2020 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 13, 2020 · Lincoln Financial Field

New Orleans Saints

Philadelphia EaglesWinner

NO -7.5 upsetO 43 ✓Saints closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Philadelphia Eagles 24–21 — decided on the final possessions. Biggest swing: Q4 9:57, NO +15% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 9:57NO — PHI NO ball · 4th & 2PHI 53%

(9:57) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill sacked at PHI 48 for -6 yards (94-J.Sweat). FUMBLES (94-J.Sweat) [94-J.Sweat], RECOVERED by PHI-93-J.Hargrave at PHI 47.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 9:57NO +15% win prob(9:57) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill sacked at PHI 48 for -6 yards (94-J.Sweat). FUMBLES (94-J.Sweat) [94-J.Sweat], RECOVERED by PHI-93-J.Hargrave at PHI 47.
Q2 · 7:04NO +15% win prob(7:04) (Shotgun) 7-T.Hill pass short left intended for 41-A.Kamara INTERCEPTED by 50-D.Riley [21-J.Mills] at NO 39. 50-D.Riley pushed ob at NO 32 for 7 yards (41-A.Kamara).
Q2 · 13:30PHI +14% win prob(13:30) (Shotgun) 2-J.Hurts pass short left to 17-A.Jeffery for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN [58-K.Alexander]. PENALTY on NO-58-K.Alexander, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q1 · 4:55NO +11% win prob(4:55) (Shotgun) 26-M.Sanders left guard to NO 37 for -3 yards (27-M.Jenkins).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Saints	Eagles
Offensive plays	63	62
Total yards	358	417 (edge)
Yards per play	5.7	6.7 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.06	0.07 (edge)
Success rate	44%	45% (edge)
Dropback rate	73%	53%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.10	0.17 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.05 (edge)	-0.06
Third downs	5/12 (edge)	4/12
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	20 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	5	0 (edge)
Turnovers	2	1 (edge)

Eagles won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.07 expected points added per play vs 0.06.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · NO

Taysom HillTE

28/38, 291 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

3.1 expected points added · +10.3% completion over expected

Passing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

17/30, 167 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

0.6 expected points added · -4.1% completion over expected

Rushing · PHI

Miles SandersRB

14 att, 115 yds, 2 TD

2.4 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · PHI

Jalen HurtsQB

18 att, 106 yds, 0 TD

-1.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · NO

Michael ThomasWR

8/8 for 84 yds, 0 TD

22% of team targets · 7.9 expected points added

Receiving · NO

Tre'Quan SmithWR

3/6 for 60 yds, 0 TD

16% of team targets · 1.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	NO	NO 32	5	0	1:59	Punt
2	PHI	PHI 24	13	49	8:11	Turnover on downs
3	NO	NO 37	8	36	3:52	Turnover on downs
4	PHI	PHI 35	8	65	2:33	Touchdown
5	NO	NO 25	7	17	2:42	Punt
6	PHI	PHI 20	5	20	2:33	Punt
7	NO	NO 20	3	19	1:13	Interception
8	PHI	NO 32	4	6	0:52	Turnover on downs
9	NO	NO 27	8	21	3:52	Punt
10	PHI	PHI 4	5	98	0:38	Touchdown
11	NO	NO 25	5	5	0:38	Punt
12	PHI	PHI 23	7	64	0:57	Turnover on downs
13	PHI	PHI 25	5	5	1:58	Punt
14	NO	NO 35	11	65	5:07	Touchdown
15	PHI	PHI 25	10	35	4:52	Turnover on downs
16	NO	NO 40	5	60	1:23	Touchdown
17	PHI	PHI 25	8	16	2:38	Punt
18	NO	NO 5	9	48	4:13	Fumble
19	PHI	PHI 47	7	55	3:27	Touchdown
20	NO	NO 25	12	36	4:27	Turnover on downs
21	PHI	PHI 47	2	4	0:13	Fumble
22	NO	NO 49	4	51	0:18	Touchdown
23	PHI	NO 28	4	0	1:24	End of game

0 of 23 drives ended in points. Longest march: Eagles gained 98 scrimmage yards over 5 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

New Orleans Saints

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Taysom Hill	28/38	291	2	1	5	3.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Alvin Kamara	11	50	4.5	1	0.4
Taysom Hill	5	33	6.6	0	1.0
Latavius Murray	4	13	3.3	0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Michael Thomas	8	8	84	0	22%	7.9
Tre'Quan Smith	3	6	60	0	16%	1.8
Emmanuel Sanders	3	5	48	1	14%	2.4
Alvin Kamara	7	10	44	0	27%	-5.9
Jared Cook	3	4	37	1	11%	5.1
Adam Trautman	1	1	12	0	3%	1.2
Juwan Johnson	1	1	11	0	3%	1.3
Josh Hill	1	1	1	0	3%	-0.4
Latavius Murray	1	1	-6	0	3%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	PD
Marcus Williams	5	2	0
Shy Tuttle	2	4	0
Demario Davis	3	3	0
Kwon Alexander	3	3	0
Malcolm Jenkins	4	1	0
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson	4	1	1
Sheldon Rankins	3	1	0
David Onyemata	1	2	0
Marshon Lattimore	3	0	1
Janoris Jenkins	3	0	0

Philadelphia Eagles

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Jalen Hurts	17/30	167	1	0	0	0.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Miles Sanders	14	115	8.2	2	2.4
Jalen Hurts	18	106	5.9	0	-1.8
Jalen Reagor	1	19	19.0	0	1.1
Boston Scott	3	6	2.0	0	-1.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Jalen Reagor	2	4	46	0	15%	2.4
Dallas Goedert	4	6	43	0	23%	0.5
Miles Sanders	4	5	21	0	19%	-0.0
Greg Ward	2	5	20	0	19%	-1.1
Alshon Jeffery	1	1	15	1	4%	4.0
Boston Scott	1	1	11	0	4%	0.6
Zach Ertz	2	3	8	0	12%	-1.7
Quez Watkins	1	1	3	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Alex Singleton	8	3	0.0	0	0
Kevon Seymour	5	1	0.0	0	0
Duke Riley	4	2	0.0	1	1
Darius Slay	5	1	0.0	0	0
Josh Sweat	4	1	2.0	0	0
Nickell Robey	5	0	0.0	0	0
Javon Hargrave	2	2	2.0	0	0
Fletcher Cox	2	1	1.0	0	0
Marcus Epps	2	0	0.0	0	0
Shaun Bradley	2	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: NO -7.5
Closing total: 43
NO moneyline: -335
PHI moneyline: +284

Saints closed -7.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43; the game landed 45 — over by 2.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lincoln Financial Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 57°F, wind 10 mph
Referee: Jerome Boger
Rest: NO 7 days · PHI 7 days
Coaches: Sean Payton vs Doug Pederson