.7%, 6.6 points below their season mean of 13.3% and 1.1 times their own 5.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Chargers attack right, the Falcons attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Falcons←Chargers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Ryan pass−28% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(:36) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right intended for 18-C.Ridley INTERCEPTED by 43-M.Davis at LAC 33. 43-M.Davis ran ob at LAC 41 for 8 yards. PENALTY on LAC-97-J.Bosa, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at LAC 41.
Q4 0:36 · Falcons · 1st & 10 at LAC 45 · gained nothing · -3.02 EP · −27.8% win probability
152 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was LAC moving 83 yards from the LAC 17 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LAC attacks right, ATL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
45%
Yards
664
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46+0.0570%
Falcons1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.2269%
Chargers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR13-0.0846%
Falcons1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.1667%
Chargers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.2050%
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.1667%
Falcons2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-1.1440%
Falcons1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Chargers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Chargers1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Chargers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Falcons2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Chargers2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Falcons1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Falcons0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 32
Falcons0Chargers6
Falcons0Chargers7
Touchdown17 plays, from the Chargers 17 to the Falcons 10
FormationWildcatOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.4 seconds
Falcons6Chargers7
Falcons7Chargers7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Chargers 39
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt4 plays
Falcons10Chargers7
Field goal8 plays, from the Falcons 33 to the Chargers 18
Falcons10Chargers10
Field goal5 plays, from the Falcons 23 to the Falcons 17
Falcons16Chargers10
Falcons17Chargers10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Chargers 9
The period ended23 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Falcons 8
3rd quarter34 plays
Punt5 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
Intercepted10 plays, from the Falcons 22 to the Chargers 43
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.4 seconds
Falcons17Chargers16
Falcons17Chargers17
Touchdown15 plays, from the Chargers 20 to the Falcons 8
The period ended4 plays, from the Falcons 25 to the Falcons 30
4th quarter47 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, three tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerTwoPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.7 seconds
Punt7 plays, from the Falcons 36 to the Chargers 38
Punt7 plays, from the Chargers 15 to the Chargers 30
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.9 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.4 seconds
Intercepted12 plays, from the Falcons 41 to the Chargers 16
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runSlantCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Chargers 25 to the Falcons 44
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Falcons 38 to the Chargers 45
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageTwo-man underMan or zoneManIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Falcons17Chargers20
Field goal9 plays, from the Chargers 26 to the Falcons 25
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
