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2020 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 20, 2020 · U.S. Bank Stadium
Final
BearsChicago33
BY 6final margin
VikingsMinnesota27
Chicago Bears 33 at Minnesota Vikings 27. Final.
Vikings -2.5 upsetO 47.5 ✓
The verdict · 2020 Week 15
Chicago Bears 33, Vikings 27 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q4 3:02, 3rd and 6, on Cameron Dantzler — 20.3 win-probability points to the Vikings on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q4 3:02 · 3rd and 6
Cameron Dantzler
Vikings
(3:02) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left intended for 81-J.Holtz INTERCEPTED by 27-C.Dantzler at MIN -8. Touchback.
Dome
Vikings closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Chicago Bears 33–27. Biggest swing: Q4 3:02, Vikings +20.3% win probability on one snap.
20.3
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Kirk CousinsBearsQ4 2:00(2:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 83-T.Conklin.
17.8pts
Sherrick McManisBearsQ4 0:07(:07) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right INTERCEPTED by 27-S.McManis (39-E.Jackson) at CHI -2. Touchback.
11.7pts
What separated them
Explosive plays
Vikings owned this one and still lost it — 12 chunk plays, against Bears at 8 chunk plays.
Vikingsthe gap went the other way from the scoreboard
Third down
Bears won this one — 6 of 12 on third down, against Vikings at 4 of 11 on third down.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Running the ball
Bears won this one — +0.04 expected points per carry, against Vikings at -0.12 expected points per carry.
Bearsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Every snap
Bears won this one — +0.14 expected points per snap, against Vikings at +0.03 expected points per snap.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 1.9 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 5 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Bears.
MarketModelmodel higher on Vikingshigher on Bears165 of 176 plays carry both curves
(3:02) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left intended for 81-J.Holtz INTERCEPTED by 27-C.Dantzler at MIN -8. Touchback.
Swing +20.3 for VikingsExpected points +5.07 for VikingsModel and market agree here.play 157
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
4th · 3:02CHI +20% win prob(3:02) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left intended for 81-J.Holtz INTERCEPTED by 27-C.Dantzler at MIN -8. Touchback.
4th · 2:00CHI +18% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 83-T.Conklin.
4th · 0:07CHI +12% win prob(:07) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right INTERCEPTED by 27-S.McManis (39-E.Jackson) at CHI -2. Touchback.
4th · 6:30MIN +9% win prob(6:30) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 12-A.Robinson to MIN 19 for 35 yards (47-H.Nickerson).
3rd · 4:54MIN +9% win prob(4:54) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 83-T.Conklin to CHI 19 for 30 yards (39-E.Jackson).
1st · 9:22MIN +9% win prob(9:22) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 12-A.Robinson pushed ob at MIN 8 for 24 yards (20-J.Gladney). Minnesota challenged the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Cairo Santos's 42-yard field goal with 1:20 left in the 1st put Chicago Bears ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 9 scores that followed.
4th1:00Cairo Santos·42-yd field goal42-yard field goalholder P.O'Donnell · snap P.Scales+333–27
12 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Bearscategory by categoryVikings
Bears3–3Vikings
397Total yards407
6.2Yards per play6.3
58%Success rate54%
50%Third-down rate36%
3Red-zone touchdowns3
8Explosive plays12
23First downs23
1Sacks taken3
1Turnovers1
The read
Deadlocked at 3–3 categories. Biggest gap to Bears, in sacks taken.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.35 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.14Bears: +0.14 expected points added per play
+0.03Vikings: +0.03 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.27Bears: +0.27 expected points added per play
+0.11Vikings: +0.11 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
+0.04Bears: +0.04 expected points added per play
−0.12Vikings: −0.12 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Bears ran 64 snaps at a 41% dropback rate against Vikings’s 65 at 62%. Red-zone trips: Bears 5, Vikings 5.
NoteBears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs 0.03.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
CHI's pass rate over expected turned over: +11.4 pts in week 14 against −7.4 pts here — they threw more than the situation asked then and ran more than the situation asked now, a turn of 3.1 of their own weekly swings across the two.
64 snaps this game, floor 20 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.1 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
8 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -22 pts to 17 pts
leaned — got home · +8.2 vs their 14.3%, and they swing ±7.1 week to week (+1.15× that swing) · 40 dropbacks
Vikings7.7%
right on their number · −3.6 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±7.6 week to week (−0.47× that swing) · 26 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteCHI's early-down pass rate was the night's one real departure: 34.6%, 25.0 points below their season mean of 59.6% and 2.1 times their own 12.0-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Vikings attack right, the Bears attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Bears←Vikings→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
M.Trubisky pass−21% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(3:02) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left intended for 81-J.Holtz INTERCEPTED by 27-C.Dantzler at MIN -8. Touchback.
