2020 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 13, 2020 · Allegiant Stadium

Indianapolis ColtsWinner

Las Vegas Raiders

IND -2.5 ✓O 51.5 ✓DomeColts closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 17.

Indianapolis Colts 44–27 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 5:40, LV +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 5:40IND — LV LV ball · 3rd & 7IND 68%

(5:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 83-D.Waller pushed ob at IND 30 for 29 yards (23-K.Moore). PENALTY on IND-23-K.Moore, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at IND 30.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 5:40LV +13% win prob(5:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 83-D.Waller pushed ob at IND 30 for 29 yards (23-K.Moore). PENALTY on IND-23-K.Moore, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at IND 30.
Q3 · 7:36LV +12% win prob(7:36) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right tackle for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 9:10LV +12% win prob(9:10) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 13-T.Hilton for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-A.Key].
Q2 · 10:43LV +12% win prob(10:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 15-N.Agholor for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Colts	Raiders
Offensive plays	57	68
Total yards	458 (edge)	424
Yards per play	8.0 (edge)	6.2
Expected points added / play	0.39 (edge)	0.00
Success rate	44%	49% (edge)
Dropback rate	49%	71%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.58 (edge)	0.06
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.21 (edge)	-0.14
Third downs	8/11 (edge)	8/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	14 (edge)	7
First downs gained on snaps	20	24 (edge)
Sacks taken	0	0
Turnovers	0 (edge)	3

Colts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.39 expected points added per play vs 0.00.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · LV

Derek CarrQB

31/45, 316 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

3.6 expected points added · -0.8% completion over expected

Passing · IND

Philip RiversQB

19/28, 244 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

16.3 expected points added · +1.9% completion over expected

Rushing · IND

Jonathan TaylorRB

20 att, 150 yds, 2 TD

4.2 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · IND

Nyheim Miller-HinesRB

7 att, 58 yds, 0 TD

1.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · LV

Nelson AgholorWR

5/9 for 100 yds, 1 TD

20% of team targets · 4.4 expected points added

Receiving · IND

T.Y. HiltonWR

5/7 for 86 yds, 2 TD

26% of team targets · 10.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	IND	IND 25	11	69	6:08	Turnover on downs
2	LV	LV 25	5	2	1:03	Punt
3	IND	IND 28	12	63	4:50	Touchdown
4	LV	LV 24	7	76	2:50	Touchdown
5	IND	IND 27	6	26	1:08	Punt
6	LV	LV 17	9	78	3:23	Touchdown
7	IND	IND 32	5	68	1:35	Touchdown
8	LV	LV 25	10	47	5:33	Interception
9	IND	IND 20	13	72	3:30	Turnover on downs
10	LV	LV 25	14	68	5:19	Turnover on downs
11	IND	IND 25	7	75	2:14	Touchdown
12	LV	LV 25	15	70	7:14	Turnover on downs
13	IND	IND 25	12	71	5:50	Touchdown
14	LV	LV 25	2	0	0:08	Fumble
15	IND	LV 26	4	14	2:25	Turnover on downs
16	LV	LV 25	5	23	1:28	Defensive touchdown
17	LV	LV 25	15	60	4:27	Touchdown
18	IND	IND 25	3	0	0:55	End of game

0 of 18 drives ended in points. Longest march: Raiders gained 78 scrimmage yards over 9 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Indianapolis Colts

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Philip Rivers	19/28	244	2	0	0	16.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Jonathan Taylor	20	150	7.5	2	4.2
Nyheim Miller-Hines	7	58	8.3	0	1.6
Michael Pittman	1	3	3.0	0	-0.3
Jordan Wilkins	1	3	3.0	0	0.5
Jacoby Brissett	2	-2	-1.0	0	0.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
T.Y. Hilton	5	7	86	2	26%	10.8
Jack Doyle	3	3	44	0	11%	3.1
Michael Pittman	2	5	42	0	19%	2.8
Zach Pascal	1	2	27	0	7%	1.8
Nyheim Miller-Hines	4	4	17	0	15%	-1.0
Jonathan Taylor	2	2	15	0	7%	1.3
Mo Alie-Cox	1	1	9	0	4%	0.6
Jordan Wilkins	1	2	4	0	7%	-1.3
Marcus Johnson	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Shaquille Leonard	8	3	0	0
Anthony Walker	3	5	0	0
Khari Willis	5	1	1	2
Bobby Okereke	5	1	0	1
Kenny Moore	5	0	1	1
Rock Ya-Sin	4	0	0	1
DeForest Buckner	3	1	0	0
Tavon Wilson	1	2	0	0
T.J. Carrie	2	1	0	0
Grover Stewart	2	0	0	0

Las Vegas Raiders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Derek Carr	31/45	316	2	2	0	3.6
Zay Jones	1/1	29	0	0	0	2.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Josh Jacobs	13	49	3.8	0	-2.6
Derek Carr	3	12	4.0	1	2.8
Jalen Richard	2	10	5.0	0	0.6
Devontae Booker	4	8	2.0	0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Nelson Agholor	5	9	100	1	20%	4.4
Darren Waller	7	10	75	0	22%	3.0
Foster Moreau	1	2	47	1	4%	2.3
Hunter Renfrow	5	7	38	0	16%	-2.2
Jalen Richard	4	5	31	0	11%	-8.0
Josh Jacobs	3	5	25	0	11%	0.5
Henry Ruggs	3	3	18	0	7%	1.3
Devontae Booker	3	3	11	0	7%	0.8
Alec Ingold	1	1	0	0	2%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Johnathan Abram	7	7	0
Nicholas Morrow	3	3	2
Lamarcus Joyner	5	1	1
Nick Kwiatkoski	2	3	0
Nevin Lawson	2	3	0
Erik Harris	0	4	1
Johnathan Hankins	2	2	0
Maurice Hurst	1	2	0
Trayvon Mullen	3	0	1
Maxx Crosby	1	1	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: IND -2.5
Closing total: 51.5
IND moneyline: -130
LV moneyline: +118

Colts closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 17.

Total closed 51.5; the game landed 71 — over by 19.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Allegiant Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: IND 7 days · LV 7 days
Coaches: Frank Reich vs Jon Gruden