2020 Week 15 · Sun, Dec 20, 2020 · U.S. Bank Stadium

Chicago BearsWinner

Minnesota Vikings

MIN -2.5 upsetO 47.5 ✓DomeVikings closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Chicago Bears 33–27. Biggest swing: Q4 3:02, CHI +20% win probability on one snap.

The game in one curve — scrub to replay it

Win probability

Q4 · 3:02CHI — MIN CHI ball · 3rd & 6CHI 87%

(3:02) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left intended for 81-J.Holtz INTERCEPTED by 27-C.Dantzler at MIN -8. Touchback.

Market-anchored home win probability, play by play. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest momentum swings — tap one to jump there.

Highest-leverage plays

Q4 · 3:02CHI +20% win prob(3:02) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left intended for 81-J.Holtz INTERCEPTED by 27-C.Dantzler at MIN -8. Touchback.
Q4 · 2:00CHI +18% win prob(2:00) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 83-T.Conklin.
Q4 · 0:07CHI +12% win prob(:07) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right INTERCEPTED by 27-S.McManis (39-E.Jackson) at CHI -2. Touchback.
Q4 · 6:30MIN +9% win prob(6:30) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 12-A.Robinson to MIN 19 for 35 yards (47-H.Nickerson).

Down-to-down truth

Situational splits

Metric	Bears	Vikings
Offensive plays	64	65
Total yards	397	407 (edge)
Yards per play	6.2	6.3 (edge)
Expected points added / play	0.14 (edge)	0.03
Success rate	58% (edge)	54%
Dropback rate	41%	62%
Dropback efficiency (EPA/play)	0.27 (edge)	0.11
Rush efficiency (EPA/play)	0.04 (edge)	-0.12
Third downs	6/12 (edge)	4/11
Red-zone trips → TDs	0 → 0	0 → 0
Explosive plays (10+ rush / 20+ pass)	8	12 (edge)
First downs gained on snaps	23	23
Sacks taken	1 (edge)	3
Turnovers	1	1

Bears won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.14 expected points added per play vs 0.03.

Who moved the needle

Top performers

Passing · MIN

Kirk CousinsQB

24/35, 271 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT

3.2 expected points added · +9.6% completion over expected

Passing · CHI

Mitchell TrubiskyQB

15/21, 202 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT

4.9 expected points added · +6.1% completion over expected

Rushing · CHI

David MontgomeryRB

32 att, 146 yds, 2 TD

1.6 expected points added on the ground

Rushing · MIN

Dalvin CookRB

24 att, 132 yds, 1 TD

-2.4 expected points added on the ground

Receiving · MIN

Justin JeffersonWR

8/11 for 104 yds, 0 TD

37% of team targets · 5.2 expected points added

Receiving · CHI

Allen RobinsonWR

4/5 for 83 yds, 0 TD

24% of team targets · 5.5 expected points added

Possession by possession

Drive chart

#	Team	Start	Plays	Scrim yds	Clock	Result
1	CHI	CHI 39	5	5	1:49	Punt
2	MIN	MIN 12	4	4	2:03	Punt
3	CHI	CHI 42	6	58	2:07	Touchdown
4	MIN	MIN 25	10	75	4:15	Touchdown
5	CHI	CHI 25	9	51	3:30	Turnover on downs
6	MIN	MIN 25	7	14	2:11	Punt
7	CHI	CHI 24	14	76	7:19	Touchdown
8	MIN	MIN 25	5	9	0:59	Turnover on downs
9	CHI	MIN 34	6	17	2:13	Turnover on downs
10	MIN	MIN 25	13	64	3:08	Turnover on downs
11	CHI	CHI 25	2	3	0:26	End of half
12	MIN	MIN 25	10	61	4:06	Touchdown
13	CHI	CHI 25	13	75	5:24	Touchdown
14	MIN	MIN 25	8	71	2:52	Turnover on downs
15	CHI	CHI 28	9	42	4:05	Turnover on downs
16	MIN	MIN 25	13	63	5:28	Touchdown
17	CHI	CHI 29	10	65	5:08	Interception
18	MIN	MIN 20	4	9	1:03	Turnover on downs
19	CHI	MIN 29	4	5	0:58	Turnover on downs
20	MIN	MIN 30	7	37	0:56	Interception

0 of 20 drives ended in points. Longest march: Bears gained 76 scrimmage yards over 14 plays for a touchdown.

