2020 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 13, 2020 · State Farm Stadium

Washington CommandersWinner

San Francisco 49ers

SF -3 upsetU 43.5 ✓Dome49ers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Washington Commanders 23–15. Biggest swing: Q2 1:11, WAS +31% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 1:11WAS — SF SF ball · 1st & 10SF 64%

(1:11) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens sacked at SF 43 for -6 yards (94-D.Payne). FUMBLES (94-D.Payne) [94-D.Payne], RECOVERED by WAS-99-C.Young at SF 47. 99-C.Young for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 1:11WAS +31% win prob(1:11) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens sacked at SF 43 for -6 yards (94-D.Payne). FUMBLES (94-D.Payne) [94-D.Payne], RECOVERED by WAS-99-C.Young at SF 47. 99-C.Young for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q3 · 0:01WAS +29% win prob(:01) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short right intended for 44-K.Juszczyk INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Curl at WAS 24. 31-K.Curl for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 · 5:09WAS +19% win prob(5:09) (Shotgun) 30-J.Wilson right tackle to SF 29 for -2 yards (99-C.Young). FUMBLES (99-C.Young), RECOVERED by WAS-94-D.Payne at SF 26.
Q1 · 5:14WAS +12% win prob(5:14) 3-D.Hopkins 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Commanders	49ers
Offensive plays	58	77
Total yards	205	346 (edge)
Yards per play	3.5	4.5 (edge)
Expected points added / play	-0.31 (edge)	-0.35
Success rate	33%	44% (edge)
Dropback rate	59%	65%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.51	-0.47 (edge)
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.02 (edge)	-0.15
Third downs	3/14	4/15 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	3	3
First downs gained on snaps	12	21 (edge)
Sacks taken	2 (edge)	4
Turnovers	1 (edge)	3

49ers outgained Commanders 346–205 but lost the turnover battle 3–1. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · SF

Nick MullensQB

25/45, 260 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

-23.3 expected points added · -16.0% completion over expected

Passing · WAS

Alex SmithQB

8/19, 57 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

-12.0 expected points added · -20.9% completion over expected

Rushing · WAS

J.D. McKissicRB

11 att, 68 yds, 0 TD

0.0 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · SF

Raheem MostertRB

14 att, 65 yds, 0 TD

0.7 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · SF

Brandon AiyukWR

10/16 for 119 yds, 0 TD

36% of team targets · 1.0 expected points added

Receiving · WAS

Logan ThomasTE

6/7 for 43 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 1.2 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	SF	SF 25	8	33	2:03	Punt
2	WAS	WAS 12	4	6	1:32	Punt
3	SF	SF 24	6	11	3:16	Punt
4	WAS	WAS 40	8	25	2:59	Turnover on downs
5	SF	SF 43	8	52	4:23	Touchdown
6	WAS	WAS 25	5	2	0:47	Punt
7	SF	SF 20	7	29	2:36	Punt
8	WAS	WAS 15	4	5	1:28	Punt
9	SF	SF 32	4	-9	1:22	Punt
10	WAS	WAS 38	7	34	3:49	Turnover on downs
11	SF	SF 25	3	1	0:42	Fumble
12	WAS	SF 26	6	13	1:57	Turnover on downs
13	SF	SF 25	5	2	0:22	Punt
14	WAS	WAS 28	4	14	0:54	Interception
15	SF	SF 38	2	9	0:52	Defensive touchdown
16	SF	SF 25	7	20	0:53	Punt
17	WAS	WAS 20	1	0	0:05	End of half
18	WAS	WAS 25	12	72	4:55	Turnover on downs
19	SF	SF 25	5	-7	1:18	Punt
20	WAS	WAS 34	9	27	4:02	Punt
21	SF	SF 8	11	68	4:45	Defensive touchdown
22	SF	SF 25	13	62	4:42	Touchdown
23	WAS	WAS 25	5	-2	1:40	Punt
24	SF	SF 26	5	26	2:24	Punt
25	WAS	WAS 14	4	0	0:54	Punt
26	SF	SF 32	4	9	1:30	Punt
27	WAS	WAS 1	4	9	1:10	Punt
28	SF	SF 48	4	18	1:02	Turnover on downs
29	WAS	WAS 44	4	0	1:37	Punt
30	SF	SF 25	1	22	0:01	End of game

0 of 30 drives ended in points. Longest march: Commanders gained 72 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Washington Commanders

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	INT	Sacked	EPA
Alex Smith	8/19	57	1	1	-12.0
Dwayne Haskins	7/12	51	0	1	-4.7
Isaiah Wright	0/1	0	0	0	-0.6

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	EPA
J.D. McKissic	11	68	6.2	0.0
Peyton Barber	12	37	3.1	-0.6
Cam Sims	1	5	5.0	0.0
Dwayne Haskins	4	-12	-3.0	-0.1

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
Logan Thomas	6	7	43	24%	1.2
Terry McLaurin	2	6	24	21%	-2.6
J.D. McKissic	2	4	18	14%	-0.9
Isaiah Wright	1	1	9	3%	0.3
Cam Sims	1	2	8	7%	-2.6
Steven Sims	1	3	5	10%	-3.1
Peyton Barber	2	3	1	10%	-2.4
Jeremy Sprinkle	0	1	0	3%	-0.4
Robert Foster	0	2	0	7%	-2.1

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	INT	PD
Jon Bostic	4	6	0.0	0	1
Cole Holcomb	4	3	0.0	0	0
Chase Young	2	4	1.0	0	2
Kamren Curl	6	0	0.0	1	2
Deshazor Everett	4	2	0.0	0	0
Kendall Fuller	3	3	0.0	0	1
Daron Payne	1	4	1.0	0	1
Jeremy Reaves	3	2	0.0	0	1
Montez Sweat	5	0	1.0	0	0
Jonathan Allen	3	0	0.0	0	0

San Francisco 49ers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Nick Mullens	25/45	260	1	1	4	-23.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Raheem Mostert	14	65	4.6	0	0.7
Jeffery Wilson	11	31	2.8	1	-5.8
Deebo Samuel	1	9	9.0	0	0.9
Kyle Juszczyk	1	3	3.0	0	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Brandon Aiyuk	10	16	119	0	36%	1.0
Kendrick Bourne	3	7	42	0	16%	-1.4
Richie James	3	3	33	0	7%	3.5
Ross Dwelley	2	2	20	0	5%	1.1
Kyle Juszczyk	2	3	15	1	7%	-9.5
Jeffery Wilson	1	3	13	0	7%	-0.0
Jordan Reed	2	5	13	0	11%	0.5
Raheem Mostert	2	4	5	0	9%	-2.1
Charlie Woerner	0	1	0	0	2%	-1.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks
Jimmie Ward	2	5	0.0
Dre Greenlaw	5	1	0.0
Fred Warner	4	1	0.0
Azeez Al-Shaair	4	1	0.0
Javon Kinlaw	3	1	0.0
Tarvarius Moore	3	0	0.0
Dion Jordan	1	2	1.0
Kerry Hyder	2	1	0.0
Dontae Johnson	2	1	0.0
Richard Sherman	2	0	0.0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: SF -3
Closing total: 43.5
WAS moneyline: +134
SF moneyline: -149

49ers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 43.5; the game landed 38 — under by 5.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: State Farm Stadium
Roof / surface: closed · grass
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Carl Cheffers
Rest: WAS 6 days · SF 6 days
Coaches: Ron Rivera vs Kyle Shanahan