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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:36 AM ET · 16 to play
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 24 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Vikings.
MarketModelmodel higher on Buccaneershigher on Vikings157 of 168 plays carry both curves
(7:48) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 10-S.Miller for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +13.4 for BuccaneersExpected points +5.08 for BuccaneersThe model had Vikings 17 points higher than the market did.play 51
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 7:48TB +13% win prob(7:48) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 10-S.Miller for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 9:35MIN +7% win prob(9:35) 5-D.Bailey 36 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.
2nd · 4:42MIN +6% win prob(4:42) 5-D.Bailey 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.
1st · 3:04TB +6% win prob(3:04) (Shotgun) 33-D.Cook left tackle to TB 28 for 3 yards (54-L.David).
1st · 0:14TB +5% win prob(:14) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 31-A.Abdullah to TB 5 for 6 yards (31-A.Winfield; 23-S.Murphy-Bunting) [93-N.Suh].
2nd · 11:39TB +5% win prob(11:39) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson to TB 28 for 5 yards (24-C.Davis; 31-A.Winfield). PENALTY on TB-24-C.Davis, Horse Collar Tackle, 14 yards, enforced at TB 28.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Scott Miller's 48-yard touchdown catch with 7:48 left in the 2nd put Tampa Bay Buccaneers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 5 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd14:22Dalvin Cook·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide left+66–0
2nd7:48Scott Miller·48-yd TD catch48-yard touchdown catchfrom Tom Bradyfrom Tom BradyLead never changed again+76–7
4th5:20Ryan Succop·48-yd field goal48-yard field goalholder B.Pinion · snap Z.Triner+314–26
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Vikingscategory by categoryBuccaneers
Vikings3–5Buccaneers
337Total yards305
4.4Yards per play6.8
51%Success rate47%
33%Third-down rate50%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
6Explosive plays7
26First downs14
6Sacks taken0
1Turnovers0
The read
Buccaneers ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.40 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.16Vikings: +0.16 expected points added per play
+0.22Buccaneers: +0.22 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.14Vikings: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.40Buccaneers: +0.40 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.20Vikings: +0.20 expected points added per play
+0.05Buccaneers: +0.05 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Vikings ran 77 snaps at a 62% dropback rate against Buccaneers’s 45 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Vikings 4, Buccaneers 4.
NoteVikings outgained Buccaneers 337-305 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 14Against their seasonOver Expected
TB's pass rate over expected, −9.9 pts, is past their previous low of −4.9 pts in week 1 — the lowest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
45 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 29 pts
right on their number · +2.4 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 22 dropbacks
Buccaneers25.0%
leaned — got home · +8.0 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±7.8 week to week (+1.03× that swing) · 48 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteTB's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -9.9 pts, 16.0 points below their season mean of 6.1 pts and 1.8 times their own 8.8-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Buccaneers attack right, the Vikings attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Vikings←Buccaneers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Brady pass+18% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(7:48) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 10-S.Miller for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 7:48 · Buccaneers · 3rd & 4 at MIN 48 · gained 48 · +5.08 EP · +17.7% win probability
155 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 168 plays across 17 drives, personnel groupings on 168 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 17 drives ended in points. The longest march was MIN moving 84 yards from the MIN 16 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; TB attacks right, MIN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
168 of 168 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
168
EPA per play
+0.07
Success rate
42%
Yards
640
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR27-0.0174%
Buccaneers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR26+0.1958%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR22+0.0950%
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR9+0.3122%
Vikings2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR6+0.6067%
Vikings0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR6-0.2283%
Vikings2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR5+0.560%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR5+0.530%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR4——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Buccaneers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Buccaneers1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Buccaneers1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR1——
Vikings2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
168 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
168 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter31 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Buccaneers 32
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 12 to the Buccaneers 33
The period ended14 plays, from the Vikings 16 to the Buccaneers 11
2nd quarter58 plays
Vikings6Buccaneers0
Touchdown3 plays, from the Buccaneers 5 to the Buccaneers 1
Punt5 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 28
No good8 plays, from the Vikings 34 to the Buccaneers 11
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runPostCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.9 seconds
Vikings6Buccaneers6
Vikings6Buccaneers7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Buccaneers 26 to the Vikings 48
No good10 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Buccaneers 31
Vikings6Buccaneers13
Vikings6Buccaneers14
Touchdown13 plays, from the Buccaneers 44 to the Vikings 1
Punt6 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 28
Vikings6Buccaneers17
Field goal7 plays, from the Buccaneers 28 to the Vikings 1
3rd quarter39 plays
Vikings6Buccaneers23
Touchdown11 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Vikings 2
Vikings12Buccaneers23
Vikings14Buccaneers23
Touchdown20 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Buccaneers 14
Punt6 plays, from the Buccaneers 25 to the Buccaneers 31
The period ended2 plays
4th quarter40 plays
No good11 plays, from the Vikings 47 to the Buccaneers 8
Vikings14Buccaneers26
Field goal8 plays, from the Buccaneers 36 to the Vikings 30
Fumble lost14 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Buccaneers 38
The period ended7 plays, from the Vikings 44 to the Vikings 23
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Buccaneers -7
Closing total
52.5
Vikings moneyline
+271
Buccaneers moneyline
-317
Buccaneers closed -7 and covered, winning by 12.
Total closed 52.5; the game landed 40 — under by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
Raymond James Stadium
Roof / surface
outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather
Mild, 73°F at kickoff; still at 3 mph out of the south-east; overcast.
Referee
Brad Allen
Rest
Vikings 7 days · Buccaneers 14 days
Coaches
Mike Zimmer vs Bruce Arians
2nd · 0:01
TB +5% win prob
(:01) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep right to 87-R.Gronkowski. PENALTY on MIN-40-T.Davis, Defensive Pass Interference, 46 yards, enforced at MIN 47 - No Play.
4th · 10:28MIN +5% win prob(10:28) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins sacked at TB 16 for -8 yards (31-A.Winfield). FUMBLES (31-A.Winfield) [31-A.Winfield], and recovers at TB 20.
