For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
Loading
Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:20 AM ET · 16 to play
Pittsburgh Steelers 15 at Buffalo Bills 26. Final.
Bills -2 ✓U 48.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 14
Buffalo Bills 26, Steelers 15 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 1:02, 2nd and 5, on Taron Johnson — 28.8 win-probability points to the Bills on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:02 · 2nd and 5
Taron Johnson
Bills
(1:02) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left intended for 19-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 24-T.Johnson at BUF 49. 24-T.Johnson for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Bills closed -2 and covered, winning by 11.
Buffalo Bills 26–15. Biggest swing: Q2 1:02, Bills +28.8% win probability on one snap.
28.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
James WashingtonSteelersQ2 8:26(8:26) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle to 13-J.Washington for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
10.1pts
Stefon DiggsBillsQ3 10:29(10:29) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
7.7pts
What separated them
Third down
Bills won this one — 7 of 14 on third down, against Steelers at 1 of 10 on third down.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Steelers owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Bills at 2 touchdowns on 5 trips.
Steelersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Explosive plays
Bills won this one — 6 chunk plays, against Steelers at 1 chunk play.
Billsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bills won this one — -0.09 expected points per snap, against Steelers at -0.29 expected points per snap.
(1:02) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left intended for 19-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 24-T.Johnson at BUF 49. 24-T.Johnson for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing +28.8 for BillsExpected points +8.62 for BillsModel and market agree here.play 88
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 1:02PIT +29% win prob(1:02) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left intended for 19-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 24-T.Johnson at BUF 49. 24-T.Johnson for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 8:26BUF +10% win prob(8:26) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep middle to 13-J.Washington for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 10:29BUF +8% win prob(10:29) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 9:42PIT +6% win prob(9:42) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 88-D.Knox to BUF 29 for 6 yards (28-M.Hilton; 27-M.Allen). FUMBLES (28-M.Hilton), RECOVERED by PIT-20-C.Sutton at BUF 30.
2nd · 14:53BUF +6% win prob(14:53) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 54 yards to PIT 20, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 20 for no gain (33-S.Neal; 31-D.Marlowe).
2nd · 4:14BUF +6% win prob(4:14) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 14-S.Diggs to PIT 44 for 23 yards (27-M.Allen).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Taron Johnson's 51-yard touchdown with 1:02 left in the 2nd put Buffalo Bills ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 4 scores that followed.
Lead
2nd8:26James Washington·19-yd TD catch19-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger+77–0
2nd1:46Tyler Bass·34-yd field goal34-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Ferguson+37–3
2nd1:02Taron Johnson·51-yd defence TD51-yard touchdownthe defence scored itthe defence scored it · kick no good, wide rightLead never changed again+67–9
4th12:21JuJu Smith-Schuster·3-yd TD catch3-yard touchdown catchfrom Ben Roethlisbergerfrom Ben Roethlisberger · two-point good+815–23
4th8:11Tyler Bass·23-yd field goal23-yard field goalholder C.Bojorquez · snap R.Ferguson+315–26
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Steelerscategory by categoryBills
Steelers1–5Bills
226Total yards336
4.0Yards per play4.9
38%Success rate36%
10%Third-down rate50%
2Red-zone touchdowns2
1Explosive plays6
14First downs18
1Sacks taken1
2Turnovers2
The read
Bills ahead 5–1 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — explosive plays.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.29Steelers: −0.29 expected points added per play
−0.09Bills: −0.09 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.33Steelers: −0.33 expected points added per play
−0.10Bills: −0.10 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.19Steelers: −0.19 expected points added per play
−0.07Bills: −0.07 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Steelers ran 56 snaps at a 70% dropback rate against Bills’s 69 at 67%. Red-zone trips: Steelers 2, Bills 5.
NoteBills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: -0.09 expected points added per play vs -0.29.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
BUF's fourth-and-short go rate turned over: 100.0% in week 13 against 0.0% here — they went for it then and took the kick now, a turn of 2.5 of their own weekly swings across the two.
