2020 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 13, 2020 · Ford Field

Green Bay PackersWinner

Detroit Lions

GB -9.5 no coverU 55.5 ✓DomePackers closed -9.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.

Green Bay Packers 31–24. Biggest swing: Q3 6:19, DET +9% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q3 · 6:19GB — DET GB ball · 3rd & 6GB 78%

(6:19) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q3 · 6:19DET +9% win prob(6:19) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers scrambles left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 9:33DET +8% win prob(9:33) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling to DET 21 for 21 yards (24-A.Oruwariye). Penalty on DET-21-T.Walker, Illegal Contact, declined.
Q1 · 10:44DET +7% win prob(10:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 80-D.Amendola pushed ob at GB 1 for 15 yards (31-A.Amos).
Q1 · 13:44DET +6% win prob(13:44) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 80-D.Amendola to GB 48 for 5 yards (58-C.Kirksey).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Packers	Lions
Offensive plays	62	58
Total yards	412 (edge)	293
Yards per play	6.6 (edge)	5.1
Expected points added / play	0.35 (edge)	0.15
Success rate	58% (edge)	47%
Dropback rate	60%	76%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.58 (edge)	0.18
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.02	0.06 (edge)
Third downs	8/11 (edge)	5/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	4	4
First downs gained on snaps	25 (edge)	22
Sacks taken	0 (edge)	4
Turnovers	0	0

Packers won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.35 expected points added per play vs 0.15.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

26/33, 290 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

17.9 expected points added · +10.9% completion over expected

Passing · DET

Matthew StaffordQB

24/34, 244 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

5.3 expected points added · +0.2% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

15 att, 69 yds, 0 TD

-1.5 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · GB

Jamaal WilliamsRB

10 att, 38 yds, 0 TD

2.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · GB

Davante AdamsWR

7/10 for 115 yds, 1 TD

32% of team targets · 5.3 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR

6/6 for 85 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · 10.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DET	DET 25	13	75	5:36	Touchdown
2	GB	GB 25	5	75	1:24	Touchdown
3	DET	DET 19	5	7	1:48	Punt
4	GB	GB 31	13	69	7:01	Touchdown
5	DET	DET 25	8	16	3:44	Punt
6	GB	GB 20	8	28	4:46	Punt
7	DET	DET 20	12	85	4:14	Touchdown
8	GB	GB 23	7	19	0:52	Punt
9	DET	DET 14	6	25	0:35	End of half
10	GB	GB 25	16	90	8:49	Touchdown
11	DET	DET 25	5	4	1:21	Punt
12	GB	GB 21	13	79	7:49	Touchdown
13	DET	DET 25	15	52	5:31	Touchdown
14	GB	GB 25	8	41	3:00	Turnover on downs
15	DET	GB 33	8	29	1:41	Turnover on downs
16	GB	DET 45	6	11	1:49	End of game

0 of 16 drives ended in points. Longest march: Packers gained 90 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	26/33	290	3	0	0	17.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Aaron Jones	15	69	4.6	0	-1.5
Jamaal Williams	10	38	3.8	0	2.0
Aaron Rodgers	6	13	2.2	1	1.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Davante Adams	7	10	115	1	32%	5.3
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	6	6	85	1	19%	10.2
Robert Tonyan	5	5	36	1	16%	4.4
Allen Lazard	2	3	19	0	10%	0.5
Equanimeous St. Brown	1	1	15	0	3%	1.2
Tavon Austin	2	2	8	0	6%	0.3
Aaron Jones	2	3	6	0	10%	-2.2
Marcedes Lewis	1	1	6	0	3%	0.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Darnell Savage	8	0	1.0	0
Adrian Amos	6	1	0.0	1
Kevin King	5	0	0.0	0
Dean Lowry	2	2	1.0	0
Kenny Clark	4	0	1.0	0
Christian Kirksey	1	3	0.0	0
Jaire Alexander	2	1	0.0	1
Krys Barnes	3	0	0.0	0
Will Redmond	2	0	0.0	0
Randy Ramsey	1	1	0.0	0

Detroit Lions

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Matthew Stafford	24/34	244	1	0	4	5.3
Chase Daniel	3/6	29	0	0	0	0.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
D'Andre Swift	7	24	3.4	1	1.3
Jamal Agnew	1	11	11.0	0	1.0
Adrian Peterson	4	7	1.8	0	-1.7
Matthew Stafford	1	6	6.0	0	1.9
Kerryon Johnson	2	3	1.5	1	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Danny Amendola	6	7	66	0	18%	2.6
Marvin Jones	4	8	48	0	21%	2.8
T.J. Hockenson	6	11	43	1	29%	-1.3
Mohamed Sanu	2	2	37	0	5%	3.9
D'Andre Swift	4	5	26	0	13%	0.2
Adrian Peterson	1	1	23	0	3%	1.8
Quintez Cephus	2	2	16	0	5%	0.3
Kerryon Johnson	1	1	10	0	3%	0.7
Jamal Agnew	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Darryl Roberts	6	1	1
Jayron Kearse	4	2	0
Jamie Collins	3	3	1
Amani Oruwariye	4	1	1
Tracy Walker III	3	1	0
Austin Bryant	4	0	0
Justin Coleman	2	1	0
Christian Jones	2	1	0
Jahlani Tavai	2	1	0
Jarrad Davis	1	1	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: GB -9.5
Closing total: 55.5
GB moneyline: -345
DET moneyline: +292

Packers closed -9.5, won by 7 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 55.5; the game landed 55 — under by 0.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Ford Field
Roof / surface: dome · fieldturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: GB 7 days · DET 7 days
Coaches: Matt LaFleur vs Darrell Bevell

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.