Full stat lines

Box score

Chicago Bears

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Mitchell Trubisky	15/21	202	1	1	1	4.9

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
David Montgomery	32	146	4.6	2	1.6
Mitchell Trubisky	8	34	4.3	0	1.5
Darnell Mooney	1	16	16.0	0	1.0
Cordarrelle Patterson	1	3	3.0	0	-0.3

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Allen Robinson	4	5	83	0	24%	5.5
Darnell Mooney	4	5	49	1	24%	3.7
Jimmy Graham	2	3	25	0	14%	0.9
David Montgomery	1	2	16	0	10%	0.8
Anthony Miller	1	1	13	0	5%	2.7
Cole Kmet	2	2	12	0	10%	0.6
Cordarrelle Patterson	1	1	4	0	5%	0.3
J.P. Holtz	0	1	0	0	5%	-5.1
Javon Wims	0	1	0	0	5%	-1.9

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Danny Trevathan	4	7	0.0	1
Eddie Jackson	5	2	0.0	1
Bilal Nichols	1	6	1.0	0
Duke Shelley	4	3	0.0	0
Roquan Smith	4	2	0.0	0
Kindle Vildor	4	1	0.0	0
John Jenkins	1	3	0.0	1
Khalil Mack	1	2	0.5	0
Kyle Fuller	3	0	0.0	0
Brent Urban	1	2	0.5	0

Minnesota Vikings

Passing

Player	C/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Sacked	EPA
Kirk Cousins	24/35	271	2	1	3	3.2

Rushing

Player	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	EPA
Dalvin Cook	24	132	5.5	1	-2.4
Kirk Cousins	3	25	8.3	0	1.3
Alexander Mattison	1	1	1.0	0	-0.5

Receiving

Player	Rec	Tgt	Yds	TD	Tgt share	EPA
Justin Jefferson	8	11	104	0	37%	5.2
Tyler Conklin	3	4	57	1	13%	1.2
Irv Smith	3	4	37	0	13%	1.3
Dalvin Cook	5	5	27	0	17%	0.5
Chad Beebe	2	2	21	0	7%	2.2
Alexander Mattison	1	1	14	0	3%	0.5
Adam Thielen	2	3	11	1	10%	2.0

Defense (top contributors)

Player	Solo	Ast	Sacks	PD
Eric Wilson	4	6	0.0	0
Todd Davis	4	4	1.0	1
Anthony Harris	4	3	0.0	0
Hercules Mata'afa	2	4	0.0	0
Jeff Gladney	4	2	0.0	0
Troy Dye	1	5	0.0	0
D.J. Wonnum	2	3	0.0	0
Jaleel Johnson	2	2	0.0	0
Chris Jones	3	0	0.0	0
Armon Watts	2	1	0.0	0

Closing number vs result

Betting context

Closing spread: MIN -2.5
Closing total: 47.5
CHI moneyline: +137
MIN moneyline: -152

Vikings closed -2.5 and lost outright — an upset against the closing number.

Total closed 47.5; the game landed 60 — over by 12.5.

Conditions and crew

Game environment

Venue: U.S. Bank Stadium
Roof / surface: dome · sportturf
Kickoff weather: Indoors — weather neutralized
Referee: Shawn Smith
Rest: CHI 7 days · MIN 7 days
Coaches: Matt Nagy vs Mike Zimmer

Division game — familiarity tightens these matchups; closing numbers tend to be sharper.