Q4 3:02 · Bears · 3rd & goal at MIN 6 · gained nothing · -5.07 EP · −21.2% win probability
163 snaps placed · 13 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 176 plays across 20 drives, personnel groupings on 176 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
12 of 20 drives ended in points. The longest march was CHI moving 76 yards from the CHI 24 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; MIN attacks right, CHI attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
176 of 176 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
176
EPA per play
+0.09
Success rate
52%
Yards
804
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Bears1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR29+0.3928%
Bears1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR23+0.3535%
Vikings1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR22+0.2664%
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR20-0.2435%
Vikings1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR13+0.1462%
Vikings0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR9-0.1989%
Bears1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR4——
Bears0 RB, 2 TE, 3 WR3——
Bears0 RB, 1 TE, 4 WR3——
Bears2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Vikings2 RB, 1 TE, 1 WR1——
Bears0 RB, 3 TE, 2 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
176 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
176 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter40 plays
Punt5 plays, from the Bears 39 to the Bears 48
Punt4 plays, from the Vikings 12 to the Vikings 16
Bears6Vikings0
Bears7Vikings0
Touchdown6 plays, from the Bears 42 to the Vikings 8
Bears7Vikings6
Bears7Vikings7
Touchdown10 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Bears 3
Bears10Vikings7
Field goal9 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Vikings 24
The period ended5 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 40
2nd quarter51 plays
Punt3 plays
Bears16Vikings7
Bears17Vikings7
Touchdown18 plays, from the Bears 24 to the Vikings 1
Turnover on downs6 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Vikings 34
Bears20Vikings7
Field goal6 plays, from the Vikings 34 to the Vikings 17
Bears20Vikings10
Field goal15 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Bears 6
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter39 plays
Bears20Vikings16
Bears20Vikings17
Touchdown11 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Bears 1
Bears26Vikings17
Bears27Vikings17
Touchdown13 plays, from the Bears 25 to the Vikings 14
Bears27Vikings20
Field goal8 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Bears 4
The period ended7 plays, from the Bears 28 to the Vikings 37
4th quarter46 plays
Bears30Vikings20
Field goal3 plays, from the Vikings 32 to the Vikings 30
Bears30Vikings26
Bears30Vikings27
Touchdown14 plays, from the Vikings 25 to the Bears 20
FormationEmpty backfieldOffense on the fieldThree tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldThree linemen, three linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 0, no safety helpMan or zoneManIn the boxFive defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was kept cleanTime to throw2.6 seconds
Intercepted10 plays, from the Bears 29 to the Vikings 5
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, two tight ends and two receiversDefense on the fieldFive linemen, two linebackers and four backsRoute runFlatCoverageCover 1, man with a free safetyMan or zoneManIn the boxSeven defendersRushing the passerFivePressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw4.2 seconds
Turnover on downs4 plays, from the Vikings 20 to the Vikings 29
Bears33Vikings27
Field goal7 plays, from the Vikings 29 to the Vikings 24
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldTwo linemen, two linebackers and seven backsCoveragePreventMan or zoneZoneIn the boxThree defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw3.9 seconds
Intercepted7 plays, from the Vikings 30 to the Bears 33
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
The cards are drawn from the play-by-play sync, not live, and each one says so on its face.
Closing number vs result
Betting context
Closing spread
Vikings -2.5
Closing total
47.5
Bears moneyline
+137
Vikings moneyline
-152
Vikings closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.
Total closed 47.5; the game landed 60 — over by 12.5.
Conditions and crew
Game environment
Venue
U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface
dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather
Played indoors — no weather to report.
Referee
Shawn Smith
Rest
Bears 7 days · Vikings 7 days
Coaches
Matt Nagy vs Mike Zimmer
NoteDivision game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.
1st · 6:34
MIN +7% win prob
(6:34) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 18-J.Jefferson to CHI 10 for 23 yards (39-E.Jackson) [90-J.Jenkins].
3rd · 12:51MIN +7% win prob(12:51) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 18-J.Jefferson to CHI 28 for 16 yards (22-K.Vildor) [96-A.Hicks]. PENALTY on CHI-96-A.Hicks, Roughing the Passer, 14 yards, enforced at CHI 28.
