2020 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 13, 2020 · New Era Field

Pittsburgh Steelers

Buffalo BillsWinner

BUF -2 ✓U 48.5 ✓Bills closed -2 and covered, winning by 11.

Buffalo Bills 26–15. Biggest swing: Q2 1:02, PIT +29% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 1:02PIT — BUF PIT ball · 2nd & 5PIT 62%

(1:02) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left intended for 19-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 24-T.Johnson at BUF 49. 24-T.Johnson for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 1:02PIT +29% win prob(1:02) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left intended for 19-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 24-T.Johnson at BUF 49. 24-T.Johnson for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 8:26BUF +10% win prob(8:26) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle to 13-J.Washington for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 10:29BUF +8% win prob(10:29) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 9:42PIT +6% win prob(9:42) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox to BUF 29 for 6 yards (28-M.Hilton; 27-M.Allen). FUMBLES (28-M.Hilton), RECOVERED by PIT-20-C.Sutton at BUF 30.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Steelers	Bills
Offensive plays	56	69
Total yards	226	336 (edge)
Yards per play	4.0	4.9 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.29	-0.09 (edge)
Success rate	38% (edge)	36%
Dropback rate	70%	67%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.33	-0.10 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.19	-0.07 (edge)
Third downs	1/10	7/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	1	6 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	14	18 (edge)
Sacks taken	1	1
Turnovers	2	2

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.29.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

24/43, 238 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

0.1 expected points added · -4.9% completion over expected

Passing · PIT

Ben RoethlisbergerQB

21/37, 187 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT

-12.8 expected points added · -9.9% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

Zack MossRB

13 att, 43 yds, 0 TD

-1.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Devin SingletaryRB

7 att, 32 yds, 0 TD

-0.8 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Stefon DiggsWR

10/14 for 130 yds, 1 TD

33% of team targets · 6.6 expected points added

Receiving · PIT

JuJu Smith-SchusterWR

6/7 for 55 yds, 1 TD

19% of team targets · -2.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	PIT	PIT 10	5	5	0:59	Punt
2	BUF	BUF 33	4	6	1:18	Punt
3	PIT	PIT 14	5	15	2:10	Punt
4	BUF	BUF 31	4	15	1:11	Interception
5	PIT	PIT 27	4	6	1:38	Punt
6	BUF	BUF 32	4	8	1:29	Punt
7	PIT	PIT 23	9	32	4:03	Punt
8	BUF	BUF 14	6	7	2:31	Punt
9	PIT	PIT 20	7	34	2:57	Punt
10	BUF	BUF 9	5	20	2:08	Fumble
11	PIT	BUF 30	4	27	1:15	Touchdown
12	BUF	BUF 24	5	3	1:44	Punt
13	PIT	PIT 27	4	1	1:41	Punt
14	BUF	BUF 26	9	43	3:14	Turnover on downs
15	PIT	PIT 25	5	17	0:50	Defensive touchdown
16	PIT	PIT 25	3	6	0:52	End of half
17	BUF	BUF 32	10	68	4:37	Touchdown
18	PIT	PIT 25	5	-9	1:16	Punt
19	BUF	BUF 43	5	57	2:05	Touchdown
20	PIT	PIT 25	5	6	1:30	Punt
21	BUF	BUF 23	6	19	3:36	Punt
22	PIT	PIT 19	11	80	4:38	Touchdown
23	BUF	BUF 34	12	26	4:11	Turnover on downs
24	PIT	PIT 28	4	6	0:56	Interception
25	BUF	BUF 29	13	64	7:11	End of game

0 of 25 drives ended in points. Longest march: Steelers gained 80 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Pittsburgh Steelers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ben Roethlisberger	21/37	187	2	2	1	-12.8

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
James Conner	10	18	1.8	-3.3
Jaylen Samuels	4	15	3.8	-0.4
Benny Snell	3	14	4.7	0.4

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
JuJu Smith-Schuster	6	7	55	1	19%	-2.8
Diontae Johnson	4	7	40	0	19%	-0.9
Eric Ebron	2	5	30	0	14%	-0.6
James Washington	3	6	29	1	16%	-2.2
Jaylen Samuels	3	4	18	0	11%	-0.2
Chase Claypool	3	6	15	0	16%	-1.8
Vance McDonald	0	2	0	0	5%	-2.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Avery Williamson	8	2	0.0	0	0
Terrell Edmunds	3	5	0.0	0	0
Marcus Allen	3	3	0.0	0	0
Minkah Fitzpatrick	4	2	0.0	0	0
Steven Nelson	5	1	0.0	0	3
Mike Hilton	3	2	0.0	1	1
Ulysees Gilbert	3	1	0.0	0	0
Tyson Alualu	2	2	1.0	0	0
Cameron Heyward	2	1	0.0	0	1
T.J. Watt	1	1	0.0	0	1

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	24/43	238	2	1	1	0.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
Zack Moss	13	43	3.3	-1.6
Devin Singletary	7	32	4.6	-0.8
Josh Allen	6	28	4.7	-2.6
Stefon Diggs	1	1	1.0	-0.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	10	14	130	1	33%	6.6
Cole Beasley	5	10	41	0	24%	-2.3
Dawson Knox	4	7	34	0	17%	-4.1
Gabe Davis	3	8	19	1	19%	-2.8
Isaiah McKenzie	1	1	12	0	2%	2.0
Devin Singletary	1	1	2	0	2%	-0.4
Zack Moss	0	1	0	0	2%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jordan Poyer	4	4	0.0	0	1
Taron Johnson	4	3	0.0	1	1
Tremaine Edmunds	2	4	0.0	0	0
A.J. Klein	3	2	0.0	0	0
Tre'Davious White	3	1	0.0	0	1
Harrison Phillips	1	3	0.0	0	0
Micah Hyde	3	1	0.0	0	0
Matt Milano	2	1	1.0	0	1
Josh Norman	1	1	0.0	0	0
Gabe Davis	1	0	0.0	0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -2
Closing total: 48.5
PIT moneyline: +112
BUF moneyline: -124

Bills closed -2 and covered, winning by 11.

Total closed 48.5; the game landed 41 — under by 7.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: New Era Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather: 35°F, wind 11 mph
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: PIT 6 days · BUF 6 days
Coaches: Mike Tomlin vs Sean McDermott