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DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:43 AM ET · 16 to play
Carolina Panthers 16 at Green Bay Packers 24. Final.
Packers -9.5 no coverU 53 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 15
Green Bay Packers 24, Panthers 16 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q2 7:39, 1st and 1, on Teddy Bridgewater — 6.7 win-probability points to the Packers on one snap, the largest move of the game.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q2 7:39 · 1st and 1
Teddy Bridgewater
Packers
(7:39) (No Huddle) 5-T.Bridgewater up the middle to GB 1 for no gain (51-K.Barnes). FUMBLES (51-K.Barnes), RECOVERED by GB-20-K.King at GB 5. 20-K.King to CAR 47 for 48 yards (12-D.Moore).
29°F
Packers closed -9.5, won by 8 — but didn't cover.
Green Bay Packers 24–16. Biggest swing: Q2 7:39, Packers +6.7% win probability on one snap.
6.7
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Unnamed on the sheetPanthersQ1 13:45(13:45) 3-J.Charlton punts 50 yards to GB 19, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 16-T.Austin.
4.3pts
Aaron JonesPackersQ1 12:55(12:55) 33-A.Jones right tackle to CAR 26 for 46 yards (21-J.Chinn).
6.4pts
What separated them
Running the ball
Packers won this one — +0.38 expected points per carry, against Panthers at -0.31 expected points per carry.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Red zone
Packers won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Panthers at 1 touchdown on 5 trips.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Giveaways
Packers won this one — no giveaways, against Panthers at 1 giveaway.
Packersthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Panthers owned this one and still lost it — +0.14 expected points per dropback, against Packers at -0.11 expected points per dropback.
Panthersthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
1 of the 3 swings name a man the week's roster cannot confirm, so that portrait is withheld.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 7.8 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 27 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Panthers.
MarketModelmodel higher on Packershigher on Panthers161 of 171 plays carry both curves
(7:39) (No Huddle) 5-T.Bridgewater up the middle to GB 1 for no gain (51-K.Barnes). FUMBLES (51-K.Barnes), RECOVERED by GB-20-K.King at GB 5. 20-K.King to CAR 47 for 48 yards (12-D.Moore).
Swing +6.7 for PackersExpected points +9.01 for PackersThe model had Panthers 16 points higher than the market did.play 55
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
2nd · 7:39CAR +7% win prob(7:39) (No Huddle) 5-T.Bridgewater up the middle to GB 1 for no gain (51-K.Barnes). FUMBLES (51-K.Barnes), RECOVERED by GB-20-K.King at GB 5. 20-K.King to CAR 47 for 48 yards (12-D.Moore).
1st · 12:55GB +6% win prob(12:55) 33-A.Jones right tackle to CAR 26 for 46 yards (21-J.Chinn).
1st · 13:45GB +4% win prob(13:45) 3-J.Charlton punts 50 yards to GB 19, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 16-T.Austin.
1st · 8:01GB +4% win prob(8:01) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 80-I.Thomas ran ob at GB 22 for 15 yards (58-C.Kirksey).
1st · 13:50CAR +3% win prob(13:50) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass incomplete short middle to 12-D.Moore.
1st · 9:25GB +3% win prob(9:25) 5-T.Bridgewater pass deep left to 12-D.Moore to GB 39 for 37 yards (31-A.Amos).
2nd · 8:06
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Robert Tonyan's 1-yard touchdown catch with 9:58 left in the 1st put Green Bay Packers ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 7 scores that followed.
4th8:42Joey Slye·22-yd field goal22-yard field goalholder J.Charlton · snap J.Jansen+313–21
4th3:44Mason Crosby·51-yd field goal51-yard field goalholder J.Scott · snap H.Bradley+313–24
4th2:08Joey Slye·33-yd field goal33-yard field goalholder J.Charlton · snap J.Jansen+316–24
8 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Pantherscategory by categoryPackers
Panthers6–3Packers
364Total yards292
5.6Yards per play4.9
51%Success rate47%
33%Third-down rate42%
1Red-zone touchdowns3
7Explosive plays6
18First downs17
3Sacks taken5
1Turnovers0
The read
Panthers ahead 6–3 on categories, but the biggest gap belongs to Packers, in turnovers.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.38 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
−0.02Panthers: −0.02 expected points added per play
+0.08Packers: +0.08 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.14Panthers: +0.14 expected points added per play
−0.11Packers: −0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.31Panthers: −0.31 expected points added per play
+0.38Packers: +0.38 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Panthers ran 65 snaps at a 65% dropback rate against Packers’s 60 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Panthers 5, Packers 3.
