2020 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 13, 2020 · Hard Rock Stadium

Kansas City ChiefsWinner

Miami Dolphins

KC -7.5 no coverO 51.5 ✓Chiefs closed -7.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Kansas City Chiefs 33–27. Biggest swing: Q1 9:08, KC +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 9:08KC — MIA KC ball · 1st & 15KC 85%

(9:08) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 24-By.Jones (43-A.Van Ginkel) at MIA 23. 24-By.Jones to MIA 38 for 15 yards (14-S.Watkins, 15-P.Mahomes). FUMBLES (14-S.Watkins), reco

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 9:08KC +13% win prob(9:08) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 24-By.Jones (43-A.Van Ginkel) at MIA 23. 24-By.Jones to MIA 38 for 15 yards (14-S.Watkins, 15-P.Mahomes). FUMBLES (14-S.Watkins), recovered by MIA-91-E.Ogbah at MIA 43.
Q1 · 0:52KC +10% win prob(:52) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 25-C.Edwards-Helaire INTERCEPTED by 21-E.Rowe at MIA 31. 21-E.Rowe to KC 47 for 22 yards (17-M.Hardman; 25-C.Edwards-Helaire).
Q1 · 5:41KC +10% win prob(5:41) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at KC 3 for -30 yards (55-J.Baker).
Q1 · 7:01KC +9% win prob(7:01) 7-J.Sanders 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-50-B.Ferguson, Holder-2-M.Haack.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Chiefs	Dolphins
Offensive plays	60	76
Total yards	449 (edge)	367
Yards per play	7.5 (edge)	4.8
Expected points added / play	0.03 (edge)	-0.01
Success rate	48% (edge)	47%
Dropback rate	65%	76%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.09 (edge)	0.01
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.09	-0.05 (edge)
Third downs	5/11	7/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	11 (edge)	3
First downs gained on snaps	21	23 (edge)
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	4
Turnovers	4	1 (edge)

Chiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.01.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · KC

Patrick MahomesQB

24/34, 393 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT

7.4 expected points added · +5.7% completion over expected

Passing · MIA

Tua TagovailoaQB

28/48, 316 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

2.6 expected points added · -3.2% completion over expected

Rushing · MIA

DeAndre WashingtonRB

13 att, 35 yds, 0 TD

-2.9 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · KC

Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB

16 att, 32 yds, 0 TD

-6.0 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · KC

Travis KelceTE

8/10 for 136 yds, 1 TD

29% of team targets · 5.6 expected points added

Receiving · MIA

Lynn BowdenWR

7/9 for 82 yds, 0 TD

20% of team targets · 2.9 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIA	MIA 25	5	1	0:58	Punt
2	KC	KC 20	8	58	5:06	Interception
3	MIA	MIA 43	6	30	2:00	Turnover on downs
4	KC	KC 35	4	-23	2:06	Punt
5	MIA	KC 44	8	44	3:15	Touchdown
6	KC	KC 25	3	37	0:58	Interception
7	MIA	KC 47	10	39	5:23	Turnover on downs
8	KC	KC 25	6	75	2:04	Touchdown
9	MIA	MIA 25	5	-3	2:18	Punt
10	KC	KC 21	4	-5	1:42	Punt
11	MIA	MIA 22	4	15	1:18	Interception
12	KC	KC 26	10	59	2:15	Touchdown
13	MIA	MIA 25	4	17	0:37	End of half
14	KC	KC 25	5	75	1:10	Touchdown
15	MIA	MIA 25	5	5	1:02	Defensive touchdown
16	MIA	MIA 25	9	25	2:28	Punt
17	KC	KC 20	5	64	2:57	Fumble
18	MIA	MIA 7	2	-7	0:31	Turnover on downs
19	KC	KC 46	5	4	1:35	Punt
20	MIA	MIA 18	8	23	2:40	Punt
21	KC	KC 8	8	68	3:18	Interception
22	MIA	MIA 20	7	80	2:16	Touchdown
23	KC	KC 25	5	5	1:56	Punt
24	MIA	MIA 25	15	67	5:52	Touchdown
25	KC	KC 25	11	32	3:07	Turnover on downs
26	MIA	MIA 25	6	31	0:52	Turnover on downs
27	KC	MIA 45	2	0	0:16	End of game

0 of 27 drives ended in points. Longest march: Dolphins gained 80 scrimmage yards over 7 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Kansas City Chiefs

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Patrick Mahomes	24/34	393	2	3	3	7.4

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Tyreek Hill	1	32	32.0	1	3.3
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	16	32	2.0	0	-6.0
Le'Veon Bell	2	21	10.5	0	1.6
Patrick Mahomes	5	9	1.8	0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Travis Kelce	8	10	136	1	29%	5.6
Tyreek Hill	3	7	79	1	21%	1.8
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	5	6	59	0	18%	-1.1
Sammy Watkins	2	3	52	0	9%	3.3
Mecole Hardman	3	3	40	0	9%	-3.3
Le'Veon Bell	2	3	14	0	9%	0.5
Demarcus Robinson	1	1	13	0	3%	0.6
Anthony Sherman	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
L'Jarius Sneed	7	1	0.0	1
Daniel Sorensen	4	3	0.0	0
Bashaud Breeland	4	1	0.0	3
Chris Jones	4	0	1.0	1
Ben Niemann	3	1	0.0	0
Derrick Nnadi	3	1	0.0	0
Mike Pennel	2	2	0.0	0
Tanoh Kpassagnon	2	1	0.0	0
Juan Thornhill	3	0	0.0	0
Willie Gay	2	1	0.0	0

Miami Dolphins

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tua Tagovailoa	28/48	316	2	1	4	2.6
Lynn Bowden	0/1	0	0	0	0	-0.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
DeAndre Washington	13	35	2.7	0	-2.9
Tua Tagovailoa	6	24	4.0	1	-0.7
Patrick Laird	4	19	4.8	0	1.4
Lynn Bowden	1	2	2.0	0	-0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Lynn Bowden	7	9	82	0	20%	2.9
Mack Hollins	5	9	66	0	20%	0.8
Mike Gesicki	5	6	65	2	13%	7.4
Jakeem Grant	3	5	32	0	11%	-0.7
Adam Shaheen	2	3	26	0	7%	0.7
Durham Smythe	2	3	19	0	7%	1.6
DeAndre Washington	2	4	17	0	9%	0.7
Malcolm Perry	1	2	5	0	4%	-0.4
Patrick Laird	1	1	4	0	2%	0.0
DeVante Parker	0	2	0	0	4%	-1.8
Antonio Callaway	0	2	0	0	4%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jerome Baker	5	4	2.5	0	0
Brandon Jones	4	5	0.0	0	0
Eric Rowe	5	2	0.0	1	2
Christian Wilkins	2	3	0.5	0	0
Nik Needham	2	2	0.0	0	0
Raekwon Davis	2	2	0.0	0	0
Shaq Lawson	3	1	0.0	0	0
Zach Sieler	3	0	0.0	0	0
Byron Jones	2	1	0.0	1	1
Nate Holley	1	1	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: KC -7.5
Closing total: 51.5
KC moneyline: -330
MIA moneyline: +281

Chiefs closed -7.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 51.5; the game landed 60 — over by 8.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 81°F, wind 8 mph
Referee: Clay Martin
Rest: KC 7 days · MIA 7 days
Coaches: Andy Reid vs Brian Flores