2020 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 13, 2020 · Bank of America Stadium

Denver BroncosWinner

Carolina Panthers

CAR -4 upsetO 46 ✓Panthers closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Denver Broncos 32–27. Biggest swing: Q2 6:34, DEN +24% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 6:34DEN — CAR DEN ball · 2nd & 9DEN 67%

(6:34) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock sacked at CAR 41 for -9 yards (21-J.Chinn). FUMBLES (21-J.Chinn) [21-J.Chinn], RECOVERED by CAR-94-E.Obada at CAR 43. 94-E.Obada to DEN 3 for 54 yards (10-J.Jeudy).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 6:34DEN +24% win prob(6:34) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock sacked at CAR 41 for -9 yards (21-J.Chinn). FUMBLES (21-J.Chinn) [21-J.Chinn], RECOVERED by CAR-94-E.Obada at CAR 43. 94-E.Obada to DEN 3 for 54 yards (10-J.Jeudy).
Q1 · 10:39DEN +15% win prob(10:39) 3-J.Charlton punts 56 yards to DEN 17, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-D.Spencer for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 · 3:00CAR +11% win prob(3:00) 6-S.Martin punts 58 yards to CAR 37, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 14-P.Cooper to 50 for 13 yards (97-J.Attaochu). PENALTY on CAR-30-N.Jamerson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 37.
Q4 · 4:02CAR +9% win prob(4:02) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass deep middle to 13-K.Hamler for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Broncos	Panthers
Offensive plays	56	65
Total yards	371 (edge)	370
Yards per play	6.6 (edge)	5.7
Expected points added / play	0.15 (edge)	0.06
Success rate	52% (edge)	42%
Dropback rate	55%	71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.30 (edge)	-0.02
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.04	0.24 (edge)
Third downs	3/7	6/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8	10 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	21	21
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	4
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Broncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs 0.06.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Teddy BridgewaterQB

30/40, 283 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

-1.9 expected points added · +6.5% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Drew LockQB

21/27, 280 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT

9.0 expected points added · +12.2% completion over expected

Rushing · DEN

Melvin GordonRB

13 att, 68 yds, 0 TD

4.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Mike DavisRB

11 att, 51 yds, 2 TD

0.9 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · DEN

K.J. HamlerWR

2/3 for 86 yds, 2 TD

11% of team targets · 8.4 expected points added

Receiving · CAR

Robbie ChosenWR

8/12 for 84 yds, 0 TD

31% of team targets · 1.7 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DEN	DEN 25	7	18	2:34	Punt
2	CAR	CAR 21	4	6	2:08	Defensive touchdown
3	CAR	CAR 14	10	44	5:11	Punt
4	DEN	DEN 9	6	19	3:19	Punt
5	CAR	CAR 32	7	16	3:56	Punt
6	DEN	DEN 10	11	42	6:30	Fumble
7	CAR	DEN 3	3	3	0:07	Touchdown
8	DEN	DEN 25	14	58	4:42	Touchdown
9	CAR	CAR 25	7	19	1:33	End of half
10	CAR	CAR 25	6	5	1:49	Punt
11	DEN	DEN 37	5	63	2:07	Touchdown
12	CAR	CAR 25	12	58	4:11	Turnover on downs
13	DEN	DEN 25	9	79	3:18	Touchdown
14	CAR	CAR 25	11	75	5:04	Touchdown
15	DEN	DEN 25	7	19	3:16	Punt
16	CAR	CAR 18	10	79	5:03	Turnover on downs
17	DEN	DEN 25	5	75	1:18	Touchdown
18	CAR	CAR 25	6	62	0:28	Touchdown
19	DEN	DEN 7	5	-2	0:38	Punt
20	CAR	CAR 27	4	3	0:58	Turnover on downs
21	DEN	CAR 30	3	0	1:50	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Broncos gained 79 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Lock	21/27	280	4	0	1	9.0

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Melvin Gordon	13	68	5.2	4.1
Phillip Lindsay	11	24	2.2	-3.9
Drew Lock	6	4	0.7	-3.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
K.J. Hamler	2	3	86	2	11%	8.4
Troy Fumagalli	4	5	53	0	19%	6.0
Jerry Jeudy	2	4	42	0	15%	1.6
Tim Patrick	3	5	36	1	19%	-0.1
Melvin Gordon	3	3	23	0	11%	0.5
Nick Vannett	4	4	20	1	15%	1.4
DaeSean Hamilton	1	1	13	0	4%	0.9
Phillip Lindsay	2	2	7	0	7%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kareem Jackson	7	0	0.0	0
Justin Simmons	7	0	0.0	0
Will Parks	6	0	1.0	0
Josey Jewell	3	3	0.0	0
De'Vante Bausby	5	0	0.0	1
Alexander Johnson	4	1	0.0	0
Michael Ojemudia	5	0	0.0	1
Jeremiah Attaochu	4	0	1.0	0
Bradley Chubb	2	1	0.0	0
Jerry Jeudy	1	0	0.0	0

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Teddy Bridgewater	30/40	283	0	0	4	-1.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Mike Davis	11	51	4.6	2	0.9
Teddy Bridgewater	3	31	10.3	1	3.7
Curtis Samuel	2	22	11.0	0	1.4
Robbie Chosen	2	13	6.5	0	0.3
Rodney Smith	2	10	5.0	0	0.5
Trenton Cannon	1	-2	-2.0	0	-1.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Robbie Chosen	8	12	84	31%	1.7
Curtis Samuel	7	9	68	23%	0.3
Pharoh Cooper	3	3	52	8%	3.0
Mike Davis	5	6	42	15%	0.2
Ian Thomas	3	4	20	10%	-1.3
Rodney Smith	2	2	14	5%	0.2
Brandon Zylstra	1	2	3	5%	0.6
Alex Armah	1	1	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jeremy Chinn	6	1	1.0	0
Tre Boston	4	2	0.0	0
Brian Burns	3	3	0.0	0
Juston Burris	5	1	0.0	0
Jermaine Carter	4	1	0.0	0
Austin Larkin	2	2	0.0	0
Yetur Gross-Matos	1	3	0.0	0
Shaq Thompson	2	1	0.0	0
Donte Jackson	2	1	0.0	2
Derrick Brown	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: CAR -4
Closing total: 46
DEN moneyline: +177
CAR moneyline: -199

Panthers closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46; the game landed 59 — over by 13.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Bank of America Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 70°F, wind 7 mph
Referee: Shawn Hochuli
Rest: DEN 7 days · CAR 14 days
Coaches: Vic Fangio vs Matt Rhule