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polling · 1800s tick · as of 11:25 PM ET · 13 to play · 1 final
Game Center
Game Center
2020 Week 14 · Thu, Dec 10, 2020 · SoFi Stadium
FinalThe verdict · 2020 Week 14
It turned at Q2 15:00, 2nd and 9, on Kenny Young — 14.9 win-probability points to the Rams on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
Los Angeles Rams 24–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 15:00, Rams +14.9% win probability on one snap.
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 15:00 · 2nd and 9
Kenny Young
Rams
(15:00) 1-C.Newton pass short right intended for 37-D.Harris INTERCEPTED by 41-K.Young at LA 21. 41-K.Young for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
14.9
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
What separated them
Every snap
Rams won this one — -0.03 expected points per snap, against Patriots at -0.55 expected points per snap.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Rams won this one — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Patriots at 0 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Rams won this one — -0.14 expected points per dropback, against Patriots at -0.81 expected points per dropback.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Rams won this one — +0.06 expected points per carry, against Patriots at -0.25 expected points per carry.
Ramsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Who won it for them
What it says about next week
Note
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
The model and the market were 4.0 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 14 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Patriots.
(15:00) 1-C.Newton pass short right intended for 37-D.Harris INTERCEPTED by 41-K.Young at LA 21. 41-K.Young for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
Jared Goff's 1-yard rushing touchdown with 11:23 left in the 1st put Los Angeles Rams ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Patriotscategory by categoryRams
Rams ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.81 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
Running itexpected points added per rush
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Patriots ran 58 snaps at a 53% dropback rate against Rams’s 61 at 44%. Red-zone trips: Patriots 4, Rams 3.
Rams won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.03 expected points added per play vs -0.55.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
LA's sack or hit rate, 29.0%, is past their previous high of 26.0% in week 10 — the highest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
31 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.6 points. · +2.0σ from their own normal
LA's early-down pass rate turned over: 59.3% in week 13 against 40.0% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 2.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
45 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 9.3 points. · −1.6σ from their own normal
LA's pass rate over expected turned over: +9.0 pts in week 13 against −8.1 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
61 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.8 points. · −1.1σ from their own normal
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -32 pts to 18 pts
Over Expected room →Patriots-19.5 ptsinside their normal wobble · −7.4 vs their -12.1 pts, and they swing ±7.5 week to week (−0.98× that swing) · 58 snaps
Rams-8.1 ptsleaned — ran more than the situation asked · −7.3 vs their -0.8 pts, and they swing ±6.8 week to week (−1.07× that swing) · 61 snaps
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale 20% to 80%
Tendencies room →Patriots51.2%right on their number · +2.9 vs their 48.3%, and they swing ±11.2 week to week (+0.26× that swing) · 41 early downs
Rams40.0%leaned — ran early · −15.2 vs their 55.2%, and they swing ±9.3 week to week (−1.64× that swing) · 45 early downs
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -30% to 89%
Fourth Down room →Patriots50.0%inside their normal wobble · +20.6 vs their 29.4%, and they swing ±23.2 week to week (+0.89× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
Rams33.3%right on their number · +8.3 vs their 25.0%, and they swing ±19.7 week to week (+0.42× that swing) · 6 fourth-and-short calls
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -5% to 33%
Tendencies room →Patriots11.1%right on their number · −1.1 vs their 12.2%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (−0.16× that swing) · 27 dropbacks
Rams29.0%leaned — got home · +13.0 vs their 16.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (+1.96× that swing) · 31 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
LA's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 29.0%, 13.0 points above their season mean of 16.0% and 2.0 times their own 6.6-point weekly swing.
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New England Patriots
48 dressed · 5 inactive · 1 never used
Inactive · 5
Dressed, never took a snap · 1
Los Angeles Rams
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
Inactive · 6
Dressed, never took a snap · 2
Who moved the needle
Passing · LA
16/25, 137 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
-4.5 expected points added · -6.6% completion over expected
Passing · NE
9/16, 119 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
-17.4 expected points added · -14.4% completion over expected
No opportunity read for this era
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Rams attack right, the Patriots attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
(15:00) 1-C.Newton pass short right intended for 37-D.Harris INTERCEPTED by 41-K.Young at LA 21. 41-K.Young for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 15:00 · Patriots · 2nd & 9 at LA 19 · gained nothing · -11.19 EP · −17.1% win probability
151 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
Post-game film: 163 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 163 snaps. Everything here paints the morning after the week's games — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
4 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was LA moving 90 yards from the LA 10 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; LA attacks right, NE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
163 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
163 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
Patriots0
Rams6Patriots0Rams7Patriots0Rams10Patriots0Rams16Patriots0Rams17Patriots3Rams17Patriots3Rams23Patriots3Rams24Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Just the plays, on their own page: Patriots at Rams, every play.
Full stat lines
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 9/16 | 119 | 0 | 1 | 4 | −17.4 |
| Jarrett Stidham | 5/7 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 2 | −7.4 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damien Harris | 11 | 50 | 4.5 | 0 | +0.9 |
| Sony Michel | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 | −3.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N'Keal Harry | 3 | 4 | 49 | 0 | 17% | +3.1 |
| Damiere Byrd | 5 | 8 | 48 | 0 | 35% |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Phillips | 8 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ja'Whaun Bentley | 5 | 4 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Deatrich Wise |
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT | Sacked | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 16/25 | 137 | 1 | 1 | 1 | −4.5 |
| Player | Att | Yds | Avg | TD | EPA |
|---|
Every number on them comes from the same read as this page, and each one says in words where it came from.
How the win probability moved, the three snaps that bent it, and every drive in order.
/football/games/2020_14_NE_LA
The cards are drawn from the charted play-by-play, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Rams closed -5 and covered, winning by 21.
Total closed 43.5; the game landed 27 — under by 16.5.
Conditions and crew
| Cam Newton | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 | −5.1 |
| James White | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 | −0.5 |
| Jarrett Stidham | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | +0.6 |
| +0.4 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 4 | 5 | 47 | 0 | 22% | −1.5 |
| James White | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 9% | −1.5 |
| Damien Harris | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9% | −12.0 |
| Sony Michel | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.7 |
| Devin Asiasi | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −3.3 |
| 1 |
| 4 |
| 0.0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| Jonathan Jones | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin McCourty | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lawrence Guy | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stephon Gilmore | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Simon | 4 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Adam Butler | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Byron Cowart | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 29 | 171 | 5.9 | 0 | −0.1 |
| Jared Goff | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 1 | +4.5 |
| Darrell Henderson | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | −0.6 |
| Robert Woods | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | −1.0 |
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD | Tgt share | EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Higbee | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 | 8% | +2.7 |
| Cooper Kupp | 5 | 5 | 33 | 1 | 21% | +2.1 |
| Robert Woods | 5 | 8 | 32 | 0 | 33% | −4.3 |
| Cam Akers | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 | 13% | −0.8 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 13% | −0.5 |
| Josh Reynolds | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 8% | −0.8 |
| Malcolm Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4% | −0.2 |
| Player | Solo | Ast | Sacks | INT | PD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Young | 6 | 2 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Troy Reeder | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jordan Fuller | 6 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Johnson | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Sebastian Joseph | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Justin Hollins | 2 | 3 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Leonard Floyd | 2 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Brockers | 2 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Ramsey | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Gaines | 1 | 2 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
