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DYNATYZE
DYNATYZE
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Game Center
polling · 1800s tick · as of 12:22 AM ET · 16 to play
Cleveland Browns 20, Giants 6 — with the result never quite settled.
It turned at Q1 5:37, 3rd and 6, on Darius Slayton — 9.6 win-probability points to the Giants on one snap, the largest move of the game, and it still was not enough.
The snaps that bent it
The biggest swing of the game · Q1 5:37 · 3rd and 6
Darius Slayton
Giants
(5:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass deep left to 86-D.Slayton ran ob at CLE 18 for 35 yards (29-S.Redwine).
Browns closed -6 and covered, winning by 14.
Cleveland Browns 20–6. Biggest swing: Q1 5:37, Giants +9.6% win probability on one snap.
9.6
win-probability points on one snap
The largest move of the game. The two below are drawn against it.
Baker MayfieldGiantsQ1 7:08(7:08) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 81-A.Hooper (97-D.Lawrence II).
8.2pts
Austin HooperBrownsQ2 12:36(12:36) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 81-A.Hooper for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
6.9pts
What separated them
Red zone
Browns won this one — 3 touchdowns on 3 trips, against Giants at 0 touchdowns on 3 trips.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Staying on schedule
Browns won this one — 54% of snaps stayed on schedule, against Giants at 38% of snaps stayed on schedule.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Throwing the ball
Browns won this one — +0.62 expected points per dropback, against Giants at +0.04 expected points per dropback.
Brownsthe gap went the way the scoreboard did
Third down
Browns won this one — 9 of 13 on third down, against Giants at 5 of 11 on third down.
2 other measures were inside a third of the league's own spread — two clubs doing the same thing, so they are not shown.
Drawn from the weekly play-by-play file, which paints on the Monday 4:00 AM ET sync after the game.
The model against the market, the momentum underneath, every drive — scrub to replay it
How the game was won
The model and the market were 13.1 win-probability points apart on the average play, and 31 apart at the widest — with the model the more convinced about Giants.
MarketModelmodel higher on Giantshigher on Browns140 of 150 plays carry both curves
(5:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass deep left to 86-D.Slayton ran ob at CLE 18 for 35 yards (29-S.Redwine).
Swing +9.6 for GiantsExpected points +3.43 for GiantsThe model had Giants 26 points higher than the market did.play 24
The solid line is the betting market's home win probability; the dashed line is the play-by-play model's. The shaded band between them is the disagreement — emerald where the model liked the home team more, red where it liked the away team more. Drag across the curve or use arrow keys to replay the game; gold diamonds mark the biggest swings.
Highest-leverage plays
1st · 5:37NYG +10% win prob(5:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass deep left to 86-D.Slayton ran ob at CLE 18 for 35 yards (29-S.Redwine).
1st · 7:08CLE +8% win prob(7:08) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 81-A.Hooper (97-D.Lawrence II).
2nd · 12:36NYG +7% win prob(12:36) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 81-A.Hooper for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
1st · 14:50NYG +6% win prob(14:50) 22-W.Gallman Jr. right guard to CLE 39 for 9 yards (29-S.Redwine; 39-T.Mitchell).
1st · 13:01NYG +5% win prob(13:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass deep left to 87-S.Shepard to CLE 13 for 22 yards (21-D.Ward; 29-S.Redwine). Penalty on CLE-95-M.Garrett, Defensive Offside, declined.
1st · 11:41CLE +5% win prob(11:41) (Field Goal formation) 9-R.Dixon pass incomplete short middle to 65-N.Gates.
SettledThe modelled figures are the league play-by-play model's, not ours.
How the points landed
The margin ledger
Austin Hooper's 2-yard touchdown catch with 12:36 left in the 2nd put Cleveland Browns ahead for good. The lead never changed over the 3 scores that followed.
Lead
1st4:17Graham Gano·37-yd field goal37-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap C.Kreiter+30–3
4th4:12Graham Gano·39-yd field goal39-yard field goalholder R.Dixon · snap C.Kreiter+320–6
5 scores · bar length is the lead after each one
Down-to-down truth
Situational splits
Brownscategory by categoryGiants
Browns7–0Giants
392Total yards289
6.2Yards per play5.5
54%Success rate38%
69%Third-down rate45%
3Red-zone touchdowns0
7Explosive plays6
24First downs14
1Sacks taken1
0Turnovers0
The read
Browns ahead 7–0 on categories, including the biggest gap of the duel — red-zone touchdowns.
