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2020 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 13, 2020 · Hard Rock Stadium
Final
ChiefsKansas City33
BY 6final margin
DolphinsMiami27
Kansas City Chiefs 33 at Miami Dolphins 27. Final.
Chiefs -7.5 no coverO 51.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 14
Kansas City Chiefs 33, Dolphins 27 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 9:08, 1st and 15, on Byron Jones — 12.7 win-probability points to the Dolphins on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:08 · 1st and 15
Byron Jones
Dolphins
(9:08) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 24-By.Jones (43-A.Van Ginkel) at MIA 23. 24-By.Jones to MIA 38 for 15 yards (14-S.Watkins, 15-P.Mahomes). FUMBLES (14-S.Watkins), recovered by MIA-91-E.Ogbah at MIA 43.
Chiefs closed -7.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Kansas City Chiefs 33–27. Biggest swing: Q1 9:08, Dolphins +12.7% win probability on one snap.
12.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Patrick MahomesDolphinsQ1 5:41(5:41) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at KC 3 for -30 yards (55-J.Baker).
9.8pts
Eric RoweDolphinsQ1 0:52(:52) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 25-C.Edwards-Helaire INTERCEPTED by 21-E.Rowe at MIA 31. 21-E.Rowe to KC 47 for 22 yards (17-M.Hardman; 25-C.Edwards-Helaire).
10.1pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Chiefs won this one — 11 chunk plays, against Dolphins at 3 chunk plays.
Chiefsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — 1 giveaway, against Chiefs at 4 giveaways.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Dolphins owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 4 trips, against Chiefs at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Dolphinsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
5 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 14.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 34 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Dolphins.
MarketModelmodel higher on Dolphinshigher on Chiefs182 of 194 plays carry both curves
(9:08) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 24-By.Jones (43-A.Van Ginkel) at MIA 23. 24-By.Jones to MIA 38 for 15 yards (14-S.Watkins, 15-P.Mahomes). FUMBLES (14-S.Watkins), reco
Swing +12.7 for DolphinsExpected points +6.32 for DolphinsThe model had Dolphins 24 points higher than the market did.play 15
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 9:08KC +13% win prob(9:08) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 24-By.Jones (43-A.Van Ginkel) at MIA 23. 24-By.Jones to MIA 38 for 15 yards (14-S.Watkins, 15-P.Mahomes). FUMBLES (14-S.Watkins), recovered by MIA-91-E.Ogbah at MIA 43.
1st · 0:52KC +10% win prob(:52) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 25-C.Edwards-Helaire INTERCEPTED by 21-E.Rowe at MIA 31. 21-E.Rowe to KC 47 for 22 yards (17-M.Hardman; 25-C.Edwards-Helaire).
1st · 5:41KC +10% win prob(5:41) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at KC 3 for -30 yards (55-J.Baker).
1st · 7:01KC +9% win prob(7:01) 7-J.Sanders 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-50-B.Ferguson, Holder-2-M.Haack.
2nd · 2:48MIA +8% win prob(2:48) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 87-T.Kelce to KC 42 for 16 yards (29-Br.Jones) [43-A.Van Ginkel]. PENALTY on MIA-90-S.Lawson, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced at KC 42.
3rd · 13:58MIA +7% win prob
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Travis Kelce's 6-yard touchdown catch with 0:42 left in the 2nd put Kansas City Chiefs ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
Lead
1st1:42Mike Gesicki·7-yd TD catch7-yard touchdown catchfrom Tua Tagovailoafrom Tua Tagovailoa+70–7
2nd10:18Jason Sanders·31-yd field goal31-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap B.Ferguson+30–10
4th1:12Harrison Butker·46-yd field goal46-yard field goalholder T.Townsend · snap J.Winchester+333–24
4th0:21Jason Sanders·44-yd field goal44-yard field goalholder M.Haack · snap B.Ferguson+333–27
11 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Chiefscategory by categoryDolphins
Chiefs5–4Dolphins
449Total yards367
7.5Yards per play4.8
48%Success rate47%
45%Third-down rate47%
1Red-zone touchdowns2
11Explosive plays3
21First downs23
3Sacks taken4
4Turnovers1
The read
Chiefs ahead 5–4 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Dolphins, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.03Chiefs: +0.03 expected points added per play
−0.01Dolphins: −0.01 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.09Chiefs: +0.09 expected points added per play
+0.01Dolphins: +0.01 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.09Chiefs: −0.09 expected points added per play
−0.05Dolphins: −0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Chiefs ran 60 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Dolphins’s 76 at 76%. Red-zone trips: Chiefs 5, Dolphins 4.
