2020 Week 15 · Sat, Dec 19, 2020 · Empower Field at Mile High

Buffalo BillsWinner

Denver Broncos

BUF -5.5 ✓O 49 ✓24 mph windBills closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 29.

Buffalo Bills 48–19 — never really in doubt late. Biggest swing: Q1 10:15, BUF +6% win probability on one snap. Played in 24 mph wind — weigh that when reading the passing lines.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q1 · 10:15BUF — DEN DEN ball · 4th & 7BUF 70%

(10:15) 1-T.Russolino 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q1 · 10:15BUF +6% win prob(10:15) 1-T.Russolino 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.
Q1 · 12:24DEN +6% win prob(12:24) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock scrambles up the middle to BUF 36 for 13 yards (24-T.Johnson).
Q1 · 8:12DEN +6% win prob(8:12) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 14-S.Diggs ran ob at DEN 31 for 15 yards. Penalty on DEN-41-D.Bausby, Illegal Contact, declined.
Q2 · 6:34DEN +6% win prob(6:34) (Shotgun) 25-M.Gordon left guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bills	Broncos
Offensive plays	65	63
Total yards	534 (edge)	255
Yards per play	8.2 (edge)	4.0
Expected points added / play	0.50 (edge)	-0.13
Success rate	54% (edge)	43%
Dropback rate	66%	62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.69 (edge)	-0.32
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.12	0.17 (edge)
Third downs	9/13 (edge)	6/14
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	10 (edge)	5
First downs gained on snaps	25 (edge)	18
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	0 (edge)	1

Bills won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.50 expected points added per play vs -0.13.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · BUF

Josh AllenQB

28/40, 359 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

25.7 expected points added · +12.1% completion over expected

Passing · DEN

Drew LockQB

20/32, 132 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-13.5 expected points added · -11.2% completion over expected

Rushing · BUF

Zack MossRB

13 att, 81 yds, 0 TD

-0.3 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · BUF

Devin SingletaryRB

8 att, 68 yds, 1 TD

2.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · BUF

Stefon DiggsWR

11/13 for 147 yds, 0 TD

34% of team targets · 12.1 expected points added

Receiving · BUF

Cole BeasleyWR

8/10 for 112 yds, 0 TD

26% of team targets · 7.8 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	DEN	DEN 25	11	42	4:50	Turnover on downs
2	BUF	BUF 41	14	54	6:05	Touchdown
3	DEN	DEN 25	7	25	3:26	Punt
4	BUF	BUF 5	12	90	5:09	Touchdown
5	DEN	DEN 25	5	0	1:01	Punt
6	DEN	BUF 35	7	35	3:01	Touchdown
7	BUF	BUF 24	5	4	1:11	Punt
8	DEN	DEN 5	4	2	1:02	Punt
9	BUF	BUF 41	6	79	2:26	Touchdown
10	DEN	DEN 25	11	60	1:44	Touchdown
11	BUF	—	1	0	0:05	End of half
12	BUF	DEN 43	9	53	4:02	Touchdown
13	DEN	DEN 25	2	-4	0:17	Defensive touchdown
14	DEN	DEN 25	5	-2	1:38	Punt
15	BUF	BUF 32	5	64	2:06	Turnover on downs
16	DEN	DEN 4	4	3	1:25	Punt
17	BUF	BUF 42	10	53	4:48	Turnover on downs
18	DEN	DEN 25	8	14	2:12	Punt
19	BUF	BUF 5	12	86	7:46	Turnover on downs
20	DEN	DEN 25	14	75	3:54	Touchdown
21	BUF	BUF 49	3	51	0:12	Touchdown
22	DEN	DEN 25	4	5	1:40	End of game

0 of 22 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bills gained 90 scrimmage yards over 12 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Buffalo Bills

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Josh Allen	28/40	359	2	0	1	25.7

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Zack Moss	13	81	6.2	0	-0.3
Devin Singletary	8	68	8.5	1	2.4
Josh Allen	3	33	11.0	2	4.7

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Stefon Diggs	11	13	147	0	34%	12.1
Cole Beasley	8	10	112	0	26%	7.8
Dawson Knox	2	4	36	1	11%	3.7
Jake Kumerow	1	1	22	1	3%	3.9
Gabe Davis	2	5	18	0	13%	1.3
Devin Singletary	3	3	16	0	8%	0.1
Isaiah McKenzie	1	1	8	0	3%	0.2
Lee Smith	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.8

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Tremaine Edmunds	8	0	0.0	0
Jordan Poyer	4	4	0.0	0
Tyler Matakevich	5	2	0.0	0
Matt Milano	5	1	0.0	0
Taron Johnson	4	0	0.0	1
Mario Addison	2	2	1.0	0
A.J. Klein	2	2	0.0	0
Tre'Davious White	3	0	1.0	2
Harrison Phillips	3	0	0.0	0
Ed Oliver	2	1	1.0	1

Denver Broncos

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Drew Lock	20/32	132	1	0	3	-13.5

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Melvin Gordon	11	61	5.5	2	5.1
Phillip Lindsay	11	38	3.5	0	-1.9
Drew Lock	5	37	7.4	0	2.1
Royce Freeman	1	4	4.0	0	-0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Noah Fant	8	11	68	1	34%	5.4
Melvin Gordon	4	4	20	0	13%	0.4
Jerry Jeudy	1	5	19	0	16%	-3.4
Tim Patrick	3	4	14	0	13%	-0.1
Phillip Lindsay	3	3	7	0	9%	-1.2
K.J. Hamler	1	4	4	0	13%	-1.9
Nick Vannett	0	1	0	0	3%	-0.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Kareem Jackson	7	2	0.0	0
Josey Jewell	1	6	0.0	0
Justin Simmons	5	1	0.0	0
Alexander Johnson	2	4	0.0	0
De'Vante Bausby	6	0	0.0	1
DeShawn Williams	3	2	0.0	0
Jeremiah Attaochu	3	1	1.0	0
Will Parks	3	0	0.0	0
Michael Ojemudia	3	0	0.0	0
Joseph Jones	1	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: BUF -5.5
Closing total: 49
BUF moneyline: -242
DEN moneyline: +212

Bills closed -5.5 and covered, winning by 29.

Total closed 49; the game landed 67 — over by 18.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 47°F, wind 24 mph
Referee: Clete Blakeman
Rest: BUF 6 days · DEN 6 days
Coaches: Sean McDermott vs Vic Fangio

Wind at 24 mph is the kind that drags passing depth and kicking range — weigh it when reading the splits.