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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:42 AM ET · 16 to play
Indianapolis Colts 44 at Las Vegas Raiders 27. Final.
Colts -2.5 ✓O 51.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 14
Indianapolis Colts 44, Raiders 27 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 5:40, 3rd and 7, on Darren Waller — 12.8 win-probability points to the Raiders on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 5:40 · 3rd and 7
Darren Waller
Raiders
(5:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 83-D.Waller pushed ob at IND 30 for 29 yards (23-K.Moore). PENALTY on IND-23-K.Moore, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at IND 30.
Dome
Colts closed -2.5 and covered, winning by 17.
Indianapolis Colts 44–27 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 5:40, Raiders +12.8% win probability on one snap.
12.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
T.Y. HiltonColtsQ2 9:10(9:10) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 13-T.Hilton for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-A.Key].
11.9pts
Jonathan TaylorColtsQ3 7:36(7:36) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right tackle for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
12.4pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Colts won this one — 14 chunk plays, against Raiders at 7 chunk plays.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Colts won this one — no giveaways, against Raiders at 3 giveaways.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Colts won this one — +0.39 expected points per snap, against Raiders at +0.00 expected points per snap.
Coltsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Colts won this one — +0.58 expected points per dropback, against Raiders at +0.06 expected points per dropback.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 20 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Raiders.
MarketModelmodel higher on Raidershigher on Colts166 of 174 plays carry both curves
(5:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 83-D.Waller pushed ob at IND 30 for 29 yards (23-K.Moore). PENALTY on IND-23-K.Moore, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at IND 30.
Swing +12.8 for RaidersExpected points +4.15 for RaidersThe model had Raiders 16 points higher than the market did.play 68
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 5:40LV +13% win prob(5:40) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short left to 83-D.Waller pushed ob at IND 30 for 29 yards (23-K.Moore). PENALTY on IND-23-K.Moore, Horse Collar Tackle, 15 yards, enforced at IND 30.
3rd · 7:36LV +12% win prob(7:36) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right tackle for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 9:10LV +12% win prob(9:10) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 13-T.Hilton for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN [99-A.Key].
2nd · 10:43LV +12% win prob(10:43) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 15-N.Agholor for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 0:18LV +11% win prob(:18) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 87-F.Moreau for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 3:35IND +10% win prob(3:35) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left intended for 83-D.Waller INTERCEPTED by 23-K.Moore at IND -8. Touchback.
3rd · 11:22
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
T.Y. Hilton's 41-yard touchdown catch with 9:10 left in the 2nd put Indianapolis Colts ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 8 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:57Rodrigo Blankenship·25-yd field goal25-yard field goalholder R.Allen · snap L.Rhodes+33–0
1st3:05T.Y. Hilton·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Philip Riversfrom Philip Rivers+710–0
Colts ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.58 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.39Colts: +0.39 expected points added per play
+0.00Raiders: +0.00 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.58Colts: +0.58 expected points added per play
+0.06Raiders: +0.06 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.21Colts: +0.21 expected points added per play
−0.14Raiders: −0.14 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Colts ran 57 snaps at a 49% dropback rate against Raiders’s 68 at 71%. Red-zone trips: Colts 7, Raiders 6.
NoteColts won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.39 expected points added per play vs 0.00.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 14Against their seasonOver Expected
IND's pass rate over expected, −15.0 pts, is past their previous low of −12.3 pts in week 4 — the lowest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
A 2.4-swing turn from week 13.
57 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.4 points.
LV's sack or hit rate turned over: 24.1% in week 13 against 3.6% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 3.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
28 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
IND's sack or hit rate turned over: 16.7% in week 13 against 4.2% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.0 of their own weekly swings across the two.
48 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.2 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 15 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.2 vs their 12.4%, and they swing ±6.2 week to week (−1.33× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Raiders3.6%
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.6 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−1.36× that swing) · 28 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteIND's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -15.0 pts, 10.8 points below their season mean of -4.2 pts and 1.5 times their own 7.4-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Raiders attack right, the Colts attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Colts←Raiders→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
J.Taylor right+17% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(7:36) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor right tackle for 62 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 7:36 · Colts · 2nd & 9 at IND 38 · gained 62 · +5.78 EP · +17.3% win probability
164 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 18 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 18 drives ended in points. The longest march was LV moving 78 yards from the LV 22 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LV attacks right, IND attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
+0.14
Success rate
45%
Yards
880
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Colts1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38+0.5461%
Raiders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.0276%
Colts1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.0127%
Raiders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14-0.1979%
Raiders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR11+0.1236%
Raiders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Colts1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
Raiders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR2——
Colts2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Colts3Raiders0
Field goal13 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Raiders 6
Punt5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 27
Colts9Raiders0
Colts10Raiders0
Touchdown12 plays, from the Colts 28 to the Raiders 7
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Colts10Raiders6
Colts10Raiders7
Touchdown7 plays, from the Raiders 24 to the Colts 47
The period ended3 plays
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt4 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.9 seconds
Colts10Raiders13
Colts10Raiders14
Touchdown10 plays, from the Raiders 17 to the Colts 18
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
Colts16Raiders14
Colts17Raiders14
Touchdown5 plays, from the Colts 32 to the Raiders 41
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.1 seconds
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runCornerCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Intercepted11 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Colts 13
Colts20Raiders14
Field goal19 plays, from the Colts 20 to the Raiders 2
3rd quarter39 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.4 seconds
Colts20Raiders17
Field goal14 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Colts 7
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSix defenders
Colts26Raiders17
Colts27Raiders17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Colts 38
FormationI formationOffense on the fieldTwo backs, two tight ends and one receiverDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Colts27Raiders20
Field goal15 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Colts 5
The period ended3 plays
4th quarter44 plays
Colts33Raiders20
Colts34Raiders20
Touchdown11 plays, from the Colts 25 to the Raiders 3
Fumble lost2 plays
Colts37Raiders20
Field goal6 plays, from the Raiders 26 to the Raiders 17
Colts43Raiders20
Touchdown5 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Raiders 48
Colts44Raiders20
Colts44Raiders26
Colts44Raiders27
Touchdown15 plays, from the Raiders 25 to the Colts 5
The period ended4 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Coltscategory by categoryRaiders
Colts3
Raiders0
