For the complete documentation index, see llms.txt. Markdown variants of the ranked boards (dynasty and fantasy rankings for NFL, NBA, MLB and CFB) are available by appending .md to those URLs or by sending Accept: text/markdown; other pages answer 404.
2020 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 13, 2020 · TIAA Bank Stadium
Final
TitansTennessee31
BY 21final margin
JaguarsJacksonville10
Tennessee Titans 31 at Jacksonville Jaguars 10. Final.
Titans -7.5 ✓U 53 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 14
Tennessee Titans 31, Jaguars 10 — and it was over early.
It turned at Q2 4:32, 1st and 10, on Corey Davis — 7.8 win-probability points to the Jaguars on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 4:32 · 1st and 10
Corey Davis
Jaguars
(4:32) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 84-C.Davis to TEN 37 for 5 yards (94-D.Smoot). FUMBLES (94-D.Smoot), RECOVERED by JAX-58-D.Costin at TEN 40. 58-D.Costin to TEN 40 for no gain (11-A.Brown).
Titans closed -7.5 and covered, winning by 21.
Tennessee Titans 31–10 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q2 4:32, Jaguars +7.8% win probability on one snap.
7.8
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
L.ShenaultJaguarsQ1 11:56(11:56) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass short middle to 10-L.Shenault Jr. to TEN 40 for 11 yards (31-K.Byard).
4.9pts
Aldrick RosasTitansQ1 9:21(9:21) 7-A.Rosas 53 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-D.Jones), Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
6.6pts
What separated them
Staying on schedule
Titans won this one — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Jaguars at 32% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Titans won this one — +0.20 expected points per carry, against Jaguars at -0.21 expected points per carry.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Titans won this one — +0.20 expected points per snap, against Jaguars at -0.13 expected points per snap.
Titansthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Titans won this one — +0.20 expected points per dropback, against Jaguars at -0.11 expected points per dropback.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 9.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 33 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Jaguars.
MarketModelmodel higher on Jaguarshigher on Titans167 of 174 plays carry both curves
(4:32) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 84-C.Davis to TEN 37 for 5 yards (94-D.Smoot). FUMBLES (94-D.Smoot), RECOVERED by JAX-58-D.Costin at TEN 40. 58-D.Costin to TEN 40 for no gain (11-A.Brown).
Swing +7.8 for JaguarsExpected points +4.62 for JaguarsThe model had Jaguars 14 points higher than the market did.play 64
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 4:32TEN +8% win prob(4:32) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 84-C.Davis to TEN 37 for 5 yards (94-D.Smoot). FUMBLES (94-D.Smoot), RECOVERED by JAX-58-D.Costin at TEN 40. 58-D.Costin to TEN 40 for no gain (11-A.Brown).
1st · 9:21TEN +7% win prob(9:21) 7-A.Rosas 53 yard field goal is BLOCKED (90-D.Jones), Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
1st · 11:56JAX +5% win prob(11:56) (Shotgun) 2-M.Glennon pass short middle to 10-L.Shenault Jr. to TEN 40 for 11 yards (31-K.Byard).
2nd · 0:53JAX +4% win prob(:53) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 9:51TEN +3% win prob(9:51) (No Huddle) 28-J.McNichols left end to JAX 11 for -2 yards (26-J.Wilson, 44-M.Jack).
1st · 8:39JAX +3% win prob(8:39) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 87-G.Swaim pushed ob at JAX 37 for 13 yards (29-J.Jones).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
A.J. Brown's 37-yard touchdown catch with 8:07 left in the 1st put Tennessee Titans ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 6 scores that followed.
Lead
1st8:07A.J. Brown·37-yd TD catch37-yard touchdown catchfrom Ryan Tannehillfrom Ryan TannehillLead never changed again+77–0
2nd3:32Aldrick Rosas·53-yd field goal53-yard field goalholder L.Cooke · snap R.Matiscik+37–3
Titans ahead 6–2 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Jaguars, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.20Titans: +0.20 expected points added per play
−0.13Jaguars: −0.13 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.20Titans: +0.20 expected points added per play
−0.11Jaguars: −0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.20Titans: +0.20 expected points added per play
−0.21Jaguars: −0.21 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Titans ran 65 snaps at a 38% dropback rate against Jaguars’s 69 at 81%. Red-zone trips: Titans 5, Jaguars 3.