NoteChiefs won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.01.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
MIA's sack or hit rate turned over: 32.4% in week 13 against 15.4% here — they got home then and stayed blocked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
39 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.7 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -15 pts to 29 pts
right on their number · −1.8 vs their 15.6%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (−0.34× that swing) · 58 dropbacks
Dolphins15.4%
right on their number · −0.1 vs their 15.5%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.02× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteMIA's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 73.8%, 16.0 points above their season mean of 57.7% and 1.3 times their own 12.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Kansas City Chiefs
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
73Nick AllegrettiG · Every snap100%62 snaps
77Andrew WylieT · Every snap100%62 snaps
72Eric FisherT · Every snap100%62 snaps
62Austin ReiterC · Every snap100%62 snaps
15Patrick MahomesQB · Every snap100%62 snaps
10Tyreek HillWR · Full-time92%57 snaps
87Travis KelceTE · Full-time90%56 snaps
14Sammy WatkinsWR · Full-time87%54 snaps
25Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB · Heavy rotation74%46 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Dolphins attack right, the Chiefs attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Chiefs←Dolphins→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
P.Mahomes pass−19% win probabilitymoment 1 of 4
(9:08) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right intended for 87-T.Kelce INTERCEPTED by 24-By.Jones (43-A.Van Ginkel) at MIA 23. 24-By.Jones to MIA 38 for 15 yards (14-S.Watkins, 15-P.Mahomes). FUMBLES (14-S.Watkins), recovered by MIA-91-E.Ogbah at MIA 43.
Q1 9:08 · Chiefs · 1st & 15 at MIA 27 · gained nothing · -6.32 EP · −18.7% win probability
180 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 194 plays across 27 drives, personnel groupings on 194 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
9 of 27 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIA moving 80 yards from the MIA 20 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIA attacks right, KC attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
194 of 194 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
194
EPA per play
-0.01
Success rate
45%
Yards
815
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Chiefs1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR46-0.0970%
Dolphins2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR27-0.1470%
Dolphins3 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR25+0.1980%
Dolphins1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR9+0.0467%
Chiefs1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR8+0.1625%
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR7-0.3943%
Chiefs2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR4——
Dolphins2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Dolphins1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR2——
Chiefs1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR2——
Dolphins1 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR2——
snapsepapass rate
194 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
194 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter38 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 26
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted9 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Dolphins 22
No good6 plays, from the Dolphins 43 to the Chiefs 27
Punt4 plays
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, one linebacker and six backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.4 seconds
Chiefs0Dolphins6
Chiefs0Dolphins7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Chiefs 44 to the Chiefs 7
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.8 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Dolphins 38
The period ended2 plays
2nd quarter49 plays
Chiefs0Dolphins10
Field goal10 plays, from the Chiefs 45 to the Chiefs 13
Chiefs6Dolphins10
Chiefs7Dolphins10
Touchdown6 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Dolphins 32
Punt6 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 42
Punt4 plays
Intercepted4 plays, from the Dolphins 22 to the Dolphins 37
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runHitchCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Chiefs13Dolphins10
Chiefs14Dolphins10
Touchdown12 plays, from the Chiefs 26 to the Dolphins 6
The period ended7 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to midfield
3rd quarter50 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, three linebackers and six backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Chiefs20Dolphins10
Chiefs21Dolphins10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Dolphins 44
Chiefs27Dolphins10
Touchdown5 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Dolphins 30
Chiefs28Dolphins10
Punt9 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to midfield
Fumble lost6 plays, from the Chiefs 20 to the Dolphins 42
Chiefs30Dolphins10
Punt7 plays, from the Chiefs 46 to midfield
Punt8 plays, from the Dolphins 18 to the Dolphins 49
The period ended7 plays, from the Chiefs 8 to the Dolphins 49
4th quarter57 plays
Intercepted2 plays, from the Dolphins 36 to the Dolphins 24
Chiefs30Dolphins16
Chiefs30Dolphins17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Dolphins 20 to the Chiefs 29
Punt6 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Chiefs 34
Chiefs30Dolphins23
Chiefs30Dolphins24
Touchdown18 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Chiefs 1
Chiefs33Dolphins24
Field goal14 plays, from the Chiefs 25 to the Dolphins 18
Chiefs33Dolphins27
Field goal7 plays, from the Dolphins 25 to the Chiefs 26
The period ended3 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Chiefs -7.5
Closing total
51.5
Chiefs moneyline
-330
Dolphins moneyline
+281
Chiefs closed -7.5, won by 6 — but didn't cover.
Total closed 51.5; the game landed 60 — over by 8.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Hard Rock Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Warm, 80°F at kickoff; still at 4 mph out of the south; partly cloudy.
Referee
Clay Martin
Rest
Chiefs 7 days · Dolphins 7 days
Coaches
Andy Reid vs Brian Flores
(13:58) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 10-T.Hill for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 3:47MIA +6% win prob(3:47) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short right to 88-M.Gesicki to KC 31 for 14 yards (38-L.Sneed).
2nd · 4:27MIA +6% win prob(4:27) 5-T.Townsend punts 58 yards to MIA 26, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-J.Grant to MIA 22 for -4 yards (20-A.Hamilton; 56-B.Niemann).
Chiefscategory by categoryDolphins
Chiefs0
Dolphins6
