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polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:21 AM ET · 16 to play
New England Patriots 3 at Los Angeles Rams 24. Final.
Rams -5 ✓U 43.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 14
Los Angeles Rams 24, Patriots 3 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 15:00, 2nd and 9, on Kenny Young — 14.9 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 15:00 · 2nd and 9
Kenny Young
Rams
(15:00) 1-C.Newton pass short right intended for 37-D.Harris INTERCEPTED by 41-K.Young at LA 21. 41-K.Young for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Dome
Rams closed -5 and covered, winning by 21.
Los Angeles Rams 24–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 15:00, Rams +14.9% win probability on one snap.
14.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Cam AkersRamsQ1 14:12(14:12) 23-C.Akers left tackle pushed ob at NE 10 for 35 yards (32-D.McCourty).
5.1pts
Myles BryantPatriotsQ1 1:00(1:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 17-R.Woods INTERCEPTED by 41-M.Bryant at LA 32. 41-M.Bryant for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 17-R.Woods INTERCEPTED by 41-M.Bryant at LA 32. 41-M.Bryant to LA 32 for no gain (17-R.Woods).
6.2pts
What separated them
Every snap
Rams won this one — -0.03 expected points per snap, against Patriots at -0.55 expected points per snap.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Rams won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Patriots at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Rams won this one — -0.14 expected points per dropback, against Patriots at -0.81 expected points per dropback.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Rams won this one — +0.06 expected points per carry, against Patriots at -0.25 expected points per carry.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 4.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
MarketModelmodel higher on Ramshigher on Patriots153 of 163 plays carry both curves
(15:00) 1-C.Newton pass short right intended for 37-D.Harris INTERCEPTED by 41-K.Young at LA 21. 41-K.Young for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +14.9 for RamsExpected points +11.19 for RamsThe model had Patriots 9 points higher than the market did.play 42
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 15:00NE +15% win prob(15:00) 1-C.Newton pass short right intended for 37-D.Harris INTERCEPTED by 41-K.Young at LA 21. 41-K.Young for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 1:00NE +6% win prob(1:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 17-R.Woods INTERCEPTED by 41-M.Bryant at LA 32. 41-M.Bryant for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right intended for 17-R.Woods INTERCEPTED by 41-M.Bryant at LA 32. 41-M.Bryant to LA 32 for no gain (17-R.Woods).
1st · 14:12LA +5% win prob(14:12) 23-C.Akers left tackle pushed ob at NE 10 for 35 yards (32-D.McCourty).
1st · 11:23LA +5% win prob(11:23) 16-J.Goff up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 6:52NE +5% win prob(6:52) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton left tackle to LA 4 for -2 yards (58-J.Hollins).
1st · 7:37LA +4% win prob(7:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 17-R.Woods to NE 36 for 14 yards (70-A.Butler).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Jared Goff's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 11:23 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
1st11:23Jared Goff·1-yd TD run1-yard rushing touchdownLead never changed again+70–7
1st5:20Matt Gay·35-yd field goal35-yard field goalholder J.Hekker · snap J.McQuaide+30–10
2nd1:08Nick Folk·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder J.Bailey · snap J.Cardona+33–17
3rd1:38Cooper Kupp·2-yd TD catch2-yard touchdown catchfrom Jared Gofffrom Jared Goff+73–24
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Patriotscategory by categoryRams
Patriots0–7Rams
220Total yards319
3.8Yards per play5.2
34%Success rate41%
21%Third-down rate21%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
4Explosive plays6
10First downs16
6Sacks taken1
1Turnovers1
The read
Rams ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.81 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.55Patriots: −0.55 expected points added per play
−0.03Rams: −0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.81Patriots: −0.81 expected points added per play
−0.14Rams: −0.14 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.25Patriots: −0.25 expected points added per play
+0.06Rams: +0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 58 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Rams’s 61 at 44%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 4, Rams 3.
NoteRams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.55.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 14Against their seasonTendencies
LA's sack or hit rate, 29.0%, is past their previous high of 26.0% in week 10 — the highest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
A 2.5-swing turn from week 13.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points.
LA's early-down pass rate turned over: 59.3% in week 13 against 40.0% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.3 points.
LA's pass rate over expected turned over: +9.0 pts in week 13 against −8.1 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · −1.1 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.16× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Rams29.0%
leaned — got home · +13.0 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+1.96× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteLA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 29.0%, 13.0 points above their season mean of 16.0% and 2.0 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Patriots←Rams→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.Newton pass−17% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(15:00) 1-C.Newton pass short right intended for 37-D.Harris INTERCEPTED by 41-K.Young at LA 21. 41-K.Young for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 15:00 · Patriots · 2nd & 9 at LA 19 · gained nothing · -11.19 EP · −17.1% win probability
151 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 163 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
4 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 90 yards from the LA 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
163 of 163 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
163
EPA per play
-0.23
Success rate
36%
Yards
538
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Rams1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR43+0.0628%
Patriots1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.6067%
Patriots2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR23-0.3030%
Rams1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR18-0.2478%
Patriots2 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR4——
Patriots2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
Patriots0Rams6
Patriots0Rams7
Touchdown9 plays, from the Rams 25 to the Patriots 1
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 26
Patriots0Rams10
Field goal11 plays, from the Rams 23 to the Patriots 17
Punt5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 33
Intercepted7 plays, from the Rams 13 to the Rams 29
The period ended3 plays, from the Rams 32 to the Rams 20
2nd quarter45 plays
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxFour defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.5 seconds
Patriots0Rams16
Touchdown1 play
Patriots0Rams17
Turnover on downs14 plays, from the Patriots 40 to the Rams 2
Punt7 plays, from the Rams 4 to the Rams 25
Patriots3Rams17
Field goal10 plays, from the Patriots 32 to the Rams 11
Punt6 plays, from the Rams 26 to the Rams 34
The period ended6 plays, from the Patriots 37 to the Patriots 41
3rd quarter33 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Rams 42
Patriots3Rams23
Patriots3Rams24
Touchdown19 plays, from the Rams 10 to the Patriots 2
The period ended5 plays, from the Patriots 25 to the Patriots 31
4th quarter44 plays
Punt1 play
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 30 to the Rams 38
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 6 to the Rams 9
Turnover on downs7 plays, from the Rams 34 to the Rams 16
Punt10 plays, from the Rams 16 to the Rams 26
Punt4 plays, from the Patriots 28 to the Patriots 34
Punt4 plays, from the Rams 18 to the Rams 22
Turnover on downs4 plays, from midfield to the Rams 43
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Rams -5
Closing total
43.5
Patriots moneyline
+201
Rams moneyline
-228
Rams closed -5 and covered, winning by 21.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 27 — under by 16.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
SoFi Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · matrixturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Craig Wrolstad
Rest
Patriots 4 days · Rams 4 days
Coaches
Bill Belichick vs Sean McVay
1st · 14:23LA +3% win prob(14:23) PENALTY on NE-55-J.Simon, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at 50 - No Play.
1st · 6:29NE +3% win prob(6:29) (No Huddle) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle. PENALTY on LA-16-J.Goff, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 25.
