For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2020 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 13, 2020 · Paul Brown Stadium
Final
CowboysDallas30
BY 23final margin
BengalsCincinnati7
Dallas Cowboys 30 at Cincinnati Bengals 7. Final.
Cowboys -3 ✓U 44 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 14
Dallas Cowboys 30, Bengals 7 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 6:28, 2nd and 3, on Trayveon Williams — 25.9 win-probability points to the Cowboys on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 6:28 · 2nd and 3
Trayveon Williams
Cowboys
(6:28) (Shotgun) 32-T.Williams right guard to DAL 20 for no gain. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by DAL-58-A.Smith at DAL 22. 58-A.Smith for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Cowboys closed -3 and covered, winning by 23.
Dallas Cowboys 30–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 6:28, Cowboys +25.9% win probability on one snap.
25.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Giovani BernardCowboysQ1 14:30(14:30) (Shotgun) 25-G.Bernard right guard to CIN 32 for 1 yard (90-D.Lawrence). FUMBLES (90-D.Lawrence), RECOVERED by DAL-26-J.Lewis at CIN 32.
17.1pts
Amari CooperCowboysQ2 11:40(11:40) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 19-A.Cooper pushed ob at DAL 40 for 20 yards (22-W.Jackson III).
5.4pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Cowboys won this one — -0.19 expected points per carry, against Bengals at -0.84 expected points per carry.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Cowboys won this one — no giveaways, against Bengals at 3 giveaways.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Cowboys won this one — +0.16 expected points per snap, against Bengals at -0.26 expected points per snap.
Cowboysthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Cowboys won this one — +0.51 expected points per dropback, against Bengals at +0.13 expected points per dropback.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 16 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bengals.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bengalshigher on Cowboys148 of 159 plays carry both curves
(6:28) (Shotgun) 32-T.Williams right guard to DAL 20 for no gain. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by DAL-58-A.Smith at DAL 22. 58-A.Smith for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −25.9 for BengalsExpected points −11.73 for BengalsThe model had Bengals 14 points higher than the market did.play 20
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 6:28DAL +26% win prob(6:28) (Shotgun) 32-T.Williams right guard to DAL 20 for no gain. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by DAL-58-A.Smith at DAL 22. 58-A.Smith for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:30DAL +17% win prob(14:30) (Shotgun) 25-G.Bernard right guard to CIN 32 for 1 yard (90-D.Lawrence). FUMBLES (90-D.Lawrence), RECOVERED by DAL-26-J.Lewis at CIN 32.
2nd · 11:40CIN +5% win prob(11:40) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 19-A.Cooper pushed ob at DAL 40 for 20 yards (22-W.Jackson III).
1st · 9:10CIN +4% win prob(9:10) 8-B.Allen pass short middle to 18-A.Green to DAL 39 for 16 yards (55-L.Vander Esch; 32-S.Smith).
1st · 11:47DAL +4% win prob(11:47) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton sacked at CIN 16 for -4 yards (70-M.Hunt).
1st · 13:42CIN +4% win prob(13:42) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short left to 13-M.Gallup ran ob at CIN 19 for 11 yards.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Greg Zuerlein's 34-yard field goal with 11:05 left in the 1st put Dallas Cowboys ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:05Greg Zuerlein·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder H.Niswander · snap L.LadouceurLead never changed again+33–0
3rd11:38Greg Zuerlein·20-yd field goal20-yard field goalholder H.Niswander · snap L.Ladouceur+320–7
4th5:17Greg Zuerlein·55-yd field goal55-yard field goalholder H.Niswander · snap L.Ladouceur+323–7
4th2:00Tony Pollard·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Andy Daltonfrom Andy Dalton+730–7
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Cowboyscategory by categoryBengals
Cowboys4–4Bengals
273Total yards309
5.6Yards per play4.4
43%Success rate47%
45%Third-down rate56%
2Red-zone touchdowns1
5Explosive plays2
16First downs18
2Sacks taken2
0Turnovers3
The read
Deadlocked at 4–4 categories. Biggest gap to Cowboys, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.84 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.16Cowboys: +0.16 expected points added per play
−0.26Bengals: −0.26 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.51Cowboys: +0.51 expected points added per play
+0.13Bengals: +0.13 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.19Cowboys: −0.19 expected points added per play
−0.84Bengals: −0.84 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Cowboys ran 49 snaps at a 51% dropback rate against Bengals’s 70 at 60%. Red-zone trips: Cowboys 4, Bengals 4.
