2020 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 13, 2020 · Raymond James Stadium

Minnesota Vikings

Tampa Bay BuccaneersWinner

TB -7 ✓U 52.5 ✓Buccaneers closed -7 and covered, winning by 12.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26–14. Biggest swing: Q2 7:48, TB +13% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 7:48MIN — TB TB ball · 3rd & 4TB 57%

(7:48) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 10-S.Miller for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 7:48TB +13% win prob(7:48) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 10-S.Miller for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 9:35MIN +7% win prob(9:35) 5-D.Bailey 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.
Q2 · 4:42MIN +6% win prob(4:42) 5-D.Bailey 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.
Q1 · 3:04TB +6% win prob(3:04) (Shotgun) 33-D.Cook left tackle to TB 28 for 3 yards (54-L.David).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Vikings	Buccaneers
Offensive plays	77	45
Total yards	337 (edge)	305
Yards per play	4.4	6.8 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.16	0.22 (edge)
Success rate	51% (edge)	47%
Dropback rate	62%	49%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.14	0.40 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.20 (edge)	0.05
Third downs	5/15	5/10 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6	7 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	26 (edge)	14
Sacks taken	6	0 (edge)
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Vikings outgained Buccaneers 337–305 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

24/37, 225 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

4.2 expected points added · +1.7% completion over expected

Passing · TB

Tom BradyQB

15/23, 196 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

8.7 expected points added · +4.7% completion over expected

Rushing · MIN

Dalvin CookRB

22 att, 102 yds, 1 TD

6.1 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · TB

Ronald JonesRB

18 att, 80 yds, 1 TD

-0.6 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Irv SmithTE

4/4 for 63 yds, 1 TD

11% of team targets · 5.5 expected points added

Receiving · TB

Mike EvansWR

3/5 for 56 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 2.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	MIN	MIN 25	10	30	4:58	Punt
2	TB	TB 12	6	21	2:30	Punt
3	MIN	MIN 16	15	79	8:15	Touchdown
4	TB	TB 25	5	3	0:53	Punt
5	MIN	MIN 34	8	35	3:54	Turnover on downs
6	TB	TB 26	5	74	1:49	Touchdown
7	MIN	MIN 25	8	44	3:04	Turnover on downs
8	TB	TB 44	11	41	3:53	Touchdown
9	MIN	MIN 25	5	3	0:23	Punt
10	TB	TB 28	4	25	0:21	End of half
11	TB	TB 25	11	75	4:51	Touchdown
12	MIN	MIN 25	17	77	8:33	Touchdown
13	TB	TB 25	5	11	0:51	Punt
14	MIN	MIN 22	12	50	6:45	Turnover on downs
15	TB	TB 36	8	34	3:44	Turnover on downs
16	MIN	MIN 25	13	19	3:11	Fumble
17	TB	MIN 44	5	21	2:05	End of game

0 of 17 drives ended in points. Longest march: Vikings gained 79 scrimmage yards over 15 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	24/37	225	1	0	6	4.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Dalvin Cook	22	102	4.6	1	6.1
Kirk Cousins	5	41	8.2	0	3.8
Ameer Abdullah	3	11	3.7	0	-0.4
Mike Boone	2	8	4.0	0	-0.1
C.J. Ham	1	0	0.0	0	-1.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Irv Smith	4	4	63	1	11%	5.5
Tyler Conklin	5	5	40	0	14%	4.9
Justin Jefferson	4	8	39	0	23%	3.8
Adam Thielen	3	4	39	0	11%	4.4
C.J. Ham	3	3	22	0	9%	2.0
Ameer Abdullah	2	2	10	0	6%	0.5
Dalvin Cook	2	4	8	0	11%	-1.6
Mike Boone	1	1	4	0	3%	-0.1
Chad Beebe	0	3	0	0	9%	-1.8
Tajae Sharpe	0	1	0	0	3%	-1.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Todd Davis	3	4	0
Harrison Smith	3	3	0
Jeff Gladney	3	2	0
Eric Wilson	2	3	1
Ifeadi Odenigbo	2	1	0
Chris Jones	3	0	0
Cameron Dantzler	3	0	1
Anthony Harris	2	1	0
D.J. Wonnum	1	1	0
Shamar Stephen	1	1	0

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Tom Brady	15/23	196	2	0	0	8.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Ronald Jones	18	80	4.4	1	-0.6
LeSean McCoy	4	32	8.0	0	2.6
Tom Brady	3	-2	-0.7	0	-2.5
Ke'Shawn Vaughn	1	-3	-3.0	0	-0.9

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Mike Evans	3	5	56	0	23%	2.3
Antonio Brown	5	5	49	0	23%	2.3
Scott Miller	1	2	48	1	9%	3.6
Chris Godwin	2	3	25	0	14%	1.0
Cameron Brate	1	1	9	0	5%	-0.0
Ronald Jones	1	2	4	0	9%	-0.5
LeSean McCoy	1	1	3	0	5%	1.4
Rob Gronkowski	1	2	2	1	9%	-0.6
Antony Auclair	0	1	0	0	5%	-0.7

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Antoine Winfield	10	2	1.0	0
Devin White	7	2	0.0	0
Lavonte David	5	4	0.0	1
Carlton Davis	4	2	0.0	1
Ndamukong Suh	2	4	1.0	0
Rakeem Nunez-Roches	2	3	0.0	0
Jordan Whitehead	5	0	0.0	0
Sean Murphy-Bunting	4	1	0.0	0
William Gholston	2	3	0.0	0
Shaquil Barrett	4	0	2.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TB -7
Closing total: 52.5
MIN moneyline: +271
TB moneyline: -317

Buccaneers closed -7 and covered, winning by 12.

Total closed 52.5; the game landed 40 — under by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 78°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Brad Allen
Rest: MIN 7 days · TB 14 days
Coaches: Mike Zimmer vs Bruce Arians