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2020 Week 14 · Sun, Dec 13, 2020 · State Farm Stadium
Final
CommandersWashington23
BY 8final margin
49ersSan Francisco15
Washington Commanders 23 at San Francisco 49ers 15. Final.
49ers -3 upset
The verdict · 2020 Week 14
Washington Commanders 23, 49ers 15 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 1:11, 1st and 10, on Nick Mullens — 31.0 win-probability points to the Commanders on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 1:11 · 1st and 10
Nick Mullens
Commanders
(1:11) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens sacked at SF 43 for -6 yards (94-D.Payne). FUMBLES (94-D.Payne) [94-D.Payne], RECOVERED by WAS-99-C.Young at SF 47. 99-C.Young for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
U 43.5 ✓
Dome
49ers closed -3 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Washington Commanders 23–15. Biggest swing: Q2 1:11, Commanders +31.0% win probability on one snap.
31.0
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Jeffery WilsonCommandersQ2 5:09(5:09) (Shotgun) 30-J.Wilson right tackle to SF 29 for -2 yards (99-C.Young). FUMBLES (99-C.Young), RECOVERED by WAS-94-D.Payne at SF 26.
19.0pts
Kamren CurlCommandersQ3 0:01(:01) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short right intended for 44-K.Juszczyk INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Curl at WAS 24. 31-K.Curl for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
28.7pts
What separated them
Red zone
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 2 touchdowns on 2 trips, against Commanders at 0 touchdowns on 2 trips.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Giveaways
Commanders won this one — 1 giveaway, against 49ers at 3 giveaways.
Commandersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
49ers owned this one and still lost it — 44% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Commanders at 33% of snaps stayed on schedule.
49ersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Running the ball
Commanders won this one — -0.02 expected points per carry, against 49ers at -0.15 expected points per carry.
3 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 2.5 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 9 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Commanders.
MarketModelmodel higher on 49ershigher on Commanders184 of 196 plays carry both curves
(1:11) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens sacked at SF 43 for -6 yards (94-D.Payne). FUMBLES (94-D.Payne) [94-D.Payne], RECOVERED by WAS-99-C.Young at SF 47. 99-C.Young for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Swing −31.0 for 49ersExpected points −9.23 for 49ersModel and market agree here.play 90
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 1:11WAS +31% win prob(1:11) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens sacked at SF 43 for -6 yards (94-D.Payne). FUMBLES (94-D.Payne) [94-D.Payne], RECOVERED by WAS-99-C.Young at SF 47. 99-C.Young for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
3rd · 0:01WAS +29% win prob(:01) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short right intended for 44-K.Juszczyk INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Curl at WAS 24. 31-K.Curl for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
2nd · 5:09WAS +19% win prob(5:09) (Shotgun) 30-J.Wilson right tackle to SF 29 for -2 yards (99-C.Young). FUMBLES (99-C.Young), RECOVERED by WAS-94-D.Payne at SF 26.
1st · 5:14WAS +12% win prob(5:14) 3-D.Hopkins 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
2nd · 1:56WAS +10% win prob(1:56) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep left intended for 89-C.Sims INTERCEPTED by 22-J.Verrett at SF 38. 22-J.Verrett to SF 38 for no gain (89-C.Sims).
3rd · 1:09SF +7% win prob(1:09) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens pass short right to 30-J.Wilson pushed ob at WAS 32 for 13 yards (39-J.Reaves).
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Chase Young's 47-yard touchdown with 1:11 left in the 2nd put Washington Commanders ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
4th10:24Kyle Juszczyk·6-yd TD catch6-yard touchdown catchfrom Nick Mullensfrom Nick Mullens · two-point good+823–15
7 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Commanderscategory by category49ers
Commanders2–649ers
205Total yards346
3.5Yards per play4.5
33%Success rate44%
21%Third-down rate27%
0Red-zone touchdowns2
3Explosive plays3
12First downs21
2Sacks taken4
1Turnovers3
The read
49ers ahead 6–2 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.51 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.31Commanders: −0.31 expected points added per play
−0.3549ers: −0.35 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
−0.51Commanders: −0.51 expected points added per play
−0.4749ers: −0.47 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.02Commanders: −0.02 expected points added per play
−0.1549ers: −0.15 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Commanders ran 58 snaps at a 59% dropback rate against 49ers’s 77 at 65%. Red-zone trips: Commanders 2, 49ers 2.
