2020 Week 14 · Mon, Dec 14, 2020 · FirstEnergy Stadium

Baltimore RavensWinner

Cleveland Browns

BAL -3 ✓O 45.5 ✓18 mph windRavens closed -3 and covered, winning by 5.

Baltimore Ravens 47–42. Biggest swing: Q4 2:00, CLE +38% win probability on one snap. Played in 18 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 2:00BAL — CLE BAL ball · 4th & 5CLE 53%

(2:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 15-M.Brown for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 2:00CLE +38% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 15-M.Brown for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 0:07CLE +15% win prob(:07) 9-J.Tucker 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.
Q4 · 6:41CLE +15% win prob(6:41) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 1:10CLE +13% win prob(1:10) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 27-K.Hunt for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Ravens	Browns
Offensive plays	57	77
Total yards	387	495 (edge)
Yards per play	6.8 (edge)	6.4
Expected points added / play	0.39 (edge)	0.25
Success rate	46%	48% (edge)
Dropback rate	51%	70%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.41 (edge)	0.27
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.36 (edge)	0.19
Third downs	6/11 (edge)	5/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	11 (edge)	10
First downs gained on snaps	23	29 (edge)
Sacks taken	4	0 (edge)
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Browns outgained Ravens 495–387 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CLE

Baker MayfieldQB

28/47, 343 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

11.7 expected points added · +1.4% completion over expected

Passing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

11/17, 163 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

6.8 expected points added · +5.5% completion over expected

Rushing · BAL

Lamar JacksonQB

9 att, 124 yds, 2 TD

13.8 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CLE

Nick ChubbRB

17 att, 82 yds, 2 TD

2.5 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BAL

Mark AndrewsTE

5/6 for 78 yds, 0 TD

32% of team targets · 4.5 expected points added

Receiving · CLE

Kareem HuntRB

6/7 for 77 yds, 1 TD

16% of team targets · 5.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CLE	CLE 19	13	81	5:54	Touchdown
2	BAL	BAL 27	11	44	6:02	Touchdown
3	CLE	CLE 25	9	15	3:08	Turnover on downs
4	BAL	BAL 29	4	-10	1:00	Punt
5	CLE	CLE 35	4	4	1:26	Punt
6	BAL	BAL 20	9	80	4:41	Touchdown
7	CLE	CLE 25	9	75	3:33	Touchdown
8	BAL	BAL 25	5	-5	2:25	Punt
9	CLE	CLE 35	4	7	0:50	Punt
10	BAL	BAL 44	5	56	0:31	Touchdown
11	CLE	CLE 25	5	19	0:30	End of half
12	BAL	BAL 25	6	70	2:13	Touchdown
13	CLE	CLE 25	13	75	3:41	Touchdown
14	BAL	BAL 25	10	32	4:34	Punt
15	CLE	CLE 13	1	0	0:08	Interception
16	BAL	CLE 1	2	1	0:03	Touchdown
17	CLE	CLE 25	14	72	5:45	Touchdown
18	BAL	BAL 25	5	4	0:50	Punt
19	CLE	CLE 30	13	70	6:13	Touchdown
20	BAL	BAL 21	11	77	4:42	Touchdown
21	CLE	CLE 25	6	75	0:47	Touchdown
22	BAL	BAL 25	7	38	1:02	Turnover on downs
23	CLE	CLE 25	2	2	0:02	Turnover on downs

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Browns gained 81 scrimmage yards over 13 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Baltimore Ravens

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Lamar Jackson	11/17	163	1	0	4	6.8
Trace McSorley	1/4	13	0	0	0	-0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Lamar Jackson	9	124	13.8	2	13.8
J.K. Dobbins	13	53	4.1	1	0.6
Gus Edwards	7	49	7.0	2	4.1
Justice Hill	1	4	4.0	0	-0.5
Trace McSorley	2	1	0.5	0	-1.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mark Andrews	5	6	78	0	32%	4.5
Marquise Brown	2	6	50	1	32%	4.2
Willie Snead	3	5	29	0	26%	1.3
Miles Boykin	1	1	15	0	5%	1.5
Gus Edwards	1	1	4	0	5%	-0.3

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Chuck Clark	5	5	0	0
Patrick Queen	3	5	0	0
DeShon Elliott	5	2	0	1
Marcus Peters	4	1	0	0
Matt Judon	2	3	0	0
Davontae Harris	4	1	0	0
Marlon Humphrey	3	1	0	1
Tyus Bowser	1	2	1	1
Nnamdi Madubuike	1	2	0	0
Brandon Williams	1	2	0	1

Cleveland Browns

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Baker Mayfield	28/47	343	2	1	0	11.7
Jarvis Landry	1/1	12	0	0	0	0.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Nick Chubb	17	82	4.8	2	2.5
Kareem Hunt	6	33	5.5	1	1.9
Baker Mayfield	5	23	4.6	1	2.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Kareem Hunt	6	7	77	1	16%	5.6
Donovan Peoples-Jones	3	5	74	0	11%	3.2
Rashard Higgins	6	10	68	1	23%	-1.5
Jarvis Landry	6	9	52	0	20%	4.7
David Njoku	3	4	45	0	9%	3.6
Nick Chubb	2	2	21	0	5%	1.3
Harrison Bryant	3	6	18	0	14%	-1.9
Andy Janovich	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Karl Joseph	5	2	0.0	0
Sheldon Richardson	3	3	1.0	0
Sione Takitaki	3	2	1.0	0
Larry Ogunjobi	2	2	0.0	0
M.J. Stewart	3	1	0.0	0
Malcolm Smith	2	2	0.0	0
Terrance Mitchell	3	1	0.0	0
B.J. Goodson	1	2	0.0	0
Myles Garrett	1	2	0.0	0
Olivier Vernon	2	1	2.0	1

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BAL -3
Closing total: 45.5
BAL moneyline: -174
CLE moneyline: +156

Ravens closed -3 and covered, winning by 5.

Total closed 45.5; the game landed 89 — over by 43.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: FirstEnergy Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 34°F, wind 18 mph
Referee: Bill Vinovich
Rest: BAL 6 days · CLE 8 days
Coaches: John Harbaugh vs Kevin Stefanski

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.

Wind at 18 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.