Expected points added, per play
The centre line is an average play. A bar to the right of it is a side that gained more than the situation was worth; a bar to the left is a side that lost ground. All six bars share one scale, ±0.62 points.
Every snapexpected points added per play, all downs
+0.26Browns: +0.26 expected points added per play
−0.06Giants: −0.06 expected points added per play
Dropping backexpected points added per dropback
+0.62Browns: +0.62 expected points added per play
+0.04Giants: +0.04 expected points added per play
Running itexpected points added per rush
−0.19Browns: −0.19 expected points added per play
−0.25Giants: −0.25 expected points added per play
Neither side “wins” volume or play-calling mix, so neither is drawn as a duel: Browns ran 63 snaps at a 56% dropback rate against Giants’s 53 at 64%. Red-zone trips: Browns 3, Giants 3.
NoteBrowns won the down-to-down efficiency fight: 0.26 expected points added per play vs -0.06.
Derived from the play-by-play, no model
The Read
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor and were tested against four comparisons: this week's whole slate, the team's own season, the week before, and the team's own ordinary spread. Every bar below is set in that team's own week-to-week swing, never in league points — one team's swing runs 1.6 to 3.1 times the entire league's spread.
NYG's sack or hit rate, 2.9%, is past their previous low of 9.1% in week 14 — the lowest of their 14 charted games through week 15.
2.1 times their own weekly swing below their number.
35 dropbacks this game, floor 12 — 16 of their games behind the ruler, and their own week-to-week swing is 6.3 points.
The season-grain rooms, pointed at this one game
Was this normal for them?
7 of 8 readings cleared their snap floor. Every deviation below is measured in that team's own game-to-game swing, not in league points — because one game's swing runs from 1.6 to 3.1 times the whole league's spread.
their week-to-week swingall 32 teams
upper band = their week-to-week swing · lower rule = all 32 teams · scale -24 pts to 16 pts
right on their number · +0.5 vs their 11.3%, and they swing ±5.3 week to week (+0.09× that swing) · 34 dropbacks
Giants2.9%
off script — stayed blocked · −13.0 vs their 15.8%, and they swing ±6.3 week to week (−2.05× that swing) · 35 dropbacks
Play-action rate
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
Blitz rate sent
Charted from 2022. The columns exist for 2020 and are entirely empty, which is not a season of data.
NoteNYG's sack or hit rate was the night's one real departure: 2.9%, 13.0 points below their season mean of 15.8% and 2.1 times their own 6.3-point weekly swing.
The Game Day Roster
Who was out, who dressed and never took a snap, and who was on the field how much. Game-day list and snap counts from the weekly roster and snap feeds. Practice-squad and injured-reserve players are not shown — they were never on the game-day list.
Cleveland Browns
48 dressed · 6 inactive · 2 never used
75Joel BitonioG · Every snap100%64 snaps
71Jedrick WillsT · Every snap100%64 snaps
64J.C. TretterC · Every snap100%64 snaps
78Jack ConklinT · Every snap100%64 snaps
6Baker MayfieldQB · Every snap100%64 snaps
53Nick HarrisC · Full-time97%62 snaps
82Rashard HigginsWR · Heavy rotation73%47 snaps
80Jarvis LandryWR · Heavy rotation70%45 snaps
81Austin HooperTE · Heavy rotation70%45 snaps
24Nick ChubbRB · Heavy rotation59%38 snaps
11Donovan Peoples-JonesWR · Heavy rotation56%36 snaps
85David NjokuTE · Rotational48%31 snaps
88Harrison BryantTE · Rotational47%30 snaps
27Kareem HuntRB · Rotational33%21 snaps
31Andy JanovichFB · Situational19%12 snaps
12Khadarel HodgeWR · Situational13%8 snaps
30D'Ernest JohnsonRB · Situational8%5 snaps
70Kendall LammT · Situational3%2 snaps
74Christopher HubbardT · Situational3%2 snaps
Inactive · 6
Robert JacksonCBJoe JacksonDEAndrew SendejoFSWyatt TellerGMack WilsonOLBMarvin HallWR
Snap, route and expected-points data starts in 2021. This game is older than the usage record, so there is no opportunity read for it — the box score above is the complete picture we hold.