3 fourth-and-short calls this game, floor 3 — 7 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 39.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -20 pts to 33 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −10.0 vs their 23.1%, and they swing ±7.7 week to week (−1.31× that swing) · 46 dropbacks
Bills12.8%
right on their number · −1.8 vs their 14.6%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (−0.30× that swing) · 39 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NotePIT's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 31.3 points below their season mean of 31.3% and 1.4 times their own 21.9-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Pittsburgh Steelers
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 3 never used
78Alejandro VillanuevaT · Every snap100%57 snaps
66David DeCastroG · Every snap100%57 snaps
53Maurkice PounceyC · Every snap100%57 snaps
7Ben RoethlisbergerQB · Every snap100%57 snaps
19JuJu Smith-SchusterWR · Every snap100%57 snaps
76Chukwuma OkoraforT · Full-time91%52 snaps
13James WashingtonWR · Full-time81%46 snaps
11Chase ClaypoolWR · Heavy rotation67%38 snaps
85Eric EbronTE · Heavy rotation67%38 snaps
69Kevin DotsonG · Heavy rotation51%29 snaps
18Diontae JohnsonWR · Rotational49%28 snaps
38Jaylen SamuelsRB · Rotational47%27 snaps
30James ConnerRB · Rotational40%23 snaps
89Vance McDonaldTE · Rotational33%19 snaps
60J.C. HassenauerC · Rotational32%18 snaps
71Matt FeilerT · Situational18%10 snaps
24Benny SnellRB · Situational9%5 snaps
65Jerald HawkinsT · Situational9%5 snaps
14Ray-Ray McCloudWR · Situational7%4 snaps
Inactive · 6
Joe HadenCBIsaiah BuggsDEJoshua DobbsQBAnthony McFarlandRBDerwin GrayTKevin RaderTE
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Bills attack right, the Steelers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Steelers←Bills→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
B.Roethlisberger pass−28% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(1:02) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left intended for 19-J.Smith-Schuster INTERCEPTED by 24-T.Johnson at BUF 49. 24-T.Johnson for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 1:02 · Steelers · 2nd & 5 at PIT 47 · gained nothing · -8.62 EP · −27.7% win probability
163 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 172 plays across 25 drives, personnel groupings on 172 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
6 of 25 drives ended in points. The longest march was PIT moving 81 yards from the PIT 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; BUF attacks right, PIT attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
172 of 172 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
172
EPA per play
-0.12
Success rate
39%
Yards
560
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Steelers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR54-0.2869%
Bills1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR48-0.0371%
Bills1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15-0.0340%
Bills1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WR4——
Steelers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Bills0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR1——
Bills1 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
172 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
172 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter43 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 10 to the Steelers 15
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 33 to the Bills 39
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 14 to the Steelers 30
Intercepted4 plays, from the Bills 31 to the Bills 46
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 27 to the Steelers 33
Punt4 plays, from the Bills 32 to the Bills 40
Punt9 plays, from the Steelers 23 to the Bills 45
The period ended6 plays, from the Bills 14 to the Bills 27
2nd quarter50 plays
Punt2 plays
Punt8 plays, from the Steelers 20 to the Bills 41
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, four linebackers and five backsRoute runAngleCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerSixPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.8 seconds
Fumble lost5 plays, from the Bills 9 to the Bills 23
Steelers6Bills0
Steelers7Bills0
Touchdown4 plays, from the Bills 30 to the Bills 19
Punt5 plays, from the Bills 24 to the Bills 27
Punt4 plays, from the Steelers 27 to the Steelers 28
Steelers7Bills3
Field goal10 plays, from the Bills 26 to the Steelers 16
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runOutCoverageCover 2, two deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.2 seconds
Steelers7Bills9
Touchdown7 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 47
The period ended4 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 30
3rd quarter36 plays
Steelers7Bills15
Steelers7Bills16
Touchdown10 plays, from the Bills 32 to the Steelers 19
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 26
Steelers7Bills22
Steelers7Bills23
Touchdown5 plays, from the Bills 43 to the Steelers 13
Punt5 plays, from the Steelers 25 to the Steelers 31
Punt6 plays, from the Bills 23 to the Bills 42
The period ended5 plays, from the Steelers 19 to the Steelers 36
4th quarter43 plays
Steelers13Bills23
Steelers15Bills23
Touchdown8 plays, from the Bills 47 to the Bills 3
Steelers15Bills26
Field goal13 plays, from the Bills 34 to the Steelers 1
Intercepted4 plays, from the Steelers 28 to the Steelers 34
The period ended18 plays, from the Bills 29 to the Steelers 17
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Bills -2
Closing total
48.5
Steelers moneyline
+112
Bills moneyline
-124
Bills closed -2 and covered, winning by 11.
Total closed 48.5; the game landed 41 — under by 7.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
New Era Field
Roof / surface
outdoors · astroturf
Kickoff weather
Cold, 36°F at kickoff; a light breeze at 9 mph out of the south-west; overcast.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Steelers 6 days · Bills 6 days
Coaches
Mike Tomlin vs Sean McDermott
1st · 9:31PIT +5% win prob(9:31) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass deep left intended for 11-C.Beasley INTERCEPTED by 28-M.Hilton (97-C.Heyward) at PIT 27. 28-M.Hilton to PIT 27 for no gain (13-G.Davis). J.Allen's arm hit by C.Heyward upon throw.
1st · 5:33BUF +5% win prob(5:33) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 19-J.Smith-Schuster to PIT 40 for 13 yards (24-T.Johnson).
