2020 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 13, 2020 · TIAA Bank Stadium

Tennessee TitansWinner

Jacksonville Jaguars

TEN -7.5 ✓U 53 ✓Titans closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 21.

Tennessee Titans 31–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 4:32, TEN +8% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 4:32TEN — JAX TEN ball · 1st & 10TEN 91%

(4:32) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 84-C.Davis to TEN 37 for 5 yards (94-D.Smoot). FUMBLES (94-D.Smoot), RECOVERED by JAX-58-D.Costin at TEN 40. 58-D.Costin to TEN 40 for no gain (11-A.Brown).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 4:32TEN +8% win prob(4:32) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 84-C.Davis to TEN 37 for 5 yards (94-D.Smoot). FUMBLES (94-D.Smoot), RECOVERED by JAX-58-D.Costin at TEN 40. 58-D.Costin to TEN 40 for no gain (11-A.Brown).
Q1 · 9:21TEN +7% win prob(9:21) 7-A.Rosas 53 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-D.Jones), Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
Q1 · 11:56JAX +5% win prob(11:56) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass short middle to 10-L.Shenault Jr. to TEN 40 for 11 yards (31-K.Byard).
Q2 · 0:53JAX +4% win prob(:53) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Titans	Jaguars
Offensive plays	65	69
Total yards	454 (edge)	354
Yards per play	7.0 (edge)	5.1
Expected points added / play	0.20 (edge)	-0.13
Success rate	54% (edge)	32%
Dropback rate	38%	81%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.20 (edge)	-0.11
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.20 (edge)	-0.21
Third downs	3/9	5/14 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	6 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	21 (edge)	19
Sacks taken	1	0 (edge)
Turnovers	1	1

Titans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.13.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · TEN

Ryan TannehillQB

19/24, 212 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

9.6 expected points added · +19.1% completion over expected

Passing · JAX

Gardner MinshewQB

18/31, 178 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-1.8 expected points added · +2.4% completion over expected

Rushing · TEN

Derrick HenryRB

26 att, 215 yds, 2 TD

10.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · JAX

James RobinsonRB

12 att, 67 yds, 0 TD

-2.3 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · TEN

A.J. BrownWR

7/9 for 112 yds, 1 TD

39% of team targets · 9.1 expected points added

Receiving · JAX

Keelan ColeWR

7/12 for 67 yds, 1 TD

24% of team targets · 2.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	JAX	JAX 25	11	40	5:52	Turnover on downs
2	TEN	TEN 43	4	52	1:12	Touchdown
3	JAX	JAX 25	6	23	1:34	Punt
4	TEN	TEN 22	9	28	3:16	Punt
5	JAX	JAX 13	4	6	1:23	Punt
6	TEN	TEN 25	13	69	7:00	Turnover on downs
7	JAX	JAX 11	9	27	4:02	Punt
8	TEN	TEN 20	3	17	1:19	Fumble
9	JAX	TEN 40	4	5	0:55	Turnover on downs
10	TEN	TEN 25	7	75	2:43	Touchdown
11	JAX	JAX 30	5	-5	0:35	Punt
12	TEN	TEN 37	3	28	0:09	Turnover on downs
13	TEN	TEN 25	7	75	2:36	Touchdown
14	JAX	JAX 25	3	3	0:53	Interception
15	TEN	JAX 48	7	43	2:43	Touchdown
16	JAX	JAX 40	13	65	5:49	Touchdown
17	TEN	TEN 25	8	18	3:07	Punt
18	JAX	JAX 12	10	74	2:34	Turnover on downs
19	TEN	TEN 14	9	25	4:24	Punt
20	JAX	JAX 11	11	80	2:51	Turnover on downs
21	TEN	TEN 19	7	24	3:14	Punt
22	JAX	JAX 19	5	36	1:49	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Jaguars gained 80 scrimmage yards over 11 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Tennessee Titans

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Ryan Tannehill	19/24	212	2	0	1	9.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Derrick Henry	26	215	8.3	2	10.7
Logan Woodside	1	18	18.0	0	1.1
Jeremy McNichols	11	9	0.8	0	-5.3
Amani Hooker	1	4	4.0	0	2.6
Jonnu Smith	1	3	3.0	0	-0.8

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
A.J. Brown	7	9	112	1	39%	9.1
Geoff Swaim	3	3	34	1	13%	3.9
Corey Davis	3	3	34	0	13%	-4.2
Jonnu Smith	2	2	20	0	9%	1.8
Derrick Henry	2	2	7	0	9%	-0.8
Anthony Firkser	1	1	5	0	4%	-0.2
Jeremy McNichols	1	1	0	0	4%	-1.0
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.8
Kalif Raymond	0	1	0	0	4%	-0.5

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	INT	PD
Kevin Byard	8	3	0	0
Rashaan Evans	6	2	0	2
Amani Hooker	5	2	0	0
David Long Jr.	2	3	0	0
Desmond King	3	0	0	0
Matt Dickerson	3	0	0	0
Malcolm Butler	3	0	1	2
Tye Smith	2	1	0	1
Harold Landry	2	0	0	0
Jack Crawford	2	0	0	0

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Gardner Minshew	18/31	178	1	0	0	-1.8
Mike Glennon	13/23	85	0	1	0	-7.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
James Robinson	12	67	5.6	-2.3
Gardner Minshew	2	22	11.0	2.9
Laviska Shenault Jr.	1	2	2.0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Keelan Cole	7	12	67	1	24%	2.2
Laviska Shenault Jr.	6	11	49	0	22%	-2.5
Collin Johnson	2	3	33	0	6%	1.7
Devine Ozigbo	4	4	30	0	8%	-1.3
Tyler Eifert	2	2	22	0	4%	0.1
James Robinson	4	4	16	0	8%	-0.9
D.J. Chark	2	9	16	0	18%	-7.4
James O'Shaughnessy	2	2	14	0	4%	1.9
Dare Ogunbowale	1	1	12	0	2%	0.8
Eric Saubert	1	1	4	0	2%	-0.2

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Myles Jack	7	3	0.0	0
Tre Herndon	7	2	0.0	1
Joe Schobert	5	3	0.0	0
Daniel Ekuale	2	4	0.0	0
Jarrod Wilson	4	2	0.0	0
Joe Giles-Harris	1	3	1.0	0
Doug Costin	2	2	0.0	0
Andrew Wingard	2	1	0.0	0
Greg Mabin	2	1	0.0	1
Sidney Jones	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: TEN -7.5
Closing total: 53
TEN moneyline: -364
JAX moneyline: +307

Titans closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 21.

Total closed 53; the game landed 41 — under by 12.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: TIAA Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 69°F, wind 2 mph
Referee: Adrian Hill
Rest: TEN 7 days · JAX 7 days
Coaches: Mike Vrabel vs Doug Marrone

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.