Note49ers outgained Commanders 346-205 but lost the turnover battle 3-1. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
WAS's sack or hit rate turned over: 3.8% in week 13 against 24.0% here — they stayed blocked then and got home now, a turn of 2.4 of their own weekly swings across the two.
50 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 8.4 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -14 pts to 16 pts
inside their normal wobble · +8.3 vs their 15.7%, and they swing ±8.4 week to week (+0.98× that swing) · 50 dropbacks
49ers14.7%
right on their number · +2.6 vs their 12.1%, and they swing ±6.7 week to week (+0.39× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteWAS's fourth-and-short go rate was the night's one real departure: 0.0%, 25.8 points below their season mean of 25.8% and 1.3 times their own 20.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The 49ers attack right, the Commanders attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Commanders←49ers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
N.Mullens sacked−34% win probabilitymoment 3 of 4
(1:11) (Shotgun) 4-N.Mullens sacked at SF 43 for -6 yards (94-D.Payne). FUMBLES (94-D.Payne) [94-D.Payne], RECOVERED by WAS-99-C.Young at SF 47. 99-C.Young for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Q2 1:11 · 49ers · 1st & 10 at SF 49 · lost 2 · -9.23 EP · −33.7% win probability
182 snaps placed · 14 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 196 plays across 30 drives, personnel groupings on 196 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 30 drives ended in points. The longest march was SF moving 75 yards from the SF 25 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; SF attacks right, WAS attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
196 of 196 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
196
EPA per play
-0.26
Success rate
37%
Yards
539
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Commanders1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR44-0.3466%
49ers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR37-0.4449%
49ers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR30-0.4890%
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.4333%
49ers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR5-0.1860%
49ers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR4——
Commanders2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Commanders1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR3——
49ers2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR1——
Commanders2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
Commanders1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
196 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
196 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter44 plays
Punt9 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Commanders 42
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 12 to the Commanders 18
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 24 to the 49ers 43
No good8 plays, from the Commanders 40 to the 49ers 35
Commanders049ers6
Commanders049ers7
Touchdown9 plays, from the 49ers 43 to the Commanders 1
Punt5 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the Commanders 27
2nd quarter59 plays
Punt8 plays, from the 49ers 20 to the 49ers 45
Punt4 plays, from the Commanders 15 to the Commanders 22
Punt5 plays
Commanders349ers7
Field goal8 plays, from the Commanders 38 to the 49ers 33
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, three linebackers and four backsIn the boxSeven defenders
Fumble lost3 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 31
Commanders649ers7
Field goal6 plays, from the 49ers 26 to the 49ers 8
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 27
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 4, quartersMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerThreePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.8 seconds
Intercepted4 plays, from the Commanders 28 to the Commanders 42
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFive
Commanders1249ers7
Touchdown2 plays, from the 49ers 38 to the 49ers 49
Commanders1349ers7
Punt10 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the 49ers 45
The period ended2 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Commanders1649ers7
Field goal12 plays, from the Commanders 25 to the 49ers 3
Punt5 plays
Punt9 plays, from the Commanders 34 to the 49ers 39
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldTwo backs, one tight end and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxEight defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw3.6 seconds
Commanders2249ers7
Touchdown11 plays, from the 49ers 8 to the Commanders 24
Commanders2349ers7
4th quarter54 plays
Commanders2349ers13
Commanders2349ers15
Touchdown13 plays, from the 49ers 25 to the Commanders 6
Punt5 plays
Punt6 plays, from the 49ers 26 to the 49ers 42
Punt4 plays
Punt4 plays, from the 49ers 32 to the 49ers 41
Punt7 plays, from the Commanders 1 to the Commanders 10
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the 49ers 48 to the Commanders 44
Punt8 plays
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Commanderscategory by category49ers
Commanders0
49ers6