NoteTitans won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.20 expected points added per play vs -0.13.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
highest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
JAX's early-down pass rate, 75.0%, was the highest of the 32 team-games charted in week 14 — 1.2 points clear of the next team along.
52 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.6 points.
lowest in the league that weekAgainst the weekTendencies
TEN's sack or hit rate, 1.8%, was the lowest of the 32 team-games charted in week 14 — 0.9 points clear of the next team along.
56 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 7.9 points.
TEN's early-down pass rate turned over: 71.2% in week 13 against 37.0% here — they passed early then and ran early now, a turn of 3.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
54 early downs this game, floor 15 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 10.4 points.
TEN's pass rate over expected turned over: −1.6 pts in week 13 against −14.1 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 2.3 of their own weekly swings across the two.
65 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 5.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 15 pts
leaned — stayed blocked · −8.8 vs their 10.6%, and they swing ±7.9 week to week (−1.12× that swing) · 56 dropbacks
Jaguars28.0%
off script — got home · +14.8 vs their 13.2%, and they swing ±7.3 week to week (+2.02× that swing) · 25 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteJAX's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 28.0%, 14.8 points above their season mean of 13.2% and 2.0 times their own 7.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Jaguars attack right, the Titans attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Titans←Jaguars→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
R.Tannehill pass−11% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(4:32) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 84-C.Davis to TEN 37 for 5 yards (94-D.Smoot). FUMBLES (94-D.Smoot), RECOVERED by JAX-58-D.Costin at TEN 40. 58-D.Costin to TEN 40 for no gain (11-A.Brown).
Q2 4:32 · Titans · 1st & 10 at TEN 32 · gained 5 · -4.62 EP · −11.2% win probability
165 snaps placed · 9 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 174 plays across 22 drives, personnel groupings on 174 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
7 of 22 drives ended in points. The longest march was TEN moving 75 yards from the TEN 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; JAX attacks right, TEN attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
174 of 174 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
174
EPA per play
+0.04
Success rate
44%
Yards
808
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Jaguars1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR59-0.1285%
Titans1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR28-0.2143%
Titans1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR16+0.3831%
Titans1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10+1.2850%
Jaguars1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.3233%
Titans2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR5-0.3240%
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Jaguars0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR2——
Titans0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Jaguars1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Titans2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Jaguars0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
174 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
174 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter41 plays
No good11 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Titans 35
Titans6Jaguars0
Titans7Jaguars0
Touchdown5 plays, from the Titans 43 to the Jaguars 37
Punt7 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 48
Punt9 plays, from the Titans 22 to midfield
Punt4 plays, from the Jaguars 13 to the Jaguars 19
The period ended4 plays
2nd quarter44 plays
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Titans 28 to the Jaguars 9
Punt9 plays, from the Jaguars 11 to the Jaguars 38
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsRoute runScreenCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw1.3 seconds
Fumble lost3 plays, from the Titans 20 to the Titans 32
Titans7Jaguars3
Field goal4 plays, from the Titans 40 to the Titans 35
Titans13Jaguars3
Titans14Jaguars3
Touchdown7 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Jaguars 36
Punt6 plays
Titans17Jaguars3
Field goal3 plays, from the Titans 37 to the Jaguars 35
3rd quarter40 plays
Titans23Jaguars3
Titans24Jaguars3
Touchdown7 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Jaguars 5
Intercepted3 plays, from the Jaguars 25 to the Jaguars 28
Titans30Jaguars3
Titans31Jaguars3
Touchdown7 plays, from the Jaguars 48 to the Jaguars 1
Titans31Jaguars9
Titans31Jaguars10
Touchdown14 plays, from the Jaguars 40 to the Titans 5
The period ended9 plays, from the Titans 25 to the Titans 37
4th quarter49 plays
Punt1 play
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Jaguars 12 to the Titans 14
Punt11 plays, from the Titans 14 to the Jaguars 43
Turnover on downs11 plays, from the Jaguars 11 to the Titans 19
Punt9 plays, from the Titans 19 to the Titans 48
The period ended7 plays, from the Jaguars 19 to the Titans 43
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Titanscategory by categoryJaguars
Titans6
Jaguars0
