2020 Week 15 · Sat, Dec 19, 2020 · Lambeau Field

Carolina Panthers

Green Bay PackersWinner

GB -9.5 no coverU 53 ✓Packers closed -9.5, won by 8 — but didn't cover.

Green Bay Packers 24–16. Biggest swing: Q2 7:39, CAR +7% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q2 · 7:39CAR — GB CAR ball · 1st & 1GB 90%

(7:39) (No Huddle) 5-T.Bridgewater up the middle to GB 1 for no gain (51-K.Barnes). FUMBLES (51-K.Barnes), RECOVERED by GB-20-K.King at GB 5. 20-K.King to CAR 47 for 48 yards (12-D.Moore).

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q2 · 7:39CAR +7% win prob(7:39) (No Huddle) 5-T.Bridgewater up the middle to GB 1 for no gain (51-K.Barnes). FUMBLES (51-K.Barnes), RECOVERED by GB-20-K.King at GB 5. 20-K.King to CAR 47 for 48 yards (12-D.Moore).
Q1 · 12:55GB +6% win prob(12:55) 33-A.Jones right tackle to CAR 26 for 46 yards (21-J.Chinn).
Q1 · 13:45GB +4% win prob(13:45) 3-J.Charlton punts 50 yards to GB 19, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 16-T.Austin.
Q1 · 8:01GB +4% win prob(8:01) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 80-I.Thomas ran ob at GB 22 for 15 yards (58-C.Kirksey).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Panthers	Packers
Offensive plays	65	60
Total yards	364 (edge)	292
Yards per play	5.6 (edge)	4.9
Expected points added / play	-0.02	0.08 (edge)
Success rate	51% (edge)	47%
Dropback rate	65%	62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.14 (edge)	-0.11
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	-0.31	0.38 (edge)
Third downs	4/12	5/12 (edge)
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	7 (edge)	6
First downs gained on snaps	18 (edge)	17
Sacks taken	3 (edge)	5
Turnovers	1	0 (edge)

Panthers outgained Packers 364–292 but lost the turnover battle 1–0. That was the game.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · CAR

Teddy BridgewaterQB

21/35, 258 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

1.3 expected points added · -6.8% completion over expected

Passing · GB

Aaron RodgersQB

20/29, 143 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

-7.1 expected points added · +4.4% completion over expected

Rushing · GB

Aaron JonesRB

20 att, 145 yds, 1 TD

6.7 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · CAR

Mike DavisRB

14 att, 59 yds, 0 TD

1.1 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · CAR

D.J. MooreWR

6/8 for 131 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 4.2 expected points added

Receiving · GB

Allen LazardWR

5/6 for 56 yds, 0 TD

23% of team targets · 3.3 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CAR	CAR 23	5	8	1:23	Punt
2	GB	GB 19	8	81	3:43	Touchdown
3	CAR	CAR 25	9	57	3:57	Turnover on downs
4	GB	GB 25	15	74	6:48	Touchdown
5	CAR	CAR 25	13	65	6:40	Fumble
6	GB	CAR 47	8	42	3:31	Touchdown
7	CAR	CAR 30	5	0	0:30	Punt
8	GB	GB 25	8	34	1:59	Punt
9	CAR	CAR 5	5	20	0:34	Punt
10	GB	GB 31	5	11	0:55	Punt
11	GB	GB 25	5	3	0:55	Punt
12	CAR	CAR 36	6	10	2:53	Punt
13	GB	GB 15	4	-1	2:04	Punt
14	CAR	CAR 49	8	46	3:53	Touchdown
15	GB	GB 25	6	14	2:52	Punt
16	CAR	CAR 20	16	86	8:44	Turnover on downs
17	GB	GB 25	11	42	5:00	Turnover on downs
18	CAR	CAR 24	7	61	1:35	Turnover on downs
19	GB	GB 25	5	-8	1:09	Punt
20	CAR	CAR 20	4	11	0:42	Turnover on downs
21	GB	CAR 26	1	0	0:13	End of game

0 of 21 drives ended in points. Longest march: Panthers gained 86 scrimmage yards over 16 plays for a turnover on downs.

Full stat lines

Box score

Carolina Panthers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Teddy Bridgewater	21/35	258	0	0	3	1.3

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Mike Davis	14	59	4.2	0	1.1
Teddy Bridgewater	4	26	6.5	1	-4.1
Rodney Smith	4	23	5.8	0	2.6
Curtis Samuel	2	6	3.0	0	-0.3
D.J. Moore	1	1	1.0	0	-0.5
Brandon Zylstra	1	1	1.0	0	-0.4
Robbie Chosen	1	-1	-1.0	0	-1.0

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	Tgt share	EPA
D.J. Moore	6	8	131	24%	4.2
Curtis Samuel	4	9	42	26%	1.7
Ian Thomas	3	4	29	12%	3.1
Rodney Smith	3	4	24	12%	-1.0
Robbie Chosen	2	5	21	15%	-1.8
Alex Armah	1	1	9	3%	0.8
Mike Davis	2	2	2	6%	-2.0
Pharoh Cooper	0	1	0	3%	-0.6

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Jeremy Chinn	5	2	0.0	0
Jermaine Carter	2	4	0.0	0
Tre Boston	3	3	0.0	0
Rasul Douglas	5	1	0.0	0
Donte Jackson	3	2	0.0	0
Shaq Thompson	4	1	0.0	0
Brian Burns	4	0	2.0	0
Juston Burris	2	2	0.0	0
Myles Hartsfield	2	1	0.0	1
Derrick Brown	3	0	2.0	0

Green Bay Packers

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Aaron Rodgers	20/29	143	1	0	5	-7.1

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Aaron Jones	20	145	7.3	1	6.7
Aaron Rodgers	5	26	5.2	1	1.6
A.J. Dillon	1	18	18.0	0	1.4
Jamaal Williams	1	6	6.0	0	0.2

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Allen Lazard	5	6	56	0	23%	3.3
Davante Adams	7	10	42	0	38%	-0.8
Robert Tonyan	3	3	18	1	12%	2.1
Jamaal Williams	2	2	14	0	8%	0.1
Aaron Jones	3	4	13	0	15%	-1.4
Marquez Valdes-Scantling	0	1	0	0	4%	-1.4

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Christian Kirksey	5	4	0.0	0
Adrian Amos	6	1	1.0	3
Kevin King	6	0	0.0	0
Darnell Savage	5	0	0.0	1
Krys Barnes	5	0	0.0	0
Kamal Martin	2	2	0.0	0
Kenny Clark	1	2	0.0	0
Chandon Sullivan	3	0	0.0	1
Jaire Alexander	3	0	0.0	1
Rashan Gary	1	2	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: GB -9.5
Closing total: 53
CAR moneyline: +346
GB moneyline: -419

Packers closed -9.5, won by 8 — but didn't cover.

Total closed 53; the game landed 40 — under by 13.0.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: Lambeau Field
Roof / surface: outdoors · grass
Kickoff weather: 33°F, wind 5 mph
Referee: Alex Kemp
Rest: CAR 6 days · GB 6 days
Coaches: Matt Rhule vs Matt LaFleur