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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:57 AM ET · 16 to play
Seattle Seahawks 40, Jets 3 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q1 9:46, 2nd and 6, on DK Metcalf — 6.2 win-probability points to the Seahawks on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 9:46 · 2nd and 6
DK Metcalf
Seahawks
(9:46) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 14-D.Metcalf to SEA 43 for 14 yards (44-H.Langi; 41-M.Farley). SEA-14-D.Metcalf was injured during the play.
Seahawks closed -16.5 and covered, winning by 37.
Seattle Seahawks 40–3 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 9:46, Seahawks +6.2% win probability on one snap.
6.2
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Breshad PerrimanJetsQ1 12:29(12:29) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 19-B.Perriman to SEA 28 for 17 yards (29-D.Reed).
3.6pts
Frank GoreSeahawksQ1 11:10(11:10) 21-F.Gore left tackle to SEA 27 for 1 yard (93-J.Bullard; 98-A.Robinson).
4.2pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Seahawks won this one — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jets at 31% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Seahawks won this one — 5 touchdowns on 6 trips, against Jets at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Seahawks won this one — +0.21 expected points per snap, against Jets at -0.34 expected points per snap.
Seahawksthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Seahawks won this one — -0.02 expected points per carry, against Jets at -0.52 expected points per carry.
1 other measure was inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so it is not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 38 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jets.
MarketModelmodel higher on Seahawkshigher on Jets158 of 166 plays carry both curves
(9:46) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 14-D.Metcalf to SEA 43 for 14 yards (44-H.Langi; 41-M.Farley). SEA-14-D.Metcalf was injured during the play.
Swing +6.2 for SeahawksExpected points +1.26 for SeahawksThe model had Jets 34 points higher than the market did.play 14
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 9:46SEA +6% win prob(9:46) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 14-D.Metcalf to SEA 43 for 14 yards (44-H.Langi; 41-M.Farley). SEA-14-D.Metcalf was injured during the play.
1st · 11:10NYJ +4% win prob(11:10) 21-F.Gore left tackle to SEA 27 for 1 yard (93-J.Bullard; 98-A.Robinson).
1st · 12:29SEA +4% win prob(12:29) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 19-B.Perriman to SEA 28 for 17 yards (29-D.Reed).
1st · 10:26SEA +4% win prob(10:26) 6-S.Castillo 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.
1st · 15:00SEA +3% win prob(15:00) 21-F.Gore left tackle to NYJ 36 for 11 yards (54-B.Wagner).
1st · 7:23SEA +2% win prob(7:23) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep right to 18-F.Swain for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 9:11
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Freddie Swain's 19-yard touchdown catch with 7:23 left in the 1st put Seattle Seahawks ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st10:26Sergio Castillo·45-yd field goal45-yard field goalholder B.Mann · snap T.Hennessy+33–0
1st7:23Freddie Swain·19-yd TD catch19-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell WilsonLead never changed again+73–7
2nd15:00DK Metcalf·5-yd TD catch5-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+73–14
2nd12:40Jason Myers·41-yd field goal41-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+33–17
2nd0:35Chris Carson·5-yd TD run5-yard rushing touchdownkick no good, wide right+63–23
3rd8:38Will Dissly·10-yd TD catch10-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+73–30
3rd3:02David Moore·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Russell Wilsonfrom Russell Wilson+73–37
4th3:53Jason Myers·29-yd field goal29-yard field goalholder M.Dickson · snap T.Ott+33–40
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Jetscategory by categorySeahawks
Jets0–8Seahawks
185Total yards411
3.6Yards per play6.0
31%Success rate54%
33%Third-down rate55%
0Red-zone touchdowns5
3Explosive plays7
11First downs25
3Sacks taken1
1Turnovers1
The read
Seahawks ahead 8–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.52 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.34Jets: −0.34 expected points added per play
+0.21Seahawks: +0.21 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.20Jets: −0.20 expected points added per play
+0.45Seahawks: +0.45 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.52Jets: −0.52 expected points added per play
−0.02Seahawks: −0.02 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Jets ran 52 snaps at a 58% dropback rate against Seahawks’s 68 at 49%. Red-zone trips: Jets 3, Seahawks 6.
