2020 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 13, 2020 · Soldier Field

Houston Texans

Chicago BearsWinner

HOU -1 upsetU 46 ✓Texans closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Chicago Bears 36–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:16, CHI +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 10:16HOU — CHI CHI ball · 1st & 10HOU 52%

(10:16) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery left tackle for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 10:16CHI +15% win prob(10:16) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery left tackle for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 · 8:53HOU +11% win prob(8:53) 25-Du.Johnson right tackle to HOU 39 for -1 yards (52-K.Mack; 96-A.Hicks). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack), RECOVERED by CHI-52-K.Mack at HOU 41.
Q2 · 10:01CHI +9% win prob(10:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 25-Du.Johnson pushed ob at CHI 19 for 48 yards (39-E.Jackson).
Q1 · 7:30HOU +5% win prob(7:30) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky sacked at HOU 46 for -7 yards (23-E.Murray).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Texans	Bears
Offensive plays	63	59
Total yards	264	410 (edge)
Yards per play	4.2	6.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.17	0.26 (edge)
Success rate	46%	56% (edge)
Dropback rate	68%	66%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.08	0.26 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.35	0.27 (edge)
Third downs	7/14 (edge)	3/10
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	17	22 (edge)
Sacks taken	7	3 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs -0.17.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CHI

Mitchell TrubiskyQB

24/33, 267 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT

9.9 expected points added · +2.8% completion over expected

Passing · HOU

Deshaun WatsonQB

21/30, 219 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-0.6 expected points added · +11.3% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

David MontgomeryRB

11 att, 113 yds, 1 TD

5.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · HOU

Buddy HowellRB

11 att, 42 yds, 0 TD

-0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CHI

Allen RobinsonWR

9/13 for 123 yds, 1 TD

39% of team targets · 7.8 expected points added

Receiving · HOU

Chad HansenWR

7/7 for 56 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 3.1 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	HOU	HOU 17	10	42	4:44	Punt
2	CHI	CHI 20	2	80	0:12	Touchdown
3	HOU	HOU 25	5	15	1:18	Fumble
4	CHI	HOU 41	4	-5	2:12	Punt
5	HOU	HOU 9	5	20	1:51	Punt
6	CHI	CHI 21	13	78	6:46	Touchdown
7	HOU	HOU 14	10	86	4:20	Touchdown
8	CHI	CHI 25	5	8	1:42	Punt
9	HOU	HOU 19	2	-19	0:51	Turnover on downs
10	CHI	CHI 34	7	51	2:42	Touchdown
11	HOU	HOU 25	5	21	1:37	Punt
12	CHI	CHI 23	12	82	1:37	Touchdown
13	HOU	HOU 25	2	0	0:08	End of half
14	CHI	CHI 23	8	71	4:23	Turnover on downs
15	HOU	HOU 25	18	72	8:30	Turnover on downs
16	CHI	CHI 13	4	12	1:02	Punt
17	HOU	CHI 48	4	-10	1:05	Turnover on downs
18	CHI	HOU 42	8	28	4:13	Turnover on downs
19	HOU	HOU 21	5	-4	1:43	Punt
20	CHI	CHI 27	4	3	0:43	Punt
21	CHI	HOU 37	6	2	4:02	Punt
22	HOU	HOU 20	10	41	4:19	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Texans gained 86 scrimmage yards over 10 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Houston Texans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Deshaun Watson	21/30	219	1	0	6	-0.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Buddy Howell	11	42	3.8	-0.6
Deshaun Watson	7	38	5.4	2.1
Duke Johnson	8	26	3.3	-5.7
C.J. Prosise	1	2	2.0	-0.6

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Chad Hansen	7	7	56	0	26%	3.1
Duke Johnson	2	2	53	0	7%	4.0
Steven Mitchell	3	5	38	0	19%	2.1
Keke Coutee	3	3	24	1	11%	2.6
Jordan Akins	3	6	20	0	22%	-0.8
Darren Fells	1	1	15	0	4%	3.2
C.J. Prosise	1	1	10	0	4%	-0.2
Buddy Howell	1	2	3	0	7%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Eric Murray	10	1	2.0	0
Keion Crossen	8	1	0.0	1
Zach Cunningham	4	4	0.0	1
Tyrell Adams	4	3	1.0	0
Lonnie Johnson	5	1	0.0	0
Carlos Watkins	3	1	0.0	0
Justin Reid	2	2	0.0	1
Jake Martin	1	1	0.0	0
J.J. Watt	2	0	0.0	0
Vernon Hargreaves	2	0	0.0	0

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mitchell Trubisky	24/33	267	3	0	3	9.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
David Montgomery	11	113	10.3	1	5.4
Cordarrelle Patterson	6	26	4.3	0	0.7
Mitchell Trubisky	4	23	5.8	0	-0.2
Darnell Mooney	1	5	5.0	0	0.0
Javon Wims	1	2	2.0	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Allen Robinson	9	13	123	1	39%	7.8
David Montgomery	3	4	42	0	12%	1.2
Cole Kmet	4	7	41	0	21%	0.9
Jimmy Graham	4	4	23	1	12%	2.1
Darnell Mooney	2	2	22	1	6%	2.6
Anthony Miller	2	2	16	0	6%	1.3
Cordarrelle Patterson	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Roquan Smith	8	4	2.0	0
Danny Trevathan	4	6	0.0	0
Tashaun Gipson	5	1	0.0	0
Kyle Fuller	3	2	0.0	0
Eddie Jackson	4	1	0.0	0
Akiem Hicks	2	2	0.0	0
Duke Shelley	2	1	0.0	1
Jaylon Johnson	3	0	0.0	0
Sherrick McManis	3	0	0.0	0
Brent Urban	2	0	1.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: HOU -1
Closing total: 46
HOU moneyline: -114
CHI moneyline: +104

Texans closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 46; the game landed 43 — under by 3.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Soldier Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 34°F, wind 1 mph
Referee: Land Clark
Rest: HOU 7 days · CHI 7 days
Coaches: Romeo Crennel vs Matt Nagy