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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
Green Bay Packers 31, Lions 24 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q3 6:19, 3rd and 6, on Aaron Rodgers — 9.4 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q3 6:19 · 3rd and 6
Aaron Rodgers
Packers
(6:19) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Packers closed -9.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.
Green Bay Packers 31–24. Biggest swing: Q3 6:19, Packers +9.4% win probability on one snap.
9.4
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Danny AmendolaLionsQ1 10:44(10:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 80-D.Amendola pushed ob at GB 1 for 15 yards (31-A.Amos).
6.5pts
Marquez Valdes-ScantlingPackersQ3 9:33(9:33) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling to DET 21 for 21 yards (24-A.Oruwariye). Penalty on DET-21-T.Walker, Illegal Contact, declined.
8.0pts
What separated them
Third down
Packers won this one — 8 of 11 on third down, against Lions at 5 of 10 on third down.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Packers won this one — 58% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Lions at 47% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Packers won this one — +0.58 expected points per dropback, against Lions at +0.18 expected points per dropback.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Packers won this one — +0.35 expected points per snap, against Lions at +0.15 expected points per snap.
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 18.2 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 39 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Lions.
MarketModelmodel higher on Lionshigher on Packers165 of 178 plays carry both curves
(6:19) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −9.4 for LionsExpected points −2.75 for LionsThe model had Lions 18 points higher than the market did.play 110
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
3rd · 6:19DET +9% win prob(6:19) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 9:33DET +8% win prob(9:33) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling to DET 21 for 21 yards (24-A.Oruwariye). Penalty on DET-21-T.Walker, Illegal Contact, declined.
1st · 10:44DET +7% win prob(10:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 80-D.Amendola pushed ob at GB 1 for 15 yards (31-A.Amos).
1st · 13:44DET +6% win prob(13:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 80-D.Amendola to GB 48 for 5 yards (58-C.Kirksey).
1st · 8:10DET +5% win prob(8:10) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-D.Adams for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 0:20GB +5% win prob(:20) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford sacked at DET 43 for -10 yards (26-D.Savage).
2nd · 1:31
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Aaron Rodgers's 6-yard rushing touchdown with 6:19 left in the 3rd put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st9:29T.J. Hockenson·1-yd TD catch1-yard touchdown catchfrom Matthew Staffordfrom Matthew Stafford+70–7
4th3:35Mason Crosby·57-yd field goal57-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap H.Bradley+331–21
4th1:52Matt Prater·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder J.Fox · snap D.Muhlbach+331–24
9 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Packerscategory by categoryLions
Packers6–0Lions
412Total yards293
6.6Yards per play5.1
58%Success rate47%
73%Third-down rate50%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
4Explosive plays4
25First downs22
0Sacks taken4
0Turnovers0
The read
Packers ahead 6–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.58 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.35Packers: +0.35 expected points added per play
+0.15Lions: +0.15 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.58Packers: +0.58 expected points added per play
+0.18Lions: +0.18 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.02Packers: +0.02 expected points added per play
+0.06Lions: +0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Packers ran 62 snaps at a 60% dropback rate against Lions’s 58 at 76%. Red-zone trips: Packers 4, Lions 4.
NotePackers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.35 expected points added per play vs 0.15.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
DET's sack or hit rate, 2.7%, is past their previous low of 5.4% in week 3 — the lowest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
37 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 4.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · +0.8 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (+0.17× that swing) · 44 dropbacks
Lions2.7%
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.0 vs their 9.7%, and they swing ±4.8 week to week (−1.48× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteDET's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 7.6 pts, 8.4 points above their season mean of -0.7 pts and 1.7 times their own 4.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Green Bay Packers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
74Elgton JenkinsG · Every snap100%67 snaps
62Lucas PatrickG · Every snap100%67 snaps
—Ricky WagnerT · Every snap100%67 snaps
12Aaron RodgersQB · Every snap100%67 snaps
69David BakhtiariT · Every snap100%67 snaps
77Billy TurnerT · Every snap100%67 snaps
17Davante AdamsWR · Full-time93%62 snaps
83Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR · Heavy rotation70%47 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Lions attack right, the Packers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Packers←Lions→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
A.Rodgers pass+16% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(9:33) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling to DET 21 for 21 yards (24-A.Oruwariye). Penalty on DET-21-T.Walker, Illegal Contact, declined.
Q3 9:33 · Packers · 3rd & 14 at DET 42 · gained 21 · +3.63 EP · +16.1% win probability
163 snaps placed · 15 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 178 plays across 16 drives, personnel groupings on 178 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 16 drives ended in points. The longest march was DET moving 85 yards from the DET 15 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; DET attacks right, GB attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
178 of 178 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
178
EPA per play
+0.18
Success rate
47%
Yards
703
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.3357%
Lions1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR43+0.2481%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.4641%
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.2143%
Lions1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
Lions1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Lions1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Packers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Lions0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
178 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
178 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter35 plays
Packers0Lions6
Packers0Lions7
Touchdown13 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Packers 1
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Packers6Lions7
Packers7Lions7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 44
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 19 to the Lions 26
The period ended11 plays, from the Packers 31 to the Lions 27
2nd quarter57 plays
Packers13Lions7
Packers14Lions7
Touchdown3 plays, from the Lions 15 to the Lions 14
Punt8 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Packers 42
Punt9 plays, from the Packers 20 to the Packers 48
Packers14Lions13
Packers14Lions14
Touchdown19 plays, from the Lions 20 to the Packers 3
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 23 to the Packers 42
The period ended11 plays, from the Lions 14 to the Packers 47
3rd quarter32 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFour
Packers20Lions14
Packers21Lions14
Touchdown19 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Lions 6
Punt5 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Lions 29
The period ended8 plays, from the Packers 21 to the Lions 34
4th quarter54 plays
Packers27Lions14
Packers28Lions14
Touchdown6 plays, from the Lions 26 to the Lions 4
Packers28Lions20
Packers28Lions21
Touchdown19 plays, from the Lions 25 to the Packers 2
Packers31Lions21
Field goal10 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Lions 34
Packers31Lions24
Field goal9 plays, from the Packers 33 to the Packers 4
The period ended9 plays, from the Lions 45 to the Lions 34
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Packers -9.5
Closing total
55.5
Packers moneyline
-345
Lions moneyline
+292
Packers closed -9.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 55.5; the game landed 55 — under by 0.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Ford Field
Roof / surface
dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Alex Kemp
Rest
Packers 7 days · Lions 7 days
Coaches
Matt LaFleur vs Darrell Bevell
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
DET +5% win prob
(1:31) 32-D.Swift up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
1st · 9:24DET +5% win prob(9:24) 12-A.Rodgers pass short right to 17-D.Adams pushed ob at GB 29 for 4 yards (24-A.Oruwariye).
