For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
Chicago Bears 36, Texans 7 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 10:16, 1st and 10, on David Montgomery — 14.9 win-probability points to the Bears on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 10:16 · 1st and 10
David Montgomery
Bears
(10:16) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery left tackle for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
32°F
Texans closed -1 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Chicago Bears 36–7 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:16, Bears +14.9% win probability on one snap.
14.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Duke JohnsonBearsQ1 8:53(8:53) 25-Du.Johnson right tackle to HOU 39 for -1 yards (52-K.Mack; 96-A.Hicks). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack), RECOVERED by CHI-52-K.Mack at HOU 41.
11.1pts
Duke JohnsonTexansQ2 10:01(10:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 25-Du.Johnson pushed ob at CHI 19 for 48 yards (39-E.Jackson).
9.0pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Bears won this one — +0.27 expected points per carry, against Texans at -0.35 expected points per carry.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bears won this one — +0.26 expected points per snap, against Texans at -0.17 expected points per snap.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Texans owned this one and still lost it — 7 of 14 on third down, against Bears at 3 of 10 on third down.
Texansthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Staying on schedule
Bears won this one — 56% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Texans at 46% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 15 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Bearshigher on Texans162 of 171 plays carry both curves
(10:16) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery left tackle for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +14.9 for BearsExpected points +6.05 for BearsThe model had Bears 13 points higher than the market did.play 13
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 10:16CHI +15% win prob(10:16) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery left tackle for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 8:53HOU +11% win prob(8:53) 25-Du.Johnson right tackle to HOU 39 for -1 yards (52-K.Mack; 96-A.Hicks). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack), RECOVERED by CHI-52-K.Mack at HOU 41.
2nd · 10:01CHI +9% win prob(10:01) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short left to 25-Du.Johnson pushed ob at CHI 19 for 48 yards (39-E.Jackson).
1st · 7:30HOU +5% win prob(7:30) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky sacked at HOU 46 for -7 yards (23-E.Murray).
2nd · 5:59CHI +5% win prob(5:59) 32-D.Montgomery right tackle to CHI 47 for 13 yards (26-V.Hargreaves). PENALTY on HOU-20-Ju.Reid, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CHI 47.
1st · 2:18CHI +5% win prob(2:18) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short right to 12-A.Robinson pushed ob at HOU 37 for 9 yards (35-K.Crossen).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
David Montgomery's 80-yard rushing touchdown with 10:16 left in the 1st put Chicago Bears ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:16David Montgomery·80-yd TD run80-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
3rd10:41Cairo Santos·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+37–33
4th10:51Cairo Santos·32-yd field goal32-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+37–36
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Texanscategory by categoryBears
Texans1–8Bears
264Total yards410
4.2Yards per play6.9
46%Success rate56%
50%Third-down rate30%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
3Explosive plays6
17First downs22
7Sacks taken3
1Turnovers0
The read
Bears ahead 8–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.17Texans: −0.17 expected points added per play
+0.26Bears: +0.26 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.08Texans: −0.08 expected points added per play
+0.26Bears: +0.26 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.35Texans: −0.35 expected points added per play
+0.27Bears: +0.27 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Texans ran 63 snaps at a 68% dropback rate against Bears’s 59 at 66%. Red-zone trips: Texans 2, Bears 5.
NoteBears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs -0.17.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CHI's pass rate over expected turned over: −5.7 pts in week 13 against +11.4 pts here — they ran more than the situation asked then and threw more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.8 of their own weekly swings across the two.
59 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.1 points.
CHI's sack or hit rate turned over: 6.8% in week 13 against 25.6% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.6 of their own weekly swings across the two.
43 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -16 pts to 22 pts
right on their number · −1.1 vs their 13.9%, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−0.16× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Bears25.6%
leaned — got home · +11.3 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+1.59× that swing) · 43 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCHI's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 11.4 pts, 11.0 points above their season mean of 0.4 pts and 1.8 times their own 6.1-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Houston Texans
48 dressed · 7 inactive
71Tytus HowardT · Every snap100%66 snaps
78Laremy TunsilT · Every snap100%66 snaps
66Nick MartinC · Every snap100%66 snaps
4Deshaun WatsonQB · Full-time98%65 snaps
73Zach FultonG · Full-time94%62 snaps
11Steven MitchellWR · Full-time92%61 snaps
76Brent QvaleT · Full-time80%53 snaps
17Chad HansenWR · Full-time80%53 snaps
16Keke CouteeWR · Heavy rotation74%49 snaps
87Darren FellsTE · Heavy rotation61%40 snaps
88Jordan AkinsTE · Heavy rotation55%36 snaps
25Duke JohnsonRB · Rotational45%30 snaps
38Buddy HowellRB · Rotational35%23 snaps
74Max ScharpingT · Rotational26%17 snaps
81Kahale WarringTE · Situational23%15 snaps
24C.J. ProsiseRB · Situational20%13 snaps
82Isaiah CoulterWR · Situational9%6 snaps
63Roderick JohnsonT · Situational5%3 snaps
40Scottie PhillipsRB · Situational2%1 snap
2AJ McCarronQB · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
John ReidCBPhillip GainesCBHjalte FroholdtGJosh McCownQBCharlie HeckTPharaoh BrownTEBrandin CooksWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bears attack right, the Texans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Texans←Bears→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
D.Montgomery left+15% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(10:16) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery left tackle for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q1 10:16 · Bears · 1st & 10 at CHI 20 · gained 80 · +6.05 EP · +14.5% win probability
160 snaps placed · 11 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 171 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was HOU moving 86 yards from the HOU 14 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; CHI attacks right, HOU attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
171 of 171 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
171
EPA per play
-0.00
Success rate
44%
Yards
673
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR37-0.3562%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30+0.2070%
Texans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR24+0.1258%
Bears0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR8+0.2675%
Bears0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR6+0.4550%
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6+0.1317%
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Bears0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR3——
Texans1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Bears2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Bears1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt11 plays, from the Texans 17 to the Bears 46
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Texans0Bears6
Texans0Bears7
Touchdown2 plays
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 40
Punt4 plays, from the Texans 41 to the Texans 38
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 9 to the Texans 29
The period ended9 plays, from the Bears 21 to the Texans 23
2nd quarter58 plays
Texans0Bears13
Texans0Bears14
Touchdown7 plays, from the Texans 13 to the Texans 1
Texans6Bears14
Texans7Bears14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Texans 14 to the Bears 5
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Bears 33
Texans7Bears16
Texans7Bears22
Texans7Bears23
Touchdown7 plays, from the Bears 34 to the Texans 12
Punt7 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Texans 31
Texans7Bears29
Texans7Bears30
Touchdown17 plays, from the Bears 23 to the Texans 3
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Texans7Bears33
Field goal10 plays, from the Bears 23 to the Texans 21
Turnover on downs19 plays, from the Texans 25 to the Bears 1
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 13 to the Bears 20
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Bears 48 to the Bears 45
4th quarter37 plays
Texans7Bears36
Field goal8 plays, from the Texans 42 to the Texans 12
Punt5 plays, from the Texans 21 to the Texans 23
Punt4 plays, from the Bears 27 to the Bears 30
Punt8 plays, from the Texans 37 to the Texans 23
The period ended12 plays, from the Texans 20 to the Bears 25
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