NoteSeahawks won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.21 expected points added per play vs -0.34.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
6 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
low through week 14Against their seasonOver Expected
SEA's pass rate over expected, −7.5 pts, is past their previous low of +2.9 pts in week 11 — the lowest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
2.4 times their own weekly swing below their number.
A 2.5-swing turn from week 13.
68 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.7 points.
SEA's early-down pass rate, 43.9%, is past their previous low of 53.1% in week 12 — the lowest of their 13 charted games through week 14.
A 3.2-swing turn from week 13.
57 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
6 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -19 pts to 21 pts
right on their number · −4.0 vs their 13.1%, and they swing ±8.9 week to week (−0.45× that swing) · 33 dropbacks
Seahawks23.3%
leaned — got home · +8.4 vs their 14.9%, and they swing ±5.5 week to week (+1.53× that swing) · 30 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteSEA's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: -7.5 pts, 13.7 points below their season mean of 6.2 pts and 2.4 times their own 5.7-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
New York Jets
48 dressed · 7 inactive · 3 never used
68Josh AndrewsG · Every snap100%53 snaps
67Pat ElfleinG · Every snap100%53 snaps
60Connor McGovernC · Every snap100%53 snaps
19Breshad PerrimanWR · Every snap100%53 snaps
76George FantT · Every snap100%53 snaps
14Sam DarnoldQB · Every snap100%53 snaps
77Mekhi BectonT · Every snap100%53 snaps
82Jamison CrowderWR · Heavy rotation72%38 snaps
89Christopher HerndonTE · Heavy rotation64%34 snaps
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Seahawks attack right, the Jets attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Jets←Seahawks→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Wilson pass−9% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(4:27) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep left intended for 14-D.Metcalf INTERCEPTED by 20-M.Maye at NYJ 0. Touchback. Penalty on SEA-76-D.Brown, Offensive Holding, declined.
Q1 4:27 · Seahawks · 2nd & 10 at NYJ 37 · gained nothing · -3.67 EP · −8.6% win probability
156 snaps placed · 10 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 166 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 166 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was SEA moving 75 yards from the SEA 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SEA attacks right, NYJ attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
166 of 166 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
166
EPA per play
-0.05
Success rate
43%
Yards
595
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Seahawks1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44+0.2657%
Jets1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR29-0.5369%
Seahawks1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR17+0.2035%
Jets1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR14+0.0629%
Seahawks2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR7-0.1229%
Jets1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR5+0.1840%
Jets0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR3——
Jets1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
166 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
166 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter42 plays
Jets3Seahawks0
Field goal10 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Seahawks 27
Jets3Seahawks6
Jets3Seahawks7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Jets 19
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 28
Intercepted4 plays, from the Seahawks 46 to the Jets 37
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 20 to the Jets 38
The period ended9 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Jets 6
2nd quarter54 plays
Jets3Seahawks13
Jets3Seahawks14
Touchdown2 plays
Fumble lost2 plays
Jets3Seahawks17
Field goal4 plays, from the Jets 32 to the Jets 23
No good8 plays, from the Seahawks 30 to the Seahawks 19
Punt4 plays, from the Seahawks 27 to the Seahawks 32
No good13 plays, from the Jets 36 to the Seahawks 18
Jets3Seahawks23
Touchdown11 plays, from the Seahawks 31 to the Jets 5
No good8 plays, from the Jets 31 to the Seahawks 25
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Jets3Seahawks29
Jets3Seahawks30
Touchdown15 plays, from the Seahawks 25 to the Jets 10
Punt5 plays, from the Jets 10 to the Jets 13
Jets3Seahawks36
Jets3Seahawks37
Touchdown9 plays, from the Jets 40 to the Jets 3
Punt6 plays
The period ended4 plays, from the Seahawks 41 to the Seahawks 48
4th quarter31 plays
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the Jets 9 to the Jets 12
Jets3Seahawks40
Field goal14 plays, from the Seahawks 35 to the Jets 8
The period ended9 plays, from the Jets 25 to the Jets 49
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