NoteBengals outgained Cowboys 309-273 but lost the turnover battle 3-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DAL's early-down pass rate, 43.2%, is past their previous low of 48.8% in week 7 — the lowest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
37 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -29 pts to 27 pts
right on their number · −3.4 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Bengals16.0%
inside their normal wobble · +3.5 vs their 12.5%, and they swing ±6.4 week to week (+0.55× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDAL's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 43.2%, 16.0 points below their season mean of 59.3% and 1.4 times their own 11.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Dallas Cowboys
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 2 never used
52Connor WilliamsG · Every snap100%51 snaps
78Terence SteeleT · Every snap100%51 snaps
73Joe LooneyC · Every snap100%51 snaps
69Brandon KnightT · Every snap100%51 snaps
66Connor McGovernG · Every snap100%51 snaps
14Andy DaltonQB · Every snap100%51 snaps
86Dalton SchultzTE · Full-time96%49 snaps
13Michael GallupWR · Full-time94%48 snaps
19Amari CooperWR · Full-time82%42 snaps
21Ezekiel ElliottRB · Heavy rotation63%32 snaps
88CeeDee LambWR · Heavy rotation51%26 snaps
20Tony PollardRB · Rotational37%19 snaps
80Blake BellTE · Rotational29%15 snaps
84Sean McKeonTE · Situational18%9 snaps
85Noah BrownWR · Situational16%8 snaps
11Cedrick WilsonWR · Situational14%7 snaps
Inactive · 7
Anthony BrownCBBradlee AnaeDEEli AnkouDTLuke GiffordOLBBen DiNucciQBDonovan WilsonSSMalik TurnerWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bengals attack right, the Cowboys attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Cowboys←Bengals→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Williams right−31% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(6:28) (Shotgun) 32-T.Williams right guard to DAL 20 for no gain. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by DAL-58-A.Smith at DAL 22. 58-A.Smith for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 6:28 · Bengals · 2nd & 3 at DAL 20 · lost 2 · -11.73 EP · −30.6% win probability
146 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 159 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 159 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was DAL moving 88 yards from the DAL 12 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CIN attacks right, DAL attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
159 of 159 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
159
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
42%
Yards
581
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bengals1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR59-0.2659%
Cowboys1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29+0.2662%
Cowboys1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR20+0.0235%
Bengals1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR11-0.2845%
snapsepapass rate
159 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
159 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Bengals 21 to the Bengals 31
Cowboys3Bengals0
Field goal7 plays, from the Bengals 32 to the Bengals 12
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Cowboys9Bengals0
Touchdown9 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Cowboys 20
Cowboys10Bengals0
The period ended16 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Cowboys 15
2nd quarter42 plays
Fumble lost1 play
Cowboys16Bengals0
Cowboys17Bengals0
Touchdown17 plays, from the Cowboys 12 to the Bengals 11
Cowboys17Bengals6
Cowboys17Bengals7
Touchdown21 plays, from the Bengals 23 to the Cowboys 5
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter37 plays
Cowboys20Bengals7
Field goal9 plays, from the Bengals 43 to the Bengals 2
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 31
Punt7 plays, from the Cowboys 19 to the Cowboys 46
Punt7 plays, from the Bengals 12 to the Bengals 29
The period ended7 plays, from the Cowboys 31 to the Bengals 36
4th quarter43 plays
Punt2 plays
Turnover on downs16 plays, from the Bengals 20 to the Cowboys 10
Cowboys23Bengals7
Field goal10 plays, from the Cowboys 10 to the Bengals 27
Turnover on downs5 plays
Cowboys29Bengals7
Cowboys30Bengals7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bengals 16 to the Bengals 7
The period ended5 plays, from the Bengals 25 to the Bengals 29
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
