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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:47 AM ET · 16 to play
Baltimore Ravens 47 at Cleveland Browns 42. Final.
Ravens -3 ✓O 45.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 14
Baltimore Ravens 47, Browns 42 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 2:00, 4th and 5, on Marquise Brown — 38.1 win-probability points to the Ravens on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 2:00 · 4th and 5
Marquise Brown
Ravens
(2:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 15-M.Brown for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
16.3 mph wind
Ravens closed -3 and covered, winning by 5.
Baltimore Ravens 47–42. Biggest swing: Q4 2:00, Ravens +38.1% win probability on one snap. Played in 16.3 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.
38.1
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Baker MayfieldBrownsQ4 6:41(6:41) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
15.4pts
Justin TuckerRavensQ4 0:07(:07) 9-J.Tucker 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
15.4pts
What separated them
Third down
Ravens won this one — 6 of 11 on third down, against Browns at 5 of 12 on third down.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Ravens won this one — no giveaways, against Browns at 1 giveaway.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Ravens won this one — +0.36 expected points per carry, against Browns at +0.19 expected points per carry.
Ravensthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Ravens won this one — +0.39 expected points per snap, against Browns at +0.25 expected points per snap.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.4 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Browns.
MarketModelmodel higher on Brownshigher on Ravens183 of 195 plays carry both curves
(2:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 15-M.Brown for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −38.1 for BrownsExpected points −6.62 for BrownsThe model had Browns 6 points higher than the market did.play 175
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 2:00CLE +38% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 15-M.Brown for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 0:07CLE +15% win prob(:07) 9-J.Tucker 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
4th · 6:41CLE +15% win prob(6:41) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 1:10CLE +13% win prob(1:10) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 27-K.Hunt for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
2nd · 0:52CLE +12% win prob(:52) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 89-M.Andrews to CLE 17 for 39 yards (36-M.Stewart Jr.).
4th · 2:12BAL +12% win prob(2:12) (Shotgun) 7-T.McSorley up the middle to CLE 44 for -3 yards (95-M.Garrett). BAL-7-T.McSorley was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Justin Tucker's 55-yard field goal with 0:07 left in the 4th put Baltimore Ravens ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 1 score that followed.
4th0:07Justin Tucker·55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder S.Koch · snap M.CoxLead never changed again+345–42
4th0:02Marlon Humphrey·safetysafetytwo points, and the ball backtwo points, and the ball back+247–42
14 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Ravenscategory by categoryBrowns
Ravens5–4Browns
387Total yards495
6.8Yards per play6.4
46%Success rate48%
55%Third-down rate42%
5Red-zone touchdowns4
11Explosive plays10
23First downs29
4Sacks taken0
0Turnovers1
The read
Ravens ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Browns, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.41 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.39Ravens: +0.39 expected points added per play
+0.25Browns: +0.25 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.41Ravens: +0.41 expected points added per play
+0.27Browns: +0.27 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.36Ravens: +0.36 expected points added per play
+0.19Browns: +0.19 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Ravens ran 57 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Browns’s 77 at 70%. Red-zone trips: Ravens 6, Browns 6.
NoteBrowns outgained Ravens 495-387 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -31 pts to 17 pts
inside their normal wobble · −8.3 vs their 17.6%, and they swing ±9.4 week to week (−0.88× that swing) · 54 dropbacks
Browns13.8%
right on their number · +2.5 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.48× that swing) · 29 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCLE's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 62.9%, 13.9 points above their season mean of 49.0% and 1.0 times their own 13.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Browns attack right, the Ravens attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Ravens←Browns→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
L.Jackson pass+42% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(2:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 15-M.Brown for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 2:00 · Ravens · 4th & 5 at CLE 44 · gained 44 · +6.62 EP · +41.8% win probability
181 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 195 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 195 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
13 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 81 yards from the CLE 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CLE attacks right, BAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
195 of 195 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
195
EPA per play
+0.22
Success rate
43%
Yards
882
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR49+0.1971%
Ravens1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26+0.4173%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.4067%
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR10+0.1110%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR7+0.4729%
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7+0.3843%
Ravens2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR6+0.4717%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.5050%
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5+0.730%
Ravens2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR2——
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Ravens0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Ravens2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
195 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
195 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Ravens0Browns6
Ravens0Browns7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Browns 19 to the Ravens 7
Ravens6Browns7
Ravens7Browns7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Ravens 27 to the Browns 5
The period ended13 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Ravens 23
2nd quarter54 plays
No good1 play
Punt4 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 35 to the Browns 44
Ravens13Browns7
Ravens14Browns7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Ravens 20 to the Browns 11
Ravens14Browns13
Ravens14Browns14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Ravens 14
Punt5 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Browns 35 to the Browns 42
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw7.1 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFour
Ravens20Browns14
Ravens21Browns14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Ravens 44 to the Browns 17
The period ended8 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Browns 44
3rd quarter46 plays
Ravens27Browns14
Ravens28Browns14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Browns 19
Ravens28Browns20
Touchdown13 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Ravens 5
Punt11 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Browns 47
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted1 play
Ravens34Browns20
Touchdown2 plays
The period ended12 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Ravens 37
4th quarter55 plays
Ravens34Browns26
Ravens34Browns28
Touchdown6 plays, from the Ravens 27 to the Ravens 21
Punt5 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Ravens 29
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerSix
Ravens34Browns34
Ravens34Browns35
Touchdown14 plays, from the Browns 30 to the Ravens 5
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.7 seconds
Ravens40Browns35
Ravens42Browns35
Touchdown11 plays, from the Ravens 21 to the Browns 41
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.7 seconds
Ravens42Browns41
Ravens42Browns42
Touchdown7 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Ravens 22
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runDigCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.9 seconds
Ravens45Browns42
Field goal9 plays, from the Ravens 25 to the Browns 37
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsRoute runAngleCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerOnePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.7 seconds
Ravens47Browns42
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Ravens -3
Closing total
45.5
Ravens moneyline
-174
Browns moneyline
+156
Ravens closed -3 and covered, winning by 5.
Total closed 45.5; the game landed 89 — over by 43.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Cold, 33°F at kickoff; windy at 16 mph out of the north-west; overcast.
Referee
Bill Vinovich
Rest
Ravens 6 days · Browns 8 days
Coaches
John Harbaugh vs Kevin Stefanski
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
NoteWind at 16.3 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.
1st · 0:48
CLE +10% win prob
(:48) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short middle to 82-R.Higgins (22-J.Smith). PENALTY on BAL-22-J.Smith, Defensive Pass Interference, 11 yards, enforced at BAL 34 - No Play.
4th · 0:02BAL +10% win prob(:02) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 27-K.Hunt to CLE 27 for 2 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by CLE-82-R.Higgins at CLE 27. 82-R.Higgins to CLE 21 for -6 yards. Lateral to 6-B.Mayfield to CLE 15 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, recovered by CLE-80-J.Landry at CLE 0. 80-J.Landry pushed ob in End Zone, SAFETY (44-M.Humphrey).
