2020 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 13, 2020 · Paul Brown Stadium

Dallas CowboysWinner

Cincinnati Bengals

DAL -3 ✓U 44 ✓Cowboys closed -3 and covered, winning by 23.

Dallas Cowboys 30–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 6:28, DAL +26% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 6:28DAL — CIN CIN ball · 2nd & 3DAL 57%

(6:28) (Shotgun) 32-T.Williams right guard to DAL 20 for no gain. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by DAL-58-A.Smith at DAL 22. 58-A.Smith for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 6:28DAL +26% win prob(6:28) (Shotgun) 32-T.Williams right guard to DAL 20 for no gain. FUMBLES, RECOVERED by DAL-58-A.Smith at DAL 22. 58-A.Smith for 78 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 14:30DAL +17% win prob(14:30) (Shotgun) 25-G.Bernard right guard to CIN 32 for 1 yard (90-D.Lawrence). FUMBLES (90-D.Lawrence), RECOVERED by DAL-26-J.Lewis at CIN 32.
Q2 · 11:40CIN +5% win prob(11:40) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 19-A.Cooper pushed ob at DAL 40 for 20 yards (22-W.Jackson III).
Q1 · 9:10CIN +4% win prob(9:10) 8-B.Allen pass short middle to 18-A.Green to DAL 39 for 16 yards (55-L.Vander Esch; 32-S.Smith).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Cowboys	Bengals
Offensive plays	49	70
Total yards	273	309 (edge)
Yards per play	5.6 (edge)	4.4
Expected points added / play	0.16 (edge)	-0.26
Success rate	43%	47% (edge)
Dropback rate	51%	60%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.51 (edge)	0.13
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.19 (edge)	-0.84
Third downs	5/11	9/16 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	5 (edge)	2
First downs gained on snaps	16	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	2	2
Turnovers	0 (edge)	3

Bengals outgained Cowboys 309–273 but lost the turnover battle 3–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CIN

Brandon AllenQB

27/36, 217 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

11.5 expected points added · +4.2% completion over expected

Passing · DAL

Andy DaltonQB

16/23, 185 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

12.6 expected points added · +10.1% completion over expected

Rushing · CIN

Trayveon WilliamsRB

12 att, 49 yds, 0 TD

-11.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · DAL

Ezekiel ElliottRB

12 att, 48 yds, 0 TD

-2.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CIN

A.J. GreenWR

6/7 for 62 yds, 1 TD

18% of team targets · 8.9 expected points added

Receiving · DAL

Amari CooperWR

4/5 for 51 yds, 1 TD

23% of team targets · 5.6 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CIN	CIN 21	3	11	0:38	Fumble
2	DAL	CIN 32	7	16	3:20	Turnover on downs
3	CIN	CIN 25	9	53	4:47	Defensive touchdown
4	CIN	CIN 25	14	55	6:25	Fumble
5	DAL	DAL 12	16	93	8:12	Touchdown
6	CIN	CIN 23	18	77	6:30	Touchdown
7	DAL	DAL 20	2	0	0:08	End of half
8	DAL	CIN 43	9	41	3:25	Turnover on downs
9	CIN	CIN 25	5	16	2:14	Punt
10	DAL	DAL 19	6	26	3:26	Punt
11	CIN	CIN 12	7	17	3:13	Punt
12	DAL	DAL 31	7	33	2:55	Punt
13	CIN	CIN 20	15	80	7:24	Turnover on downs
14	DAL	DAL 10	7	48	2:11	Turnover on downs
15	CIN	CIN 25	5	-9	1:35	Turnover on downs
16	DAL	CIN 16	5	16	1:42	Touchdown
17	CIN	CIN 25	4	9	1:55	End of game

0 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Cowboys gained 93 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Dallas Cowboys

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Andy Dalton	16/23	185	2	0	2	12.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Ezekiel Elliott	12	48	4.0	-2.0
Tony Pollard	11	39	3.5	-3.6
CeeDee Lamb	1	15	15.0	1.1
Andy Dalton	1	-1	-1.0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Amari Cooper	4	5	51	1	23%	5.6
CeeDee Lamb	2	2	46	0	9%	4.6
Dalton Schultz	3	3	34	0	14%	2.8
Michael Gallup	2	6	23	0	27%	0.3
Ezekiel Elliott	2	3	11	0	14%	0.1
Blake Bell	1	1	11	0	5%	0.9
Tony Pollard	2	2	9	1	9%	4.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Jaylon Smith	8	3	1
Rashard Robinson	6	3	0
Xavier Woods	4	2	0
Jourdan Lewis	2	4	0
Leighton Vander Esch	2	4	0
Darian Thompson	4	1	0
Antwaun Woods	2	1	0
Deante Burton	2	1	0
Saivion Smith	2	1	0
Aldon Smith	1	2	0

Cincinnati Bengals

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Brandon Allen	27/36	217	1	0	0	11.5
Ryan Finley	1/2	5	0	0	2	-5.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Trayveon Williams	12	49	4.1	-11.5
Samaje Perine	10	32	3.2	-3.0
Brandon Allen	4	12	3.0	-0.2
Giovani Bernard	3	8	2.7	-6.1
Alex Erickson	1	0	0.0	-3.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
A.J. Green	6	7	62	1	18%	8.9
Tee Higgins	5	8	49	0	21%	4.5
Tyler Boyd	5	9	43	0	24%	-4.3
Drew Sample	3	4	21	0	11%	0.5
Giovani Bernard	3	3	15	0	8%	-1.5
Trayveon Williams	3	3	14	0	8%	0.1
Samaje Perine	2	2	9	0	5%	0.0
Alex Erickson	1	1	9	0	3%	0.7
Mike Thomas	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Josh Bynes	4	3	0.0	0
Sam Hubbard	3	3	0.0	1
Vonn Bell	3	2	0.0	0
Jessie Bates	4	0	0.0	1
Germaine Pratt	1	3	0.0	0
William Jackson	2	1	0.0	0
Mike Daniels	2	1	0.0	0
Cethan Carter	2	0	0.0	0
Darius Phillips	2	0	0.0	2
Margus Hunt	2	0	1.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: DAL -3
Closing total: 44
DAL moneyline: -164
CIN moneyline: +148

Cowboys closed -3 and covered, winning by 23.

Total closed 44; the game landed 37 — under by 7.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Paul Brown Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 44°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: John Hussey
Rest: DAL 5 days · CIN 7 days
Coaches: Mike McCarthy vs Zac Taylor