The field map
Every snap, where it happened
The whole game as one hundred yards. The Giants attack right, the Browns attack left, so a change of possession is a reversal you can see. Reading down is the order the snaps were played — not the clock, so a two-minute drill gets the same room as any other fourteen snaps. This game is final.
Browns←Giants→
Q1Q2Q3Q4
C.McCoy pass+12% win probabilitymoment 2 of 4
(5:37) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-C.McCoy pass deep left to 86-D.Slayton ran ob at CLE 18 for 35 yards (29-S.Redwine).
Q1 5:37 · Giants · 3rd & 6 at NYG 47 · gained 35 · +3.43 EP · +11.9% win probability
138 snaps placed · 12 without a recorded yard line, left off the map · 4 marked moments — the largest win-probability swings, one per drive.
The Film Room · post-game
Post-game film: 150 plays across 15 drives, personnel groupings on 150 snaps. Everything here paints once the weekly sync ingests the game — there is no live play-level feed in this product, so nothing on this page updates while a game is being played.
Possession by possession
The field rail
5 of 15 drives ended in points. The longest march was CLE moving 95 yards from the CLE 5 for a touchdown. Each bar is the ground a drive actually covered; NYG attacks right, CLE attacks left. Hatching marks a trip inside the twenty.
Every snap
Play stream
150 of 150 plays
Team
Quarter
Down
Play type
Expected points added
Event
Charted
Plays shown
150
EPA per play
+0.06
Success rate
42%
Yards
680
Who was on the field
Personnel groupings
Offensive grouping on every pass and run. A group needs five snaps in this game before it gets a number — under that the sample is a coin flip and the cell reads a dash instead. The names of the eleven on the field are only recorded from 2023 onward, so this game gives the grouping without the roster.
Giants1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR31-0.0381%
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR28+0.2857%
Browns1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR13+0.3162%
Browns1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR10+0.0450%
Giants1 RB, 3 TE, 1 WR8+0.1638%
Giants1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR6-0.2550%
Giants2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR6-0.040%
Browns2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR5+0.1360%
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 1 WR3——
Browns2 RB, 3 TE, 0 WR2——
Giants0 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
Browns1 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Giants2 RB, 1 TE, 2 WR1——
Browns2 RB, 2 TE, 0 WR1——
snapsepapass rate
150 plays · ranked by the win probability each one moved
Every play
Ball
When
Play
Only
Who
150 plays
Bar length is win probability the play moved
1st quarter37 plays
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Browns 48 to the Browns 8
Turnover on downs10 plays, from the Browns 8 to the Giants 43
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsRoute runGoCoverageCover 3, three deepMan or zoneZoneIn the boxSix defendersRushing the passerFourPressure (charted)The passer was pressuredTime to throw2.3 seconds
Browns0Giants3
Field goal7 plays, from the Giants 43 to the Browns 18
The period ended9 plays, from the Browns 25 to the Giants 38
2nd quarter38 plays
Browns6Giants3
Browns7Giants3
Touchdown8 plays, from the Giants 16 to the Giants 2
FormationShotgunOffense on the fieldOne back, one tight end and three receiversDefense on the fieldFour linemen, two linebackers and five backsIn the boxEight defenders
Turnover on downs13 plays, from the Giants 27 to the Browns 6
Browns13Giants3
Touchdown14 plays, from the Browns 5 to the Giants 2
The period ended3 plays
3rd quarter27 plays
Punt6 plays, from the Browns 21 to the Browns 39
Punt10 plays, from the Giants 14 to the Browns 44
The period ended11 plays, from the Browns 5 to the Giants 16
4th quarter48 plays
Browns19Giants3
Browns20Giants3
Touchdown7 plays, from the Giants 12 to the Giants 1
Punt8 plays, from the Giants 25 to the Giants 40
Punt8 plays, from the Browns 46 to the Giants 35
Browns20Giants6
Field goal9 plays, from the Giants 23 to the Browns 21
Punt11 plays, from the Browns 41 to the Giants 34
The period ended5 plays, from the Giants 20 to the Giants 41
Win probability is the league play-by-play model, 98.5% of plays · a dash means none was published
