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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
2020 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 13, 2020 · Bank of America Stadium
Final
BroncosDenver32
BY 5final margin
PanthersCarolina27
Denver Broncos 32 at Carolina Panthers 27. Final.
Panthers -4 upset
The verdict · 2020 Week 14
Denver Broncos 32, Panthers 27 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 6:34, 2nd and 9, on Drew Lock — 24.5 win-probability points to the Panthers on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 6:34 · 2nd and 9
Drew Lock
Panthers
(6:34) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock sacked at CAR 41 for -9 yards (21-J.Chinn). FUMBLES (21-J.Chinn) [21-J.Chinn], RECOVERED by CAR-94-E.Obada at CAR 43. 94-E.Obada to DEN 3 for 54 yards (10-J.Jeudy).
O 46 ✓
Panthers closed -4 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Denver Broncos 32–27. Biggest swing: Q2 6:34, Panthers +24.5% win probability on one snap.
24.5
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetBroncosQ1 10:39(10:39) 3-J.Charlton punts 56 yards to DEN 17, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-D.Spencer for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14.6pts
Unnamed on the sheetBroncosQ4 3:00(3:00) 6-S.Martin punts 58 yards to CAR 37, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 14-P.Cooper to 50 for 13 yards (97-J.Attaochu). PENALTY on CAR-30-N.Jamerson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 37.
10.6pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Broncos won this one — 52% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Panthers at 42% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — +0.24 expected points per carry, against Broncos at -0.04 expected points per carry.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Throwing the ball
Broncos won this one — +0.30 expected points per dropback, against Panthers at -0.02 expected points per dropback.
Broncosthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — no giveaways, against Broncos at 1 giveaway.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
2 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so those portraits are withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 5.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 10 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Broncos.
MarketModelmodel higher on Panthershigher on Broncos161 of 171 plays carry both curves
(6:34) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock sacked at CAR 41 for -9 yards (21-J.Chinn). FUMBLES (21-J.Chinn) [21-J.Chinn], RECOVERED by CAR-94-E.Obada at CAR 43. 94-E.Obada to DEN 3 for 54 yards (10-J.Jeudy).
Swing +24.5 for PanthersExpected points +9.28 for PanthersThe model had Broncos 8 points higher than the market did.play 50
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 6:34DEN +24% win prob(6:34) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock sacked at CAR 41 for -9 yards (21-J.Chinn). FUMBLES (21-J.Chinn) [21-J.Chinn], RECOVERED by CAR-94-E.Obada at CAR 43. 94-E.Obada to DEN 3 for 54 yards (10-J.Jeudy).
1st · 10:39DEN +15% win prob(10:39) 3-J.Charlton punts 56 yards to DEN 17, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-D.Spencer for 83 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
4th · 3:00CAR +11% win prob(3:00) 6-S.Martin punts 58 yards to CAR 37, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 14-P.Cooper to 50 for 13 yards (97-J.Attaochu). PENALTY on CAR-30-N.Jamerson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 37.
4th · 4:02CAR +9% win prob(4:02) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock pass deep middle to 13-K.Hamler for 49 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:05CAR +9% win prob(:05) (Shotgun) 28-M.Davis left guard to CAR 44 for 9 yards (47-J.Jewell; 55-B.Chubb).
4th · 1:56DEN +8% win prob(1:56) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 10-C.Samuel to CAR 30 for 1 yard (41-D.Bausby).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Nick Vannett's 2-yard touchdown catch with 1:38 left in the 2nd put Denver Broncos ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:39Diontae Spencer·83-yd return TD83-yard return touchdownon the kickon the kick · kick no good, hit left upright+66–0
Broncos ahead 4–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Panthers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.15Broncos: +0.15 expected points added per play
+0.06Panthers: +0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.30Broncos: +0.30 expected points added per play
−0.02Panthers: −0.02 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.04Broncos: −0.04 expected points added per play
+0.24Panthers: +0.24 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Broncos ran 56 snaps at a 55% dropback rate against Panthers’s 65 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Broncos 4, Panthers 5.
NoteBroncos won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.15 expected points added per play vs 0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -37 pts to 23 pts
right on their number · −1.9 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±6.5 week to week (−0.29× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Panthers16.1%
right on their number · +2.7 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.45× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCAR's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 39.4 points below their season mean of 39.4% and 1.3 times their own 30.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Panthers attack right, the Broncos attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Broncos←Panthers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Lock sacked−27% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(6:34) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock sacked at CAR 41 for -9 yards (21-J.Chinn). FUMBLES (21-J.Chinn) [21-J.Chinn], RECOVERED by CAR-94-E.Obada at CAR 43. 94-E.Obada to DEN 3 for 54 yards (10-J.Jeudy).
Q2 6:34 · Broncos · 2nd & 9 at CAR 32 · lost 11 · -9.28 EP · −26.6% win probability
159 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 171 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was DEN moving 75 yards from the DEN 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CAR attacks right, DEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
171 of 171 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
171
EPA per play
+0.02
Success rate
41%
Yards
735
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46+0.0874%
Broncos1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31+0.0255%
Broncos1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22+0.3445%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.1158%
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Broncos1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter34 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 43
Broncos6Panthers0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Panthers 21 to the Panthers 27
Punt10 plays, from the Panthers 14 to the Broncos 40
Punt6 plays, from the Broncos 9 to the Broncos 28
The period ended4 plays, from the Panthers 32 to the Panthers 40
2nd quarter45 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Panthers 43 to the Panthers 48
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost12 plays, from the Broncos 10 to the Panthers 32
Broncos6Panthers6
Broncos6Panthers7
Touchdown3 plays
Broncos12Panthers7
Broncos13Panthers7
Touchdown17 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Panthers 2
The period ended9 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Broncos 49
3rd quarter41 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Panthers 29
Broncos19Panthers7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Broncos 37 to the Panthers 37
Broncos19Panthers10
Field goal12 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Broncos 17
Broncos25Panthers10
Touchdown10 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Panthers 2
The period ended8 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Broncos 29
4th quarter51 plays
Broncos25Panthers16
Broncos25Panthers17
Touchdown4 plays, from the Broncos 12 to the Broncos 7
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Broncos 45
Broncos25Panthers20
Field goal11 plays, from the Panthers 18 to the Broncos 7
Broncos31Panthers20
Broncos32Panthers20
Touchdown5 plays, from the Broncos 25 to the Panthers 49
Broncos32Panthers26
Broncos32Panthers27
Touchdown7 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Broncos 10
Punt8 plays, from the Broncos 7 to the Broncos 8
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Panthers 27 to the Panthers 29
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Broncoscategory by categoryPanthers
Broncos6
Panthers0