NotePanthers outgained Packers 364-292 but lost the turnover battle 1-0. That was the game.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 7 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
Nothing cleared the bars. No reading led the week's slate, set a season mark, reversed the week before, or sat two of the team's own standard deviations off their number — which is what most Sundays look like, and is the finding rather than a gap.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -13 pts to 18 pts
right on their number · +0.1 vs their 13.4%, and they swing ±6.0 week to week (+0.01× that swing) · 37 dropbacks
Packers14.3%
right on their number · +1.4 vs their 12.9%, and they swing ±4.7 week to week (+0.31× that swing) · 42 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteGB's pass rate over expected was the night's one real departure: 9.4 pts, 6.8 points above their season mean of 2.7 pts and 1.1 times their own 6.2-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Packers attack right, the Panthers attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Panthers←Packers→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
T.Bridgewater up−15% win probabilitymoment 4 of 4
(7:39) (No Huddle) 5-T.Bridgewater up the middle to GB 1 for no gain (51-K.Barnes). FUMBLES (51-K.Barnes), RECOVERED by GB-20-K.King at GB 5. 20-K.King to CAR 47 for 48 yards (12-D.Moore).
Q2 7:39 · Panthers · 1st & goal at GB 1 · lost 4 · -9.01 EP · −14.6% win probability
159 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 171 plays across 21 drives, personnel groupings on 171 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
8 of 21 drives ended in points. The longest march was GB moving 81 yards from the GB 19 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; GB attacks right, CAR attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
171 of 171 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
171
EPA per play
+0.03
Success rate
46%
Yards
655
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Packers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR41-0.0163%
Panthers1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR38-0.1874%
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR15+0.3433%
Panthers1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR12+0.5625%
Panthers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5-0.1240%
Panthers0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR5+0.0840%
Packers2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR3——
Panthers0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR2——
Panthers2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR2——
Panthers1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR1——
Packers1 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
171 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
171 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 23 to the Panthers 31
Panthers0Packers6
Panthers0Packers7
Touchdown8 plays, from the Packers 19 to the Panthers 1
Panthers3Packers7
Field goal9 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Packers 18
The period ended13 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Panthers 24
2nd quarter52 plays
Panthers3Packers13
Panthers3Packers14
Touchdown4 plays, from the Panthers 10 to the Panthers 6
FormationSingle backOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldOne lineman, four linebackers and six backsIn the boxEight defenders
Fumble lost14 plays, from the Panthers 25 to the Packers 1
Panthers3Packers20
Panthers3Packers21
Touchdown8 plays, from the Panthers 47 to the Panthers 8
Punt5 plays
Punt10 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Panthers 41
Punt5 plays, from the Panthers 5 to the Panthers 25
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 31 to the Packers 32
3rd quarter35 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 28
Punt6 plays, from the Panthers 36 to the Panthers 46
Punt4 plays, from the Packers 15 to the Packers 23
Panthers9Packers21
Panthers10Packers21
Touchdown9 plays, from the Panthers 49 to the Packers 13
Punt6 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 46
The period ended5 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Panthers 40
4th quarter47 plays
Panthers13Packers21
Field goal14 plays, from the Panthers 46 to the Packers 4
Panthers13Packers24
Field goal12 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Panthers 25
Panthers16Packers24
Field goal7 plays, from the Panthers 24 to the Packers 15
Punt7 plays, from the Packers 25 to the Packers 32
Turnover on downs5 plays, from the Panthers 20 to the Panthers 26
The period ended2 plays
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
Pantherscategory by categoryPackers
Panthers0
Packers6
