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2020 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 13, 2020 · Lincoln Financial Field
Final
SaintsNew Orleans21
BY 3final margin
EaglesPhiladelphia24
New Orleans Saints 21 at Philadelphia Eagles 24. Final.
Saints -7.5 upset
The verdict · 2020 Week 14
Philadelphia Eagles 24, Saints 21 — on the last possessions.
It turned at Q4 9:57, 4th and 2, on Taysom Hill — 15.3 win-probability points to the Eagles on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 9:57 · 4th and 2
Taysom Hill
Eagles
(9:57) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill sacked at PHI 48 for -6 yards (94-J.Sweat). FUMBLES (94-J.Sweat) [94-J.Sweat], RECOVERED by PHI-93-J.Hargrave at PHI 47.
O 43 ✓
Saints closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Philadelphia Eagles 24–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 9:57, Eagles +15.3% win probability on one snap.
15.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Alshon JefferyEaglesQ2 13:30(13:30) (Shotgun) 2-J.Hurts pass short left to 17-A.Jeffery for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN [58-K.Alexander]. PENALTY on NO-58-K.Alexander, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
13.7pts
Duke RileyEaglesQ2 7:04(7:04) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill pass short left intended for 41-A.Kamara INTERCEPTED by 50-D.Riley [21-J.Mills] at NO 39. 50-D.Riley pushed ob at NO 32 for 7 yards (41-A.Kamara).
14.6pts
What separated them
Giveaways
Eagles won this one — 1 giveaway, against Saints at 2 giveaways.
Eaglesthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Explosive plays
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 8 chunk plays, against Eagles at 6 chunk plays.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Red zone
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Eagles at 2 touchdowns on 4 trips.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Saints owned this one and still lost it — 5 of 12 on third down, against Eagles at 4 of 12 on third down.
Saintsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
4 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 17.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 35 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Eagles.
MarketModelmodel higher on Eagleshigher on Saints168 of 179 plays carry both curves
(9:57) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill sacked at PHI 48 for -6 yards (94-J.Sweat). FUMBLES (94-J.Sweat) [94-J.Sweat], RECOVERED by PHI-93-J.Hargrave at PHI 47.
Swing +15.3 for EaglesExpected points +3.01 for EaglesThe model had Eagles 12 points higher than the market did.play 143
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 9:57NO +15% win prob(9:57) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill sacked at PHI 48 for -6 yards (94-J.Sweat). FUMBLES (94-J.Sweat) [94-J.Sweat], RECOVERED by PHI-93-J.Hargrave at PHI 47.
2nd · 7:04NO +15% win prob(7:04) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill pass short left intended for 41-A.Kamara INTERCEPTED by 50-D.Riley [21-J.Mills] at NO 39. 50-D.Riley pushed ob at NO 32 for 7 yards (41-A.Kamara).
2nd · 13:30PHI +14% win prob(13:30) (Shotgun) 2-J.Hurts pass short left to 17-A.Jeffery for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN [58-K.Alexander]. PENALTY on NO-58-K.Alexander, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
1st · 4:55NO +11% win prob(4:55) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders left guard to NO 37 for -3 yards (27-M.Jenkins).
2nd · 0:02NO +11% win prob(:02) 4-J.Elliott 22 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-1-C.Johnston.
3rd · 1:48PHI +10% win prob(1:48) 7-T.Hill pass deep left to 17-E.Sanders for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Alshon Jeffery's 15-yard touchdown catch with 13:30 left in the 2nd put Philadelphia Eagles ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Eagles ahead 5–3 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.06Saints: +0.06 expected points added per play
+0.07Eagles: +0.07 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.10Saints: +0.10 expected points added per play
+0.17Eagles: +0.17 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.05Saints: −0.05 expected points added per play
−0.06Eagles: −0.06 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Saints ran 63 snaps at a 73% dropback rate against Eagles’s 62 at 53%. Red-zone trips: Saints 3, Eagles 4.
NoteEagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs 0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
high through week 14Against their seasonTendencies
NO's early-down pass rate, 70.0%, is past their previous high of 65.0% in week 5 — the highest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
50 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 11.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -23 pts to 15 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −7.9 vs their 17.0%, and they swing ±6.6 week to week (−1.21× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Eagles26.1%
leaned — got home · +8.3 vs their 17.8%, and they swing ±8.1 week to week (+1.02× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNO's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 70.0%, 18.7 points above their season mean of 51.3% and 1.7 times their own 11.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New Orleans Saints
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 1 never used
71Ryan RamczykT · Every snap100%63 snaps
75Andrus PeatG · Every snap100%63 snaps
78Erik McCoyC · Every snap100%63 snaps
72Terron ArmsteadT · Every snap100%63 snaps
7Taysom HillQB · Every snap100%63 snaps
13Michael ThomasWR · Full-time90%57 snaps
10Tre'Quan SmithWR · Full-time86%54 snaps
17Emmanuel SandersWR · Full-time84%53 snaps
41Alvin KamaraRB · Heavy rotation71%45 snaps
51Cesar RuizG · Heavy rotation62%39 snaps
87Jared CookTE · Heavy rotation57%36 snaps
62Nick EastonG · Rotational38%24 snaps
28Latavius MurrayRB · Rotational32%20 snaps
89Josh HillTE · Rotational29%18 snaps
82Adam TrautmanTE · Situational24%15 snaps
32Michael BurtonFB · Situational11%7 snaps
83Juwan JohnsonWR · Situational8%5 snaps
74James HurstG · Situational6%4 snaps
14Tommylee LewisWR · Situational2%1 snap
Inactive · 7
Ken CrawleyCBMalcom BrownDTDerrick KellyGTrevor SiemianQBTy MontgomeryRBGarrett GriffinTEDeonte HarrisWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Eagles attack right, the Saints attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Saints←Eagles→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Hill sacked−15% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(9:57) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill sacked at PHI 48 for -6 yards (94-J.Sweat). FUMBLES (94-J.Sweat) [94-J.Sweat], RECOVERED by PHI-93-J.Hargrave at PHI 47.
Q4 9:57 · Saints · 4th & 2 at PHI 42 · lost 5 · -3.01 EP · −14.7% win probability
166 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 179 plays across 23 drives, personnel groupings on 179 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 23 drives ended in points. The longest march was PHI moving 96 yards from the PHI 4 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; PHI attacks right, NO attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
179 of 179 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
179
EPA per play
-0.03
Success rate
41%
Yards
771
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Saints1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR45+0.0873%
Eagles1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR35-0.3037%
Eagles1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR25+0.6356%
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR6+0.4967%
Saints1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5+0.4440%
Saints2 RB, 0 TE, 2 WR2——
Saints1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Eagles1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Saints1 RB, 0 TE, 3 WR1——
Eagles2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Saints0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
179 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
179 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter33 plays
Punt5 plays
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Turnover on downs15 plays, from the Eagles 24 to the Saints 33
No good8 plays, from the Saints 37 to the Eagles 27
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, two linebackers and six backsRoute runCrosserCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.2 seconds
The period ended4 plays, from the Eagles 35 to the Eagles 38
2nd quarter57 plays
Saints0Eagles6
Saints0Eagles7
Touchdown5 plays, from the Saints 23 to the Saints 15
Punt7 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 42
Punt5 plays, from the Eagles 20 to the Eagles 40
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.7 seconds
Intercepted3 plays, from the Saints 20 to the Saints 39
Saints0Eagles10
Field goal4 plays, from the Saints 32 to the Saints 26
Punt8 plays, from the Saints 27 to the Saints 48
Saints0Eagles16
Saints0Eagles17
Touchdown7 plays, from the Eagles 4 to the Eagles 18
Punt8 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Saints 34
No good9 plays, from the Eagles 23 to the Saints 4
3rd quarter40 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 31
Saints6Eagles17
Saints7Eagles17
Touchdown13 plays, from the Saints 35 to the Eagles 5
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Saints 40
Saints13Eagles17
Saints14Eagles17
Touchdown5 plays, from the Saints 40 to the Eagles 37
The period ended6 plays, from the Eagles 25 to the Eagles 36
4th quarter49 plays
Punt3 plays, from the Eagles 39 to the Eagles 41
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldTwo tight ends and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFour
Fumble lost10 plays, from the Saints 5 to the Eagles 42
Saints14Eagles23
Saints14Eagles24
Touchdown10 plays, from the Eagles 47 to the Saints 1
No good12 plays, from the Saints 25 to the Eagles 31
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Eagles 47 to the Eagles 48
Saints20Eagles24
Saints21Eagles24
Touchdown4 plays, from the Saints 49 to the Eagles 20
The period ended7 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
